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Who won the debate?

TexasTiger

By TexasTiger
in Political Smack Talk

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TitanTiger Founding Father

TitanTiger 20,479

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It wasn't terribly enlightening from either, but she was at least coherent even if I don't always agree or believe her. Trump's best moments were hammering her in trade deals. 

One of the commentators said it wasn't a knockout but he'd give the match to her on points. That's probably about right. 

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homersapien Founding Father

homersapien 11,370

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I think the Donald revealed himself for what he his - a narcissistic psychopath that is cynically playing on fear and resentment.

Some of those that had me laughing.  I understand why Lester Holt would try to cut him off, but I bet the Clinton folks were wanting him to keep running.  I sure did.

If America elects this baffoon, we deserve him.

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AUUSN Founding Father

AUUSN 823

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Oh, here we go...

Republican nominee Donald J. Trump complained in the spin room that his debate mic wasn't working right, according to a video posted by a CBS journalist.

"They gave me a defective mic!" he told reporters. " wonder, was that on purpose?"



Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/donald-trump-microphone-debate-228754#ixzz4LRscFxox 
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook

 
 

 
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Newbomb Founding Father

Newbomb 193

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Michael Moore Says Trump ‘Won’ The Debate

Michael Moore appeared frustrated on Twitter following the presidential debate, saying Donald Trump “won” and “we all lost.”

The 62-year-old filmmaker warned “pro-Hillary gloaters” against celebrating over how Hillary Clinton did in the debate against the Republican nominee and insisted nothing she did changed things. 

“Pro-Hillary gloaters doing end-zone dance again when still on 50-yd line,” Moore tweeted. “You must get it in your head Trump is gonna win and act accordingly!”

“If you just turn off the TV right now and do nothing, you’ve just elected Donald Trump,” he added. “Do something! Plan what you’re going to do tomorrow.”

“It’s over. Trump, the egoist, the racist, the narcissist, the liar, ‘won,'” he continued. “We all lost. His numbers will go up. ”

“She told the truth. So what.”

Moore spent most of the night pleading with Clinton to “pull out the long knives” against Trump or else lose the election. (RELATED: Michael Moore: ‘Trump Is Going To Win)

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TitanTiger Founding Father

TitanTiger 20,479

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Speaking of fact checks:Facebook

 

Quote

 

NBC News and our friends at PolitiFact fact checked the first presidential debate. Here's what we found.

  1. Trump said it's "wrong" that he supported the invasion of Iraq. It's not.
  2. Trump said he told Howard Stern "very lightly, I don't know, maybe, who knows?" about the war in Iraq. Trump actually said "I guess so, yeah."
  3. Trump said Clinton and her campaign started the "birther" movement. They didn't.
  4. Trump said it was "wrong" to say that stop-and-frisk racially profiled individuals.It did.
  5. Trump said ending stop-and-frisk made the city more dangerous. It didn't.
  6. Trump said murder is up in New York City. It's not.
  7. Trump said he "did not say" global warming is a hoax. He did.
  8. Clinton denied that she said TPP was the "gold standard" of trade deals. She did.
  9. Clinton said "the only two" tax returns Trump's released showed he didn't paid taxes those years. They did show that, but the same records show he did pay federal income taxes in three other years.
  10. Trump said "you will learn more" from financial disclosure than from tax returns.You won't.
  11. Clinton said Trump rooted for the housing crisis. He did repeatedly say it could benefit him as an investor.
  12. Trump said "nobody knows" the DNC hack was perpetrated by Russians. U.S. intelligence say they have a "high confidence" it was.
  13. Trump said ISIS controls "a lot of" oil in Libya. They don't.
  14. Trump said the U.S. should have taken Libya's oil. That violates the Geneva Convention.
  15. Trump said that endorsement was 16,500 Border Patrol; it is 6,700 officers, agents, and ICE employees.
  16. Trump said he started his company with a "very small loan in 1975," while Clinton said he got $14 million from his father. She's right: Trump got millions more than he acknowledges.
  17. Trump said Clinton has been fighting ISIS for her entire adult life. It's only beenaround for a fifth of her adult life.
  18. Trump said Clinton is spending "hundreds of millions" on ads against him. She's spent $96.4 million.
  19. Trump said he "didn't say" women don't deserve equal pay unless they do as good a job as men. In October, Trump told a young woman who asked if she'd make equal pay under a Trump presidency, "you're gonna make the same if you do as good a job."
  20. Trump said he "never said" pregnancy is an inconvenience to employers. He did.

 

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Mikey Founding Father

Mikey 16,583

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So, the answer to who won the debate depends on which poll results one looks at. They go from 81% for Trump to 62% for Clinton. That degree of variance makes the whole lot of those polls worthless. I have no opinion because I watched reruns of Law and Order instead and I feel my time was better spent.

I'm not going to vote for Clinton. I intend to look into candidates other than the main two and possibly vote for one of them as a protest vote, assuming I like one of their platforms.

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TitanTiger Founding Father

TitanTiger 20,479

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19 minutes ago, Mikey said:

So, the answer to who won the debate depends on which poll results one looks at. They go from 81% for Trump to 62% for Clinton. That degree of variance makes the whole lot of those polls worthless. I have no opinion because I watched reruns of Law and Order instead and I feel my time was better spent.

I'm not going to vote for Clinton. I intend to look into candidates other than the main two and possibly vote for one of them as a protest vote, assuming I like one of their platforms.

