SEC Programs

[LPTiger 5,173]

Think of how uncertain SEC programs are right now.    

East -- Smart continues to have a great program. Missouri -- Drink just won 10 games and is on the upswing. UT, in Heupel year 3, 8-4 overall, 4-4 in the SEC after winning 11 games last year. One of the 4 loses was to a 5 win Florida team.   In the four loses, they were outscored by 86 points.  UF, Mullen follows MCelwain's 4 win season with 10 wins, then 11, then 8 and then 5 and gets canned. Napier in year 2 wins 5 games and loses 7 including the first ever loss to Arky at home.  He is currently 11-14.   Kentucky had a solid year with 8 wins, but they lost to a 5 win South Carolina and in 3 other loses to Bama, Missou, and UGA, they were outscored by 83 points.  South Carolina, in Beamer's 3rd year, you beat Furman, Miss St., Jax State, Vandy and Kentucky for 5 wins after winning 15 in the prior 2 years. No need to discuss Vandy.

West -- Bama -- Saban keeps winning but the wheels are shaking a little.  And, your coach is 72 years old with 2 vacation houses and 80 car dealerships.  LSU, really solid year but do can you ever erase that memory of your coach "dancing" with that recruit.  Serious Cringe. Ole Miss -- another 10 win season but you got blasted by UGA, you lost to Bama again and your coach is goofy and doesn't like to recruit (and you just gave him a huge pay increase).  aTm, your boosters shuck out $100MM, and Kentucky's coach, publicly, tells you "no thanks."  If you are an AD and you pay out 3x the next largest buyout, shouldn't you have a better plan in place?  Miss St -- geez they couldn't even give the guy a full year.  Arky, Pittman year 4 and you win 4.

Hiring coaches who become successes is very much hit and miss. Look what Bama went through before Saban. Look at all of these SEC programs. Who can you say with confidence will be at their current school 5 years from now?

 

[PigskinPat 2,579]

Give me bama’s “shaky wheels” all day. 😂

[Gowebb11 9,382]

5 minutes ago, LPTiger said:

Think of how uncertain SEC programs are right now.    

East -- Smart continues to have a great program.   Missouri -- Drink just won 10 games and is on the upswing.   UT, in Heupel year 3, 8-4 overall, 4-4 in the SEC after winning 11 games last year.   One of the 4 loses was to a 5 win Florida team.   In the four loses, they were outscored by 86 points.    UF, Mullen follows MCelwain's 4 win season with 10 wins, then 11, then 8 and then 5 and gets canned.   Napier in year 2 wins 5 games and loses 7 including the first ever loss to Arky at home.    He is currently 11-14.   Kentucky had a solid year with 8 wins, but they lost to a 5 win South Carolina and in 3 other loses to Bama, Missou, and UGA, they were outscored by 83 points.   South Carolina, in Beamer's 3rd year, you beat Furman, Miss St., Jax State, Vandy and Kentucky for 5 wins after winning 15 in the prior 2 years.   No need to discuss Vandy.

West -- Bama -- Saban keeps winning but the wheels are shaking a little.  And, your coach is 72 years old with 2 vacation houses and 80 car dealerships.  LSU, really solid year but do can you ever erase that memory of your coach "dancing" with that recruit.   Serious Cringe.  Ole Miss -- another 10 win season but you got blasted by UGA, you lost to Bama again and your coach is goofy and doesn't like to recruit (and you just gave him a huge pay increase).    aTm, your boosters shuck out $100MM, and Kentucky's coach, publicly, tells you "no thanks."   If you are an AD and you pay out 3x the next largest buyout, shouldn't you have a better plan in place?   Miss St -- geez they couldn't even give the guy a full year.  Arky, Pittman year 4 and you win 4.

Hiring coaches who become successes is very much hit and miss.   Look what Bama went through before Saban.   Look at all of these SEC programs.   Who can you say with confidence will be at their current school 5 years from now?

