Beating Clemson

[Barnacle 9,064]

Bottom line - I could care less what they did last year in the natty. Auburn has no excuse for losing to these guys on our home field come this fall. We are more talented, more experienced, and at home. If we do lose it's on the coaches not our players.

Again, I think arguing "based on what Auburn has done off the field we have no excuse" is valid so long as we understand that "off the field" and "on the field" are two different things.

By the way, no one will ever roast you for supporting your position with facts. Welcome and post more often!

[cole256 17,084]

What's wrong with being optimistic about this game?

Lol

[DAG 34,016]

I'm about to get roasted on here as I normally don't post on this Auburn board. I just read. My posting style is pointed and I pull no punches. However, I don't resort to name calling just facts in my posts. Some don't like that but this does need to be pointed out to my fellow Auburn fans. Let me repeat I am not a sunshine pumper at all. I'll call a spade a spade. Having said that, there is no excuse for Auburn to be losing to this team. None. I could care less what Vegas says or what Clemson did last year. Auburn is the more experienced team and the more talented team and we're playing at home.

Rivals Recruiting team rankings since 2012 which is the relevant time frame for this year's team(to include any possible 5th year seniors)

2012-Auburn 10 Clemson 14

2013-Auburn 9 Clemson 14

2014-Auburn 9 Clemson 13

2015-Auburn 7 Clemson 4

2016-Auburn 9 Clemson 6

Averaged recruiting ranking for 5 year span(5 year span chosen due to possible 5th year seniors on team for either team with 2016 class not being as important yet due to most being true frosh but counted anyways)- Auburn 8.8 Clemson 10.2

So according to Rivals during the last 5 relevant years as it pertains to recruiting, this year's team Auburn has slightly out-recruited Clemson by a little under two spots. For all intents and purposes Auburn and Clemson are even in terms of talent according to Rivals. Where did people get the idea that Clemson has out-recruited Auburn? They haven't! We have equal or better talent. And there is ZERO excuse for Auburn to lose to this team AT HOME. If we do lose this game, it's on coaching... period. The talent to beat these guys is there. If it's not getting done the coaches are responsible for not coaching our guys up. There is no excuse for losing to this team at home regardless of what they did last year in playing for the championship.

How about another recruiting service?

Scout recruiting rankings

2012-Auburn 8 Clemson 17

2013-Auburn 13 Clemson 12

2014-Auburn 8 Clemson 28

2015-Auburn 3 Clemson 15

2016-Auburn 9 Clemson 15

Average over 5 year span - Auburn 8.2 Clemson 17.4

Scout puts Auburn more in front of Clemson on the talent scale than even Rivals did.

That's two recruiting services. So, just in case you think the normal recruiting services are junk or bogus, I'll throw in one that isn't based on hype just offers from schools. That way bias is lessened in case you don't like normal recruiting services giving bumps/drops etc. The name of the site is http://www.rankbyoffers.com

They don't go back to 2012 so we'll start with 2013.

Team rankings

2013- Auburn 9 Clemson 12

2014-Auburn 11 Clemson 23

2015- Auburn 1 Clemson 6

2016 - Auburn 8 Clemson 7

4 year average- Auburn 7.25 Clemson 12

That's three recruiting services. Two standard and one off the wall. All three give Auburn the edge in terms of talent.

Bottom line - I could care less what they did last year in the natty. Auburn has no excuse for losing to these guys on our home field come this fall. We are more talented, more experienced, and at home. If we do lose it's on the coaches not our players.

Dude, we lost to Arkansas last year and lost every SEC home game we had including to Mississippi State (Both Arkansas and Miss State do not come close to us in prestige, recruiting rankings, etc). Those stats you just posted are null and void. Everything is not all black and white. There have been plenty of occasions where the team with more talent has lost. Alabama lost to ole miss two years in a row. Plus, you act like Auburn's talent completely overshadow Clemson's talent. You just posted our four-year averages. AU at 7 and Clemson at 12. That is marginal at best. I hate to tell you guys this but we will be the underdog for a reason this game. I go into every game hoping AU competes to their best of their ability and let the chips fall where they may. Still, in this game, AU could play a very good game team wise and still lose because I believe Clemson will have a top 3 team next year. Just my opinion. If we do win this game it would be considered an upset. Maybe not to us from the plains, but to everyone else, yes.

[cole256 17,084]

What's wrong with cheering for Auburn guys?? Lol

[Barnacle 9,064]

It would probably be cool if we turned this conversation back toward some specifics about the matchup. I came across this pretty cool analysis on return production from team's offenses and defenses in 2016: http://www.sbnation....nessee-stanford.

