California enters the "How were we supposed to know?" phase of history

[TitanTiger 20,708]

Wow, imagine that. A state obsessed with the promotion of contraception, casual sex, culture of perpetual adolescence and gay "marriage" is inexplicably faced with a shortage of children.

But remember...we need to be concerned about overpopulation folks.

A California Drought: Not Enough Children

Declining migration and falling birthrates have led to a drop in the number of children in California just as baby boomers reach retirement, creating an economic and demographic challenge for the nation's most populous state...

In 1970, six years after the end of the baby boom, children made up more than one-third of California's population. By 2030, they will account for just one-fifth, according to projections by lead author Dowell Myers, a USC demographer. "We have a massive replacement problem statewide," Mr. Myers said in an interview....

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323706704578227920843309466.html

"If only there was some social institution that we could use to foster the idea that having children is a good and desirable thing. Some thing that would pair men and women up in a permanent relationship oriented toward having and raising children in a way that is most likely to ensure their social, intellectual and physical health." - Peter Sean Bradley

[Weegle777 78]

"If only there was some social institution that we could use to foster the idea that having children is a good and desirable thing. Some thing that would pair men and women up in a permanent relationship oriented toward having and raising children in a way that is most likely to ensure their social, intellectual and physical health." - Peter Sean Bradley

We need Jesus Christ. Not some social institution. Pray for a breakthrough.

[TitanTiger 20,708]

"If only there was some social institution that we could use to foster the idea that having children is a good and desirable thing. Some thing that would pair men and women up in a permanent relationship oriented toward having and raising children in a way that is most likely to ensure their social, intellectual and physical health." - Peter Sean Bradley

We need Jesus Christ. Not some social institution. Pray for a breakthrough.

No offense, but that sounds like a bumper sticker. Of course we all need Jesus. But that's a macro point.

That quote was a funny snark at the problem...we already have this institution and have for millenia. It's just not being properly valued and followed in lieu of social experimentation.

[Weegle777 78]

"If only there was some social institution that we could use to foster the idea that having children is a good and desirable thing. Some thing that would pair men and women up in a permanent relationship oriented toward having and raising children in a way that is most likely to ensure their social, intellectual and physical health." - Peter Sean Bradley

We need Jesus Christ. Not some social institution. Pray for a breakthrough.

No offense, but that sounds like a bumper sticker. Of course we all need Jesus. But that's a macro point.

Cool. Truth is truth. No matter what it "sounds" like. No offense taken.

[cptau 169]

I thought they had lots of illegal immigrants, but apparently not in that age group.

The interesting part is it's not just California. Most of the states with a dropping percentage of young children are the same ones with high taxes and regulation. People are voting with their feet to leave California, Illinois, New York, etc....

[AURaptor 1,137]

Mexico has plenty of children.

[icanthearyou 4,468]

I would guess that the problem is more about economics than morality. We have a culture that does more to promote women in the workforce than women as mothers. We have experienced declining wages since the seventies. Many households need two income earners just to survive. I would contend, that if in fact our values are changing, those changes are being promoted more by economic forces than a breakdown in morality. Daycare may be great for socializing children but, can it be an effective substitute for the nuturing of a mother?

[au2004ece 30]

I would guess that the problem is more about economics than morality. We have a culture that does more to promote women in the workforce than women as mothers. We have experienced declining wages since the seventies. Many households need two income earners just to survive. I would contend, that if in fact our values are changing, those changes are being promoted more by economic forces than a breakdown in morality. Daycare may be great for socializing children but, can it be an effective substitute for the nuturing of a mother?

Saying these things classifies you as a woman hating rich white republican man, even though what you say is true.

[Aufan59 99]

Too few children, or too many old folks? This problem was obvious caused by a spike in fertility rates during the baby boom, and policy that assumed there would be an ever growing population to support gigantic retirement packages. Should the survival of a society be based on an ever growing population, for the purposes of ever growing tax revenues to support retirees?

Anyways, lower fertility rates are the direct result of women getting educated and having equal opportunity. As long as we learn from the mistake of putting our retirement security on the backs of future generations, a fertility rate that sustains a population is just fine.

