Where does Auburn need to steal a game?

[cbo 7,864]

13 minutes ago, Rednilla said:

Fair enough. I've been following recruiting pretty closely since the now infamous 7 coach visit swayed Carnell Williams to come to Auburn instead of going to Tennessee. Pretty sure that was 2000.

However, it's a valid point that we're still exceedingly early in the recruiting process. I hear you about wanting progress in the recruiting ranks, and you're not wrong, exactly...it's just that it seems like you're getting your hopes up about hearing solid information that is positive on the recruiting front, and if you don't get it, you're going to think the worst...

Yes, that's exactly where I am. Losing patience, as I said in my original post. 

Not exactly getting my hopes up, though. I liked Harsin, originally. I thought he was a good hire. I haven't liked his tenure thus far. After the last couple years, I am now at a point where he needs to prove it. 

[W.E.D 11,070]

2 minutes ago, Rednilla said:

blue collar type players.

lmao

[NWALA Tiger 3,535]

4 minutes ago, W.E.D said:

Yes.  You're speaking out of both sides of your mouth (not meaning this combatively).  

Youv'e said we got a long way to go, but also the timeline has moved up so much.  That's really conflicting considering how many kids are taking summer visits vs before.  The timeline is so compressed.

I'm not calling doom yet...but I'm am starting to get a bit nervous. 

I tend to agree with you. I've said Harsin deserves time. But with NSD basically moving to Dec, it moves everything up a couple months... We need some top notch commitments b4 the summer is over, no time to wait to see how this season goes . Hay will be in the barn by then

[Rednilla 5,391]

4 minutes ago, W.E.D said:

Yes.  You're speaking out of both sides of your mouth (not meaning this combatively).  

Youv'e said we got a long way to go, but also the timeline has moved up so much.  That's really conflicting considering how many kids are taking summer visits vs before.  The timeline is so compressed.

I'm not calling doom yet...but I'm am starting to get a bit nervous. 

I didn't say the timeline has moved up so much. It's two months. That's also the amount of time that we still have until college football season starts.

To wit, how many prospects commit every week? I honestly don't know, but I suspect it's not many at this time of year. And if I'm correct about that, why would you expect us to get rock solid recruiting evidence that things are going right when there's so little going on that isn't behind the scenes?

[cbo 7,864]

17 minutes ago, e808 said:

I am not buying the blame the NIL. Yes it’s part of it but if u can recruit u can recruit.

I guess we can't compete against the NIL programs set up at those juggernauts like Missouri, Kentucky, South Carolina, MS State ... 

[W.E.D 11,070]

2 minutes ago, NWALA Tiger said:

I tend to agree with you. I've said Harsin deserves time. But with NSD basically moving to Dec, it moves everything up a couple months... We need some top notch commitments b4 the summer is over, no time to wait to see how this season goes . Hay will be in the barn by then

Most sites thought we'd have 4 kids by the end of spring and made promises of a few silents.  Doesn't seem they materialized.  Looking at classes before Harsin, we usually had double digit commits by the start of the season.  I'm not sure we're going to get close to that mark.

[AUwent 3,756]

1 hour ago, e808 said:

The last two staffs had some great recruiters. Might not have been the greatest on the X’s and O’s depending on which side of the ball but they could recruit 

A big part of why I have some unpopular opinions if we do need a regime change. If the current regime doesn't work out, we need someone capable of assembling a group of strong recruiters. And yes, I think Dell could be that guy if we can't get anyone better.

Edited June 8, 2022 by AUwent

[W.E.D 11,070]

3 minutes ago, Rednilla said:

when there's so little going on that isn't behind the scenes?

More excuses. 

Kids are committing to schools (not Auburn) right now.  It's happening daily.

Edited June 8, 2022 by W.E.D

[cbo 7,864]

5 minutes ago, Rednilla said:

I didn't say the timeline has moved up so much. It's two months. That's also the amount of time that we still have until college football season starts.

To wit, how many prospects commit every week? I honestly don't know, but I suspect it's not many at this time of year. And if I'm correct about that, why would you expect us to get rock solid recruiting evidence that things are going right when there's so little going on that isn't behind the scenes?

A good place to start would be comparing our number of commits vs. the other SEC schools. 

[Rednilla 5,391]

10 minutes ago, cbo said:

Yes, that's exactly where I am. Losing patience, as I said in my original post. 

Not exactly getting my hopes up, though. I liked Harsin, originally. I thought he was a good hire. I haven't liked his tenure thus far. After the last couple years, I am now at a point where he needs to prove it. 