My goal was to begin compiling "percentage returning" data for every level of an offense and defense -- passing yards/attempts/completions, rushing attempts/yards, receiving targets/receptions/yards, offensive line starts (because that's all we have), and tackles/TFLs/pass breakups at each level of the defense.

Once I had this, I could tinker to see how much each category affects a team's offensive or defensive improvement. In theory, this could allow me to create a "percentage of offense/defense returning" figure that could dwarf the effectiveness of just data on returning starters.

With just one year at my disposal (2014) when I wrote the original post, I wasn't able to draw any lasting conclusions, but the potential was obvious. I put together a rough formula that posited that teams like North Carolina (87 percent of production returning), Ohio (85 percent), and Temple (83 percent) were among the most experienced in the country, then watched as those teams improved from a combined 18-9 to a combined 29-12. (Others near the top didn't improve nearly that much.)

Meanwhile, the five that returned less than 40 percent of their production -- Kansas, UTEP, Wyoming, UCF, and UL-Lafayette -- fell from a combined 32-31 to 11-49.

At the end of 2015, I was able to add a second year of data. I have 2013 queued up and ready to go. But the conclusions are becoming clear.

The author figures that Clemson, returning 90% of players on offense, and 50% on defense (70% overall) should see a net gain of 1.7 points per game. Auburn, on the other hand returns 64% of players on offense, and 61% on defense (62% overall) and should see a net gain of .01 points.

Not sure about Clemson, but I have a feeling we will be scoring a lot more than .01 points per game more this season, assuming that we get better quarterback play.

[ClaytonAU 4,606]

"Praise me for predictions I made on another message board 6 years ago"

[cole256 17,084]

But why are you guys upset that I just want to wear my Auburn shirt to the game???? Don't you see my halo??? Innocence, I'm not pushing an argument then when I don't make sense, fall back on the good ol why can't I feel Auburn can beat Clemson pity party.

We need a smiley with the lip poked out lol

[autig90 67]

I'm about to get roasted on here as I normally don't post on this Auburn board. I just read. My posting style is pointed and I pull no punches. However, I don't resort to name calling just facts in my posts. Some don't like that but this does need to be pointed out to my fellow Auburn fans. Let me repeat I am not a sunshine pumper at all. I'll call a spade a spade. Having said that, there is no excuse for Auburn to be losing to this team. None. I could care less what Vegas says or what Clemson did last year. Auburn is the more experienced team and the more talented team and we're playing at home.

Rivals Recruiting team rankings since 2012 which is the relevant time frame for this year's team(to include any possible 5th year seniors)

2012-Auburn 10 Clemson 14

2013-Auburn 9 Clemson 14

2014-Auburn 9 Clemson 13

2015-Auburn 7 Clemson 4

2016-Auburn 9 Clemson 6

Averaged recruiting ranking for 5 year span(5 year span chosen due to possible 5th year seniors on team for either team with 2016 class not being as important yet due to most being true frosh but counted anyways)- Auburn 8.8 Clemson 10.2

So according to Rivals during the last 5 relevant years as it pertains to recruiting, this year's team Auburn has slightly out-recruited Clemson by a little under two spots. For all intents and purposes Auburn and Clemson are even in terms of talent according to Rivals. Where did people get the idea that Clemson has out-recruited Auburn? They haven't! We have equal or better talent. And there is ZERO excuse for Auburn to lose to this team AT HOME. If we do lose this game, it's on coaching... period. The talent to beat these guys is there. If it's not getting done the coaches are responsible for not coaching our guys up. There is no excuse for losing to this team at home regardless of what they did last year in playing for the championship.

How about another recruiting service?

Scout recruiting rankings

2012-Auburn 8 Clemson 17

2013-Auburn 13 Clemson 12

2014-Auburn 8 Clemson 28

2015-Auburn 3 Clemson 15

2016-Auburn 9 Clemson 15

Average over 5 year span - Auburn 8.2 Clemson 17.4

Scout puts Auburn more in front of Clemson on the talent scale than even Rivals did.

That's two recruiting services. So, just in case you think the normal recruiting services are junk or bogus, I'll throw in one that isn't based on hype just offers from schools. That way bias is lessened in case you don't like normal recruiting services giving bumps/drops etc. The name of the site is http://www.rankbyoffers.com

They don't go back to 2012 so we'll start with 2013.

