So, how do we finish?

[lionheartkc 6,150]

1 hour ago, AUinfusion said:

Agree. It was fun to watch us pummel Ark, but I would not have minded seeing a couple of series in trash time dedicated to the passing game, just to prepare us for a team like bama, that is stout against the run and questionable against the pass. That said, I think we win out until bama, and if the team has continued to progress as we are now, I think we win a close one in t-town. We will HAVE to be able to go vertical some against uat, however. The combination of size and speed on that semi-pro team is too much to get buy on WR screens.

The scary thing is, I think the bama game is really going to come down to QB play.  Can Sean be great in the moment when the team needs him most? I hope, for his sake, when we are mopping the field with Vandy and Alabama A&M, that he gets A LOT of live passing practice. Running the ball almost constantly, in every game, is not going to have him best prepared when we can't.

Of course I'm not sure which would be worse, Sean not handling the biggest stage of his career so far, or the insufferable gloating about it that we are sure to hear from a handful of posters who want him to fail.

[AUsince72 11,084]

Assuming Auburn holds serve, the only two games in doubt are the usual suspects.

The only reason I hesitate to pencil in a "W" over thUga is the last few years, either they play their best game or Auburn plays it's worst game.
Auburn is 2 & 8 in the last 10 with 1 win coming at the behest of Mr. Cam Newton and the other depending on a miracle.  I will be very nervous during that game until and unless Auburn starts to pull away handily.

I actually feel better about the bammer game.  Under Saban, sure uat's record is fine against Auburn but our beloved Tigers always give them their best shot, even when they're not too good (2014 & 2015).  I say bammer plays tight and Auburn's got a real chance at beating them.

With that said, I predicted 10-2 before the season and now that they've settled down and are playing the way we thought they could...I see no reason to change it now.

War Eagle!

[msza 228]

8 minutes ago, AUsince72 said:

Assuming Auburn holds serve, the only two games in doubt are the usual suspects.

The only reason I hesitate to pencil in a "W" over thUga is the last few years, either they play their best game or Auburn plays it's worst game.
Auburn is 2 & 8 in the last 10 with 1 win coming at the behest of Mr. Cam Newton and the other depending on a miracle.  I will be very nervous during that game until and unless Auburn starts to pull away handily.

I actually feel better about the bammer game.  Under Saban, sure uat's record is fine against Auburn but our beloved Tigers always give them their best shot, even when they're not too good (2014 & 2015).  I say bammer plays tight and Auburn's got a real chance at beating them.

With that said, I predicted 10-2 before the season and now that they've settled down and are playing the way we thought they could...I see no reason to change it now.

War Eagle!

I'll be nervous about the UGA game as well -- in 2013 we HAD pulled away 37-17 in the fourth. Never should have needed a Prayer in the first place.

I think we'll get them this year though.

[AUsince72 11,084]

Just now, msza said:

I'll be nervous about the UGA game as well -- in 2013 we HAD pulled away 37-17 in the fourth. Never should have needed a Prayer in the first place.

I think we'll get them this year though.

Absolutely!

The good news this year is that, with a 37-17 lead in the 4th qtr, I actually will feel pretty good at that point.

CKS's defense appears legit!

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

Since I got started looking at various metrics, I found one I thought was interesting. Auburn is leading the nation in  ATS+/- , which is the average amount of points that a team covers the spread by, at +13.4.  at 6-1 overall ATS.

[Rednilla 5,391]

3 hours ago, bigbird said:

12-2

 

I predicted 10-2 or 9-3 with the OM and Bama being our two toughest games. I thought we would beat TAMU though.  I think we run it till the iron bowl and SW and the freshman receivers take advantage of the weaker secondary. We win the IB, SEC, and bowl game.

If that happens, I'd be surprised if we aren't in the Playoffs.

[ArgoEagle 1,792]

I believe we run the table to the Ala game, and if we continue to play as impressively as we have the last few weeks, they will be about a 7-10 point favorite. We will not beat Bama running the ball as we did Arky. It is going to take more of a 65% to 35% running to passing ratio to beat
Bama, so after this week the coaches need to let Sean air it out a lot more often and get that mix going well before the Iron Bowl.

[lionheartkc 6,150]

37 minutes ago, AUsince72 said:

Assuming Auburn holds serve, the only two games in doubt are the usual suspects.

