Attrition and the road traveled

[StatTiger 3,188]

For the sake of this topic, attrition will simply be defined by a recruit that never played a single game as an Auburn Tiger regardless of the reason.

It has been a while since the poor attrition rate during Tommy Tuberville's last few recruiting classes were discussed but there was certainly some long-term effects carried over into the Gene Chizik era. After the 2003 "Jetgate" incident, Tuberville's relationship with the Administration and some boosters would never be the same. Despite building a National Championship caliber team the following year, there were certain individuals that wanted Tuberville gone. Not having everyone on the same page with the same visions and goals would end up hurting the Auburn football program in the long run. In the end, Tuberville was competing with more than the competition within the Southeastern Conference. This is not to say that Tuberville did not have faults of his own but not having everyone pulling and pushing in the same direction would cripple any athletic program. It appears the same scenario is playing out with Coach Les Miles of LSU.

From 2002-2005, Auburn experienced an attrition rate of 18%. Seven of the players on the attrition rate were DL. Of the remaining recruits that suited up for the Tigers, 57.3% made it onto the field at least 30 times. This was good news for the 2004, 2005 and 2006 teams that were loaded with experience. If you recall the previous data, I have posted about having at least 20 players with 20 games of experience and at least 10 of them having 30 or more games of experience. The 2004, 2005 and 2006 teams possessed this level of experience, compiling a record of 33-5. Auburn needed this experience because only 28% of the 82 remaining players from 2002-2005 were rated as 4 or 5-star players. Experience and development were a must for that 3-year run from 2004-2006, which Tuberville's staff should be credited for. It was fortunate the same offensive coordinator was in place those 3 seasons and Tuberville was present to oversee the changes at defensive coordinator to provide stability and consistency despite the DC changes. Tuberville's staff did an exceptional job of developing players during his tenure at Auburn. Of the 77 players recruited from 2002-2008 that went onto to play in 30 games ore more, 53 were rated as 3-stars or less. Forty-two of the players coached under Tuberbille would end up drafted into the NFL, not counting the many who went onto sign free-agent contracts with NFL teams.

From 2006-2009, Auburn experienced an attrition rate of 36%. This equated to the loss of nearly two recruiting classes. Fourteen of those players on the attrition list were DL. Of the remaining 71 players signed from 2006-2009, 59.1% suited up for the Tigers at least 30 times. Once again, this was good for the 2010 Auburn Tigers that benefited from having an experienced roster. Auburn cashed in on this experience for a National Championship but the attrition rate was so bad, the next two years (2011-2012) would suffer from a lack of experience. The JUCO signing of Cameron Newton was the final piece the 2010 experienced roster needed to win it all. Many of the significant contributors on the 2010 Auburn roster were players recruited by Tommy Tuberville's staff, leaving his fingerprints on two undefeated Auburn teams that decade. Of the players that suited up for Auburn from this recruiting groups, 39.4% were rated as 4-5 stars. The attrition rate of the 14 DL also might explain some of the defensive issues Auburn experienced following 2008.

Regarding the long time effect, most of the damage likely lasted through the 2012 season. This was probably the reason why Gus Malzahn's staff was able to get the most of the 2013 team which was loaded with experience and talent. Like the 2004, 2005 and 2006 squads, Auburn had an experienced roster going into 2013. The recruitment of Nick Marshall and adjustment of the offense to match his skill set ended up being a great move because a good quarterback was needed to make a championship run.

From 2010-2014 Auburn experienced an attrition rate of 15.3%. Of the remaining 105 players that suited up, 51.1% were rated as 4-5 star talent but only 29.5% have suited up 30 or more times. It should be noted that there are 25 players still on the roster that could max the remaining players to 53.3%. However, it was the primary reason Auburn was the youngest team in the SEC in 2015 in terms of having at least 20 players with 20 games of experience and at least ten players with 30 games of experience. I stated before the 2015 season began, this would be the most talented team Auburn has fielded in a very long time, but they would have to overcome the lack of experience. This was part of the reason why this team slipped to 8-5 in 2014 and 7-6 in 2015. The 2016 roster should be close to the "20-30" rule but not quite there. Losing Shon Coleman and Avery Young early will dent the experience level. Regarding players lost to attrition from 2010-2014, ten of the nineteen lost were 5 WR's and 5 OL. It appears the current staff is attempting to address a major need at the WR position with the 2016 class.