[TitanTiger 20,708]

Too few children, or too many old folks? This problem was obvious caused by a spike in fertility rates during the baby boom, and policy that assumed there would be an ever growing population to support gigantic retirement packages. Should the survival of a society be based on an ever growing population, for the purposes of ever growing tax revenues to support retirees?

Anyways, lower fertility rates are the direct result of women getting educated and having equal opportunity. As long as we learn from the mistake of putting our retirement security on the backs of future generations, a fertility rate that sustains a population is just fine.

Too few children. When 2.1 children is replacement rate and you can't even hit that, it's not too many old people.

While equal opportunity and education certainly has a part, the other part is and increasingly narcissistic view of the purpose for marriage and sexuality of which the things I mention above are the symptoms or enablers.

[au2004ece 30]

Too few children, or too many old folks? This problem was obvious caused by a spike in fertility rates during the baby boom, and policy that assumed there would be an ever growing population to support gigantic retirement packages. Should the survival of a society be based on an ever growing population, for the purposes of ever growing tax revenues to support retirees?

Anyways, lower fertility rates are the direct result of women getting educated and having equal opportunity. As long as we learn from the mistake of putting our retirement security on the backs of future generations, a fertility rate that sustains a population is just fine.

The fertility rate in the US is 2.06. 2.1 is the replacement rate. We are not sustaining our population through births. We are only sustaining our population through immigration.

The fertility rate in California is 1.91, way below the replacement rate.

At some point careers because more important than family for those that could choose. For those that can't choose due to declining purchase power of one paycheck, careers became mandatory.

[Aufan59 99]

That is very close to the estimated replacement rate, and with immigration we are a long ways from having a replacement problem in the US.

Blaming low fertility rates on the baby boomer retirement problem is ridiculous. The problem is obviously due to a spike in fertility rates and policy based on the assumption that these fertility rates would remain that high. If they remained as high as they were in the 50's, we'd be dealing with other problems.

[TitanTiger 20,708]

That is very close to the estimated replacement rate, and with immigration we are a long ways from having a replacement problem in the US.

The article points out that in California, immigration is distinctly not making up the difference.

Blaming low fertility rates on the baby boomer retirement problem is ridiculous. The problem is obviously due to a spike in fertility rates and policy based on the assumption that these fertility rates would remain that high. If they remained as high as they were in the 50's, we'd be dealing with other problems.

Even in countries that did not experience a "baby boomer" spike like the US in the 50s are experiencing problems with this shift on the connection between marriage and children. It used to be a more-or-less permanent commitment to raise children in a usually stable environment; now it is a temporary convenience to suit the fleeting desires of adults. Japan is in a depopulation spiral. China is on the brink of one from years of their forced one child policies. The same problem is creeping all over Europe and immigration is a band-aid, not a fix.

[channonc 466]

How come people assume that marriage = children?

[TitanTiger 20,708]

How come people assume that marriage = children?

Because historically it was part of the whole deal. The notion that marriage is primarily ordered to the desires of adults with no connection to children is a very new one. Granted, for various reasons children didn't always result for everyone but marriage and the nuclear family have been tightly connected for millennia.

[AURaptor 1,137]

How come people assume that marriage = children?

10,000 + years of human social construct, maybe ?

[Aufan59 99]

The article points out that in California, immigration is distinctly not making up the difference.

That is because California is losing people to other states. "For the past two decades, California has been sending more people to other American states than it receives from them. Since 1990, the state has lost nearly 3.4 million residents through this migration."

Even in countries that did not experience a "baby boomer" spike like the US in the 50s are experiencing problems with this shift on the connection between marriage and children. It used to be a more-or-less permanent commitment to raise children in a usually stable environment; now it is a temporary convenience to suit the fleeting desires of adults. Japan is in a depopulation spiral. China is on the brink of one from years of their forced one child policies. The same problem is creeping all over Europe and immigration is a band-aid, not a fix.

Japan and many European countries had a baby boom. When times were good, fertility rate increased. When times are bad, such as now, fertility rates decrease. Women's increased education and opportunity also decreases fertility rates. I don't see anything wrong with women having opportunity and education.

The problem is that we are now dealing with the result of policies based on high fertility rates. If we get through the baby boomer problem, as long as we don't repeat our mistakes, there really aren't any problems with fertility rates that we see now. It would take centuries for a significant population decrease, and that isn't necessarily a bad thing.