 

Great post. Regarding LSU, how much is BK going to miss his 6th year senior QB?  He managed to lose 3 games with the nations best player. 
 

Your post is a reminder that the timing is excellent for AU to rise again to the SEC’s top tier. CHF needs a super strong signing day, and then a continuum of the the same the next few seasons.

 

[ScotsAU 1,343]

Chizik and Orgeron are evidence that things can change very quickly, and Chizik was a decade ago. So this is nothing new. 
I am kind of curious what the OP was trying to say here. That we could be at the top of the conference and dominating our opponents in a year or two? Sure. We could also be at the bottom, losing to Arkansas and MSU in a year or two by that logic.

[W.E.D 11,070]

1 hour ago, LPTiger said:

another 10 win season but you got blasted by UGA, you lost to Bama again 

One day this could be us.  

[AUwent 3,775]

Aside from against UAT, Ole Miss' record the last three years is a realistic goal to aspire to. 

Edited November 26, 2023 by AUwent

[ScotsAU 1,343]

Just now, AUwent said:

Aside from against UAT, Ole Miss' record the last three years is a realistic goal to aspire to. 

No it isn’t. Auburn has more resources and better prestige than OM. Saying that’s the expectation is complacency.

[AUwent 3,775]

8 minutes ago, ScotsAU said:

No it isn’t. Auburn has more resources and better prestige than OM. Saying that’s the expectation is complacency.

Being consistently in the expanded playoffs isn't complacency. Nick and Kirby have completely broke people's brains when it comes to expectations.

 

Here is how many times each team would've made it in under a 12-team playoff, since the start of the 4-team era.

Alabama: 9x (2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023)

Georgia: 7x (2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023)

Oklahoma: 6x (2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020)

Florida: 3x (2018, 2019, 2020)

Mississippi: 3x (2014, 2021, 2023)

LSU: 2x (2018, 2019)

Auburn: 1x (2017)

MSU: 1x (2014)

Missouri: 1x (2023)

Tennessee: 1x (2022)

Texas: 1x (2023)

TAMU: 1x (2020)

Arkansas, Kentucky, USCe, Vanderbilt: nada

 

Edited November 26, 2023 by AUwent

[LPTiger 5,173]

1 hour ago, ScotsAU said:

 
I am kind of curious what the OP was trying to say here. 

One was who can you say with confidence will be at their same program 5 years from now?   For me, Smart for sure and maybe Stoops.   The other thought in my head is how the game has changed with respect to patience with coaches.  Shug coached at AU for 25 years.   We named the stadium after him.   Halfway in his tenure he had 3 years where he only won 4 games.   Today, he would have been fired.   Look at Chiz -- in his 4 years he gave us the best season we have ever had and the worst one in 60 years so we let him go.   It isn't only in college football, I think society as a whole is more focused on the right now.

[ScotsAU 1,343]

38 minutes ago, AUwent said:

Being consistently in the expanded playoffs isn't complacency. Nick and Kirby have completely broke people's brains when it comes to expectations.

 

Here is how many times each team would've made it in under a 12-team playoff, since the start of the 4-team era.

Alabama: 9x (2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023)

Georgia: 7x (2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023)

Oklahoma: 6x (2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020)

Florida: 3x (2018, 2019, 2020)

Mississippi: 3x (2014, 2021, 2023)

LSU: 2x (2018, 2019)

Auburn: 1x (2017)

MSU: 1x (2014)

Missouri: 1x (2023)

Tennessee: 1x (2022)

Texas: 1x (2023)

TAMU: 1x (2020)

Arkansas, Kentucky, USCe, Vanderbilt: nada

 

In the playoff period, Auburn has consistently underperformed. Auburn funding and resource wise is top 15 in the country if not higher. Finishing in the top 12 should be a regular occurrence. Ole miss I don’t even think is top 25 in those things. We should be consistently beating ole miss and should finish higher than them in sec standings almost every year. To put this in perspective, the Auburn ole miss record is 35-12 Auburn. 1/4 of their wins against us have been in the last decade. And we historically have beat them 75% of the time. They are not on our level, and shouldn’t be doing better than us.

