Gus being set up for failure?

[meh130 1,043]

The premise of the commentary is spot-on. Donors are reluctant to contribute because they see the program as stagnant or declining, and becoming a perennial 4th place in the SEC West program, especially having to play UGA every year and now with the potential of Texas A&M rising, and LSU's historic strength against Auburn, even in years where LSU is mediocre.

Historically,  3 SEC losses puts you at 3rd or 4th place in the West, and 4 SEC losses puts you at 4th or 5th place in the West. Here is where we have ranked in the SEC West during Gus's tenure as a head coach:

2013 - 1st Place - 1 SEC Loss
2014 - 4th Place - 4 SEC Losses
2015 - 7th Place - 6 SEC Losses
2016 - 2nd Place - 3 SEC Losses
2017 - 1st Place - 1 SEC Loss
2018 - 5th Place - 5 SEC Losses

We have to play Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M, and UGA every year. Split those, and we have two losses in the West, and are looking at a 2nd place finish. Bat .750 and we have one loss, and are competing to go to Atlanta, and even if not, might be in contention for the CFP. Bat .250 and we have three losses and a likely 3rd place finish, and are not in the Playoff picture. It is a murder's row compared to those "other Tigers" to the east, on the lake. And it is a tougher path than anyone in the SEC East. But it is our reality. Beat UGA and Bama, like we did in 2017, and we are a contender even with two losses. Few teams have that opportunity. Auburn is high risk, high reward.

What the donors are missing is if Gus does poorly and is fired, do you want his replacement to start with nothing? If we started the football only facility it means better recruiting, and a better prospective candidates to replace Gus. It just does.

These donors are cutting off their nose to spite their face. They are not setting only Gus up for failure. They are setting Gus' prospective replacement up for failure.

We invested in the program in bad times in the past. Investing in the program is about the future, not the present.

[meh130 1,043]

2 hours ago, Auburn2Eugene said:

And they (Clemson) certainly wouldnt hire a coach no one outside the state of South Carolina had ever heard of...

They hired Dabo. He was on no one's radar as a prospective head coaching candidate.

They kept Dabo after a 6-7 losing season in 2010.

I agree if Dabo left tomorrow, they would not promote a position coach to replace him.

[McLoofus 35,182]

37 minutes ago, DAG said:

 

I guess creepy stalker boy is talking about me? Christ, that dude is f**ed up. 

[DAG 34,000]

25 minutes ago, meh130 said:

They hired Dabo. He was on no one's radar as a prospective head coaching candidate.

They kept Dabo after a 6-7 losing season in 2010.

I agree if Dabo left tomorrow, they would not promote a position coach to replace him.

Right? 

I mean Kirby Smart was a superstar before he got to UGA with all that head coaching experience. (And we had our chance to get him).

LSU has coach O. Clear superstar right?

People are just speaking without doing any type of research.

 

[aujeff11 6,243]

1 hour ago, McLoofus said:

I guess creepy stalker boy is talking about me? Christ, that dude is f**ed up. 

Responding to you over talking trash about others that aren’t even in the conversation makes me the creepy “boy”? You can do better than that. Try again.

Stalker? You think very highly of yourself if you think you’re worth the time.  You’re another anonymous blurb that I respond to on occasion.  Nothing more nothing less. 

 

[keesler 5,928]

1 hour ago, meh130 said:

The premise of the commentary is spot-on. Donors are reluctant to contribute because they see the program as stagnant or declining, and becoming a perennial 4th place in the SEC West program

The problem here is the Donors weren't opening their wallets after Chizik brought AU their first NC in +50 yrs OR when Gus took AU to their second NC appearance in 4 yrs and this was slap dab in the middle of our in-state rivals historical run.

My God, if the Donors won't pony up when AU is perched on the mountain top winning and competing for NC's, then WHEN will they?