[TitanTiger 20,708]

But you said immigration would fix their problem. It isn't. And in fact, the Hispanic immigrants that used to prop up their birth rate have slowed down dramatically as well. They are slightly ahead of replacement levels, but blacks, whites, Asians and others are below and so they have a net loss with the birth rate. Couple that with less immigration and increased emigration and they're still in the same boat.

And all the problems are not just paying for entitlements. It's the lack of labor force that has serious economic consequences. And heaven help the country that starts experiencing immigration declines as well.

[augolf1716 21,646]

This is an interesting thread to read. Just always remember everything goes in cycles

[icanthearyou 4,468]

But you said immigration would fix their problem. It isn't. And in fact, the Hispanic immigrants that used to prop up their birth rate have slowed down dramatically as well. They are slightly ahead of replacement levels, but blacks, whites, Asians and others are below and so they have a net loss with the birth rate. Couple that with less immigration and increased emigration and they're still in the same boat.

And all the problems are not just paying for entitlements. It's the lack of labor force that has serious economic consequences. And heaven help the country that starts experiencing immigration declines as well.

Lack of a labor force? Have you looked at unemployment rates around the world? What is the correct number of people? Must we have a continuously expanding human population?

[augolf1716 21,646]

But you said immigration would fix their problem. It isn't. And in fact, the Hispanic immigrants that used to prop up their birth rate have slowed down dramatically as well. They are slightly ahead of replacement levels, but blacks, whites, Asians and others are below and so they have a net loss with the birth rate. Couple that with less immigration and increased emigration and they're still in the same boat.

And all the problems are not just paying for entitlements. It's the lack of labor force that has serious economic consequences. And heaven help the country that starts experiencing immigration declines as well.

Lack of a labor force? Have you looked at unemployment rates around the world? What is the correct number of people? Must we have a continuously expanding human population?

yes for us old farts sorry couldn't resist. I'm on a fixed income

[Aufan59 99]

But you said immigration would fix their problem. It isn't. And in fact, the Hispanic immigrants that used to prop up their birth rate have slowed down dramatically as well. They are slightly ahead of replacement levels, but blacks, whites, Asians and others are below and so they have a net loss with the birth rate. Couple that with less immigration and increased emigration and they're still in the same boat.

I never said immigration would fix California's problem. I believe it is their fiscally liberal government that is causing their problems.

And all the problems are not just paying for entitlements. It's the lack of labor force that has serious economic consequences. And heaven help the country that starts experiencing immigration declines as well.

Our labor force is so lacking that we have high unemployment...

[icanthearyou 4,468]

I wonder how much of California's problems started when Enron was jacking them around?

[cptau 169]

But you said immigration would fix their problem. It isn't. And in fact, the Hispanic immigrants that used to prop up their birth rate have slowed down dramatically as well. They are slightly ahead of replacement levels, but blacks, whites, Asians and others are below and so they have a net loss with the birth rate. Couple that with less immigration and increased emigration and they're still in the same boat.

I never said immigration would fix California's problem. I believe it is their fiscally liberal government that is causing their problems.

And all the problems are not just paying for entitlements. It's the lack of labor force that has serious economic consequences. And heaven help the country that starts experiencing immigration declines as well.

Our labor force is so lacking that we have high unemployment...

California has a overtaxed and over regulated mess out there. People are just leaving. Those remaining see declining opportunity.

The old East European Soviet Bloc countries had declining population too because of no opportunity and government oppression. They put up the iron curtain fences along the borders with the west to keep people from leaving their workers paradises. California's however can't build fences.............

[CCTAU 3,369]

But you said immigration would fix their problem. It isn't. And in fact, the Hispanic immigrants that used to prop up their birth rate have slowed down dramatically as well. They are slightly ahead of replacement levels, but blacks, whites, Asians and others are below and so they have a net loss with the birth rate. Couple that with less immigration and increased emigration and they're still in the same boat.

I never said immigration would fix California's problem. I believe it is their fiscally liberal government that is causing their problems.

And all the problems are not just paying for entitlements. It's the lack of labor force that has serious economic consequences. And heaven help the country that starts experiencing immigration declines as well.

Our labor force is so lacking that we have high unemployment...

Why work when all you have to do is VOTE!