Russia vs Ukraine

[AU9377 4,926]

Europe will likely always buy a large portion of their natural gas from Russia, provided Russia doesn't go bat s*** crazy like they are now.  The reason is simple. It is cost effective to transport the product from Russia to Europe.

[Shoney'sPonyBoy 338]

20 minutes ago, AU9377 said:

What on earth makes someone think that he would act any differently as President?

He might not, but if he were in the White House you'd have every major news outlet but one making it about the president instead of the one that is making it about the president right now, and you'd be melting down about the US not supporting a country we promised to protect if they gave up nuclear weapons instead of making 50 excuses for us not doing it.

And I suspect you even know it.

[GoAU 1,600]

1 hour ago, pensacolatiger said:

Agreed - but honestly, I’m ok w/ electric vehicles.  Sustainability can be debated, but diversification of utilization is a much better scenario for when a commodity price gets out of hand, like now

I’m ok with you being ok with electric vehicles, as long as you guys don’t try and force it on me    
 

I’ll stick with my F-350 turbo diesel….

[TexasTiger 12,835]

This is a serious thread on a critically serious topic. Take the tribalistic crap to the smack forum. 

[TexasTiger 12,835]

 

[Auburnfan91 1,407]

I'm staunchly anti-war. We have no business getting involved.

Talk of implementing a no-fly zone is pure idiocy. Yet a sitting congressman who's on his way out after the mid-terms is calling for it:

Kinzinger is agitating for the U.S. to enter into a war with Russia.

[AUFAN78 3,894]

Solid advice.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/deterring-russia-russia-china-assets-gas-energy-sanctions-banking-ukraine-donetsk-luhansk-invasion-taiwan-keystone-pipeline-poland-finland-sweden-11645716233?mod=djemalertNEWS

[autigeremt 6,600]

7 hours ago, pensacolatiger said:

Agreed - but honestly, I’m ok w/ electric vehicles.  Sustainability can be debated, but diversification of utilization is a much better scenario for when a commodity price gets out of hand, like now

Expanded choices is always best but we’re not there yet so ICE is still the best choice for transportation. Plus we still have to keep those charging stations powered up for use. 

[autigeremt 6,600]

4 hours ago, Auburnfan91 said:

I'm staunchly anti-war. We have no business getting involved.

Talk of implementing a no-fly zone is pure idiocy. Yet a sitting congressman who's on his way out after the mid-terms is calling for it:

Kinzinger is agitating for the U.S. to enter into a war with Russia.

I’m anti war if it’s avoidable. I don’t think we should enter into a war with Russia unless they strike us first. This includes a NATO member. 

[Grumps 3,704]

6 hours ago, AUFAN78 said:

Solid advice.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/deterring-russia-russia-china-assets-gas-energy-sanctions-banking-ukraine-donetsk-luhansk-invasion-taiwan-keystone-pipeline-poland-finland-sweden-11645716233?mod=djemalertNEWS

Great article! Thanks!

[TexasTiger 12,835]

8a) Do not start threads to complain about moderating decisions. Usually, if we delete a thread or post and don't explain on the thread, we'll PM you about it to explain the reasoning. Posts that only serve to whine and question mod decisions will be deleted on sight. Repeatedly breaking this rule may result in suspension or banning. If you want more explanation, PM the moderators, DO NOT spam the boards with your rantings.

 

If you have a complaint about my moderation on this thread, lodge it with Titan. Don’t post it here.

[TexasTiger 12,835]

 

[I_M4_AU 7,801]

11 hours ago, AU9377 said:

Making this about Biden is so Fox News.  There is one aggressor that is in the wrong.  That is Russia.  You honestly try to imply that Trump would have done something to prevent this invasion, yet we know two things that say that is cartoon like entertainment at best.  First, Trump had no interest in promoting a unified front, much less one that included NATO.  In addition to that, he has openly voiced his support for Putin's actions as recently as two days ago.  What on earth makes someone think that he would act any differently as President?

You have got to get Trump out of your mind.  He is no longer President.  Trump has nothing to do with the mess we are in right now.

Yes, Russia is the aggressor in this situation, my post had more to do with why we got into this mess and how it could have been prevented.  Unfortunately, that is water under the bridge so to speak, we have weak leadership and he is kowtowing to interests that are not necessarily what America needs.  Europe is too afraid they will lose their energy source to put hard sanctions on Russia because they can’t replace their energy requirements with anyone else.  Too bad there isn’t another country that has a ready supply isn’t it?

Biden has gone all in on the Green New Deal way too early as no country’s infrastructure is set up to handle replacing fossil fuels with alternate sources.  Putin took advantage. It’s pretty simple.

