Where does Auburn need to steal a game?

[meh130 1,043]

If we beat Penn State, Missouri becomes a trap game. If we beat Penn State and Mizzou, LSU becomes a trap game. Georgia will crush us then we go to Oxford. Will we bounce back or take back-to-back losses? Arkansas becomes a swing game. We could get an emotional win in Oxford to come back and lose to Arkansas. We could lose to Ole Miss and take it out on Arkansas. Or we could start sliding.

There are a lot of opportunities for a spiraling decline in 2022. It is not impossible to see an 8 loss slide from Penn State to Texas A&M. It is also not impossible to see us enter the A&M game with only one loss.

The real question is will we see consistency, at a team level, this year? This is not something we have had in a long time, even in years where we had relative success.

[W.E.D 11,070]

On 5/28/2022 at 10:21 AM, DAG said:

Definitely need to win at home against penn state . That would bring in a lot of momentum.  
 

The thing is , I consider a lot of these games 50-50 with the exception of UGA and Bama. My concern is can we make the standard plays and close out. Last year we left so many points on the board because we just could not make the standard plays. Lastly, the staff needs to get over the inconsistency between the 1st half and the second. That is not the DNA of a well coached team. 

Yeah it's so close.  I think our range is anywhere between 3-8 and 10-2.

Hope year 2 in both systems help.

[HAPvsOA 287]

50 minutes ago, W.E.D said:

Yeah it's so close.  I think our range is anywhere between 3-8 and 10-2.

Hope year 2 in both systems help.

I don't think Harsin can survive if it's 5 wins or fewer. So he's going to have to deliver on that QB developer rep from his past. I am excited about our new receivers being able to complement our existing receivers & TE's. Demonstrating a real passing threat is huge to opening up things for Tank & Hunter, which will be huge to making things easier for the QB. All that to say, I expect more of a scripted attack than with Bo and a much more tailored attack specifically for Penn State & Missouri. 

I expect Harsin & Kiesau to script 3-4 quick to mid range passing plays tailored for each opponent that his QBs & pass catchers can execute well in their sleep to use on the 1st 2 drives. So if the O-line & Tank can get some yards to shorten the chains, that'll open up things for the rest of the playbook later.

Edited June 7, 2022 by HAPvsOA

[W.E.D 11,070]

25 minutes ago, HAPvsOA said:

I don't think Harsin can survive if it's 5 wins or fewer. So he's going to have to deliver on that QB developer rep from his past. I am excited about our new receivers being able to complement our existing receivers & TE's. Demonstrating a real passing threat is huge to opening up things for Tank & Hunter, which will be huge to making things easier for the QB. All that to say, I expect more of a scripted attack than with Bo and a much more tailored attack specifically for Penn State & Missouri. 

I expect Harsin & Kiesau to script 3-4 quick to mid range passing plays tailored for each opponent that his QBs & pass catchers can execute well in their sleep to use on the 1st 2 drives. So if the O-line & Tank can get some yards to shorten the chains, that'll open up things for the rest of the playbook later.

I agree, with a caveat...he only survives if he has an elite recruiting class on 11/28.  I'm not sure I see that happening.  I'm not sure we'll be much better than last year.

[cbo 7,865]

1 hour ago, W.E.D said:

I agree, with a caveat...he only survives if he has an elite recruiting class on 11/28.  I'm not sure I see that happening.  I'm not sure we'll be much better than last year.

Yeah, I’m losing patience with recruiting. Last year it was wait for signing day, then wait for the transfer portal. All along, it’s been wait for 2023. 

We are currently 13th in the SEC. Time to start seeing results. 

[W.E.D 11,070]

2 hours ago, cbo said:

Yeah, I’m losing patience with recruiting. Last year it was wait for signing day, then wait for the transfer portal. All along, it’s been wait for 2023. 

We are currently 13th in the SEC. Time to start seeing results. 

Yeah I'm not really worried about rankings right now, Vandy is way ahead of us with 5 3* kids.

But numbers are really low right now.  We have a ton of work to do before Labor Day. If you demand we wait until seeing a product on yhe field, we're going yo be so far behind. 

Idk, I was pretty excited about the 23 class.  Staff put in so much effort last year.  We're going to get shut out of the top 10 in state and I'm not sure if we have any true locks after that. In a year without a class limit, we probably need to sign 40 guys between HS and portal kids

[Rednilla 5,391]

5 hours ago, W.E.D said:

I agree, with a caveat...he only survives if he has an elite recruiting class on 11/28.  I'm not sure I see that happening.  I'm not sure we'll be much better than last year.