Finally, we come to player evaluation and development. After three seasons, I don't believe there is enough data to gauge honestly player assessment and development. The evaluation might be stable because of the minimal attrition rate, but it isn't a given just yet. The defense is now going through their third defensive coordinator in 4 seasons, which likely affects development to some degree. I do believe this why Gus Malzahn targeted Kevin Steele as the new DC because it appears Steele actually wants to be at Auburn and doesn't seem to have major aspirations of becoming a head coach. Should he become successful, the defense should show signs of consistency, which would be great news.

The key on the offensive side of the football will be Gus Malzahn's direction of the offense. For long term success, the head coach must have a vision and plan for the type of team he wants to field. Everything is built upon this concept regarding the growth of the program. Constant change will stunt the growth, which will result in mixed results from year to year. There will always be times when adjustments must be made due to injuries or unforeseen events, but the primary "blueprint" will make those changes a much easier transition. Malzahn also needs the full support of the Administration to build a program which produces consistently. The recent upgrades to the athletic facilities is a good start because the competition around the conference are going full scale to make their Universities more appealing to future recruits.

[NorthGATiger 1,801]

Good read. It is funny because I was just looking at our 13', 14' & 15' classes. Looking back now at who panned out and who did not our 13 and 14 classes were very weak in my opinion. 15 compared to 13 and 14 looks to be a good class but time will tell.

[cooltigger21 0]

Thanks for putting this together Stat. It's always very informative and helps to understand how things go the way they do.

[AU64 10,122]

Thanks for the detail work on the issue of attrition which IMO is major problem even today.

By limiting the definition to players who never played a down, I think the problem is understated....considering the number of players in recent recruiting classes who ended up being "one and done" plus the premature ejaculation of players leaving before their eligibility was used....and I'm talking players who are/were marginal NFL prospects when they departed and a few like Duke and a few others who technically played 2 seasons.

I've looked at the 2013 and 2014 class which should be the heart of our team now and find that something like 40% are gone now for various reasons. Looking further back to 2012, that class was a disaster IMO...only 6 or 7 started a meaningful number of games in their careers....though perhaps I'm expecting too much.

I know the coaches can't tie these guys down....but watching guys leave whose best hope is a free agent opportunity is really discouraging as most were just reaching their potential....and boom,...they are gone before they can use it for Auburn. And worse still as you have noted, some positions have been hit harder than others.

So...is this issue caused by poor player evaluation, poor leadership at the team level where loyalty to the team and Auburn never develops.....or what?

[AUbritt 611]

Great post, stat!

Given that we're almost there in terms of experience next season, do you have a projection of how we might do? A way too early projection, obviously....

[StatTiger 3,188]

Thanks for the detail work on the issue of attrition which IMO is major problem even today.

By limiting the definition to players who never played a down, I think the problem is understated....considering the number of players in recent recruiting classes who ended up being "one and done" plus the premature ejaculation of players leaving before their eligibility was used....and I'm talking players who are/were marginal NFL prospects when they departed and a few like Duke and a few others who technically played 2 seasons.

I've looked at the 2013 and 2014 class which should be the heart of our team now and find that something like 40% are gone now for various reasons. Looking further back to 2012, that class was a disaster IMO...only 6 or 7 started a meaningful number of games in their careers....though perhaps I'm expecting too much.

I know the coaches can't tie these guys down....but watching guys leave whose best hope is a free agent opportunity is really discouraging as most were just reaching their potential....and boom,...they are gone before they can use it for Auburn. And worse still as you have noted, some positions have been hit harder than others.

So...is this issue caused by poor player evaluation, poor leadership at the team level where loyalty to the team and Auburn never develops.....or what?