Well, if it makes you feel any better, I'm about to the point where I think if we don't win at least 8 games, Harsin may not lose his job, but he'll be on the thinnest of thin ice. And I may be cheering for Harsin in particular more than any other die-hard, because I like finally having an inside connection that isn't related to this message board.

[cbo 7,864]

18 minutes ago, Rednilla said:

It's not all the NIL, you're right, but it's a huge part of it. Harsin can recruit, but he's not the recruiting god that Saban is. (I say that semi-mockingly, but his number one asset as a coach is his ability to recruit.)

At least, not yet. And maybe he never will be. But he's not a bad recruiter, and he has a definite appeal to blue collar type players.

Actually, all the evidence points to Harsin being a bad recruiter of the Southeast. I hope that changes. 

He had some excellent recruiters on staff, but most of them are gone now. 

[cbo 7,864]

5 minutes ago, Rednilla said:

Well, if it makes you feel any better, I'm about to the point where I think if we don't win at least 8 games, Harsin may not lose his job, but he'll be on the thinnest of thin ice. And I may be cheering for Harsin in particular more than any other die-hard, because I like finally having an inside connection that isn't related to this message board.

That makes perfect sense and I appreciate you saying that. 

I don't think Harsin wins 8 games this year, but I hope he does. 

Also, none of this makes me feel better. Haha

[Rednilla 5,391]

1 minute ago, cbo said:

A good place to start would be comparing our number of commits vs. the other SEC schools. 

I can't speak for anything anyone on any other site said...or, for that matter, what anyone on this site might have said, because I didn't see it. But we've had a pretty unique set of circumstances beset us over the last couple of years. I'm just trying to encourage you to hold on to a little bit of hope.

[Rednilla 5,391]

13 minutes ago, cbo said:

I don't think Harsin wins 8 games this year, but I hope he does. 

If I were to honestly answer the question about where Auburn needs to steal a game, I think it's Penn State. Beat the Nittany Lions and 10 regular season wins isn't so insurmountable. Lose to them and it's hard to see 8 reg season wins unless pretty much everything else goes right for us.

(I know what I said about stealing the Iron Bowl to win the West and get a rematch with Georgia in the SECCG, but for anyone confused, while I don't think much of anything is impossible with Auburn, that was mostly tongue-in-cheek.)

[cbo 7,864]

6 minutes ago, Rednilla said:

If I were to honestly answer the question about where Auburn needs to steal a game, I think it's Penn State. Beat the Nittany Lions and 10 regular season wins isn't so insurmountable. Lose to them and it's hard to see 8 reg season wins unless pretty much everything else goes right for us.

(I know what I said about stealing the Iron Bowl to win the West and get a rematch with Georgia in the SECCG, but for anyone confused, while I don't think much of anything is impossible with Auburn, that was mostly tongue-in-cheek.)

Man, you seem like a good guy and I like the way you've approached this debate (other than asking how long I've followed recruiting, which assumes I'm a novice after I only made solid points).

But if you think 10 wins is possible, I don't know what to tell you. I agree Penn State is a pivotal game and one we have a chance to win. But the ceiling is 8 wins. I would be thrilled with that. 

[AUwent 3,756]

The problem is that we have a lot of seniors this year. Now if we end up killing it in the TP, this doesn't have to be a problem. But if not, it doesn't exactly bode well if in '23 we need to take a step forward.

Edited June 8, 2022 by AUwent

[Didba 5,256]

1 hour ago, W.E.D said:

lmao

blue-collar = ...

[e808 3,028]

47 minutes ago, cbo said:

That makes perfect sense and I appreciate you saying that. 

I don't think Harsin wins 8 games this year, but I hope he does. 

Also, none of this makes me feel better. Haha

Honestly, I don’t see how Auburn wins less than 8 games. The fact that Vegas has the bar so low really scares me. Auburn still has enough studs to do it . Health will play a big roll and coaching. Coaching lost at least 2 maybe 3 games last year. Arky, Ole Miss and State has lost to Auburn more often than not. Just need a fast start out the gate

[Rednilla 5,391]

23 minutes ago, cbo said:

But if you think 10 wins is possible, I don't know what to tell you. I agree Penn State is a pivotal game and one we have a chance to win. But the ceiling is 8 wins. I would be thrilled with that. 

I respectfully disagree. I mean, it'll take a lot, yeah. It'll take the O-line being better than they have been with no one new (of whom I am aware, that is) vying for time. It'll take Calzada taking instruction about footwork and mechanics from Harsin better than he took it from Jimbo. It'll take at least two wide receivers not named Jackson stepping up as play makers. It'll take the defensive line living up to the "scary good" billing my friend called them when we got that last transfer DT. It'll take the defensive secondary replacing an NFL corner and not missing a beat, which is a REALLY tall order.

