Obama Touts Universal Income

[Mikey 16,640]

Assuming this comes to pass and jobs are going to be getting more and more scarce, with more and more people needing to be on the public dole, we better start building that damn wall and it better be a damn good wall.

[TitanTiger 20,499]

30 minutes ago, Mikey said:

Assuming this comes to pass and jobs are going to be getting more and more scarce, with more and more people needing to be on the public dole, we better start building that damn wall and it better be a damn good wall.

I really don't want what has been a good conversation to veer off into arguments over immigration.

What I'd really like to hear is what some who have objections to this think of as an alternative solution.  Put aside for a second whether you're yet convinced that automation, AI and machine learning will encroach this far and this wide into the job market.  Assuming that this does come to pass - 30-40% or higher unemployment due to automation and nothing comes in to a significant degree to offset the jobs lost.  If we don't have some sort of UBI apparatus put in place, what do you do instead?  Do you favor legal means to prevent more than a certain percentage of jobs being automated?  Do you have another idea we haven't discussed?

[AU64 10,122]

8 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

 Its inevitable that jobs will be lost, mostly at the lower end of the spectrum.

That's where it usually occurs....where human interaction is not important though we are finding that kind of situation not very satisfying.....the runaround you get on phone systems for example is driving customers to places where they can talk with a human who understands the American version of English.   It's an economic race and if we artificially raise lower lever wages above value of services performed, then "employers" or providers will look to automation.   There is a shortage in our area for actual people jobs.....all in healthcare services....where machines are not going to be doing the job. 

Like the textile example I gave, there big job displacements in certain areas of the industry and lots of retraining opportunities for those who would take advantage but some were too old or just disinclined to learn something new.   I see the changes coming but the investment is huge and many companies wanting to make these moves into automation will not able to afford across the board changes or manage the systems with current employees....so while lower level jobs will be displaced, there will be need for support jobs that will be hard to full...and more expensive. .  

What I see is a transition to need for more technical competence and while we don't want this discussion to digress to immigration, you can't ignore the foolishness of letting unskilled workers come to this country in mass. ...though if it were not for Latino immigrants there would not be a landscaping company in this county.  And store clerks now in my rural NC town are often second generation Latinas who went to our local HS  ….smart, attentive and willing to work entry level jobs.. 

[AuCivilEng1 11,012]

There is a really interesting discussion between Sam Harris and Joe Rogan on Rogan's podcast about this. Harris seems to think that it's a very real possibility in the future, but thinks that it will ultimately be a good thing for humanity, because people will have the time and energy to learn new skills and hobbies. I tend to think we will just, as a species, turn into a bunch of fat unskilled losers who spend 90% of the day trolling people on the internet. Think Wall E. I have thought from the moment I saw that movie, that that is where humanity is eventually heading. lol

[SaltyTiger 7,816]

3 hours ago, TitanTiger said:

And it's not that 30+% of the people don't want to work,

Get that which is why I said "sad" earlier. I still prefer to see the natural flow rather than regulations with human requirements. By nature people need purpose and most often find that through faith, family and work. To many work is the first priority. There will be a lot of adjustments but that is really nothing new per the big picture.  

I can see large segments of people never accepting automation in many things because of the enjoyment from human interaction.   

[AUloggerhead 2,241]

21 hours ago, TitanTiger said:

Probably whatever level would keep the economy sustainable.  Because, again, this isn't about people being unwilling to work, it's about automation literally killing off a huge swath of jobs.  If you don't have enough people in an economy with the disposable income to purchase your products, you go out of business.  Businesses have got to have customers.  So how do you maintain some sort of workable equilibrium?

But again, what would you propose as an alternative?

You mentioned the hypothetical mass unemployment (30-50%) due to increasing AI/automation.  Keep in mind that at the height of the Great Depression in 1933, the unemployment rate was just under 25%.  I don't believe all human labor will become obsolete or unnecessary due to AI/automation.  Human labor is a resource, and a large surplus of any resource will be ultimately used by entrepreneurs.   The march of technology through the ages has made some jobs obsolete, true.  But all that did was shift humans into other jobs.  I still think that will occur in the age of AI/automation.  Anyways, some people are not waiting for the mass unemployment thing to happen in the future and are pushing for Universal Basic Income (UBI) to happen now -- Bernie Sanders, for instance.   I don't think UBI is feasible due to basic economics.  There remains no working or successful example of UBI in the entire world for us to examine.  So, to answer your question 'what would you propose as an alternative?' Laissez faire economics at least has a history behind it.  UBI does not. 

