"This game will likely cost us our jobs"

[aubaseball 2,610]

Auburn’s problem is that it’s running the same offense that it did with Cam and Nick except now the QB never runs.   Gus’ problem is that he went away from a running qb who could on occasion hit a wide open receiver.   If AU had a Dak or Fitzgerald type qb, it would still be putting up good offensive numbers.   Why he wasn’t out scouting the high schools for this type of qb is crazy.   Wasn’t the heisman trophy winner from Alabama?

[AUFlyer99 647]

1 hour ago, aubaseball said:

Auburn’s problem is that it’s running the same offense that it did with Cam and Nick except now the QB never runs.   Gus’ problem is that he went away from a running qb who could on occasion hit a wide open receiver.   If AU had a Dak or Fitzgerald type qb, it would still be putting up good offensive numbers.   Why he wasn’t out scouting the high schools for this type of qb is crazy.   Wasn’t the heisman trophy winner from Alabama?

Disagree.  Auburn's problem is Gus, and Gus's problem is Gus's ego and depleted uranium skull.  No lessons can enter it, for it is as hardened as an A-10 cannon round.  

[Eagle-1 3,821]

14 hours ago, Win4AU said:

UGA was largely based on injuries which resulted in bad play calling and coaching overall.  I have no doubt Auburn beats UGA easily last year with a healthy Sean and Bubba.  Clemson both times and LSU can’t be blamed on injuries.

And who, pray tell me is at fault for playing an injured Sean White in that game? Also who's fault is it that he had no halfway capable backup QB? Hint: Gus Malzahn! 

[bigbird 60,525]

11 hours ago, aubaseball said:

Auburn’s problem is that it’s running the same offense that it did with Cam and Nick except now the QB never runs.   Gus’ problem is that he went away from a running qb who could on occasion hit a wide open receiver.   If AU had a Dak or Fitzgerald type qb, it would still be putting up good offensive numbers.   Why he wasn’t out scouting the high schools for this type of qb is crazy.   Wasn’t the heisman trophy winner from Alabama?

I agree with the first part in that he is trying to run type of plays. My issue is why in world would you?  We have one of the best pure passers in AU history. Run the Todd offense or run the SW offense. Heck, create a new one, just do it built around your players and talent. 

[lca408 366]

5 minutes ago, bigbird said:

I agree with the first part in that he is trying to run type of plays. My issue is why in world would you?  We have one of the best pure passers in AU history. Run the Todd offense or run the SW offense. Heck, create a new one, just do it built around your players and talent. 

Agree. I can't stand reading or hearing people say, "Auburn needs a DT QB." Yes, a DT QB would probably be ideal for almost any offense but considering we have the best QB in the league right now, why not mold the offense to fit his strengths? Who cares if he's not a DT QB? We can win with Stidham at the helm provided we don't tell him to run the QB draw 15 plays per game. Stidham is a very talented QB who will only get better. If he improves even on what he's capable of now, why make any change? Why force an underdeveloped DT QB on a system just because it worked for Nick Marshall? Use what you have and adjust the offense to fit accordingly. That's what Chip's offense is and we've seen it on display the last few weeks, 2nd half of LSU excepted. Run that offense and the points will come, even against some of the better defenses. Don't try to fit your round peg QB into a square hole.

[AUGoo 2,664]

Perhaps this is our Dabo moment.

Remember that Tommy Bowden was the CU Head FB coach when he also had a stroke, got drunk before games, was being black mailed with nudy pictures.........., or whatever reason he suddenly could not score TDs for CU after having this brand new, incredible O that no one could stop.  The PTB at CU went to Tommy and told him to either fire the OC or he would be fired.  He refused.  Tommy got HIS walking papers and Dabo was hired.  The first thing he did?  Fired the OC.

 

Seems our situation is similar.  After Gus commits Arkancide today, we may be in a like situation.  Most of The Family I have spoken with like our staff but hate that they are not allowed to perform.  We all LOVE our players and feel likewise sorry that they have been snookered into a situation that does not allow them to utilize their skills and be developed to their full potential.   Of course I'm talking about our O.  Perhaps Borges can be our Dabo, or some other, unknown to me, influence that can develop our team.  I just don't see Gus being able to let go enough to make it better.  Plus, he has some 6 million reasons to not really be too concerned.  Maybe we'll get a two 'fer  and JJ will lead the way out of the AD.

 

On another note, I'm doubly angered that Gus has ruined my favorite Rye.  I did not have an adult beverage during the first half of the LSU game.   Had to get into the Bulleit in the second, and now it only tastes of frustration and resentment!