 

You’re showing what the numbers have looked like in the playoff era, not what they should look like. 

Edited November 26, 2023 by ScotsAU

[AUwent 3,775]

46 minutes ago, ScotsAU said:

In the playoff period, Auburn has consistently underperformed. Auburn funding and resource wise is top 15 in the country if not higher. Finishing in the top 12 should be a regular occurrence. Ole miss I don’t even think is top 25 in those things. We should be consistently beating ole miss and should finish higher than them in sec standings almost every year. To put this in perspective, the Auburn ole miss record is 35-12 Auburn. 1/4 of their wins against us have been in the last decade. And we historically have beat them 75% of the time. They are not on our level, and shouldn’t be doing better than us.

 

You’re showing what the numbers have looked like in the playoff era, not what they should look like. 

Oh I agree, by that metric we have underperformed--clearly, we should have at least one more playoff equivalent season in that mix. But I'm just showing why I think what OM has done is a realistic goal--because outside of those three, no one's really done any better. 

[Win4AU 4,054]

Seems like Texas A&M and Miss State may have made good hires today.  

[DAG 34,018]

4 hours ago, PigskinPat said:

Give me bama’s “shaky wheels” all day. 😂

Right ? That Tells you the unbelievable standards of Saban. Going back to the SEC championship as an underdog .

[Hank2020 3,217]

15 minutes ago, Win4AU said:

Seems like Texas A&M and Miss State may have made good hires today.  

Agree

[Auburn02 130]

4 hours ago, ScotsAU said:

I am kind of curious what the OP was trying to say here. That we could be at the top of the conference and dominating our opponents in a year or two? Sure. We could also be at the bottom, losing to Arkansas and MSU in a year or two by that logic.

My opinion is that he is simply saying there are no guarantees in this game regardless of who you hire. People want to pin a stigma on CHF that "we know who he is and he will always be that" as justification to not give us a chance or feel optimistic about a future under him, but look around at all the "sure thing" head coach hires and their current success (Jimbo, Dabo, Cristobal, etc) and it's obviously never that straightforward. The same people who want to assume Freeze's future at Auburn would likely have guaranteed A&M to have huge success when they hired Jimbo as well. 

 

That rambling probably doesn't make much sense, but my dinner's ready. 😅

Edited November 27, 2023 by Auburn02

[ScotsAU 1,343]

2 hours ago, AUwent said:

Oh I agree, by that metric we have underperformed--clearly, we should have at least one more playoff equivalent season in that mix. But I'm just showing why I think what OM has done is a realistic goal--because outside of those three, no one's really done any better. 

Devil’s advocate. Only 1 of those three programs has made it with different coaches. Georgia has only made it with Kirby. Bama has only made it with Saban. One explanation is that those programs have advantages that have made them successful. Another is that they just finally found a good coach that could elevate them to that level.  I thought UGA was nuts for firing Mark Richt when he had them relevant every year but just wasn’t reaching “elite” consistently. But look at what’s happened with Kirby. UGA and Bama chose not to accept above average, and made changes until they found their guy. Auburn is a good enough program to do that as well. Heck, during the Richt years, they had a slightly better record against us. But we were pretty much on even ground with them in terms of records and recruiting. 

[AUwent 3,775]

24 minutes ago, ScotsAU said:

Devil’s advocate. Only 1 of those three programs has made it with different coaches. Georgia has only made it with Kirby. Bama has only made it with Saban. One explanation is that those programs have advantages that have made them successful. Another is that they just finally found a good coach that could elevate them to that level.  I thought UGA was nuts for firing Mark Richt when he had them relevant every year but just wasn’t reaching “elite” consistently. But look at what’s happened with Kirby. UGA and Bama chose not to accept above average, and made changes until they found their guy. Auburn is a good enough program to do that as well. Heck, during the Richt years, they had a slightly better record against us. But we were pretty much on even ground with them in terms of records and recruiting. 