 

[triangletiger 1,599]

2 hours ago, meh130 said:

The premise of the commentary is spot-on. Donors are reluctant to contribute because they see the program as stagnant or declining, and becoming a perennial 4th place in the SEC West program, especially having to play UGA every year and now with the potential of Texas A&M rising, and LSU's historic strength against Auburn, even in years where LSU is mediocre.

Historically,  3 SEC losses puts you at 3rd or 4th place in the West, and 4 SEC losses puts you at 4th or 5th place in the West. Here is where we have ranked in the SEC West during Gus's tenure as a head coach:

2013 - 1st Place - 1 SEC Loss
2014 - 4th Place - 4 SEC Losses
2015 - 7th Place - 6 SEC Losses
2016 - 2nd Place - 3 SEC Losses
2017 - 1st Place - 1 SEC Loss
2018 - 5th Place - 5 SEC Losses

We have to play Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M, and UGA every year. Split those, and we have two losses in the West, and are looking at a 2nd place finish. Bat .750 and we have one loss, and are competing to go to Atlanta, and even if not, might be in contention for the CFP. Bat .250 and we have three losses and a likely 3rd place finish, and are not in the Playoff picture. It is a murder's row compared to those "other Tigers" to the east, on the lake. And it is a tougher path than anyone in the SEC East. But it is our reality. Beat UGA and Bama, like we did in 2017, and we are a contender even with two losses. Few teams have that opportunity. Auburn is high risk, high reward.

What the donors are missing is if Gus does poorly and is fired, do you want his replacement to start with nothing? If we started the football only facility it means better recruiting, and a better prospective candidates to replace Gus. It just does.

These donors are cutting off their nose to spite their face. They are not setting only Gus up for failure. They are setting Gus' prospective replacement up for failure.

We invested in the program in bad times in the past. Investing in the program is about the future, not the present.

Great post.  You clearly stated what I was trying to say earlier.

[toddc 13,194]

We need to start this thing now so CGM can use it in recruiting pitches if he starts winning, or the next coach can tell recruits what’s coming! Either way it’s a win win.

[gr82be 14,449]

First I'll clear up that I have no money and don't know the boosters that do either. They certainly have the right to spend their money the way they see fit but I'm not getting the feeling any of them have a vision for Auburn. Just facility status quo as long as football is status quo for one of the most important additions to Auburn football to date. They may have family money instead of having made it themselves. That might be why they don't understand the risk/ reward factor. The future will be the present if they dwell on the past. 

[Auburn2Eugene 2,317]

13 hours ago, meh130 said:

They hired Dabo.

I said nothing about being on anyones radar. 

I said a coach no one outside the state had ever heard of... 

Bill Clark has never coached or played outside the state of Alabama. 

Im pretty sure that Dabo didnt grow up in South Carolina. Pretty sure he didnt go to college anywhere in South Carolina. Pretty sure he didn't start his coaching career in South Carolina. 

[Auburn2Eugene 2,317]

12 hours ago, keesler said:

My God, if the Donors won't pony up when AU is perched on the mountain top winning and competing for NC's, then WHEN will they?

We didnt have ADAG then. I dont think there is a chance that would of been the case if he was running the AD at that time.

[doc4aday 1,887]

At the end of the day, this project will come together and will move forward.  I do not think things are anywhere as bad as they are being made out to be. I believe in 3 years, this dream will be a reality. This comes from the heart and not the head. I could be dead on wrong, partially right, dead on right, or just plain dead!

[lala 327]

On 6/20/2019 at 10:34 AM, DAG said:

Right? 

I mean Kirby Smart was a superstar before he got to UGA with all that head coaching experience. (And we had our chance to get him).

LSU has coach O. Clear superstar right?

People are just speaking without doing any type of research.

 

Kirby was hired and expectations were high due to his recruiting ability and his obvious background.   Dabo was appointed due to the firing of a coach and no one expected him to stay in place.   

