ESPN : Auburn’s Bowl Chances

[toddc 13,194]

ESPN analytics break down Auburn's upcoming season, chances to earn bowl eligibility

Justin Hokanson

Jarquez Hunter (Photo by Getty Images)

AUBURN — ESPN’s Football Power Indexthinks Auburn is a top-40 football team entering the 2023 season. The Tigers rank No. 39 in the first FPI of the year. That’s good for 11th in the SEC, one spot ahead of Missouri for 12th in the league.

ESPN’s FPI predicts Auburn to win 5.8 games and lose 6.2 games. The FPI gives Auburn a 58 percent chance of winning six games.

Alabama, Georgia and LSU rank 2nd, 3rd and 4th in the initial rankings. Tennessee ranks 12th, Ole Miss ranks 16th, Florida ranks 18th, Texas A&M ranks 19th, Kentucky ranks 28th, Arkansas ranks 30th, Mississippi State ranks 32nd, Missouri ranks 40th, South Carolina ranks 42nd and Vanderbilt ranks 73rd.

Here’s a game-by-game analysis of Auburn’s season according to the FPI:

September 2 vs. UMass: 97 percent chance to win

— Who will start at quarterback in Auburn’s season opener and Hugh Freeze’s first game? It shouldn’t matter against UMass.

September 9 at Cal: 44 percent chance to win

— What an odd second game of the Freeze tenure, with the Tigers traveling to Berkeley, Calif. for a non-conference game. Difficult task in week two in the first road test for a new-look coaching staff and team.

September 16 vs. Samford: 98 percent chance to win

— If Auburn can enter this game 2-0, they should build momentum with a third straight win before starting SEC play.

September 23 at Texas A&M: 24 percent chance to win

— The Aggies have more talent, but haven’t proven overly dominant under Jimbo Fisher. Carnell Williams and Co. knocked off the reeling Aggies last season at the end of the season. Bobby Petrino returns to the SEC calling plays for A&M.

September 30 vs. Georgia: 9 percent chance to win

— Freeze’s first major test against arguably the nation’s best team and a rival that’s completely dominated Auburn over the last ~15 years. How long can Auburn hang?

October 14 at LSU: 14 percent chance to win

— Auburn surrendered a 17-0 first-half lead to LSU last season, ultimately losing 21-17. LSU will be more talented and more settled in their identity under Brian Kelly this time around.

October 21 vs. Ole Miss: 34 percent chance to win

— Bryan Harsin’s only signature win was beating Lane Kiffin and top-10 Ole Miss at home two seasons ago. The Tigers fought hard last season, but gave up 500-plus rushing yards in a loss. Kiffin’s return to Auburn against Freeze will have plenty of other storylines, too.

October 28 vs. Mississippi State: 55 percent chance to win

— In Carnell Williams’ first game as interim head coach last season, Auburn erased a 24-6 halftime deficit, outscoring State 27-9 in the second half. The Tigers lost in overtime. Will Rogers is back for the Bulldogs under new head coach Zach Arnett.

November 4 at Vanderbilt: 69 percent chance to win

— This is currently Auburn’s best chance for a SEC win. Vanderbilt started to play better late last season, going 2-2 in a four-game span in conference before losing to Tennessee 56-0 to end the season.

November 11 at Arkansas: 33 percent chance to win

— Auburn was crushed in this matchup last fall, leading to Harsin’s firing two days later.

November 18 vs. New Mexico State: 96 percent chance to win

— The usual non-conference game before Alabama this season brings the Aggies to town. It’s a “get right” game after two straight road conference games and leading into the Iron Bowl.

November 25 vs. Alabama: 9 percent chance to win

— Alabama will be far more talented, but by season’s end Freeze and Co. have created semblance of an offensive identity, this could be closer than the experts think.

[CoffeeTiger 5,228]

At a quick glance the only thing I can see that I'd really question or disagree with is the 40% win probability against Cal. Yes its the first road game with a new coaching staff, but all the same cal is a lower tier team in a bad confrence...it hasn't recruited well in recent years, and many G-5 schools have a more challenging home game environment than Cal does. 

I'd probably put AU at a 55%-60% or so win probability for Cal.

[W.E.D 11,070]

32 minutes ago, toddc said:

September 9 at Cal: 44 percent chance to win

— What an odd second game of the Freeze tenure, with the Tigers traveling to Berkeley, Calif. for a non-conference game. Difficult task in week two in the first road test for a new-look coaching staff and team.

Seems a bit absurd to put us as an underdog in that game.

