Who's to Blame for the Shutdown?

[AUDub 11,184]

This is a fair breakdown

The prevailing question on Capitol Hill Thursday was not whether the federal government would shut down at midnight on Friday — most people seem to believe it will — but who is going to take the blame for it.

Democrats say that Republicans control both chambers of Congress and the White House — of course it’s their fault if they can’t keep the government open. Republicans, meanwhile, are accusing Democrats of withholding their needed votes in the Senate in order to press for a resolution to the impasse in the immigration debate, even at the expense of the Children’s Health Insurance Program.

It’s a question with a few layers — including ontology, political metaphysics, and interpretation. Even as a matter of pure procedure, there are no easy answers.

“It’s an interesting question, but I don’t think it’s really answerable as a procedural matter,” Sarah Binder, who has studied congressional procedure at George Washington University, told me by email. “‘Shutting down the government’ means of course failure to act. And there are lots of veto points within Congress and between the branches making it difficult to say who per se would be shutting down the government.”

But we can say this: Right now, it’s not at all clear whether Republicans have the votes within their own conference that would keep the government open. Until they do, it would be harder to put the blame entirely on Democrats. But Democrats have made clear that they are indeed willing to shut down the government — and their rationale can be traced back to that infamous White House “****hole” meeting.

[HVAU 673]

The Democrats definitely had an opportunity to avoid the shutdown, but that would've required them reneging on promises regarding DACA and disregarding the disrespect shown by Trump after agreements were made.  There is also validity to the perspective that government by monthly lease is less than optimal.

I can't completely blame Congressional Republicans as many made earnest attempts to compromise only to be shot down by the far right factions or Trump.

Trump will most likely take the bulk of blame from moderates and the left.  As he should after all his Twitter bluster over the previous shut down.

He made promises in the heat of the moment, reversed course on the promises, lied about statements made in the meetings and waged a negative Twitter campaign against those with which he disagreed.  Trump is being Trump...petulant, indecisive, vulgar and dishonest.  He is a poor leader.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

13 minutes ago, HVAU said:

The Democrats definitely had an opportunity to avoid the shutdown, but that would've required them reneging on promises regarding DACA and disregarding the disrespect shown by Trump after agreements were made.  There is also validity to the perspective that government by monthly lease is less than optimal.

I can't completely blame Congressional Republicans as many made earnest attempts to compromise only to be shot down by the far right factions or Trump.

Trump will most likely take the bulk of blame from moderates and the left.  As he should after all his Twitter bluster over the previous shut down.

He made promises in the heat of the moment, reversed course on the promises, lied about statements made in the meetings and waged a negative Twitter campaign against those with which he disagreed.  Trump is being Trump...petulant, indecisive, vulgar and dishonest.  He is a poor leader.

Trump should take most of the blame here.  There aren't enough Senate Republicans on board with the current plan, much less Dems.  Trump scuttled what looked to be a likely deal with his tweet on Thursday morning.

And then yesterday, according to reports, Schumer was willing to give funding for the wall in exchange for DACA, but that still wasn't enough.  Trump and McConnell need to recognize that they simply don't have enough support within their own conference right now and even if they did, they still actually need the Dems for this bill to pass with the 60 vote threshold.  Trump is acting like he holds all the cards when in fact he is sitting on a crappy hand at this moment.

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

2 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

Trump should take most of the blame here.  There aren't enough Senate Republicans on board with the current plan, much less Dems.  Trump scuttled what looked to be a likely deal with his tweet on Thursday morning.

And then yesterday, according to reports, Schumer was willing to give funding for the wall in exchange for DACA, but that still wasn't enough.  Trump and McConnell need to recognize that they simply don't have enough support within their own conference right now and even if they did, they still actually need the Dems for this bill to pass with the 60 vote threshold.  Trump is acting like he holds all the cards when in fact he is sitting on a crappy hand at this moment.

Ridiculous to blame Trump in my opinion.