I remember Dye stating that if you got great contribution from 10-15 guys per class, you were doing okay. From 2002-2014, 52.5% of the players signed have been on the field in at least 20 games during their career. This doesn't include late transfers like Blake Countess.

[AU64 10,122]

Thanks for the detail work on the issue of attrition which IMO is major problem even today.

By limiting the definition to players who never played a down, I think the problem is understated....considering the number of players in recent recruiting classes who ended up being "one and done" plus the premature ejaculation of players leaving before their eligibility was used....and I'm talking players who are/were marginal NFL prospects when they departed and a few like Duke and a few others who technically played 2 seasons.

I've looked at the 2013 and 2014 class which should be the heart of our team now and find that something like 40% are gone now for various reasons. Looking further back to 2012, that class was a disaster IMO...only 6 or 7 started a meaningful number of games in their careers....though perhaps I'm expecting too much.

I know the coaches can't tie these guys down....but watching guys leave whose best hope is a free agent opportunity is really discouraging as most were just reaching their potential....and boom,...they are gone before they can use it for Auburn. And worse still as you have noted, some positions have been hit harder than others.

So...is this issue caused by poor player evaluation, poor leadership at the team level where loyalty to the team and Auburn never develops.....or what?

I remember Dye stating that if you got great contribution from 10-15 guys per class, you were doing okay. From 2002-2014, 52.5% of the players signed have been on the field in at least 20 games during their career. This doesn't include late transfers like Blake Countess.

That was probably true back in the day when guys almost never left early and the odds you could get a couple years from. As much as I appreciate what Countess did for the team...he's gone now...after one season and I just don't see how a team can develop unity with one and done players....whether they be grads or Jucos.

And back to the classes of 2012-2014....if would have been nice to reach Dye's goal of "great contribution from 10-15" because we've been far short of that lately.

Maybe it's the times ....but the corollary to his comment indicates that failure to achieve that level participation is a very bad sign....especially when it happens several years in a row.

[StatTiger 3,188]

That was probably true back in the day when guys almost never left early and the odds you could get a couple years from. As much as I appreciate what Countess did for the team...he's gone now...after one season and I just don't see how a team can develop unity with one and done players....whether they be grads or Jucos.

And back to the classes of 2012-2014....if would have been nice to reach Dye's goal of "great contribution from 10-15" because we've been far short of that lately.

Maybe it's the times ....but the corollary to his comment indicates that failure to achieve that level participation is a very bad sign....especially when it happens several years in a row.

It was a comment he made referring to recruiting within this decade.

[NoALtiger 3,859]

Excellent job Stat, as always. This post was particularly informative.

[NorthGATiger 1,801]