[TexasTiger 13,138]

41 minutes ago, toddc said:

ESPN analytics break down Auburn's upcoming season, chances to earn bowl eligibility

Justin Hokanson

Jarquez Hunter (Photo by Getty Images)

AUBURN — ESPN’s Football Power Indexthinks Auburn is a top-40 football team entering the 2023 season. The Tigers rank No. 39 in the first FPI of the year. That’s good for 11th in the SEC, one spot ahead of Missouri for 12th in the league.

ESPN’s FPI predicts Auburn to win 5.8 games and lose 6.2 games. The FPI gives Auburn a 58 percent chance of winning six games.

Alabama, Georgia and LSU rank 2nd, 3rd and 4th in the initial rankings. Tennessee ranks 12th, Ole Miss ranks 16th, Florida ranks 18th, Texas A&M ranks 19th, Kentucky ranks 28th, Arkansas ranks 30th, Mississippi State ranks 32nd, Missouri ranks 40th, South Carolina ranks 42nd and Vanderbilt ranks 73rd.

Here’s a game-by-game analysis of Auburn’s season according to the FPI:

September 2 vs. UMass: 97 percent chance to win

— Who will start at quarterback in Auburn’s season opener and Hugh Freeze’s first game? It shouldn’t matter against UMass.

September 9 at Cal: 44 percent chance to win

— What an odd second game of the Freeze tenure, with the Tigers traveling to Berkeley, Calif. for a non-conference game. Difficult task in week two in the first road test for a new-look coaching staff and team.

September 16 vs. Samford: 98 percent chance to win

— If Auburn can enter this game 2-0, they should build momentum with a third straight win before starting SEC play.

September 23 at Texas A&M: 24 percent chance to win

— The Aggies have more talent, but haven’t proven overly dominant under Jimbo Fisher. Carnell Williams and Co. knocked off the reeling Aggies last season at the end of the season. Bobby Petrino returns to the SEC calling plays for A&M.

September 30 vs. Georgia: 9 percent chance to win

— Freeze’s first major test against arguably the nation’s best team and a rival that’s completely dominated Auburn over the last ~15 years. How long can Auburn hang?

October 14 at LSU: 14 percent chance to win

— Auburn surrendered a 17-0 first-half lead to LSU last season, ultimately losing 21-17. LSU will be more talented and more settled in their identity under Brian Kelly this time around.

October 21 vs. Ole Miss: 34 percent chance to win

— Bryan Harsin’s only signature win was beating Lane Kiffin and top-10 Ole Miss at home two seasons ago. The Tigers fought hard last season, but gave up 500-plus rushing yards in a loss. Kiffin’s return to Auburn against Freeze will have plenty of other storylines, too.

October 28 vs. Mississippi State: 55 percent chance to win

— In Carnell Williams’ first game as interim head coach last season, Auburn erased a 24-6 halftime deficit, outscoring State 27-9 in the second half. The Tigers lost in overtime. Will Rogers is back for the Bulldogs under new head coach Zach Arnett.

November 4 at Vanderbilt: 69 percent chance to win

— This is currently Auburn’s best chance for a SEC win. Vanderbilt started to play better late last season, going 2-2 in a four-game span in conference before losing to Tennessee 56-0 to end the season.

November 11 at Arkansas: 33 percent chance to win

— Auburn was crushed in this matchup last fall, leading to Harsin’s firing two days later.

November 18 vs. New Mexico State: 96 percent chance to win

— The usual non-conference game before Alabama this season brings the Aggies to town. It’s a “get right” game after two straight road conference games and leading into the Iron Bowl.

November 25 vs. Alabama: 9 percent chance to win

— Alabama will be far more talented, but by season’s end Freeze and Co. have created semblance of an offensive identity, this could be closer than the experts think.

If we only win 5.8 games we don’t break even.

But who cares — it’s just a bunch of damn mathematicians! 😉

[icanthearyou 4,464]

I estimate our chances to become bowl eligible at somewhere around,,, 100%. 

We have gone from a coach with no discernible strengths to, a coach with no discernible weaknesses. 

[cbo 7,979]

I will bet anyone on here a thousand bucks that we don't win 5.8 games. 

[TexasTiger 13,138]

2 minutes ago, cbo said:

I will bet anyone on here a thousand bucks that we don't win 5.8 games. 

I’m guessing the 6th win will only provide 80% satisfaction.

[KansasTiger 3,261]

Seems absurd to me this even exists. With the amount of portal activity that has taken place and is still to take place, they can't possibly put enough actual data into this model to make this better than someone wild guess. 

[au701948 1,009]

7 minutes ago, KansasTiger said:

Seems absurd to me this even exists. With the amount of portal activity that has taken place and is still to take place, they can't possibly put enough actual data into this model to make this better than someone wild guess. 

For the most part you are on point. No genuinely deep meaning before all the dust settles late this summer.

