Which top 10 team(s) will lose this week?

[AUbritt 611]

Arch is right. We need MSU to lose as much as possible (at least 2, or 1 to Ole Miss), and we need to win out.

It's better for us to beat a higher ranked Ole Miss team, too.

[McLoofus 35,182]

Arch is right. We need MSU to lose as much as possible (at least 2, or 1 to Ole Miss), and we need to win out.

Oh, nobody's disputing that. That became obvious as soon as Marshall's last pass was intercepted in Starkville (if not sooner).

It's better for us to beat a higher ranked Ole Miss team, too.

Maybe, maybe not. A somehow-still-ranked LSU- who we dominated- beating the #3 team in the country would make our existing resume look pretty good (along with, by far, the best OoC road win). With 2 other top 10/1 other top 5 team(s) still on the schedule- both on the road- we can probably afford for one of the 3 to drop.

[AUsince72 11,084]

did the head to head drop out of the tie breaker scenario with the CFP vs. BCS? Trying to see how SOS fits in if there is a 2 or 3-way tie.

A 2-way tie would always send the h2h winner. That is why MSU is our biggest threat, and Ole Miss is not a threat if we win out.

However, in a three way tie between AU, MSU, and Ole Miss, one would each have the h2h over the other: Auburn over Ole Miss, Ole Miss over MSU, MSU over Auburn. Therefor there would be no clear h2h winner. In fact the three teams would be tied for all of the tie breaker scenarios that follow that as well all the way to tie breaker "G" which is new for the SEC this year. That tie breaker has to do with the SEC records of the teams each team played from the East. We would win that tie breaker as Georgia and South Carolina would have a better combined record that Vandy and Kentucky (MSU) or Vandy and Tennessee (OM).

I'm not an expert in all this tie-breaker stuff but wouldn't the rankings matter alot in the event of a 3 way tie, ie: highest ranked of the 3 get in? AU runs the table and they'll be guaranteed to be the highest ranked between the 3.

....but maybe the rankings don't matter...

[au75 75]

MSU will lose to Kentucky and LSU beat OM

[AuburnArch13 185]

did the head to head drop out of the tie breaker scenario with the CFP vs. BCS? Trying to see how SOS fits in if there is a 2 or 3-way tie.

A 2-way tie would always send the h2h winner. That is why MSU is our biggest threat, and Ole Miss is not a threat if we win out.

However, in a three way tie between AU, MSU, and Ole Miss, one would each have the h2h over the other: Auburn over Ole Miss, Ole Miss over MSU, MSU over Auburn. Therefor there would be no clear h2h winner. In fact the three teams would be tied for all of the tie breaker scenarios that follow that as well all the way to tie breaker "G" which is new for the SEC this year. That tie breaker has to do with the SEC records of the teams each team played from the East. We would win that tie breaker as Georgia and South Carolina would have a better combined record that Vandy and Kentucky (MSU) or Vandy and Tennessee (OM).

I'm not an expert in all this tie-breaker stuff but wouldn't the rankings matter alot in the event of a 3 way tie, ie: highest ranked of the 3 get in? AU runs the table and they'll be guaranteed to be the highest ranked between the 3.

....but maybe the rankings don't matter...

The rankings don't matter. Here is the list of the SEC tie-breaker procedure.

http://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/2014/sec-has-a-new-tiebreaker-in-2014/

[AUsince72 11,084]

did the head to head drop out of the tie breaker scenario with the CFP vs. BCS? Trying to see how SOS fits in if there is a 2 or 3-way tie.

A 2-way tie would always send the h2h winner. That is why MSU is our biggest threat, and Ole Miss is not a threat if we win out.

However, in a three way tie between AU, MSU, and Ole Miss, one would each have the h2h over the other: Auburn over Ole Miss, Ole Miss over MSU, MSU over Auburn. Therefor there would be no clear h2h winner. In fact the three teams would be tied for all of the tie breaker scenarios that follow that as well all the way to tie breaker "G" which is new for the SEC this year. That tie breaker has to do with the SEC records of the teams each team played from the East. We would win that tie breaker as Georgia and South Carolina would have a better combined record that Vandy and Kentucky (MSU) or Vandy and Tennessee (OM).