 

I guess I am not understanding your point

 

[DAG 34,000]

1 hour ago, lala said:

Kirby was hired and expectations were high due to his recruiting ability and his obvious background.   Dabo was appointed due to the firing of a coach and no one expected him to stay in place.   

 

I guess I am not understanding your point

 

My point is Kirby was never a superstar head coach before he was given a chance to see what he would become. Like Dabo. Same goes with coach O. Very rarely do programs luck into getting a Nick Saban or Jimbo, proven head coaches with past successes.  I didn’t think I would have to explain that but okay.

[Tigerfinz 1,362]

14 hours ago, DAG said:

My point is Kirby was never a superstar head coach before he was given a chance to see what he would become. Like Dabo. Same goes with coach O. Very rarely do programs luck into getting a Nick Saban or Jimbo, proven head coaches with past successes.  I didn’t think I would have to explain that but okay.

This is all true. The only difference is that UGA probably wouldn't have hired an assistant coach to replace Richt, had it not been Kirby....he was a homegrown boy that the fans and alumni wanted desperately.  His pedigree was greater than his accomplishments. Time will tell if the always will be.

[lala 327]

14 hours ago, DAG said:

My point is Kirby was never a superstar head coach before he was given a chance to see what he would become. Like Dabo. Same goes with coach O. Very rarely do programs luck into getting a Nick Saban or Jimbo, proven head coaches with past successes.  I didn’t think I would have to explain that but okay.

Correct, I must a missed a post.  No he wasn’t a HC but everyone knew Kirby would be successful at Ga.   Ga is a gold mine for recruiting and he is a relentless recruiter.    Plus UGA’s downfall with Richt has always been their lines, and Kirby learned early from Nick that a good O & D line is critical to any success.  

[DAG 34,000]

1 minute ago, lala said:

Correct, I must a missed a post.  No he wasn’t a HC but everyone knew Kirby would be successful at Ga.   Ga is a gold mine for recruiting and he is a relentless recruiter.    Plus UGA’s downfall with Richt has always been their lines, and Kirby learned early from Nick that a good O & D line is critical to any success.  

And we had him in our grasps, but hindsight is 20/20. I digress.

[dyehardfanAU 2,117]

45 minutes ago, DAG said:

And we had him in our grasps, but hindsight is 20/20. I digress.

AU is pretty good at ripping defeat from the jaws of victory.

[Auburn2Eugene 2,317]

Even if we had hired Kirby, i dont think he would of been the same coach he was when UGA hired him. He still got years of training under $aban. Not to mention in all likelihood had we hired Kirby, he would of bolted the second UGA came calling and it would of stung 100 times worse than just "missing" him. 

[aujeff11 6,243]

18 minutes ago, dyehardfanAU said:

AU is pretty good at ripping defeat from the jaws of victory.

So is Kirby

[dyehardfanAU 2,117]

1 hour ago, aujeff11 said:

So is Kirby

LOL. Bruh has gone 13-2 and 11-3 the last two seasons which both featured a 7-1 conference record.  Nice try Jeff but this was a whiff.

[aujeff11 6,243]

2 minutes ago, dyehardfanAU said:

LOL. Bruh has gone 13-2 and 11-3 the last two seasons which both featured a 7-1 conference record.  Nice try Jeff but this was a whiff.

Yet he cannot beat playoff teams led by backup QBs in the second halves.

 

[dyehardfanAU 2,117]

3 minutes ago, aujeff11 said:

Yet he cannot beat playoff teams led by backup QBs in the second halves.

Hah, when I saw you quoted me I thought I might get an intelligent response.  Silly me.

[aujeff11 6,243]

2 minutes ago, dyehardfanAU said:

Hah, when I saw you quoted me I thought I might get an intelligent response.

rookie

[ellitor 33,111]

5 hours ago, Auburn2Eugene said:

Not to mention in all likelihood had we hired Kirby, he would of bolted the second UGA came calling and it would of stung 100 times worse than just "missing" him.

Not necessarily. Many coaches who come to AU tend to fall in love with AU.