[StuckMic91 369]

7 minutes ago, KansasTiger said:

Seems absurd to me this even exists. With the amount of portal activity that has taken place and is still to take place, they can't possibly put enough actual data into this model to make this better than someone wild guess. 

This right here. It’s a media darling thing. Look at how much love Texas A&M gets every year just to fall flat. Bama always reloads but they are having issues at QB and we get them at home. Until recently “Harsin” Arkansas, Ole Miss, Miss State were typically jokes. I’m not saying it couldn’t play out as stated above but it’s nothing better than a wild guess from people trying to get clicks.

[passthebiscuits 6,886]

I like being undervalued. I got us as 8-4. 

[aubiefifty 17,102]

37 minutes ago, cbo said:

I will bet anyone on here a thousand bucks that we don't win 5.8 games. 

i will bet you  a hundred bucks cash we win 6 or 7 games. we send the money to a mod like bird or a trusted third party that will not screw anyone. also the loser has to get on the fam and eat crowing stating you do not crap about football. grins   what say yee? and this is in the spirit of fun for the record.

[aubiefifty 17,102]

1 hour ago, W.E.D said:

Seems a bit absurd to put us as an underdog in that game.

why? i never pay them any attention but i thought they lost their coach and have struggled?

[cbo 7,979]

15 minutes ago, aubiefifty said:

i will bet you  a hundred bucks cash we win 6 or 7 games. we send the money to a mod like bird or a trusted third party that will not screw anyone. also the loser has to get on the fam and eat crowing stating you do not crap about football. grins   what say yee? and this is in the spirit of fun for the record.

I actually predict 7 wins with the current roster. 
 

And who trusts @bigbird? 

[aubiefifty 17,102]

1 minute ago, cbo said:

I actually predict 7 wins with the current roster. 
 

And who trusts @bigbird? 

i trust bird. he is more than fair. when i mess up he is in my behind like a rat on a cheeto. wait that did not sound right. but come on cbo you are fudging. yes or no. you just said 5.8 wins so make up your mind. you woofed and i answered. and i live in poverty my auburn friend. but you can eat crow now if you wish.............

[W.E.D 11,070]

27 minutes ago, aubiefifty said:

why? i never pay them any attention but i thought they lost their coach and have struggled?

Cal is awful. A "tough away game" isn't a thing when they can't barely get to 50% capacity.  They were 2-7 in an awful PAC.

We'd crush them with Ashford completing 50% and running well

[aubiefifty 17,102]

2 minutes ago, W.E.D said:

Cal is awful. A "tough away game" isn't a thing when they can't barely get to 50% capacity.  They were 2-7 in an awful PAC.

We'd crush them with Ashford completing 50% and running well

thanx man.............

[CoffeeTiger 5,228]

1 hour ago, KansasTiger said:

Seems absurd to me this even exists. With the amount of portal activity that has taken place and is still to take place, they can't possibly put enough actual data into this model to make this better than someone wild guess. 

You're right. 

But 80% of offseason Football media is just guesses and predictions on what the next season will bring anyway. 

[bigbird 60,580]

1 hour ago, cbo said:

I actually predict 7 wins with the current roster. 
 

And who trusts @bigbird? 

[AUwent 3,778]

1 hour ago, W.E.D said:

Cal is awful. A "tough away game" isn't a thing when they can't barely get to 50% capacity.  They were 2-7 in an awful PAC.

We'd crush them with Ashford completing 50% and running well

They were the only team Colorado beat last year.

(I wish we'd have scheduled more OOC games like them!)

Edited April 20, 2023 by AUwent

[cbo 7,979]

2 hours ago, aubiefifty said:

i trust bird. he is more than fair. when i mess up he is in my behind like a rat on a cheeto. wait that did not sound right. but come on cbo you are fudging. yes or no. you just said 5.8 wins so make up your mind. you woofed and i answered. and i live in poverty my auburn friend. but you can eat crow now if you wish.............

It was a joke! Read it again. 

[zeroforwinger 445]

12-0

[woodford 3,678]

I’ve said it a few times now but Auburn will beat the hell out of Cal. Remember how hard they played the last few games of the year with a new HC? Well we will get that again but with a better OL and improved QB play. 
 

The media and analytics will be bearish on Auburn but I promise you Kirby, Kelly, and Saban know there will be a different Auburn team this year. 
 

This might be the biggest Auburn/OM game ever. 14 was huge but whew. I think CHF is going to show the world that Auburn made the right choice. I’m pumped man. This is awesome. I missed the hype!

[wdefromtx 3,159]

[AuCivilEng1 11,046]

Jesus. They only have us favored in 2 SEC game and that's not even a strong favorite. I think people are just buying into the Harsin era Auburn too much. I think we win 8 or 9 this year pretty comfortably.