I'm not an expert in all this tie-breaker stuff but wouldn't the rankings matter alot in the event of a 3 way tie, ie: highest ranked of the 3 get in? AU runs the table and they'll be guaranteed to be the highest ranked between the 3.

....but maybe the rankings don't matter...

The rankings don't matter. Here is the list of the SEC tie-breaker procedure.

http://www.saturdayd...reaker-in-2014/

Sorry, I couldn't get past the link to the Aryane Steinkopf photos....

I tried twice but had to click it each time...

[bikeriderga 134]

I'm going with Tennessee over Alabama only because of the hate spewing from those 100,000+ fans in that stadium. On paper Tennessee doesn't stand a chance, but an Alabama letdown after a 59-0 win at home over #21 (cough, cough) Texas A&M, plus the return of Kiffin to Knoxville looms large in this revenge game for the Vols. 27-25 Vols on a blocked last-second FG attempt by Bama.

Although I would love this to happen, will not happen.

There was hope when Alabama won by only one point over Arkansas, but the shellacking they put on TAMU says that Bama is back on track.

[SuperCamNewton 0]

What about Michigan State against rivals Michigan?

[ShocksMyBrain 9,364]

What about Michigan State against rivals Michigan?

Michigan is a dumpster fire. I highly doubt they get up enough to challenge State.

[C'viewTiger 242]

did the head to head drop out of the tie breaker scenario with the CFP vs. BCS? Trying to see how SOS fits in if there is a 2 or 3-way tie.

A 2-way tie would always send the h2h winner. That is why MSU is our biggest threat, and Ole Miss is not a threat if we win out.

However, in a three way tie between AU, MSU, and Ole Miss, one would each have the h2h over the other: Auburn over Ole Miss, Ole Miss over MSU, MSU over Auburn. Therefor there would be no clear h2h winner. In fact the three teams would be tied for all of the tie breaker scenarios that follow that as well all the way to tie breaker "G" which is new for the SEC this year. That tie breaker has to do with the SEC records of the teams each team played from the East. We would win that tie breaker as Georgia and South Carolina would have a better combined record that Vandy and Kentucky (MSU) or Vandy and Tennessee (OM).

thanks. I wasn't aware of the new change. UK is giving MSST a handful.

[AUTUmike 79]

First I agree with Mcloofus, I think too many get to carried away with the playoffs. Our first concern should always be winning the west, so we root for whoever is playing a team that is front of us. In this case LSU, Tennessee and KY. Second I agree with AUcanucktiger, Road games have proved tough. uat was lucky to win at arky, LSU's big loss was at AU's house.Some of Uga's bad games came on the road. Remember Miles record in home game especially at night I think it is possible that OM. uat and MSU could all fall. WDE

This isn't quite true. We still get to play Ole Miss, and would hop ahead of them if we beat them (which we would need to do to win the West). Ole Miss at this point isn't our biggest threat to making the playoff, Mississippi State is because they own the head to head victory. Mississippi State only has two games left that they could realistically lose, Bama, and @Ole Miss. Obviously, if they lose both of those games we would hop ahead of them if we win out. BUT, we could also hop ahead of them if they beat Bama but lose to a 1-loss (to us) Ole Miss. That would put the us in a 3-way tie with the two Mississippi teams. We would win the tie-breaker by merit of having stronger eastern division opponents. However, this scenario only works if Ole Miss is part of the tie-breaker. So we want them to keep winning as it greatly helps us in our chances of winning the west.

It also means that we don't necessarily have to root for Bama to beat Mississippi State.

