Try out this spreadsheet and tell me

[AUEng84 0]

It is loaded with the final statistic rankings for 2004 and is used to back-predict the results of all the games in the 2004 season.

I plan to use these settings to predict games this coming fall.

Try it and see what you think.

2004 Prediction Spreadsheet

You will need MS Excel.

[tigereyes 19]

If I could figure out how to use it that it would be awesome. You spent some time on that.

[AFTiger 282]

I hope you got class credit for this.....it is impressive. If you didn't get credit, get a job.

However just as in associative statistics, using past performance to predict the future never accounts for current changes. Kinda like projecting a blue sky economy just as the business cycle begins its descent.

BTW, no way we would have lost to Oklahoma.

[AUTIGERinSC 69]

Hey 84.. Great Job..

Is the 66% ATS using the end of the year stats or as the season progressed.

My sheet can hit 70% ATS historically but thats using 'years end' stats for each game in that year. And we all know early stats dont represent a team too well since most stats are for games against Patsies. But it works well come bowl season. Of course lines get tighter near the end too.

I'll send you mine once the season kicks off.

[AUEng84 0]

Hey 84.. Great Job..

Is the 66% ATS using the end of the year stats or as the season progressed.

My sheet can hit 70% ATS historically but thats using 'years end' stats for each game in that year. And we all know early stats dont represent a team too well since most stats are for games against Patsies.  But it works well come bowl season. Of course lines get tighter near the end too.

I'll send you mine once the season kicks off.

173655[/snapback]

Yep, mine has all of the stats loaded for the entire year and is back-predicted. I sure don't expect it to do near that well in forecasting results, but it should do a good job.

This will only be the second year I have tried to use it so I still am not sure if I have the scale factors correct or not. But it does do a good job on the Bowl Games and that is with only one less game of stats than you would normally have AND those teams are supposed to be evenly matched (i.e. you don't have patsies)

[DKW 86 7,441]

FYI, AUENG84 is an ITAT Regular and I think he is WE57's Dad?

Thanks for the link too, BTW.