He's not going to have an elite recruiting class this year. I still think we've got more than just a fighting chance at a top 15 class even with just 7-8 wins regular season.

But we're not going to get elite recruiting classes unless the NIL money is there. The NIL money isn't going to be there unless the financial brokers believe Harsin has what it takes to put Auburn where we want to be, so unless Harsin pulls a rabbit out of his hat and gets 9-10 wins in the regular season, then I find it unlikely he's going to get the support necessary to have an elite recruiting class *next* season, either.

[Rednilla 5,391]

3 hours ago, cbo said:

Yeah, I’m losing patience with recruiting. Last year it was wait for signing day, then wait for the transfer portal. All along, it’s been wait for 2023. 

We are currently 13th in the SEC. Time to start seeing results. 

How long have you been following recruiting closely? The time is shorter now with the early signing period, but there's still a pretty good while before I'm going to be overly concerned with where we are recruiting wise. We've got a LONG way to go with recruiting.

[cbo 7,865]

55 minutes ago, W.E.D said:

Yeah I'm not really worried about rankings right now, Vandy is way ahead of us with 5 3* kids.

But numbers are really low right now.  We have a ton of work to do before Labor Day. If you demand we wait until seeing a product on yhe field, we're going yo be so far behind. 

Idk, I was pretty excited about the 23 class.  Staff put in so much effort last year.  We're going to get shut out of the top 10 in state and I'm not sure if we have any true locks after that. In a year without a class limit, we probably need to sign 40 guys between HS and portal kids

I know what you are saying about rankings and Vandy. It's normally not wise to compare classes this early, when some teams have 11 commits and others have 2. Bama is ranked low because they have few commits, but no one is worried about how they will finish. 

At the same time, our low commitment numbers and subsequent low ranking are illustrative of a point. In fact, the point you made. It's time to bring guys in. It's never been easier to flip a roster and I feel like a golden opportunity is being squandered. I can't buy this "being selective" story anymore. 

I've been searching for positive signs in recruiting for a while and my logical brain isn't finding any. I'm not talking about increased high school visits or making a recruit's top 5. I'm looking for actual results. Harsin hasn't landed a single top 100 recruit or the equivalent in the transfer portal. This is Auburn. Get it done. 

 

 

[W.E.D 11,070]

1 minute ago, Rednilla said:

How long have you been following recruiting closely? The time is shorter now with the early signing period, but there's still a pretty good while before I'm going to be overly concerned with where we are recruiting wise. We've got a LONG way to go with recruiting.

I mean, if Harsin is 15th again, he'll have the worst full year class of our last few head coaches by a wide margin.

[cbo 7,865]

4 minutes ago, Rednilla said:

How long have you been following recruiting closely? The time is shorter now with the early signing period, but there's still a pretty good while before I'm going to be overly concerned with where we are recruiting wise. We've got a LONG way to go with recruiting.

I've been following recruiting closely for the past 15 years. I've spent way more time on it than I care to admit. 

I followed it last year. I followed the transfer portal. I'm basing my opinion on patterns and logic. How about you?

 

[Rednilla 5,391]

Just now, W.E.D said:

I mean, if Harsin is 15th again, he'll have the worst full year class of our last few head coaches by a wide margin.

No Auburn head coach before him had to deal with NIL, either.

[AUwent 3,756]

7 minutes ago, Rednilla said:

No Auburn head coach before him had to deal with NIL, either.

Are we even capable of signing a top 10 class under NIL now? If NIL is going to keep us from ever being competitive in the SEC again, time to seek application to the Sun Belt.

Edited June 8, 2022 by AUwent

[W.E.D 11,070]

2 minutes ago, cbo said:

I know what you are saying about rankings and Vandy. It's normally not wise to compare classes this early, when some teams have 11 commits and others have 2. Bama is ranked low because they have few commits, but no one is worried about how they will finish. 

At the same time, our low commitment numbers and subsequent low ranking are illustrative of a point. In fact, the point you made. It's time to bring guys in. It's never been easier to flip a roster and I feel like a golden opportunity is being squandered. I can't buy this "being selective" story anymore. 

I've been searching for positive signs in recruiting for a while and my logical brain isn't finding any. I'm not talking about increased high school visits or making a recruit's top 5. I'm looking for actual results. Harsin hasn't landed a single top 100 recruit or the equivalent in the transfer portal. This is Auburn. Get it done. 