Those three programs absolutely have institutional/built-in advantages over us that give them far more leeway when it comes to demanding "elite." We'll see what UAT does whenever Saban decides to hang it up (whether that be this year, mid 2030s, or between), but Georgia I just can't see ever coming down from their current high. We are not going to be what those three have been, no matter how much unconditional support our boosters give.

Edited November 27, 2023 by AUwent

[ScotsAU 1,343]

8 minutes ago, AUwent said:

Those three programs absolutely have institutional/built-in advantages over us that give them far more leeway when it comes to demanding "elite." We'll see what UAT does whenever Saban decides to hang it up (whether that be this year, mid 2030s, or between), but Georgia I just can't see ever coming down from their current high. We are not going to be what those three have been, no matter how much unconditional support our boosters give.

Georgia was at our level prior to Smart…

[LPTiger 5,173]

56 minutes ago, Win4AU said:

Seems like Texas A&M and Miss State may have made good hires today.  

Maybe.  Hard to know at this point.  I'm convinced any new hire is a 50/50 crap shoot.   Bama with all of its resources struck out what 4 times before Saban?  Libby has been a good OC but Okey lost 2 games this year because of their offense.  Hiring someone with zero experience as a head coach is a risk.  And being a head coach today, with NIL, is more challenging than ever.  aTm, Elko was clearly their second or third choice.   Imagine starting a marriage with "look you might work out but you were not my first choice..."  Elko at least has proven to be pretty capable at Duke.  

[AUwent 3,775]

10 minutes ago, ScotsAU said:

Georgia was at our level prior to Smart…

Yes, but factors beyond our control or theirs gave them much more bargaining power in demanding an elite coach. Why couldn't Nebraska find an elite coach when they fired Solich and then Pelini?

Edited November 27, 2023 by AUwent

[ScotsAU 1,343]

2 minutes ago, AUwent said:

Yes, but factors beyond our control or theirs gave them much more bargaining power in demanding an elite coach. Why couldn't Nebraska find an elite coach when they fired Solich and then Pelini?

Because Nebraska has been a cluster for a long time.

[AUwent 3,775]

6 minutes ago, ScotsAU said:

Because Nebraska has been a cluster for a long time.

Yeah, they've been a cluster because they fired Solich and then Pelini, thinking that they could demand Osborne-like results. Some programs can get away with expecting more than others, I don't like it but it's just the way it is.

Edited November 27, 2023 by AUwent

[auburnatl1 5,057]

Texas and Oklahoma?…

[W.E.D 11,070]

15 hours ago, ScotsAU said:

No it isn’t. Auburn has more resources and better prestige than OM. Saying that’s the expectation is complacency.

You realize Auburn going  10 wins, 8 wins, 10 wins with two CFP appearances would probably be a top 3-4 3 year span in Auburn history, right?

[aubaseball 2,652]

12 hours ago, ScotsAU said:

Devil’s advocate. Only 1 of those three programs has made it with different coaches. Georgia has only made it with Kirby. Bama has only made it with Saban. One explanation is that those programs have advantages that have made them successful. Another is that they just finally found a good coach that could elevate them to that level.  I thought UGA was nuts for firing Mark Richt when he had them relevant every year but just wasn’t reaching “elite” consistently. But look at what’s happened with Kirby. UGA and Bama chose not to accept above average, and made changes until they found their guy. Auburn is a good enough program to do that as well. Heck, during the Richt years, they had a slightly better record against us. But we were pretty much on even ground with them in terms of records and recruiting. 

Richt owned  Auburn (10 wins 5 losses )  That’s where this whole thing started.   Alabama has only been good under Saban?   Did you forget someone that won championships in the 60’s and 70’s?   Alabama was a sleeping bear until Saban got there.    As much as it pains people to remember, until Dye got here, Auburn was a historically 8-4 program.   And still is!   Hopefully it changes and hopefully Freeze is the man.