Team rankings

2013- Auburn 9 Clemson 12

2014-Auburn 11 Clemson 23

2015- Auburn 1 Clemson 6

2016 - Auburn 8 Clemson 7

4 year average- Auburn 7.25 Clemson 12

That's three recruiting services. Two standard and one off the wall. All three give Auburn the edge in terms of talent.

Bottom line - I could care less what they did last year in the natty. Auburn has no excuse for losing to these guys on our home field come this fall. We are more talented, more experienced, and at home. If we do lose it's on the coaches not our players.

Have you actually seen the QBs for AU and Clemson? At the most important position on the field, we are severely lacking as compared to Clemson. The coaches can only do so much when they don't know what to expect out of the QB position. Sure, some of that blame can be placed on the coaches but not all of it IMO. They can't get in JJ's head and help him read defenses in the heat of the moment, and they cant make SW faster or more athletic.Until a QB steps up to lead the team consistently and stay healthy, all the rankings you mentioned don't mean a whole lot - our offense will continue to sputter.

On the other hand if our D really becomes a shut down unit, that will lessen the load on the QB. That remains to be seen (although I am hopeful). That will be a tough ask in the first game against one of the best QB's in the country though.

[Eagle Eye 7 2,535]

Why in the world would you even look at a preseason point spread? It is worse than a preseason ranking. The only reason you have the first is to start the money betting and is usually made on what they think the bettors perception of the game at this point is. The second part (preseason polls are a lot of folks blowing hot air, trying to convince someone that they know something. Truth is like a lot of coaches have said, it is a new year and no one knows what will happen. Teams have a lot of new players and coaches, Just remember last year they were picking us to win the SEC. It will depend on who is health and what team jells their chemistry. Most of the time the winner at the end is going to be the guy with the most things that went their way. Most put way to much emphasis on who will play a certain position than how thee whole team will work together. I can tell you that if Cam had not had several other folks on that team he would not have led them to a NC. That's why they call it a team. Personally, I am liking what I am hearing about the jelling of this team. The lack of that along without leaders stepping up was the real downfall 0f the team last year. I think we fans will be happy with the results this year. Still going to take thing bouncing our way (just like every other team) to make the SEC game or the playoffs, but it is possible. WDE

[AUwent 3,768]

I'm not sure when, but I'm 99 percent sure Daniel will bail us out in at least one game this season with a ridiculously awesome long kick--think his 56-yarder vs. Louisville last year. The rest of the team will obviously decide whether that opponent is Arkansas State or Alabama (or more likely, someone in between).

I bring this up because I'm thinking of the 2008 season, when our QB unit was virtually non-existent. We had an outstanding defense that year, and a competent kicking game was the only difference between what actually happened and wins over Vandy, Arkansas and Georgia--probably more because the team's spirit would have been much higher.

[passthebiscuits 6,866]

I think we Can win, but probably won't. I think we can give Clemson all they can handle if we catch an early break or two. Remember that even in that terrible 2012 year we played them pretty well in the first game at the Ga Dome. 1st games are notorious for sloppy play and coaches not really knowing what kind of performance they are going to get.

My opinion, I think we make a nice run because of the home crowd and our defense makes things interesting, but in the end, the bad guys are a little more explosive offensively than we can handle. Clemson by 6.

I am both optimistic and realist...so there! Wde!

[AUpreacherman22 3,889]

I think we Can win, but probably won't. I think we can give Clemson all they can handle if we catch an early break or two. Remember that even in that terrible 2012 year we played them pretty well in the first game at the Ga Dome. 1st games are notorious for sloppy play and coaches not really knowing what kind of performance they are going to get.

My opinion, I think we make a nice run because of the home crowd and our defense makes things interesting, but in the end, the bad guys are a little more explosive offensively than we can handle. Clemson by 6.

I am both optimistic and realist...so there! Wde!

My thoughts are very similar. I hope we win, but looking at the game on paper, it seems more likely that we don't. They have way too many explosive weapons returning on offense.

I am hoping for a very pleasant surprise on Sept. 3.

[C'viewTiger 242]

I think we Can win, but probably won't. I think we can give Clemson all they can handle if we catch an early break or two. Remember that even in that terrible 2012 year we played them pretty well in the first game at the Ga Dome. 1st games are notorious for sloppy play and coaches not really knowing what kind of performance they are going to get.

My opinion, I think we make a nice run because of the home crowd and our defense makes things interesting, but in the end, the bad guys are a little more explosive offensively than we can handle. Clemson by 6.

I am both optimistic and realist...so there! Wde!

My thoughts are very similar. I hope we win, but looking at the game on paper, it seems more likely that we don't. They have way too many explosive weapons returning on offense.