That's a ton of supposition. MSU losing two and Auburn winning out is at least as likely as your hypothetical above. MSU tried to lose the only important game they've played with a target on their back- we just refused to win it (and neither the football gods nor the refs tried to change our minds). Plus UK isn't a terrible team, Lexington's a long way from Mootown and Arky- who's no joke, either- gets a tuneup game with UAB this weekend.

I'm good with my original stance.

Even assuming that MSU does lose two games and we win out, that doesn't mean Ole Miss losing helps us. All that means is that the Ole Miss - LSU game doesn't matter at all.

If we win out, Ole Miss cannot mathematically win the West. It is impossible. If we win out, the only two teams that could represent the West are Auburn, and MSU.

Assuming Auburn wins out, MSU wins the West if:

1) MSU also wins out

2) MSU finishes with 1-loss but win a 2-way tie breaker with AU.

Auburn wins the West if:

1) MSU drops 2 or more SEC games

2) Auburn, MSU, and Ole Miss all finish with 1 loss. Auburn wins the 3-way tie-breaker.

In none of those scenarios does an Ole Miss loss help Auburn. It can only hurt us. You claim it is a lot of supposition, but it would take far more unlikely things to happen for an Ole Miss loss to actually matter in a positive way for us. The only way it could possibly come into effect in a positive manner for Auburn would be if Auburn dropped another SEC game. However the chances of Auburn emerging from the West as a 2-loss champion are far less than the chances of a 3 way, 1-loss tie occurring.

I follow your logic, but the 3-team tiebreaker rule is unclear. The way most 3+-team tiebreakers work is to cut the list of tied teams down to two via the tiebreaker rules--at which point the head-to-head match up prevails. In that scenario, Ole Miss would likely be eliminated since they play Vandy and UT in cross-divisional games; whereas MSU plays Vandy and UK. So if Ole Miss if removed from the tiebreaker scenario then we still lose to MSU.

[AuburnArch13 185]

First I agree with Mcloofus, I think too many get to carried away with the playoffs. Our first concern should always be winning the west, so we root for whoever is playing a team that is front of us. In this case LSU, Tennessee and KY. Second I agree with AUcanucktiger, Road games have proved tough. uat was lucky to win at arky, LSU's big loss was at AU's house.Some of Uga's bad games came on the road. Remember Miles record in home game especially at night I think it is possible that OM. uat and MSU could all fall. WDE

This isn't quite true. We still get to play Ole Miss, and would hop ahead of them if we beat them (which we would need to do to win the West). Ole Miss at this point isn't our biggest threat to making the playoff, Mississippi State is because they own the head to head victory. Mississippi State only has two games left that they could realistically lose, Bama, and @Ole Miss. Obviously, if they lose both of those games we would hop ahead of them if we win out. BUT, we could also hop ahead of them if they beat Bama but lose to a 1-loss (to us) Ole Miss. That would put the us in a 3-way tie with the two Mississippi teams. We would win the tie-breaker by merit of having stronger eastern division opponents. However, this scenario only works if Ole Miss is part of the tie-breaker. So we want them to keep winning as it greatly helps us in our chances of winning the west.

It also means that we don't necessarily have to root for Bama to beat Mississippi State.

That's a ton of supposition. MSU losing two and Auburn winning out is at least as likely as your hypothetical above. MSU tried to lose the only important game they've played with a target on their back- we just refused to win it (and neither the football gods nor the refs tried to change our minds). Plus UK isn't a terrible team, Lexington's a long way from Mootown and Arky- who's no joke, either- gets a tuneup game with UAB this weekend.

I'm good with my original stance.

Even assuming that MSU does lose two games and we win out, that doesn't mean Ole Miss losing helps us. All that means is that the Ole Miss - LSU game doesn't matter at all.

If we win out, Ole Miss cannot mathematically win the West. It is impossible. If we win out, the only two teams that could represent the West are Auburn, and MSU.

Assuming Auburn wins out, MSU wins the West if:

1) MSU also wins out

2) MSU finishes with 1-loss but win a 2-way tie breaker with AU.