[augolf1716 21,222]

Before I retired in my line of work, Pharmaceutical Wholesale,  all our distribution centers were automated. Most DC carry 35,000 products. No jobs were lost automation in my field is done for accuracy in filling the orders with speed being the second reason . The order fillers became stockers of the auto pickers. Now not all products can be picked by auto due to be either slow movers, narcotics, bulk products, or fragile.  I know its not that way for all businesses. It will be interesting to see how things work out with all the AI coming into a lot of different fields.

[AU64 10,122]

14 minutes ago, augolf1716 said:

Before I retired in my line of work, Pharmaceutical Wholesale,  all our distribution centers were automated. Most DC carry 35,000 products. No jobs were lost automation in my field is done for accuracy in filling the orders with speed being the second reason . The order fillers became stockers of the auto pickers. Now not all products can be picked by auto due to be either slow movers, narcotics, bulk products, or fragile.  I know its not that way for all businesses. It will be interesting to see how things work out with all the AI coming into a lot of different fields.

Similar experiences....automation was for quality as much as productivity.....and often was used to replace repetitive jobs where it was relatively easy to automate and most people did not like the mind-numbing jobs anyway.     For some industries, automation was the only way to keep the industry in the US as opposed to seeing it move to low wage countries on the other side of the Pacific.   Lots of US jobs went to Mexico of course where not that long ago 5 or 6 dollars a day was pretty normal...but as wages went up in Mexico, that country saw jobs (especially textile and garment ) go to Viet Nam and Thailand where wages were even lower for high products with a high labor content.  

And what is more automated than electronics yet most of those companies are found in low wage countries.....thus the automation has the primary  benefit that product quality and uniformity is enhanced and when there is a design change,  the engineers just program it into the robotic equipment and no need for an extensive program to retrain the employees about how to produce/assemble the new products.  

From my observation, If anything, automation has had a bigger negative impact in many of the low wage countries were relatively uneducated or unskilled workers are displaced by smart and flexible machines. 

[DKW 86 7,431]

 

[WDavE 332]

What will be very interesting to watch will be the gap between those who embrace tech. and those who tend to shy away from it. There are people running computers right now without even a clue to what their  operating system is on the multiple computers they own.

 I get to talk to them all the time....

 

 

[AU64 10,122]

1 hour ago, WDavE said:

What will be very interesting to watch will be the gap between those who embrace tech. and those who tend to shy away from it. There are people running computers right now without even a clue to what their  operating system is on the multiple computers they own.

 I get to talk to them all the time....

 

 

True...but hard to get along in this world and not utilize the tech that is frequently forced on us by the government, insurance company, entertainment sources, banks, the cars we drive.......and on it goes.   

As for the tech ignorance, generally it goes all the way up the line in businesses and government......which is why some lower level tech guru has the ability to shut down or embarrass a company....or the US government.    And of course.....it's only likely to get worse. JMO

[homersapien 11,393]

On 7/19/2018 at 11:15 PM, Mikey said:

Like many other situations, I wouldn't be at all surprised if solutions presented themselves even before this problem materializes. That's if indeed automation ever does cause unemployment. It clearly hasn't so far and there's a lot of automation out there.

Consider real wage growth and it's future.

[Mikey 16,640]

1 hour ago, homersapien said:

Consider real wage growth and it's future.

Why? We're talking unemployment.

[kevon67 2,368]

On ‎7‎/‎20‎/‎2018 at 9:50 AM, AuCivilEng1 said:

There is a really interesting discussion between Sam Harris and Joe Rogan on Rogan's podcast about this. Harris seems to think that it's a very real possibility in the future, but thinks that it will ultimately be a good thing for humanity, because people will have the time and energy to learn new skills and hobbies. I tend to think we will just, as a species, turn into a bunch of fat unskilled losers who spend 90% of the day trolling people on the internet. Think Wall E. I have thought from the moment I saw that movie, that that is where humanity is eventually heading. lol

I really enjoy Joe Rogan.....cant wrap my head around his legalizing drugs......but I do think his thoughts on the matter come from a good place.