I am hoping for a very pleasant surprise on Sept. 3.

I agree with their weapons and they have been tested. However, I think we have the weapons on this team to challenge anyone. They just need the confidence and a couple breaks here and there. Good QB play and I think the sky's the limit for this team.

[keesler 5,928]

Clemson's offensive weapons are nasty, they will know exactly what kind of a game Steele will bring to the table and they will attack. Venables has no idea what kind of offense AU will bring to the field...we "should" be able to catch their defense off guard for Gus' first few scripted plays, hopefully we can score a few TDs before their defense adjusts. And more importantly, I hope our coaches know how to make adjustments to keep us competitive throughout the game. The last thing we need in this match up is freaking predictability.

[Tiger 8,830]

Spurrier knew how to dismantle Ellis Johnson's defense and did it due to being familiar with him from there time together on the same staff. Anybody else worried about Clemson doing the same to Steele? Dabo had Steele has his DC, right?

[AU64 10,122]

Spurrier knew how to dismantle Ellis Johnson's defense and did it due to being familiar with him from there time together on the same staff. Anybody else worried about Clemson doing the same to Steele? Dabo had Steele has his DC, right?

But EJ did not learn anything about Spurrier's offense in that same period of time ? ......kinda hard to understand that?

[Tiger 8,830]

Spurrier knew how to dismantle Ellis Johnson's defense and did it due to being familiar with him from there time together on the same staff. Anybody else worried about Clemson doing the same to Steele? Dabo had Steele has his DC, right?

But EJ did not learn anything about Spurrier's offense in that same period of time ? ......kinda hard to understand that?

Good point. I have nothing so I'll see if anybody else with some more extensive knowledge can expand.

[McLoofus 35,182]

All I can say is that just about everybody knew how to dismantle CEJ's defense. The reasons for that can be and have been discussed ad nauseam, but the fact remains that hanging a number on Auburn from 2011 thru 2014 was no special accomplishment.

[Tiger 8,830]

All I can say is that just about everybody knew how to dismantle CEJ's defense. The reasons for that can be and have been discussed ad nauseam, but the fact remains that hanging a number on Auburn from 2011 thru 2014 was no special accomplishment.

You're right, but that particular game, to me, seemed to signify the point where our defense had been exposed to the point where our offense could no longer comfortably keep up. We had finally become worse on defense than we were good on offense after that game. But you're right, once Tubs walked out that door he took our defensive soul with us.

[keesler 5,928]

All I can say is that just about everybody knew how to dismantle CEJ's defense. The reasons for that can be and have been discussed ad nauseam, but the fact remains that hanging a number on Auburn from 2011 thru 2014 was no special accomplishment.

You're right, but that particular game, to me, seemed to signify the point where our defense had been exposed to the point where our offense could no longer comfortably keep up. We had finally become worse on defense than we were good on offense after that game. But you're right, once Tubs walked out that door he took our defensive soul with us.

That game certainly triggered a negative affect on AU's offensive potency and I've yet to see it rebound.

[keesler 5,928]

Spurrier knew how to dismantle Ellis Johnson's defense and did it due to being familiar with him from there time together on the same staff. Anybody else worried about Clemson doing the same to Steele? Dabo had Steele has his DC, right?

But EJ did not learn anything about Spurrier's offense in that same period of time ? ......kinda hard to understand that?

Spurrier wasn't the only coach that knew how to dismantle an EJ defense. I'm sure EJ learned a few things about Spurrier's offense from when he coached there. But Spurrier was balls to the walls on offense in that game against EJ...How many times did he go for it on 4th down in that game?

[McLoofus 35,182]

How many times did he go for it on 4th down in that game?

Good point.

[Strychnine 1,803]

Spurrier knew how to dismantle Ellis Johnson's defense and did it due to being familiar with him from there time together on the same staff. Anybody else worried about Clemson doing the same to Steele? Dabo had Steele has his DC, right?

But EJ did not learn anything about Spurrier's offense in that same period of time ? ......kinda hard to understand that?

Spurrier wasn't the only coach that knew how to dismantle an EJ defense. I'm sure EJ learned a few things about Spurrier's offense from when he coached there. But Spurrier was balls to the walls on offense in that game against EJ...How many times did he go for it on 4th down in that game?

If I recall correctly, they only punted once.

[Maverick.AU 13,281]

How many times did he go for it on 4th down in that game?

Good point.

They were 5-6 on 4th in that game.

[Tiger 8,830]

It got more and more demoralizing each time they converted on 4th down.