The only reason I hesitate to pencil in a "W" over thUga is the last few years, either they play their best game or Auburn plays it's worst game.
Auburn is 2 & 8 in the last 10 with 1 win coming at the behest of Mr. Cam Newton and the other depending on a miracle.  I will be very nervous during that game until and unless Auburn starts to pull away handily.

I actually feel better about the bammer game.  Under Saban, sure uat's record is fine against Auburn but our beloved Tigers always give them their best shot, even when they're not too good (2014 & 2015).  I say bammer plays tight and Auburn's got a real chance at beating them.

With that said, I predicted 10-2 before the season and now that they've settled down and are playing the way we thought they could...I see no reason to change it now.

War Eagle!

On the upside... Kirby is no Mark Richt.  Even ESPN is giving us an 80%+ chance of winning that game.

[BornAU76 398]

Just now, lionheartkc said:

On the upside... Kirby is no Mark Richt.  Even ESPN is giving us an 80%+ chance of winning that game.

LegHumpers have looked dreadful this year.  If the Gators lay the smack down this weekend they may stay down for the rest of the year.  Then again, it's a rivalry.

[lionheartkc 6,150]

11 minutes ago, Rednilla said:

If that happens, I'd be surprised if we aren't in the Playoffs.

I wish I shared your enthusiasm, but I fear that there are too many undefeated and one-loss teams left.  I don't see Clemson losing.  Michigan might not. Louisville probably won't lose another. Either West Virginia or Baylor could survive.  And then their's Boise and Western Michigan.  Even if some of those teams lose, only Boise and Western Michigan will be sent packing with a single loss.

I just don't see the committee letting a 2 loss team jump a 1-loss (unless it's Boise or Western Michigan) with a chance of a rematch of a game they already lost, and I don't see how we will end the season with only three teams that are undefeated or only have 1 loss.

[Plaric 4]

Bama secondary is going to get torched. We will run 60% of the time and do slants / deep passes and land some big hits. Bama / Kiffin won't be able to do well against our defense. Jalen just can't throw deep and he makes a lot of mental mistakes that get masked by their defense's quick ability to score on pick sixes etc. That being said....we are going to be in their backfield and as long as we play disciplined like we have this year I'm feeling it will be an awesome game.

 

Also, we keep playing like this and improving on top of it like we have been......Bama may out think themselves a bit.

[thaitopher 807]

13 minutes ago, lionheartkc said:

On the upside... Kirby is no Mark Richt.  Even ESPN is giving us an 80%+ chance of winning that game.

I would take a 56-3 win any day over Uga instead of Arkansas. I don't have any hatred in my heart towards Arkansas. Can't say the same for uga.

[Dshep4au 272]

I think we win out in regular season. Need to work on our intermediate passing game for bammer. That is their weakness.

[Rednilla 5,391]

17 minutes ago, lionheartkc said:

I wish I shared your enthusiasm, but I fear that there are too many undefeated and one-loss teams left.  I don't see Clemson losing.  Michigan might not. Louisville probably won't lose another. Either West Virginia or Baylor could survive.  And then their's Boise and Western Michigan.  Even if some of those teams lose, only Boise and Western Michigan will be sent packing with a single loss.

I just don't see the committee letting a 2 loss team jump a 1-loss (unless it's Boise or Western Michigan) with a chance of a rematch of a game they already lost, and I don't see how we will end the season with only three teams that are undefeated or only have 1 loss.

There are still five more weeks left in the regular season, plus conference championship games. There's going to be a LOT that happens between now and the committee making their decision, and the combination of winning the conference (which I think plays a HUGE role) and going to Tuscaloosa to beat a presumably undefeated Crimson Tide would make a great deal of noise for us.

Still, we've got a long, long way to go before getting there, so right now I'm just hoping we'll get to find out if we could make the playoffs with two losses.

[lionheartkc 6,150]

18 minutes ago, Rednilla said:

There are still five more weeks left in the regular season, plus conference championship games. There's going to be a LOT that happens between now and the committee making their decision, and the combination of winning the conference (which I think plays a HUGE role) and going to Tuscaloosa to beat a presumably undefeated Crimson Tide would make a great deal of noise for us.

Still, we've got a long, long way to go before getting there, so right now I'm just hoping we'll get to find out if we could make the playoffs with two losses.