And it will take a very fortunate season, health wise, for the starters and key contributors.

If all of those things happen, I do think we have a shot at 10 wins. Would you agree, or still no?

[au302 2,669]

What's funny is that the lower rated commits of this past class seem to be the ones that are drawing the most excitement right now. I have seen a lot of talk on Fair, Geriner, Brown, and Sledge. All 3 stars, at least when we went after them.

And no, I'm not advocating ignoring 5 stars. We're not doing that. We whiffed on our share last year. What I am advocating for is going after the players that project best in college, even if they may be raw in HS, and not the ones that are studs in HS but have low college ceilings. Gus did that too much and it burned us

[e808 3,028]

16 minutes ago, au302 said:

What's funny is that the lower rated commits of this past class seem to be the ones that are drawing the most excitement right now. I have seen a lot of talk on Fair, Geriner, Brown, and Sledge. All 3 stars, at least when we went after them.

And no, I'm not advocating ignoring 5 stars. We're not doing that. We whiffed on our share last year. What I am advocating for is going after the players that project best in college, even if they may be raw in HS, and not the ones that are studs in HS but have low college ceilings. Gus did that too much and it burned us

Think about it this way with not the greatest X’s and O’s Coach Auburn won 8 or 9 games  on the regular. Now imagine what could have been with better coaching. Those high rated players kept Auburn competitive outside of Georgia. Still don’t understand that. It’s like UGA has Auburns number.

Gonna need talent to compete in the SEC. There is only so much coaching up u can do. Otherwise if there is a big talent gap all things considered the more talented team will win more often than not

[cbo 7,864]

2 hours ago, Rednilla said:

I respectfully disagree. I mean, it'll take a lot, yeah. It'll take the O-line being better than they have been with no one new (of whom I am aware, that is) vying for time. It'll take Calzada taking instruction about footwork and mechanics from Harsin better than he took it from Jimbo. It'll take at least two wide receivers not named Jackson stepping up as play makers. It'll take the defensive line living up to the "scary good" billing my friend called them when we got that last transfer DT. It'll take the defensive secondary replacing an NFL corner and not missing a beat, which is a REALLY tall order.

And it will take a very fortunate season, health wise, for the starters and key contributors.

If all of those things happen, I do think we have a shot at 10 wins. Would you agree, or still no?

Of course I agree, if all those things happen, we could get to 10 wins. But there's no way all those things happen. You can't use the magical, best case scenario for your prediction. I appreciate your optimism, but let's live in the real world. 

I saw you pushing @Mikeyfor a bet on overall wins/losses. I hate to bet against my beloved Auburn, but I would take the under on 10 wins all day. Because I like money. I bet you won't take this bet. 

[cbo 7,864]

1 hour ago, au302 said:

What's funny is that the lower rated commits of this past class seem to be the ones that are drawing the most excitement right now. I have seen a lot of talk on Fair, Geriner, Brown, and Sledge. All 3 stars, at least when we went after them.

And no, I'm not advocating ignoring 5 stars. We're not doing that. We whiffed on our share last year. What I am advocating for is going after the players that project best in college, even if they may be raw in HS, and not the ones that are studs in HS but have low college ceilings. Gus did that too much and it burned us

They are getting the most hype because that's pretty much all we have. You have a lot of great posts, so I am not trying to be a dick to you. But I can't even imagine having the debate about stars in 2022. 

You need playmakers on the roster to beat UGA and UA. The best player on our team is also the highest ranked recruit out of HS. Tank. 

 

 

[e808 3,028]

1 hour ago, cbo said:

They are getting the most hype because that's pretty much all we have. You have a lot of great posts, so I am not trying to be a dick to you. But I can't even imagine having the debate about stars in 2022. 

You need playmakers on the roster to beat UGA and UA. The best player on our team is also the highest ranked recruit out of HS. Tank. 

 

 

As a matter of fact all of the highest rated players on the team are from the previous regime and they will be gone after this year. 

[W.E.D 11,070]

7 hours ago, Didba said:

blue-collar = ...

The false  bravado blue collar shtick has to stop.  Idk what it is with Auburn fans always trying to push nonsense like that.

What's more, if it was true I'd imagine we could have attracted more than 18 kids in last years class.

Harsin doesn't help with his pointless "can use yhe elevator" bc somehow walking up a flight of stairs will make us a championship team.

Edited June 8, 2022 by W.E.D