[BigWhiskey91 632]

19 hours ago, AURealist said:

What is the optimal run:pass ratio for first downs?

 

Depends on the scheme and personnel. Overall, the ideal number is one that eliminates tendencies to where the defense can’t run blitz on first down and be correct 80% of the time. 

In regards to your statement on FSU, I was saying that my original comment was targeting the claims that the 2013 FSU loss and 2017 LSU were the same. The 2013 was a run first offense that was successful running the ball on every down. The 2017 Offense isn’t built that way. 

By the way, is your name Richard by any chance? 

[Strychnine 1,802]

25 minutes ago, bigbird said:

I agree with the first part in that he is trying to run type of plays. My issue is why in world would you?  We have one of the best pure passers in AU history. Run the Todd offense or run the SW offense. Heck, create a new one, just do it built around your players and talent. 

 

The real question is what happened to Gus?  Why does the coach that literally wrote the book on the HUNH no longer use the HUNH?  How does the coach that crafted an offense Chris Todd could excel in not see that he currently has the roster to run that to perfection?

[bigbird 60,525]

1 minute ago, Strychnine said:

 

The real question is what happened to Gus?  Why does the coach that literally wrote the book on the HUNH no longer use the HUNH?  How does the coach that crafted an offense Chris Todd could excel in not see that he currently has the roster to run that to perfection?

[BigWhiskey91 632]

Just now, bigbird said:

THE PUMPS NOT MINE I SWEAR!

[PowerOfDixieland 3,226]

Our core problem is that the head coach has gotten completely predictable...coaching hires, Spring ball, Sunday through Friday in season practice and especially the offense and the way he handles himself on Saturday.  Everything he says and does is pretty well what everybody expects and it is not excellent in any way.  And the quote that titles the article proves it, these coaches can predict how this will play out with their head coach.

[StatTiger 3,188]

11 minutes ago, Strychnine said:

 

The real question is what happened to Gus?  Why does the coach that literally wrote the book on the HUNH no longer use the HUNH?  How does the coach that crafted an offense Chris Todd could excel in not see that he currently has the roster to run that to perfection?

First of all, Malzahn never ran the true hurry up like Oregon. He utilized it in spurts, predicated by success on first down.

When his offense arrived in Auburn (2009) it was new and refreshing. Opposing teams had to defend the 3 and 4-sets traditionally. Since 2009, Auburn has now had 1066 offensive possessions under Gus Malzahn, including 6491 plays. By 2013, it was obvious he was going to run the football on first down close to 80 percent of the time. Once this became an obvious trend, opposing teams discovered Malzahn never threw to his slot-WR on 1st down, so teams began to crash the running game on first down off the edge.

The next bad trend since 2009 was passing within 5-yards of the LOS, 44% of the time. It was worse on 1st down, which meant opposing teams could play all 11 defenders within 10-yards of the LOS to defend the Auburn offense on 1st down.

62% of Auburn's pass attempts since 2009 has been within 10-yards of the LOS.

The short passing game and consistent runs on 1st down made it easier to defend the Auburn offense. Since 2009, Auburn has passed more on 1st down than 3rd down in only 35.6% of their games. Malzahn has consistently placed all of his QB's in bad situations in terms of throwing when they had to rather than when they wanted to.

Not much of an intermediate passing game, especially over the middle. Gus doesn't like turnovers, which is a primary reason why he rarely attacks the middle of the field, 10-20 yards away from the LOS. Keep in mind that 75% of Auburn's interceptions have occurred when Auburn throws beyond 10-yards of the LOS. This is why we see a high volume of perimeter passes and deep balls. He tries to set up the deep balls with play-action, where there is a higher probability for success than failure. The majority of interceptions (58.2%) have come from 6-20 yards downfield.

He doesn't use the TE or FB in the passing game very often except inside the RZ and during the past three years, almost never.

He has always been conservative inside the red zone, where we frequently see the wildcat, with a high frequency of carries by the person taking the snap.

IMO, it is not what happened to the 2009 offense. It is the simple fact his offense has not evolved much since 2009 other than utilizing the inverted-veer with Cam Newton and the read-option with Nick Marshall. Though those offenses were explosive, they still had predictable traits we still see today. Chad Morris and Hugh Freeze took Malzahn's offense and added their own concepts to it, taking away the issues which made it predictable.