1. Schumer offered $1.6B for the wall which is estimated to cost around $17B? That is a dumb deal for Trump.

2. Senate Republicans voted overwhelmingly for it. Reverse for Dems

3. Dems voted to put the needs of 800K illegals ahead on 350B citizens

4. Dems showed no care for our military or vets

3. No need to shut down over DACA. Not in the bill and they have until March to address it.

3. So there is nothing in the bill that Dems usually  oppose and they voted against CHIPS which they really support. It was all about being obstructionists on the 1st anniversary of Trump's presidency. All the polls I have seen so far blame the Dems. Just watch, they will come around by the end of the week and history will call it the Schumer Shutdown.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

1 hour ago, Proud Tiger said:

Ridiculous to blame Trump in my opinion.

1. Schumer offered $1.6B for the wall which is estimated to cost around $17B? That is a dumb deal for Trump.

That's $1.6B more than he was getting before hand.  Why wouldn't you use it as a start?  Trump will never get $17B.  Ever.

2. Senate Republicans voted overwhelmingly for it. Reverse for Dems

4 Senate Republicans voted against the spending bill.  I believe 5 Dems voted for it.   Facts matter here.  And again, Republicans don't have leverage. They need Democratic votes to pass this bill.  That's not a debate.

3. Dems voted to put the needs of 800K illegals ahead on 350B citizens

And Republicans voted to shut down in 2013 over their demands.  This is nothing new for either party.  

4. Dems showed no care for our military or vets

False.  Around 1 am last night, McCaskell tried to make sure that payments and benefits for the military kept going.  McConnell shot it down.  Link below, but I watched it happen on live TV.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/checkpoint/wp/2018/01/20/amid-government-shutdown-the-military-becomes-a-centerpiece-to-make-political-jabs/

3. No need to shut down over DACA. Not in the bill and they have until March to address it.

What leverage do the Dems have in March when the DACA deadline hits?  They're playing the cards they have at the most opportune time.  Republicans have shown zero interest in negotiating with them over major legislation in the last year (taxes, the failed Obamacare repeal, etc), and this is despite the fact that a large majority of Republican voters support DACA.

3. So there is nothing in the bill that Dems usually  oppose and they voted against CHIPS which they really support. It was all about being obstructionists on the 1st anniversary of Trump's presidency. All the polls I have seen so far blame the Dems. Just watch, they will come around by the end of the week and history will call it the Schumer Shutdown.

You need to read more sources.  Most polls are blaming Trump and the Republicans by a nearly 50% combined number.  Dems are only being blamed by about 32% of voters.  And remember, there was a deal on the table that Senators had agreed to and Trump scuttled it by tweeting Friday morning.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/01/19/politics/cnn-poll-shutdown-trump-immigration-daca/index.html

http://theweek.com/articles/749603/who-should-take-blame-government-shutdown

https://www.politico.com/amp/story/2018/01/19/poll-government-shutdown-blame-349401

And here's the worst part for Republicans, because Independents drove Trump's victory.

And 46 percent of independents said they blame Trump and Republicans, compared to 25 percent who blame Democrats.

 

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

How about your beloved CNN?    http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/19/politics/cnn-poll-shutdown-trump-immigration-daca/index.html

And this from Politico......https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/01/20/who-will-america-blame-216487

Here is another opinion:     http://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/369942-democrats-will-pay-at-polls-for-shutting-down-the-government

 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

12 minutes ago, Proud Tiger said:

How about your beloved CNN? Here is another opinion:

http://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/369942-democrats-will-pay-at-polls-for-shutting-down-the-government

I don't care about someone's opinion piece.  I'm sure every liberal outlet and commentator is saying Republicans will pay and vice-versa for conservative ones.  What I posted above were scientific polls conducted with actual voter responses.  Those matter.

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

17 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

I don't care about someone's opinion piece.  I'm sure every liberal outlet and commentator is saying Republicans will pay and vice-versa for conservative ones.  What I posted above were scientific polls conducted with actual voter responses.  Those matter.

