Kenpom Ranking as a Champion Predictor

[AU Is Gold 410]

The last 17 of the 21 NCAA tournament champions have all been ranked #4 or better pre-tourney in the Kenpom rankings. As of now, Auburn currently sits at #4. Analytically, this may be Pearl's best Auburn team. 

[NCAubs 377]

2 hours ago, AU Is Gold said:

The last 17 of the 21 NCAA tournament champions have all been ranked #4 or better pre-tourney in the Kenpom rankings. As of now, Auburn currently sits at #4. Analytically, this may be Pearl's best Auburn team. 

Is that ranking at any point or right before the tournament?

[AU Is Gold 410]

11 minutes ago, NCAubs said:

Is that ranking at any point or right before the tournament?

The stat I'm referring to are the rankings right before the tournament begins. Unless you pay for KenPom, you will only see the rankings by year after the tournament is over. 

Edit: You can also see the current rankings of course. 

Edited January 11 by AU Is Gold

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,686]

I still don't want to believe we're THAT good yet, but when I see 4 out of the top 5 lose in two days, and we just had a year where 3 out of the final 4 were 5 seeds or worse, I mean....

 

We just REALLY need one more bonafide scorer out of the guard group. I think one of Jaylin/Johni will be scoring most games. I think one of Chad/KD will be scoring most games. I don't necessarily want Tre to be a scorer as that's not him, but we aren't getting enough scoring punch out of the Tre/Aden/Denver trifecta. The offensive metrics being as good as they are with the up and down scoring we've gotten from that bunch (and zero from CMo/Chaney) is honestly jaw dropping to think about 

[AU Is Gold 410]

52 minutes ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

I still don't want to believe we're THAT good yet, but when I see 4 out of the top 5 lose in two days, and we just had a year where 3 out of the final 4 were 5 seeds or worse, I mean....

 

We just REALLY need one more bonafide scorer out of the guard group. I think one of Jaylin/Johni will be scoring most games. I think one of Chad/KD will be scoring most games. I don't necessarily want Tre to be a scorer as that's not him, but we aren't getting enough scoring punch out of the Tre/Aden/Denver trifecta. The offensive metrics being as good as they are with the up and down scoring we've gotten from that bunch (and zero from CMo/Chaney) is honestly jaw dropping to think about 

Yeah I'm not holding my breath. But it's truly nice to see from an unbiased accurate system like Kenpom to finally have Auburn at the top at least for now. 

I would like to see KD and someone else take more opportunities driving to the basket during the dead periods after the big Auburn runs. There's a specific basketball mindset you have to have if you want to finish teams off. We don't have that yet. 

As of now, we are projected to lose 4 SEC games and are underdogs only to away Alabama and away Tennessee. 

[mustache eagle 2,410]

15 hours ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

I still don't want to believe we're THAT good yet, but when I see 4 out of the top 5 lose in two days, and we just had a year where 3 out of the final 4 were 5 seeds or worse, I mean....

 

We just REALLY need one more bonafide scorer out of the guard group. I think one of Jaylin/Johni will be scoring most games. I think one of Chad/KD will be scoring most games. I don't necessarily want Tre to be a scorer as that's not him, but we aren't getting enough scoring punch out of the Tre/Aden/Denver trifecta. The offensive metrics being as good as they are with the up and down scoring we've gotten from that bunch (and zero from CMo/Chaney) is honestly jaw dropping to think about 

Going back to last year I felt like our overall success depends on Broome.  I’ve been thrilled with how cbm, KD, jwill, Aden, card and tre have played … but I think our next step “up” depends on Denver doing what he was brought here to do … shoot 40% from 3 with 3-4 makes per game and a few FT’s made from forcing some fouls going to the hoop every now and again.  I hope he settles in and finds some consistency 

[mustache eagle 2,410]

27 minutes ago, mustache eagle said:

Going back to last year I felt like our overall success depends on Broome.  I’ve been thrilled with how cbm, KD, jwill, Aden, card and tre have played … but I think our next step “up” depends on Denver doing what he was brought here to do … shoot 40% from 3 with 3-4 makes per game and a few FT’s made from forcing some fouls going to the hoop every now and again.  I hope he settles in and finds some consistency 

I might have to adjust my numbers a smidge.  40% with 3-4 makes is 7-10 attempts.  Not sure that is realistic.  If he’s making that percentage maybe he’ll get those attempts.  Guess I’m hoping against hope that we can get more production from him from the 3.