[DKW 86 7,419]

Biden killed Keystone, and we are going to pay thru the ass for that SF decision for years. 
Europe, and I guess POSSIBLY the US are paying for the Ukrainian Invasion now. Hope everyone is enjoying the results. 

Germany and Central Europe will still get the pipeline from Russia. 
Secondly, the clock is now ticking on Taiwan. The Chinese are watching all this and are loading their own guns as we speak.

[TexasTiger 12,835]

31 minutes ago, DKW 86 said:

Biden killed Keystone, and we are going to pay thru the ass for that SF decision for years. 
Europe, and I guess POSSIBLY the US are paying for the Ukrainian Invasion now. Hope everyone is enjoying the results. 

Germany and Central Europe will still get the pipeline from Russia. 
Secondly, the clock is now ticking on Taiwan. The Chinese are watching all this and are loading their own guns as we speak.

You think the Keystone pipeline isn’t operating?

[I_M4_AU 7,801]

53 minutes ago, TexasTiger said:

You think the Keystone pipeline isn’t operating?

It really doesn't matter if the Keystone pipeline is operating or not.  Biden has shut down our energy independence and given Putin his opening to disregard the west and invade Ukraine.  The world relies on fossil fuel and the Green New Deal has jumped the shark.

[TexasTiger 12,835]

8 minutes ago, I_M4_AU said:

It really doesn't matter if the Keystone pipeline is operating or not.  Biden has shut down our energy independence and given Putin his opening to disregard the west and invade Ukraine.  The world relies on fossil fuel and the Green New Deal has jumped the shark.

The Green New Deal is on a piece of paper, it’s not enacted. The Keystone Pipeline is operating while folks complain about it being killed and ending our energy dependence. Putin apparently made a number of bad assumptions, but he’s clearly not the cool, fully rational actor he’s been given credit for— at least not anymore. Putin appears to have made an incredible miscalculation which may ultimately lead to his undoing. Russia will surely be weakened, even if they “take” Kyiv, and their opposition, and even their “friends”, are having their eyes opened.
 

When folks have only a handful of talking points they strain to apply them to everything. The world’s a more complicated place.

[GoAU 1,600]

It absolutely is a complicated place, and this mess is as close to “no win” as I’ve seen in a long time.  
 

However the psychology of dealing with a bully isn’t all that difficult or complicated.  If you attempt to negotiate or show any weakness it will encourage more of the same.  The complexity comes in how you clip his wings without a world war.  
 

I will say I am very pleased / impressed with the resolve and fight of the Ukrainian people.  The best we can hope for at this point is the Ukrainian people hold out and continue to inflict unacceptable losses while holding on, the sanctions have effects that cause internal pressure, the war becomes unpopular and Putin gets ousted.  I don’t see him going out easily or gently though.  We just need to keep pouring in weapons, ammo and supplies.  There will be a point where he tires of us supporting an enemy he can’t beat and he’ll threaten us to stop.  We need the resolve to tell him to pound sand.  

[homersapien 11,367]

Interesting update on the "sanctions approach":

Europe says it has a ‘financial nuclear weapon’ against Russia. But it’s uncertain if it wants to use it.

 

By Rick Noack, Tory Newmyer,Quentin Aries

 

PARIS — As U.S. and European leaders ponder how far to go in sanctioning Russia for its attack on Ukraine, their attention has shifted to the most divisive — and potentially most severe — weapon at their disposal. French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire called it a “financial nuclear weapon” on Friday.

He was talking about SWIFT — short for the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication — a messaging network connecting banks around the world. The Belgian-based consortium links more than 11,000 financial institutions operating in more than 200 countries and territories, acting as a critical hub enabling international payments. Last year, the system averaged 42 million messages a day.

Whether to cut Russia off from SWIFT has become one of the first points of serious Western division in this crisis, after the European Union, a block of 27 nations, had for weeks demonstrated unity.

Before the invasion, Western nations promised a punishing regime of sanctions that President Biden said would be “swift and severe.” In Europe, it remained difficult Friday to gauge the swiftness or the severity or to determine exactly which countries were doing more or less because the punitive actions are a work-in-progress. European Council President Charles Michel said a “further package” was under “urgent preparation.”

European Union foreign ministers agreed Friday to freeze the assets of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, the first time the two men have been targeted personally by such measures, but details on other measures were still unclear.

Eastern European countries and France have backed cutting off Russia from SWIFT, which would make it more difficult for Russian entities to process transactions and could hobble the Russian economy’s ability to do business beyond its borders.

But the idea has encountered resistance from some corners of Europe that remain concerned about the fallout on their own economies. Biden cited those European hesitations as the reason on Thursday that SWIFT was not part of the sanctions plan.

Josep Borrell, the E.U.‘s foreign policy chief, acknowledged Friday that the bloc’s member states have so far reached no agreement on SWIFT. “Maybe it can be adopted in the following days, it will depend. We are exploring all possibilities,” said Borrell.