Rhett Lashlee at UConn is passing 38% on 1st down. Eli Drinkwitz at NC State is passing 41% on 1st down. Chip Lindsey before arriving at Auburn, threw 40% of the time on 1st down.

 

[DAG 33,983]

5 minutes ago, StatTiger said:

First of all, Malzahn never ran the true hurry up like Oregon. He utilized it in spurts, predicated by success on first down.

When his offense arrived in Auburn (2009) it was new and refreshing. Opposing teams had to defend the 3 and 4-sets traditionally. Since 2009, Auburn has now had 1066 offensive possessions under Gus Malzahn, including 6491 plays. By 2013, it was obvious he was going to run the football on first down close to 80 percent of the time. Once this became an obvious trend, opposing teams discovered Malzahn never threw to his slot-WR on 1st down, so teams began to crash the running game on first down off the edge.

The next bad trend since 2009 was passing within 5-yards of the LOS, 44% of the time. It was worse on 1st down, which meant opposing teams could play all 11 defenders within 10-yards of the LOS to defend the Auburn offense on 1st down.

62% of Auburn's pass attempts since 2009 has been within 10-yards of the LOS.

The short passing game and consistent runs on 1st down made it easier to defend the Auburn offense. Since 2009, Auburn has passed more on 1st down than 3rd down in only 35.6% of their games. Malzahn has consistently placed all of his QB's in bad situations in terms of throwing when they had to rather than when they wanted to.

Not much of an intermediate passing game, especially over the middle. Gus doesn't like turnovers, which is a primary reason why he rarely attacks the middle of the field, 10-20 yards away from the LOS. Keep in mind that 75% of Auburn's interceptions have occurred when Auburn throws beyond 10-yards of the LOS. This is why we see a high volume of perimeter passes and deep balls. He tries to set up the deep balls with play-action, where there is a higher probability for success than failure. The majority of interceptions (58.2%) have come from 6-20 yards downfield.

He doesn't use the TE or FB in the passing game very often except inside the RZ and during the past three years, almost never.

He has always been conservative inside the red zone, where we frequently see the wildcat, with a high frequency of carries by the person taking the snap.

IMO, it is not what happened to the 2009 offense. It is the simple fact his offense has not evolved much since 2009 other than utilizing the inverted-veer with Cam Newton and the read-option with Nick Marshall. Though those offenses were explosive, they still had predictable traits we still see today. Chad Morris and Hugh Freeze took Malzahn's offense and added their own concepts to it, taking away the issues which made it predictable.

Rhett Lashlee at UConn is passing 38% on 1st down. Eli Drinkwitz at NC State is passing 41% on 1st down. Chip Lindsey before arriving at Auburn, threw 40% of the time on 1st down.

 

You really need your own segment 

[ValleyTiger 2,894]

Whoa @StatTiger you just knocked it out of the park. Great work to put the numbers behind Gus's obvious tendencies. There's no denying how unimaginative his offensive attack has become.

[around4ever 4,139]

9 minutes ago, StatTiger said:

First of all, Malzahn never ran the true hurry up like Oregon. He utilized it in spurts, predicated by success on first down.

When his offense arrived in Auburn (2009) it was new and refreshing. Opposing teams had to defend the 3 and 4-sets traditionally. Since 2009, Auburn has now had 1066 offensive possessions under Gus Malzahn, including 6491 plays. By 2013, it was obvious he was going to run the football on first down close to 80 percent of the time. Once this became an obvious trend, opposing teams discovered Malzahn never threw to his slot-WR on 1st down, so teams began to crash the running game on first down off the edge.

The next bad trend since 2009 was passing within 5-yards of the LOS, 44% of the time. It was worse on 1st down, which meant opposing teams could play all 11 defenders within 10-yards of the LOS to defend the Auburn offense on 1st down.

62% of Auburn's pass attempts since 2009 has been within 10-yards of the LOS.

The short passing game and consistent runs on 1st down made it easier to defend the Auburn offense. Since 2009, Auburn has passed more on 1st down than 3rd down in only 35.6% of their games. Malzahn has consistently placed all of his QB's in bad situations in terms of throwing when they had to rather than when they wanted to.

Not much of an intermediate passing game, especially over the middle. Gus doesn't like turnovers, which is a primary reason why he rarely attacks the middle of the field, 10-20 yards away from the LOS. Keep in mind that 75% of Auburn's interceptions have occurred when Auburn throws beyond 10-yards of the LOS. This is why we see a high volume of perimeter passes and deep balls. He tries to set up the deep balls with play-action, where there is a higher probability for success than failure. The majority of interceptions (58.2%) have come from 6-20 yards downfield.