Yeah I agree.  No need to worry about Bama, they will get theirs.  We struggled to get players last year and our top 3 HS players are b/c Bama dropped a kid and LSU self destructed.  Our 4th or 5ht highest rated kid in the class isn't even going to play football.

I had some higher hopes for the '23 class.  We'll see how it shakes out, but I'm confidence is weakening.  And you're right, it's not impossible as many are making it out to recruit to Auburn.  We've done it multiple times in the past.

[Rednilla 5,391]

1 minute ago, cbo said:

I've been following recruiting closely for the past 15 years. I've spent way more time on it than I care to admit. 

I followed it last year. I followed the transfer portal. I'm basing my opinion on patterns and logic. How about you?

 

Fair enough. I've been following recruiting pretty closely since the now infamous 7 coach visit swayed Carnell Williams to come to Auburn instead of going to Tennessee. Pretty sure that was 2000.

However, it's a valid point that we're still exceedingly early in the recruiting process. I hear you about wanting progress in the recruiting ranks, and you're not wrong, exactly...it's just that it seems like you're getting your hopes up about hearing solid information that is positive on the recruiting front, and if you don't get it, you're going to think the worst...

[W.E.D 11,070]

8 minutes ago, Rednilla said:

No Auburn head coach before him had to deal with NIL, either.

Yes, and just like then everyone made excuses about other schools buying players and Auburn being clean...yet we still got top players.

[W.E.D 11,070]

1 minute ago, Rednilla said:

However, it's a valid point that we're still exceedingly early in the recruiting process.

Loads of kids have already taken multiple visits.  We're basically in early October going off kids visit timelines and NSD being in December.

[Rednilla 5,391]

1 minute ago, AUwent said:

Are we even capable of signing a top 10 class under NIL now? If NIL is going to keep us from ever being competitive in the SEC again, time to seek application to the Sun Belt.

Oh for the love of...yes, of course we're capable of signing a top 10 class under the NIL. But the head coach needs more support than he's been getting, because apparently he wasn't giving the crowd that offers such support enough access. I'm told he's rectified the situation, but I suspect the money people are going to want to see more than they've seen from Harsin before they start forking over big chunks of change.

[Rednilla 5,391]

1 minute ago, W.E.D said:

We're basically in early October going off kids visit timelines and NSD being in December.

Are you talking about compared to the way it was before early signing day? Because I *did* mention that, you know.

[e808 3,028]

6 minutes ago, AUwent said:

Are we even capable of signing a top 10 class under NIL now? If NIL is going to keep us from ever being competitive in the SEC again, time to seek application to the Sun Belt.

I am not buying the blame the NIL. Yes it’s part of it but if u can recruit u can recruit.

[AUwent 3,756]

3 minutes ago, e808 said:

I am not buying the blame the NIL. Yes it’s part of it but if u can recruit u can recruit.

I hope so! I've definitely seen arguments that it's not about the coaches anymore, just "the Benjamins" (aka from NIL).

Edited June 8, 2022 by AUwent

[cbo 7,865]

20 minutes ago, Rednilla said:

No Auburn head coach before him had to deal with NIL, either.

It's amazing how many excuses fans will make for a coach they love for being a no-nonsense, no-excuse guy. 

[W.E.D 11,070]

3 minutes ago, Rednilla said:

Are you talking about compared to the way it was before early signing day? Because I *did* mention that, you know.

Yes.  You're speaking out of both sides of your mouth (not meaning this combatively).  

Youv'e said we got a long way to go, but also the timeline has moved up so much.  That's really conflicting considering how many kids are taking summer visits vs before.  The timeline is so compressed.

I'm not calling doom yet...but I'm am starting to get a bit nervous. 

[Rednilla 5,391]

1 minute ago, e808 said:

I am not buying the blame the NIL. Yes it’s part of it but if u can recruit u can recruit.

It's not all the NIL, you're right, but it's a huge part of it. Harsin can recruit, but he's not the recruiting god that Saban is. (I say that semi-mockingly, but his number one asset as a coach is his ability to recruit.)

At least, not yet. And maybe he never will be. But he's not a bad recruiter, and he has a definite appeal to blue collar type players.

[e808 3,028]

2 minutes ago, AUwent said:

I hope so!

The last two staffs had some great recruiters. Might not have been the greatest on the X’s and O’s depending on which side of the ball but they could recruit