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,686]

42 minutes ago, mustache eagle said:

Going back to last year I felt like our overall success depends on Broome.  I’ve been thrilled with how cbm, KD, jwill, Aden, card and tre have played … but I think our next step “up” depends on Denver doing what he was brought here to do … shoot 40% from 3 with 3-4 makes per game and a few FT’s made from forcing some fouls going to the hoop every now and again.  I hope he settles in and finds some consistency 

I think it’s a lot more than Denver, but it definitely hurts to have 3/5 starters do absolutely nothing in terms of going to the rim on the nights where we can’t buy a 3. Denver does more defensively than Aden, so I don’t want to make a post where it seems like I’m absolving him of blame while only giving it to Denver. That being said, Denver is like a senior and Aden is…19? so I can see why someone would want to give him a lot more blame. 

[WarTiger 3,913]

15 hours ago, AU Is Gold said:

Yeah I'm not holding my breath. But it's truly nice to see from an unbiased accurate system like Kenpom to finally have Auburn at the top at least for now. 

I would like to see KD and someone else take more opportunities driving to the basket during the dead periods after the big Auburn runs. There's a specific basketball mindset you have to have if you want to finish teams off. We don't have that yet. 

As of now, we are projected to lose 4 SEC games and are underdogs only to away Alabama and away Tennessee. 

Really?   You do realize we've won 8 straight by double digits right?  Closest being the A&M game Tuesday.  Seems to me we're finishing teams off pretty well.   Granted A&M was closer down the stretch than the final score indicates, but its still a double digit win.

[mustache eagle 2,410]

3 hours ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

I think it’s a lot more than Denver, but it definitely hurts to have 3/5 starters do absolutely nothing in terms of going to the rim on the nights where we can’t buy a 3. Denver does more defensively than Aden, so I don’t want to make a post where it seems like I’m absolving him of blame while only giving it to Denver. That being said, Denver is like a senior and Aden is…19? so I can see why someone would want to give him a lot more blame. 

Didn’t really know what to expect from Denver but he’s more athletic than I expected (I don’t know why I didn’t give him the benefit) and his defense is better sooner.  Same goes for cbm’s D.  Well heck, the overall team D is further along than I thought at this time - and I don’t really know squat 

[AU Is Gold 410]

5 hours ago, WarTiger said:

Really?   You do realize we've won 8 straight by double digits right?  Closest being the A&M game Tuesday.  Seems to me we're finishing teams off pretty well.   Granted A&M was closer down the stretch than the final score indicates, but its still a double digit win.

I haven't seen it yet. Outside of just the final scores, if a team is actually successful scoring against us there won't be double digit wins. I guess we will see how Auburn reacts more down the line in the SEC. I would like to see more games like Arkansas. 

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,686]

2 hours ago, mustache eagle said:

Didn’t really know what to expect from Denver but he’s more athletic than I expected (I don’t know why I didn’t give him the benefit) and his defense is better sooner.  Same goes for cbm’s D.  Well heck, the overall team D is further along than I thought at this time - and I don’t really know squat 

Think he had the highest vertical on the team. He’s an athlete, but it doesn’t mean much (offensively) when he refuses to drive hard to the rim or really do much driving at all. I talked to someone else in the game thread about this, so I’m beating a dead horse, but he has the physical tools to be much much better than he has. Let’s hope that works out!

https://www.al.com/auburnbasketball/2023/10/auburn-mens-basketball-hosts-28-nba-teams-at-pro-day-here-are-the-notes-quotes-and-numbers.html?outputType=amp