I agree depending on if the poll is done by a reputable entity. Even the Quinnipac poll you linked blames Dems slightly. But my original point was disagreeing wit you that it is Trump's fault. Do you have some polls showing that? My opinion is it is Congress' fault. just think, our military is doing its job and not getting paid while Congress is getting paid and NOT doing its job.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

22 minutes ago, Proud Tiger said:

I agree depending on if the poll is done by a reputable entity. Even the Quinnipac poll you linked blames Dems slightly. But my original point was disagreeing wit you that it is Trump's fault. Do you have some polls showing that? My opinion is it is Congress' fault. just think, our military is doing its job and not getting paid while Congress is getting paid and NOT doing its job.

All of the polls I linked break it out.  I believe one said Congressional Republicans are getting 27% blame, Trump 21%, Dems 31%, and everyone 10%.  The key though is that combined number of Congressional Repubs and Trump, as they are supposedly on the same team.

My argument is that Trump scuttled an agreed to plan by both parties on Friday morning with a dumb tweet and changed the course of this whole thing.  He ultimately has to sign a bill and negotiated with Schumer on Friday afternoon.  Schumer gave him a lot of what he wanted, but it still wasn't enough for Trump to keep government open.  That's dumb and irresponsible if you ask me, because getting something is always better than getting nothing.

Remember too, Trump is the leader of the Republican party, but several key Republican Senators have said they have no idea what he wants here.  That's a major problem when trying to negotiate.  And it caused several Republican Senators to break away from the party and vote against the spending bill Friday night.  He keeps saying it's the Dems fault, but he doesn't even have consensus in own caucus.

As for the military and Congressional pay, we're on the same page.  But again, McConnell shot down a motion to keep paying our military shortly after the shutdown went into effect Friday night.  That's not on the Dems.  

Side note: I thought SNL made a funny point last night.  Since the government is shut down, shouldn't we get to pay a prorated portion of our taxes this year?  Why are we paying for services that aren't even open?

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

9 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

All of the polls I linked break it out.  I believe one said Congressional Republicans are getting 27% blame, Trump 21%, Dems 31%, and everyone 10%.  The key though is that combined number of Congressional Repubs and Trump, as they are supposedly on the same team.

My argument is that Trump scuttled an agreed to plan by both parties on Friday morning with a dumb tweet and changed the course of this whole thing.  He ultimately has to sign a bill and negotiated with Schumer on Friday afternoon.  Schumer gave him a lot of what he wanted, but it still wasn't enough for Trump to keep government open.  That's dumb and irresponsible if you ask me, because getting something is always better than getting nothing.

Remember too, Trump is the leader of the Republican party, but several key Republican Senators have said they have no idea what he wants here.  That's a major problem when trying to negotiate.  And it caused several Republican Senators to break away from the party and vote against the spending bill Friday night.  He keeps saying it's the Dems fault, but he doesn't even have consensus in own caucus.

As for the military and Congressional pay, we're on the same page.  But again, McConnell shot down a motion to keep paying our military shortly after the shutdown went into effect Friday night.  That's not on the Dems.  

Side note: I thought SNL made a funny point last night.  Since the government is shut down, shouldn't we get to pay a prorated portion of our taxes this year?  Why are we paying for services that aren't even open?

Bottomline I think.......you don't have any reputable poll that shows the majority of people primarily blame Trump. I note that a vast majority of Republicans voted for the bill. opposite for DEMs. The GOP is NOT in total control of the senate. A stupid senate rule require 60 votes so for this bill to pass Dem support was required. If you need support you are NOT in control.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

13 minutes ago, Proud Tiger said:

Bottomline I think.......you don't have any reputable poll that shows the majority of people primarily blame Trump. I note that a vast majority of Republicans voted for the bill. opposite for DEMs. The GOP is NOT in total control of the senate. A stupid senate rule require 60 votes so for this bill to pass Dem support was required. If you need support you are NOT in control.

That "stupid Senate rule" has been in effect since the dawn of our country.  Don't like it?  Blame the founding fathers.  It's there to force debate and compromise.  That same rule stopped Dems from forcing legislation down Republicans throats and caused the 2013 shutdown when Republicans withheld votes from Dems.