Auburn wins the West if:

1) MSU drops 2 or more SEC games

2) Auburn, MSU, and Ole Miss all finish with 1 loss. Auburn wins the 3-way tie-breaker.

In none of those scenarios does an Ole Miss loss help Auburn. It can only hurt us. You claim it is a lot of supposition, but it would take far more unlikely things to happen for an Ole Miss loss to actually matter in a positive way for us. The only way it could possibly come into effect in a positive manner for Auburn would be if Auburn dropped another SEC game. However the chances of Auburn emerging from the West as a 2-loss champion are far less than the chances of a 3 way, 1-loss tie occurring.

I follow your logic, but the 3-team tiebreaker rule is unclear. The way most 3+-team tiebreakers work is to cut the list of tied teams down to two via the tiebreaker rules--at which point the head-to-head match up prevails. In that scenario, Ole Miss would likely be eliminated since they play Vandy and UT in cross-divisional games; whereas MSU plays Vandy and UK. So if Ole Miss if removed from the tiebreaker scenario then we still lose to MSU.

The three-way tie breaker rules eliminate 3 teams down to 2 only in the event that more teams can't be eliminated in that step. Because Auburn's OOD opponents' record would trump both MSU's and OM's, both Mississippi's would be eliminated in that step. Not that any of that much matters at this point with Ole Miss's loss.

[AUbritt 611]

Right, with the Ole Miss loss, we need not only to win out, but also for Miss State to lose two games. They still have to play Bama and Ole Miss, so it's possible.

What's interesting to me is how many think, like Jesse Palmer, that Auburn is 'in' just by winning out. We can make a great argument, for sure.

[Randman5000 4,228]

Right, with the Ole Miss loss, we need not only to win out, but also for Miss State to lose two games. They still have to play Bama and Ole Miss, so it's possible.

What's interesting to me is how many think, like Jesse Palmer, that Auburn is 'in' just by winning out. We can make a great argument, for sure.

Yep, maybe us and Oregon for sure. But on strength of schedule, we should be in there which is part of the criteria. Let's hope kstate, Lsu keep winning

[AuburnArch13 185]

Right, with the Ole Miss loss, we need not only to win out, but also for Miss State to lose two games. They still have to play Bama and Ole Miss, so it's possible.

What's interesting to me is how many think, like Jesse Palmer, that Auburn is 'in' just by winning out. We can make a great argument, for sure.

Yep, definitely a possibility, particularly if MSST wins out. We'll learn a lot about those chances this Tuesday though. Hopefully the committee poll looks close to the AP and Coaches polls.

[cole256 17,074]

You guys hate on Jesse Palmer but I haven't seen a high profile media guy give us more love than him, and so far he's been adamant saying if we win out there's no question we should be in the playoffs

[AUsince72 11,084]

You guys hate on Jesse Palmer but I haven't seen a high profile media guy give us more love than him, and so far he's been adamant saying if we win out there's no question we should be in the playoffs

I listen to Rod & Stan when watching live but in watching the game over, I believe that I DID hear JP call Auburn the best 1 loss team in the country. I admit that I am one who believes he gets his digs on AU in when he can, but the little I've heard him this year he seems to hold AU in pretty good regard.

[cole256 17,074]

Yeah I mean he's an butt hole but strictly comparing him to all the main stream guys he gives us more props than anybody else. Our first game our offense sputtered he ssd like you can't judge us from one game. He's the guy who first said Jeremy Johnson was the best back up in the country, he constantly calls Gus the best play caller in the country....this is my first year listening to him but as far as THIS year we can't get mad when he points out what we need to get better on, that's his job.

[AUbritt 611]

Palmer says lots of good things about Auburn. He was really complimenting Nick, too.

[bg5 536]

I really thought up until Saturday that we had a good chance of winning out but we are all over the place. Our Defense is probably going to cost us in a game don te stretch where we can't just outscore someone. Most likely Ga. or UA.