In an effort to not call any players out I see the 13 class as follows

N= Never contributed to any quality time

P=Played but that so far has not done anything special

Q= Quality player that really helped the team

DNQ= Did not qualify

I call it like this

N=9

P=6

Q=7

D=2

2013 Class

Mackenro AlexanderMackenro Alexander

S 91 6'0" 195

Immokalee HS

Jason SmithJason Smith

WR 32 6'1" 172

McGill-Toolen HS

Mobile, AL

Montravius AdamsMontravius Adams

DT 3 6'3" 300

Dooly County HS

Vienna, GA

Elijah DanielElijah Daniel

DE 9 6'3" 260

Avon HS

Avon, IN

Johnathan FordJohnathan Ford

RB 35 5'11" 200

New Hope HS

New Hope, AL

Deon MixDeon Mix

OG 39 6'4" 315

South Panola HS

Batesville, MS

Carl LawsonCarl Lawson

DE 7 6'2" 255

Milton HS

Alpharetta, GA

Peyton BarberPeyton Barber

RB 52 5'11" 222

Milton HS

Alpharetta, GA

Marcus DavisMarcus Davis

CB 95 5'9" 170

American Heritage School

Delray Beach, FL

Dominic WalkerDominic Walker

WR 77 6'1" 211

Evans HS

Orlando, FL

NR

Kenny FlowersKenny Flowers

MLB 6'2" 230

Hutchinson

Tony StevensTony Stevens

WR 21 6'3" 185 4.56

Evans HS

Orlando, FL

Khari HardingKhari Harding

S 43 6'2" 210

Santa Fe HS

Edmond, OK

Nick MarshallNick Marshall

QB 6'3" 200

Garden City

Ben BradleyBen Bradley

DT 6'3" 314

Hutchinson

Brandon KingBrandon King

S 6'2" 220

Highland

Devonte DanzeyDevonte Danzey

OG 6'4" 285

Hutchinson

Cameron Artis-PayneCameron Artis-Payne

RB 5'11" 215

Allan Hancock

Daniel CarlsonDaniel Carlson

K 4 6'5" 190

The Classical Academy

Colorado Springs, CO

Jeremy JohnsonJeremy Johnson

QB 24 6'6" 210

Carver Senior HS

Montgomery, AL

Cameron ToneyCameron Toney

MLB 23 6'2.5" 225

Huntsville HS

Huntsville, AL

Kamryn MeltonKamryn Melton

CB 47 5'11" 176

Dothan HS

Dothan, AL

Earnest RobinsonEarnest Robinson

WR 91 6'3" 196

Pinson Valley HS

Pinson, AL

Jimmy HutchinsonJimmy Hutchinson

P 1 6'2" 175

Harrison HS

Kennesaw, GA

[fredst 9,064]

Thanks for the detail work on the issue of attrition which IMO is major problem even today.

By limiting the definition to players who never played a down, I think the problem is understated....considering the number of players in recent recruiting classes who ended up being "one and done" plus the premature ejaculation of players leaving before their eligibility was used....and I'm talking players who are/were marginal NFL prospects when they departed and a few like Duke and a few others who technically played 2 seasons.

I've looked at the 2013 and 2014 class which should be the heart of our team now and find that something like 40% are gone now for various reasons. Looking further back to 2012, that class was a disaster IMO...only 6 or 7 started a meaningful number of games in their careers....though perhaps I'm expecting too much.

I know the coaches can't tie these guys down....but watching guys leave whose best hope is a free agent opportunity is really discouraging as most were just reaching their potential....and boom,...they are gone before they can use it for Auburn. And worse still as you have noted, some positions have been hit harder than others.

So...is this issue caused by poor player evaluation, poor leadership at the team level where loyalty to the team and Auburn never develops.....or what?

If premature ejaculation is something we are spending time addressing at practice, in team meetings, etc. I now know why our program is trending downward the last two years. Focus on football guys......

[AUIH1 1,515]

Interesting info as usual Stat. Thanks

wde

[StatTiger 3,188]

Interesting info as usual Stat. Thanks

wde

I realize there are other contributing factors regarding Auburn's travels since 2008 but I focused on the recruiting aspect since "Football Christmas" is right around the corner.

[AU64 10,122]

Interesting info as usual Stat. Thanks

wde

I realize there are other contributing factors regarding Auburn's travels since 2008 but I focused on the recruiting aspect since "Football Christmas" is right around the corner.

So meanwhile...how is your health.....do I recall that you had some problem that had you home bound?

[StatTiger 3,188]

Interesting info as usual Stat. Thanks

wde

I realize there are other contributing factors regarding Auburn's travels since 2008 but I focused on the recruiting aspect since "Football Christmas" is right around the corner.

So meanwhile...how is your health.....do I recall that you had some problem that had you home bound?

Thanks for asking.... I had neck surgery. My C-7 disc ruptured and was playing havoc on my spinal column. Had issues with it back in 2011 but worked it out with a spinal epidural and physical therapy. I wasn't so lucky this time.

I hope to be full speed for Spring Practice.

[AU64 10,122]

Interesting info as usual Stat. Thanks

wde

I realize there are other contributing factors regarding Auburn's travels since 2008 but I focused on the recruiting aspect since "Football Christmas" is right around the corner.

So meanwhile...how is your health.....do I recall that you had some problem that had you home bound?