Also, I never said a majority of Americans blamed Trump.  I said I blame Trump and detailed my reasons why.  I think Trump will take blame from some, but the plurality of voters blame Republicans in some form or fashion, whether it be Trump or Congressional Republicans.  That's in the polls as detailed above.  Either way, it's a bad story for Trump as he needs Congress to remain in Republican hands after November if he wants to accomplish anything.

Finally, a "vast majority" of Republicans can vote for it all they want, but that doesn't even equal 50 votes, much less 60.  Republicans need to get on the same page first before they start yelling at Dems.

[homersapien 11,453]

1 hour ago, Brad_ATX said:

All of the polls I linked break it out.  I believe one said Congressional Republicans are getting 27% blame, Trump 21%, Dems 31%, and everyone 10%.  The key though is that combined number of Congressional Repubs and Trump, as they are supposedly on the same team.

My argument is that Trump scuttled an agreed to plan by both parties on Friday morning with a dumb tweet and changed the course of this whole thing.  He ultimately has to sign a bill and negotiated with Schumer on Friday afternoon.  Schumer gave him a lot of what he wanted, but it still wasn't enough for Trump to keep government open.  That's dumb and irresponsible if you ask me, because getting something is always better than getting nothing.

Remember too, Trump is the leader of the Republican party, but several key Republican Senators have said they have no idea what he wants here.  That's a major problem when trying to negotiate.  And it caused several Republican Senators to break away from the party and vote against the spending bill Friday night.  He keeps saying it's the Dems fault, but he doesn't even have consensus in own caucus.

This ^

I am not sure Durbin and the Dems chose the best option politically, but it's clear to me the Republicans - as the governing party - can't even present a clear case of what they want.  This is on Trump.  

"I'm looking for something that President Trump supports. And he's not yet indicated what measure he's willing to sign," McConnell told reporters Wednesday. "As soon as we figure out what he is for, then I would be convinced that we were not just spinning our wheels going to this issue on the floor but actually dealing with a bill that has a chance to become law and therefore solve the problem." - Mitch McConnell

The 'great negoiator' is anything but.  Like Peggy Noonan said this morning, Trump brings a New York real estate dealer sensibility - make a deal, then renege on it the next day.

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

2 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

That "stupid Senate rule" has been in effect since the dawn of our country.  Don't like it?  Blame the founding fathers.  It's there to force debate and compromise.  That same rule stopped Dems from forcing legislation down Republicans throats and caused the 2013 shutdown when Republicans withheld votes from Dems.

Also, I never said a majority of Americans blamed Trump.  I said I blame Trump and detailed my reasons why.  I think Trump will take blame from some, but the plurality of voters blame Republicans in some form or fashion, whether it be Trump or Congressional Republicans.  That's in the polls as detailed above.  Either way, it's a bad story for Trump as he needs Congress to remain in Republican hands after November if he wants to accomplish anything.

Finally, a "vast majority" of Republicans can vote for it all they want, but that doesn't even equal 50 votes, much less 60.  Republicans need to get on the same page first before they start yelling at Dems.

Yeah "stupid rule" was a bad choice of words and I agree it works both ways. My only real point  is the majority party in the senate DOES NOT necessarily control it. I appreciate your opinion on Trump although I disagree. We both have our biased opinions. Thanks for a civil discussion.

[Farmer Brown 2,391]

5 hours ago, Proud Tiger said:

How about your beloved CNN?    http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/19/politics/cnn-poll-shutdown-trump-immigration-daca/index.html

And this from Politico......https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/01/20/who-will-america-blame-216487

Here is another opinion:     http://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/369942-democrats-will-pay-at-polls-for-shutting-down-the-government

 

Don't you come here bringing things from the liberals beloved sources, unless they fit the narrative.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

20 minutes ago, Farmer Brown said:

Don't you come here bringing things from the liberals beloved sources, unless they fit the narrative.

I quite literally linked that same CNN poll and another from Politico in this thread before Proud did.  There's no narrative being spun here.  Pay attention.

[Farmer Brown 2,391]

1 minute ago, Brad_ATX said:

I quite literally linked that same CNN poll and another from Politico in this thread before Proud did.  There's no narrative being spun here.  Pay attention.

Yes sir. Can I come out of the corner?