He doesn't use the TE or FB in the passing game very often except inside the RZ and during the past three years, almost never.

He has always been conservative inside the red zone, where we frequently see the wildcat, with a high frequency of carries by the person taking the snap.

IMO, it is not what happened to the 2009 offense. It is the simple fact his offense has not evolved much since 2009 other than utilizing the inverted-veer with Cam Newton and the read-option with Nick Marshall. Though those offenses were explosive, they still had predictable traits we still see today. Chad Morris and Hugh Freeze took Malzahn's offense and added their own concepts to it, taking away the issues which made it predictable.

Rhett Lashlee at UConn is passing 38% on 1st down. Eli Drinkwitz at NC State is passing 41% on 1st down. Chip Lindsey before arriving at Auburn, threw 40% of the time on 1st down.

 

DING - DING!!!!  We have a winner!!  And Gus refuses to admit or even recognize it. 

[DAG 33,983]

3 minutes ago, around4ever said:

DING - DING!!!!  We have a winner!!  And Gus refuses to admit or even recognize it. 

Oh he recognizes it . The problem is he is just too prideful to admit it and seek guidance to grow .

[bigbird 60,525]

13 minutes ago, DAG said:

You really need your own segment 

And be on the search committee

[Maverick.AU 13,279]

2 hours ago, bigbird said:

I agree with the first part in that he is trying to run type of plays. My issue is why in world would you?  We have one of the best pure passers in AU history. Run the Todd offense or run the SW offense. Heck, create a new one, just do it built around your players and talent. 

Looking back, the Todd offense looked much more dynamic than anything we have seen as of late. Hell, we even ran the speed option some with Chris Todd lol.

And I mean with Gus running the O. 

[StatTiger 3,188]

7 minutes ago, DAG said:

Oh he recognizes it . The problem is he is just too prideful to admit it and seek guidance to grow .

In all fairness to Gus Malzahn, he did bring an exciting brand of offensive football to Auburn and should be credited for it. Under Malzahn, the Auburn offense has broken over 40 team and individual records in just 8 seasons. As the head coach, he has...

* Improved the defense, something Gene Chizik could not do, despite being a defensive minded coach.

*Recruiting improved.

* Special teams has been solid.

  The one area we all thought he would be the most consistent (offense) has ironically been his downfall as of late. The 2017 Auburn offense has shown how explosive it can be if given the opportunity to succeed. There is a level of "fear", I believe Malzahn operates under, which shows up in his schemes, play-calling and personnel usage. Until he overcomes this issue, his offense will not reach it's full potential.

[aubaseball 2,610]

It’s amazing that someone on a public forum can identify the tendencies of our offense, yet 20 guys are getting paid good money can’t seem to grasp or understand how predictable we are.   That alone is an dismissal offense.

[CR 2,442]

Does Gus ever self-scout his offense? 

[ToraGirl 5,498]

Stat....just wow.  Data really doesn't lie.  I know there is much numbers don't measure...but this analysis is perfect for the question posed and helps me understand that plaguing question...how is what's on the field so completely offensive coming from the one who was touted for writing the book on it?  

Somewhere along the line we all buy media bylines and make them part of our culture..."HUNH" is very, very broadly defined...and perchance has lots and lots of moving parts.

Thank you so much for faithfully using your gifts to enlighten!!

[ValleyTiger 2,894]

3 minutes ago, aubaseball said:

It’s amazing that someone on a public forum can identify the tendencies of our offense, yet 20 guys are getting paid good money can’t seem to grasp or understand how predictable we are.   That alone is an dismissal offense.

It's not that those 20 guys can't/aren't seeing the predictability, it's that one man won't listen to them. After being dismissed over and over, it's human nature to stop trying to relay your opinions to one ever so hardheaded leader.

[bigbird 60,525]

30 minutes ago, aubaseball said:

It’s amazing that someone on a public forum can identify the tendencies of our offense, yet 20 guys are getting paid good money can’t seem to grasp or understand how predictable we are.   That alone is an dismissal offense.

19 of those absolutely know the issues and how to fix it

[ChltteTiger 649]

30 minutes ago, ValleyTiger said:

It's not that those 20 guys can't/aren't seeing the predictability, it's that one man won't listen to them. After being dismissed over and over, it's human nature to stop trying to relay your opinions to one ever so hardheaded leader.

I don't buy that. Would you be a reluctant yes-man if it meant you could be unemployed in a few months?