You don't have to sell me on why we SHOULD be in the final 4 if we win out, but I just think we'll lose to politics.  The committee/NCAA isn't going to want to explain why they let a 2 loss SEC team jump a one loss team.  There's already enough belief in SEC favoritism without that.  

I just look at the schedules of those who are undefeated or have one loss and unless several blow it big time, there will be more than 3 left at the end of the season.

If we hadn't lost to either Clemson or A&M, it would be a no brainer.

[cole256 17,084]

1 hour ago, lionheartkc said:

The scary thing is, I think the bama game is really going to come down to QB play.  Can Sean be great in the moment when the team needs him most? I hope, for his sake, when we are mopping the field with Vandy and Alabama A&M, that he gets A LOT of live passing practice. Running the ball almost constantly, in every game, is not going to have him best prepared when we can't.

Of course I'm not sure which would be worse, Sean not handling the biggest stage of his career so far, or the insufferable gloating about it that we are sure to hear from a handful of posters who want him to fail.

Well lion the gloating from the certain guys already has been pretty bad. To the point they can't wait that they are making stuff up....so everybody should already be prepared for that

[Plaric 4]

The awesome part about the CFP is the human element. We keep destroying people like we have been and the media will keep talking about us and the committee will follow suit...

[JGLEATON 1,244]

If the SEC Champion has two loses then I think they really HAVE to at least consider them for the playoffs especially coming from the toughest division of the toughest conference... maybe even with the SEC being "down"...

I'm not saying they would take a 2 loss SEC champ, and there is a LOT of football and trap games for EVERYBODY between now and then (w/ stuff like Penn St over Ohio St you know anything can happen)... but I think they have to consider the SEC champ...

But, if at the end of the year the cluster abides...

Then I think one GOOD thing that COULD come out of the cluster of seemingly worthy teams there COULD be at the end of the season ...

is that they have to consider expanding the playoff to at least the top 8 teams to take into consideration this very thing happening and multiple undefeated and ranked / worthy / conference winning 1-2 loss teams..

I think that would be a GREAT thing for college football and would also give an opportunity to a few of the outlying (Boise State type) teams that have been left out up until now or without an expanded playoffs... one of the best teams at the end of the year may be that one loss team... or an undefeated team from a weaker perceived conference might knock out a perennial powerhouse and win it all. 

just my .02... glad we at least have the play off now but 8 would be perfect... and more great match ups at the end of the year to watch / money to be made for colleges...

[lionheartkc 6,150]

7 minutes ago, JGLEATON said:

Then I think one GOOD thing that COULD come out of the cluster of seemingly worthy teams there COULD be at the end of the season ...
is that they have to consider expanding the playoff to at least the top 8 teams to take into consideration this very thing happening and multiple undefeated and ranked / worthy / conference winning 1-2 loss teams..

I think that would be a GREAT thing for college football and would also give an opportunity to a few of the outlying (Boise State type) teams that have been left out up until now or without an expanded playoffs... one of the best teams at the end of the year may be that one loss team... or an undefeated team from a weaker perceived conference might knock out a perennial powerhouse and win it all. 

While I don't disagree that it would be a huge upside for determining who really is the best, as well as giving some of the little guys a shot for a change, do you think they would go for another week and 4 more games?

[thaitopher 807]

Agree. Really think 8 teams is ideal. Any more and you just water down the regular season games

[JGLEATON 1,244]

YES... One more week of glorious football... 

and why not start the first round earlier instead of waiting... like a week / two after the conference Championships... .

[WFE12 9,191]

Even if we don't make the playoff...playing spoiler to Bama's season would be glorious.

[thaitopher 807]

1 minute ago, WFE12 said:

Even if we don't make the playoff...playing spoiler to Bama's season would be glorious.

You mean like Lsu supposedly did in 2011?

[Linayus 676]

While I want to say we'll run the table and beat Bama, I still see us 9-3.

But if we DO beat Bama.. I want that Clemson rematch. I think we would dominate that game now.

[PoetTiger 1,899]

If u pressure Jalen Hurts he tends to become a bit erratic, both in his ball security and accuracy. If Lawson and company can get to him he will make some mistakes. Not to mention they lost their lead guy in the secondary in Jackson.This could cause communication issues in the secondary.  I think AU wins out and and heads to the IB with two losses. I think it comes down to QB play and which offensive line plays better....I like AU's chances.