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

2 minutes ago, Farmer Brown said:

Yes sir. Can I come out of the corner?

Feel free, but seeing as how this is the serious forum, it would be nice if you added some substance to be a part of this conversation.  As evidenced above, Proud and I had a very cordial discussion on the topic at hand from differing view points.  That's what this part of the site is for.   If you have something to add that works for the serious forum, have at it.

[Farmer Brown 2,391]

2 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

Feel free, but seeing as how this is the serious forum, it would be nice if you added some substance to be a part of this conversation.  As evidenced above, Proud and I had a very cordial discussion on the topic at hand from differing view points.  That's what this part of the site is for.   If you have something to add that works for the serious forum, have at it.

I was simply trying to bolster the man's point. The sources usually cited by the left, are now contrary to their usual opinions.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

2 minutes ago, Farmer Brown said:

I was simply trying to bolster the man's point. The sources usually cited by the left, are now contrary to their usual opinions.

As I showed above, no they aren't.  Trump and Republican leadership are currently garnering a combined 48% of the blame for this shutdown in the CNN poll.  Dems are receiving 31% with another 10% blaming all sides.  How is that contrary?

[Farmer Brown 2,391]

"The CNN/SSRS poll didn’t ask about the multiple, specific trade-offs — but Americans, generally, oppose shutting down the government. A 56 percent majority of Americans say it’s more important for Congress to approve a budget agreement that would avoid a government shutdown, compared to 34 percent who say it’s more important to pass legislation that maintains the DACA program." .....Politico

Italics are mine. These polls are all over the place. They know exactly how to manipulate them to get the desired result. I never just take the poll numbers without digging into the specifics. To be honest, I have been engaged as much, since the political season is over for me. Our side won, and it isn't changing anytime soon.

 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

10 minutes ago, Farmer Brown said:

"The CNN/SSRS poll didn’t ask about the multiple, specific trade-offs — but Americans, generally, oppose shutting down the government. A 56 percent majority of Americans say it’s more important for Congress to approve a budget agreement that would avoid a government shutdown, compared to 34 percent who say it’s more important to pass legislation that maintains the DACA program." .....Politico

Italics are mine. These polls are all over the place. They know exactly how to manipulate them to get the desired result. I never just take the poll numbers without digging into the specifics. To be honest, I have been engaged as much, since the political season is over for me. Our side won, and it isn't changing anytime soon.

 

I find this bolded part sad on a couple of levels.

First, there's no season.  Politics and elections have consequences that affect us every day.  Being engaged all the time is important for the electorate to be able to hold officials accountable.  This should actually be more important for you since your "side" is in charge.  Keeping pressure on them to accomplish goals you want is imperative.  Otherwise, your vote means nothing.

Second, this isn't a freaking game.  There's only one team here: the USA.  We may differ about which paths to take at times, but it's sickening to see my fellow citizens only caring about winning and losing elections, damn the consequences that come with them.  Just as long as my "side" wins.

Finally, on the polling, it would be nearly impossible for the poll to ask about trade offs considering they weren't made public until after the shutdown began.  However the polling came out Friday before the shutdown went into effect.  For instance, we're just learning that Schumer offered Trump the wall.  How was CNN supposed to poll on that without knowing it happened? 

Either way, the question at hand isn't if Americans want a shutdown (they don't).  It's this: who do they blame for it?

[Farmer Brown 2,391]

Schumer offering the wall and funding the wall are two different things.

[AUDub 11,184]

 

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

Dems/Schumer blink. Maybe they got the message they were perceived as the ones responsible for the shutdown?

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/01/22/senate-breaks-dem-filibuster-clearing-way-to-end-government-shutdown.html

[TitanTiger 20,511]

15 minutes ago, Proud Tiger said:

Dems/Schumer blink. Maybe they got the message they were perceived as the ones responsible for the shutdown?

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/01/22/senate-breaks-dem-filibuster-clearing-way-to-end-government-shutdown.html

"Democrats effectively backed off their opposition, after being given assurances from majority Republicans."

They are trusting the other side to do the right thing if they relent.  Time will tell if their trust is warranted or foolish.