Three European officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters, said Friday that Italy and Germany were among the countries that have so far resisted the move. Both countries have strong trade ties to Russia, with Germany being particularly dependent on Russian gas.

But by Saturday, Italy’s government said it was open to cutting Russia off. After a call between Italy’s prime minister Mario Draghi and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the Italian government said it “will fully support the European Union’s line on sanctions against Russia, including those within the SWIFT framework.”

The Ukrainian leader afterward said on Twitter that the call marked “a new page in the history of our states."

Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba also said that Cyprus, which has close ties to Russian finance, supports the SWIFT measure.

But it remained unclear if other countries that have remained skeptical of such a move would follow.

Speaking on Friday evening, Germany’s Finance Minister Christian Lindner said “we’re open,” in theory, to the idea of cutting off Russia from SWIFT. “But one has to know what one is doing,” he cautioned, saying Europe needed to pose the question to itself whether the step may “prompt Russia to stop its gas deliveries, because they can’t be paid anymore.”

“And if those gas deliveries end, what will be the impact on our supplies?” he said.

Russia would not be the first nation to be disconnected from the international network. Iranian financial institutions lost their access to it in 2012, after the European Union imposed sanctions on the nation over its nuclear program. But Iran was also a far less significant trading partner for E.U. nations than Russia is.

Iranian banks regained access after the country signed onto a 2015 agreement to limit its nuclear activities but were cut off again in 2018 after the Trump administration scuttled the deal and pressured SWIFT to follow suit.

Russia has been bracing for the possibility it could be cut off since it invaded Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula in 2014 and some called for such a reprisal. In response, Russia launched an alternative network, dubbed the System for Transfer of Financial Messages. But experts say it remains an inadequate replacement. By the end of 2020, the system included only 400 participants from 23 countries, according to the Russian state-owned Tass news agency.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Friday he had pressed Secretary of State Antony Blinken “to use all US influence on some hesitant European countries to ban Russia from SWIFT.”

Pressure also appeared to mount from within Europe. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been among the biggest supporters of such a move, the Financial Times reported Thursday. France has also become increasingly vocal in its support.

Standing next to his German counterpart, French Finance Minister Le Maire initially said Friday morning that cutting off Russia from the global payment system would be an option of “last resort.” But by the afternoon, he clarified that “France is not among those countries” that have “expressed reservations” about the move. He cited the diplomatic obligations of France, which holds the presidency of the Council of the E.U., as the reason for the country’s initially vague position.

“When you have a financial nuclear weapon in your hands, you must think before using it,” he said.

On Thursday, Biden had sought to portray a SWIFT cut off as a limited sanctions step, saying “the sanctions we’ve imposed exceed SWIFT.” Those penalties targeted Russia’s tech and financial sectors, including barring the nation’s 10 largest banks financial institutions from processing payments through the United States. And the Biden administration is zeroing in on Russian oligarchs as well, with Biden saying more sanctions were probably on the way.

The president it would take time for the sanctions to work, indicating their impact should be evaluated in “another month or so.”

But Jacob Kirkegaard, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, predicated Western powers will move within days to banish Russia from SWIFT. “The domestic political pressure on these leaders is building rapidly, because it becomes a symbol of standing with Ukraine,” he said. “The governments can’t afford to be seen as being on the wrong side of history for very long.”

The economic cudgel alone has rarely succeeded in convincing rogue nations to alter course, said Charlie Steele, a former chief counsel for the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control. “Russia is so embedded in the world economy,” he said, “we’re going to have to see how effective the economic power of the U.S., which gives the sanctions their force, will be and how much pain Russia can tolerate.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/25/europe-swift-russia-cutoff/

[homersapien 11,367]

17 minutes ago, GoAU said:

It absolutely is a complicated place, and this mess is as close to “no win” as I’ve seen in a long time.  
 

However the psychology of dealing with a bully isn’t all that difficult or complicated.  If you attempt to negotiate or show any weakness it will encourage more of the same.  The complexity comes in how you clip his wings without a world war.  
 

I will say I am very pleased / impressed with the resolve and fight of the Ukrainian people.  The best we can hope for at this point is the Ukrainian people hold out and continue to inflict unacceptable losses while holding on, the sanctions have effects that cause internal pressure, the war becomes unpopular and Putin gets ousted.  I don’t see him going out easily or gently though.  We just need to keep pouring in weapons, ammo and supplies.  There will be a point where he tires of us supporting an enemy he can’t beat and he’ll threaten us to stop.  We need the resolve to tell him to pound sand.  

That's a good take. 

I am also very encouraged by what appears to be determined Ukranian resistance.  I am thinking more and more that - given time and continued Ukranian resolve - this may turn out to be a huge mistake for Putin.