[AU64 10,122]

11 hours ago, kevon67 said:

I really enjoy Joe Rogan.....cant wrap my head around his legalizing drugs......but I do think his thoughts on the matter come from a good place.

Aucivil seems to have it right IMO.   

Sam Harris must live in a different world....I mean, look all around you now and see what kind "skills and hobbies " all those people currently living on "guaranteed income"....otherwise known as Medicaid, Welfare, etc. ….. are doing with all their free time.  

From what I see on al.com, mostly in B'ham it seems they are killing each other...as well as innocent people who happen to interfere with their creative activities.   I guess if the drugs were free, those folks would have to kill each other over something else but I'm confident they could find some reasons to do so.  

[kevon67 2,368]

2 minutes ago, AU64 said:

Aucivil seems to have it right IMO.   

Sam Harris must live in a different world....I mean, look all around you now and see what kind "skills and hobbies " all those people currently living on "guaranteed income"....otherwise known as Medicaid, Welfare, etc. ….. are doing with all their free time.  

From what I see on al.com, mostly in B'ham it seems they are killing each other...as well as innocent people who happen to interfere with their creative activities.   I guess if the drugs were free, those folks would have to kill each other over something else but I'm confident they could find some reasons to do so.  

Couldn't agree more to both paragraphs.

[homersapien 11,393]

13 hours ago, Mikey said:

Why? We're talking unemployment.

Because there's not much practical difference between being unemployed and not making a living wage.  And automation generates both.

[AU64 10,122]

2 hours ago, homersapien said:

Because there's not much practical difference between being unemployed and not making a living wage.  And automation generates both.

Not really...….  automation is a first world problem whereas being unemployed and not making a living wage is a problem for the vast majority of the third world.  And even in the first world, automation has a way of causing a shift in the make-up of the labor market, not reducing the demand for labor. 

Now if someone  wanted to change to topic to only affect the US or maybe western Europe there might be something to talk about....but for Obama to go to South Africa and make such a proposal was nuts......considering the poverty, lack of job opportunity and the shortage of wealthy people to give up their money to take care of everyone else ?     Where did BO think the money was coming from? 

When you say "free" in most of the 3rd world, people automatically think the US is gonna provide it....which is not too far from wrong. 

[homersapien 11,393]

53 minutes ago, AU64 said:

Not really...….  automation is a first world problem whereas being unemployed and not making a living wage is a problem for the vast majority of the third world.  And even in the first world, automation has a way of causing a shift in the make-up of the labor market, not reducing the demand for labor. 

Now if someone  wanted to change to topic to only affect the US or maybe western Europe there might be something to talk about....but for Obama to go to South Africa and make such a proposal was nuts......considering the poverty, lack of job opportunity and the shortage of wealthy people to give up their money to take care of everyone else ?     Where did BO think the money was coming from? 

When you say "free" in most of the 3rd world, people automatically think the US is gonna provide it....which is not too far from wrong. 

I thought we were talking about automation in the "first world" (U.S.)

And by "living wage" I was referring to getting above the poverty level in the first world.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/aug/20/robots-are-not-destroying-jobs-but-they-are-hollow-out-the-middle-class

Robots will not lead to fewer jobs – but the hollowing out of the middle class

 

[AU64 10,122]

1 hour ago, homersapien said:

I thought we were talking about automation in the "first world" (U.S.)

And by "living wage" I was referring to getting above the poverty level in the first world.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/aug/20/robots-are-not-destroying-jobs-but-they-are-hollow-out-the-middle-class

Robots will not lead to fewer jobs – but the hollowing out of the middle class

 

OP was about a universal income.....which lead some folks to claim that coming automation would make that necessary/desirable. ..and Obama made his comment n South Africa where a universal income has a different meaning...and where the unemployment rate is 27% overall and 50% for youth.   