Thanks for asking.... I had neck surgery. My C-7 disc ruptured and was playing havoc on my spinal column. Had issues with it back in 2011 but worked it out with a spinal epidural and physical therapy. I wasn't so lucky this time.

I hope to be full speed for Spring Practice.

Hope the recovery goes well...meanwhile looks like we are the beneficiary of your boredom with all the statistical studies you've been able to share with us.

[StatTiger 3,188]

Hope the recovery goes well...meanwhile looks like we are the beneficiary of your boredom with all the statistical studies you've been able to share with us.

Thanks... I've been out of work for almost 4 weeks and likely 6 more to go. It has given me time to update some 1600 data files from this past college season.

[keesler 5,924]

Thanks for the info Stat. You mention LSU and Les Miles are most definitely at odds but Les just pulled on of the top DCs and looks to possibly haul in a top 5 recruiting class too. So while the Administration may be pulling in a different direction, ole Les is grinding.

[AU-24 3,071]

Thanks for the info, a very good read and prayers for a speedy recovery.

I do miss these days: Of the 77 players recruited from 2002-2008 that went onto to play in 30 games ore more, 53 were rated as 3-stars or less. Forty-two of the players coached under Tuberbille would end up drafted into the NFL, not counting the many who went onto sign free-agent contracts with NFL teams.

[AuburnNTexas 7,142]

Thanks for the info and Praying for a quick complete recovery from the surgery.

[JayH4AU 1]

Stat, For the past year of reading on AUFamily, (and a few weeks now of being a member), I've wondered. How do you pile up and put together all of these statistical analysis'. It always amazes me almost every time I read one. Most of this stuff I have never even thought of! How do you do it and find all of this info? Also, best wishes on the recovery! WDE

[Mikey 16,581]

Thanks for the detail work on the issue of attrition which IMO is major problem even today.

By limiting the definition to players who never played a down, I think the problem is understated....considering the number of players in recent recruiting classes who ended up being "one and done" plus the premature ejaculation of players leaving before their eligibility was used....and I'm talking players who are/were marginal NFL prospects when they departed and a few like Duke and a few others who technically played 2 seasons.

I've looked at the 2013 and 2014 class which should be the heart of our team now and find that something like 40% are gone now for various reasons. Looking further back to 2012, that class was a disaster IMO...only 6 or 7 started a meaningful number of games in their careers....though perhaps I'm expecting too much.

I know the coaches can't tie these guys down....but watching guys leave whose best hope is a free agent opportunity is really discouraging as most were just reaching their potential....and boom,...they are gone before they can use it for Auburn. And worse still as you have noted, some positions have been hit harder than others.

So...is this issue caused by poor player evaluation, poor leadership at the team level where loyalty to the team and Auburn never develops.....or what?

If premature ejaculation is something we are spending time addressing at practice, in team meetings, etc. I now know why our program is trending downward the last two years. Focus on football guys......

It appears that you and i are the only two that read AU64's entire post.

[doc4aday 1,887]

Thanks for the hard work. I do not have the patience to even think about doing anything of this detailed precision. As much as I enjoy goofing around, I have a serious side and try to study and grasp information of this nature as best as I can.

I hope that you will have a full recovery and can get back to work as soon as you can. I think in a few years, we will be able to look back at the 2016 class and appreciate the SEC and NC they will be a part of during the time at Auburn.

[WarTim 3,456]

Hope the recovery goes well...meanwhile looks like we are the beneficiary of your boredom with all the statistical studies you've been able to share with us. :thumbsup:/>

Thanks... I've been out of work for almost 4 weeks and likely 6 more to go. It has given me time to update some 1600 data files from this past college season.

Thanks for all you do Stat. As always, your insight and effort here is second to none. May God bless you with a full and speedy recovery my Brother. All the best !!!

[oracle79 3,569]

That's actually some encouraging info if we can keep some consistency with defensive coaching staff, and if Gus decides on an offensive identity with a specific type of QB. Might not be much better next year, but from then on if we continue with what we've done, it looks pretty promising.