I've yet to see a poll that Trump won that wasn't just a completely unscientific online poll.  The polls showing Clinton won the debate are properly conducted, statistically accurate polls.

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Mims44 Founding Father

Mims44 1,869

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25 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

I've yet to see a poll that Trump won that wasn't just a completely unscientific online poll.  The polls showing Clinton won the debate are properly conducted, statistically accurate polls.

What's a scientifically accurate one? What makes one properly conducted? For that matter how do you Titan determine who won in your mind?

Serious question btw, I honestly have no idea how a winner is determined... who sways the most undecided voters? lies the least? makes the least bat crap insane comments?

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TitanTiger Founding Father

TitanTiger 20,479

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3 hours ago, Mims44 said:

What's a scientifically accurate one? What makes one properly conducted? For that matter how do you Titan determine who won in your mind?

Serious question btw, I honestly have no idea how a winner is determined... who sways the most undecided voters? lies the least? makes the least bat crap insane comments?

It would take far too long to go into great detail on this.  I took courses in college for my major on statistics, statistical modeling and how to conduct a proper, statistically-relevant random sample poll.  There are very specific rules and methodologies for accomplishing this.  They touch on every part of conducting the poll from how you contact people, how to get a truly random sample, how to properly apply statistical modeling and so on.  

Just as one example of things you need to do to get an accurate poll result (plus or minus a small percentage of error):  if you poll a certain state that you know from a variety of sources such as exit poll data, party registration, etc. has about 43% Republicans and 35% Democrats and 22% Independent but your random sample just by luck of the draw ends up polling a sample that is 47% Democrat and 40% Republican and 13% Independent, the raw results aren't going to accurately reflect how the vote for an election is likely to go.  The raw results may show the Democratic candidate is poised to win a huge upset.  But it would be wrong.  So you apply the known voter makeup models to the results and you end up with a poll result that is far more representative of how the state will end up voting.

But a simple online poll on Drudge Report where users opt in to vote, and campaigns can send out alerts to their followers to go flood a particular online poll, don't even belong in the same universe as a properly conducted random sampling poll.  And the same would go for an online poll conducted by Alternet or Huffington Post.  Such polls are for entertainment purposes only.

As far as how a winner is determined, that's hard to say without follow up questions asking the person being surveyed what their reasons were.

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homersapien Founding Father

homersapien 11,370

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4 hours ago, Mikey said:

So, the answer to who won the debate depends on which poll results one looks at. They go from 81% for Trump to 62% for Clinton. That degree of variance makes the whole lot of those polls worthless. I have no opinion because I watched reruns of Law and Order instead and I feel my time was better spent.

I'm not going to vote for Clinton. I intend to look into candidates other than the main two and possibly vote for one of them as a protest vote, assuming I like one of their platforms.

Those were internet polls in which you can vote as many times as you want.  They are worthless.

And deliberately not watching is the same as sticking your head in the sand. Not surprising.

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homersapien Founding Father

homersapien 11,370

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3 hours ago, Mims44 said:

What's a scientifically accurate one? What makes one properly conducted? For that matter how do you Titan determine who won in your mind?

Serious question btw, I honestly have no idea how a winner is determined... who sways the most undecided voters? lies the least? makes the least bat crap insane comments?

Clinton was 3 for 3  in your criteria.

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Mims44 Founding Father

Mims44 1,869

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51 minutes ago, homersapien said:

Clinton was 3 for 3  in your criteria.

Well that wasn't my criteria... It was 3 guesses I pulled out of no where.

So what is the actual criteria for determining who won?

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Mims44 Founding Father

Mims44 1,869

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4 hours ago, TitanTiger said:

It would take far too long to go into great detail on this.  I took courses in college for my major on statistics, statistical modeling and how to conduct a proper, statistically-relevant random sample poll.  There are very specific rules and methodologies for accomplishing this.  They touch on every part of conducting the poll from how you contact people, how to get a truly random sample, how to properly apply statistical modeling and so on.  

Just as one example of things you need to do to get an accurate poll result (plus or minus a small percentage of error):  if you poll a certain state that you know from a variety of sources such as exit poll data, party registration, etc. has about 43% Republicans and 35% Democrats and 22% Independent but your random sample just by luck of the draw ends up polling a sample that is 47% Democrat and 40% Republican and 13% Independent, the raw results aren't going to accurately reflect how the vote for an election is likely to go.  The raw results may show the Democratic candidate is poised to win a huge upset.  But it would be wrong.  So you apply the known voter makeup models to the results and you end up with a poll result that is far more representative of how the state will end up voting.

But a simple online poll on Drudge Report where users opt in to vote, and campaigns can send out alerts to their followers to go flood a particular online poll, don't even belong in the same universe as a properly conducted random sampling poll.  And the same would go for an online poll conducted by Alternet or Huffington Post.  Such polls are for entertainment purposes only.

As far as how a winner is determined, that's hard to say without follow up questions asking the person being surveyed what their reasons were.

So going by that, the criteria for winning is up to each individual? The polls (properly conducted ones) still simply ask each person "who do you think won?"

So if I was a mindless Trump follower, the debate could be him just drooling on himself and randomly screaming racist epithets... but if I say he won. Then he won.

 

IF that is how it goes, it makes sense, but it's underwhelming :(

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homersapien Founding Father

homersapien 11,370

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8 minutes ago, Mims44 said:

Well that wasn't my criteria... It was 3 guesses I pulled out of no where.

So what is the actual criteria for deermining who won?

1) They were the criteria you proffered.

2) The only meaningfully way is through valid polls.

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