Just from my own observations after a lot of years in industry,  but the lower middle class and unskilled labor will be hit hardest by automation.....especially in manufacturing.  But as the population ages,  the coming need is in the service area where I don't see much practical automation coming.... especially in healthcare.  The real need is to help people gain knowledge and skill where there are jobs.   Send 'em to college to study art history if you want, but the student or parents are making a bad life decision in my view. They are unlikely to be replaced by a machine because mostly the machines will already be doing the jobs they will find themselves qualified to do.  

As for what we consider to be poverty in the first world, …..the causes are a lot different than in the 3rd world.   At the risk of being called heartless and with what is sure to get a face palm from ICHY....a lot of our poverty is self-induced and multi-generational and I don't see a guaranteed wage as being the solution and certainly is not likely to incentivize those in poverty to seek job related training or technical education to make themselves more employable.   From what I read and hear, there are a lot of people who don't even understand the concept of "showing up for work on time". 

[SaltyTiger 7,816]

Great post IMO 64. I am intrigued with the topic. Can not wrap understanding thoughts around man being truly satisfied without a desire to work. 

[augolf1716 21,222]

33 minutes ago, SaltyTiger said:

Great post IMO 64. I am intrigued with the topic. Can not wrap understanding thoughts around man being truly satisfied without a desire to work. 

Maybe this

 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

22 hours ago, SaltyTiger said:

Great post IMO 64. I am intrigued with the topic. Can not wrap understanding thoughts around man being truly satisfied without a desire to work. 

I'd be 100% happy not working.  More time to hit the golf course and do some fishing sounds excellent.

[AU64 10,122]

13 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

I'd be 100% happy not working.  More time to hit the golf course and do some fishing sounds excellent.

Especially if someone else is paying for all of that.   

Just from my personal observation, it seems that if a person grows up in a work environment where they are used to the discipline of work year after year, its not easy to just do nothing.  It's nice to  have that golf and fishing option but I'm doubting that you would be happy "not working" for very long.  

I've been retired for almost 20 years and about 6 months into it, figured that sleeping late, playing golf and fishing was not going to cut it for the rest of my life...so started looking for "work" that I wanted to do, and which could be done when I wanted to do it......and of course, not interfere too much with my golf.  Useful volunteer jobs abound and for the most part I made up my own schedule.....always off on Monday and Wed until 2PM for example and jobs that ended by early afternoon the rest of the time. 

Maybe if the person has never had a fulltime job, starting as a teenager, he or she gets used to hanging with the buds late into the night, sleeping til noon...and then doing the same thing again the next day.....and after a while, that is the life that has been chosen.   Otherwise, it seems that working becomes a habit that remains as long as health permits even if the money is not the objective.  .

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

34 minutes ago, AU64 said:

Especially if someone else is paying for all of that.   

Just from my personal observation, it seems that if a person grows up in a work environment where they are used to the discipline of work year after year, its not easy to just do nothing.  It's nice to  have that golf and fishing option but I'm doubting that you would be happy "not working" for very long.  

I've been retired for almost 20 years and about 6 months into it, figured that sleeping late, playing golf and fishing was not going to cut it for the rest of my life...so started looking for "work" that I wanted to do, and which could be done when I wanted to do it......and of course, not interfere too much with my golf.  Useful volunteer jobs abound and for the most part I made up my own schedule.....always off on Monday and Wed until 2PM for example and jobs that ended by early afternoon the rest of the time. 

Maybe if the person has never had a fulltime job, starting as a teenager, he or she gets used to hanging with the buds late into the night, sleeping til noon...and then doing the same thing again the next day.....and after a while, that is the life that has been chosen.   Otherwise, it seems that working becomes a habit that remains as long as health permits even if the money is not the objective.  .

I've held a job since I was 15, including a 30+ hour a week gig through college and an 80+ hour per week gig immediately after, so I'm not coming at this from a lazy POV.  (Side bar:  Thank the Lord I work a more normal job now.)  But given the opportunity to travel, golf, etc, I'd do it in a heartbeat and not think twice about working.  There's so much to explore I this world that you can never really get bored.  Of course, I'm not a stay in one place kind of guy either.