His hold on power depends on domestic political repression. Russians are tough and resilient, but this is not another situation where another country is invading the motherland. 

Edited February 26, 2022 by homersapien

[I_M4_AU 7,801]

13 minutes ago, TexasTiger said:

The Green New Deal is on a piece of paper, it’s not enacted. The Keystone Pipeline is operating while folks complain about it being killed and ending our energy dependence. Putin apparently made a number of bad assumptions, but he’s clearly not the cool, fully rational actor he’s been given credit for— at least not anymore. Putin appears to have made an incredible miscalculation which may ultimately lead to his undoing. Russia will surely be weakened, even if they “take” Kyiv, and their opposition, and even their “friends”, are having their eyes opened.
 

When folks have only a handful of talking points they strain to apply them to everything. The world’s a more complicated place.

When Biden took office he shut down the pipeline and halted oil and gas leases;

BILLINGS, Mont. (AP) — President Joe Biden shut down oil and gas lease sales from the nation’s vast public lands and waters in his first days in office, citing worries about climate change. Now his administration has to figure out what do with the multibillion-dollar program without crushing a significant sector of the U.S. economy — and while fending off sharp criticism from congressional Republicans and the oil industry.

https://apnews.com/article/why-is-biden-halting-federal-oil-and-gas-sales-b8f03552c2c2fa7ec0dfc5debeb3f882

Biden’s energy czar (interesting name) John Kerry said;

 

I should not have said *the Green New Deal* as it gave you an opening.  It would have been more accurate to state his policies about oil and gas has been driven by his obsession to solve climate change.  Putin has seized upon this and felt the time is right to take over Ukraine.

America is still buying Russian gas and oil. This article was back in August of 2021.

Russia is supplying more oil to the U.S. than any other foreign producer aside from Canada as American refiners scour the globe for gasoline-rich feedstocks to feed surging motor-fuel demand.

U.S. imports of crude and refined petroleum products from its former Cold War adversary surged 23% in May to 844,000 barrels a day from the prior month, government data showed. Mexico was edged out of the No. 2 spot as its shipments to its northern neighbor rose by less than 3%.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-04/russia-captures-no-2-rank-among-foreign-oil-suppliers-to-u-s

Putin might have made a bad miscalculation, but earlier this month he signed a deal with China for billions of dollars to supply China with oil.  That alone will keep his war machine humming and China has yet to *join* the rest of the world in denouncing Russia.

MOSCOW/SINGAPORE, Feb 4 (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin unveiled new Russian oil and gas deals with China worth an estimated $117.5 billion on Friday, promising to ramp up Russia's Far East exports at a time of heightened tension with European customers over Ukraine.

https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-tells-xi-new-deal-that-could-sell-more-russian-gas-china-2022-02-04/

I wish I had your optimism about us coming out of this with a weaker Russia.  I don’t trust our leadership to be able do that right now.

[Grumps 3,704]

2 hours ago, TexasTiger said:

You think the Keystone pipeline isn’t operating?

I am pretty sure that you and I both know he was referring to Keystone XL pipeline which is not operating and was killed by our current POTUS.

[icanthearyou 4,462]

This is about the perceived "strength" of our leader?    Beyond simplistic.  Beyond ignorant. 

Our entire country is racing to become Alabama/Mississippi.

 

 

 

[TexasTiger 12,835]

6 minutes ago, Grumps said:

I am pretty sure that you and I both know he was referring to Keystone XL pipeline which is not operating and was killed by our current POTUS.

I’m not sure of that at all. The talking points are that Biden shut down the Keystone Pipeline and now that crude ain’t flowing no more and we have a war in Europe. It’s flowing fine. And the XL wouldn’t be completed for years anyway so it could hardly be a factor based on what Biden did in 2021.
 

 The media did a lousy job with this and coupled with all the distortions, I would bet a poll of Americans across the political spectrum would show most believe the Keystone Pipeline is shut down.

[Grumps 3,704]

Just now, TexasTiger said:

I’m not sure of that at all. The talking points are that Biden shut down the Keystone Pipeline and now that crude ain’t flowing no more and we have a war in Europe. It’s flowing fine. And the XL wouldn’t be completed for years anyway so it could hardly be a factor based on what Biden did in 2021.
 

 The media did a lousy job with this and coupled with all the distortions, I would bet a poll of Americans across the political spectrum believe the Keystone Pipeline is shut down.

My apologies for stating what you may or may not know.

I believe that killing the Keystone XL pipeline project was a blow to North American oil production and energy independence (and jobs). As we have found out, you never know what might happen that make dependence on other nations a real problem.

Can we get Putin to promise not to spend the money that we send to them for their oil on weapons to kill Ukrainians?