Vegas Doesn't Know Ball

[Zeek 16,660]

Vegas decided to drop some lines recently and I think most of them are easy money.

• Oklahoma @ Auburn (Oklahoma -3)
  • I think this one is fair. They have a bit more consistency and typically receive more respect than us.
• Auburn @ Georgia (Georgia -24)
  • I think the under here is easy money. Yes, last week's game was at Jordan Hare but we only lost by 7. To think the game being in Athens is a 17-point difference is a stretch. Especially considering I think we are better at almost every position group than we were a season ago.
• Auburn @ Missouri (Mizzou -10)
  • I understand Mizzou being the favorite at home but I'm going with the under. Not seeing them as a double-digit favorite over us. They have done a good job building a solid program over there and the easy schedule will keep them fresh. Still, I think we win this game or at worst lose it by one possession.
• Texas A&M @ Auburn (TAMU -3.5)
  • Simply put, I think we are the better team, or at least even. So the home-field advantage should make us the favorite. I believe we beat this team comfortably this season.
• Auburn @ Alabama (Alabama -15)
  • Milroe is not good and I am not a believer in Husky Harsin. We struggle at BDS and shouldn't be the favorite but Alabama has been hemorrhaging talent this offseason.

Thoughts?

[cbo 7,932]

I wouldn't touch any of these without seeing how Thorne and the DL play this season. I like the Missouri line the best. 

The truth is Vegas is very good at setting lines. Never bet on your favorite team! It's hard to fight your inherent bias. 

 

[weagl1 1,789]

The bookies jobs are to equalize the bets on both sides of the line.  That’s how Vegas makes money.  The impression based on the off season noise is that Auburn won’t be very good.  They are not analyzing anything but the perception.  

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,762]

The thing with the Georgia logic is that was the worst Georgia team in 3 years. I actually think that was Ladd McConkey's first game of the entire season. Auburn obv has much more space to improve, but that wasn't the dynastic version of UGA 21-22. And I don't give grace to the Bulldogs if I can help it lol. Once you factor that, the usual way things go in Athens and Kirby likely being more pissed about that game than any other one (other than the Bama L), I wouldn't be surprised if they tried to snuff us out. 

That being said, if Thorne can actually throw on an elite defense, it's prob hard to see where an ass kicking of that magnitude occurs. There's ZERO chance Kirby allows that running gameplan from last year to fly again, so he's gonna have to air the ball out. 

[AUwent 3,776]

3 hours ago, Zeek said:

Vegas decided to drop some lines recently and I think most of them are easy money.

• Oklahoma @ Auburn (Oklahoma -3)
  • I think this one is fair. They have a bit more consistency and typically receive more respect than us.
• Auburn @ Georgia (Georgia -24)
  • I think the under here is easy money. Yes, last week's game was at Jordan Hare but we only lost by 7. To think the game being in Athens is a 17-point difference is a stretch. Especially considering I think we are better at almost every position group than we were a season ago.
• Auburn @ Missouri (Mizzou -10)
  • I understand Mizzou being the favorite at home but I'm going with the under. Not seeing them as a double-digit favorite over us. They have done a good job building a solid program over there and the easy schedule will keep them fresh. Still, I think we win this game or at worst lose it by one possession.
• Texas A&M @ Auburn (TAMU -3.5)
  • Simply put, I think we are the better team, or at least even. So the home-field advantage should make us the favorite. I believe we beat this team comfortably this season.
• Auburn @ Alabama (Alabama -15)
  • Milroe is not good and I am not a believer in Husky Harsin. We struggle at BDS and shouldn't be the favorite but Alabama has been hemorrhaging talent this offseason.

Thoughts?

I’d love to hear you elaborate on why you think KDB is overrated? If Washington had been his only stop, I *could* see a Scott Frost type situation, but he’s done very well at other stops too.

Anyhow, I hate how CFB has reached the point where one certain position overrides positives everywhere else. -.-

That said, the analytics seem a bit higher on us (or at least this one highly regarded analytics guru—Adam McClintock—does). Has us going 8-4 with wins over TAMU and Kentucky.

Edited May 7 by AUwent

[WDE_OxPx_2010 5,318]

Vegas doesn't exist as a desert oasis simply because they can guess well. Vegas KNOWS.

Link

"Does Vegas adjust the lines based on the known betting habits of certain fan bases? They almost certainly do, but I have never been able to detect any clear bias in the data. Also, it would certainly be very easy to do that for just a handful of games, and that data would just get swamped by all the other data. So, I just ignore this possibility. If I can’t measure it systematically, I don’t care about it.

 

Practically, if a team is favored by 10 points, this translates to a ~75 percent chance of victory for that team. Does this mean: If those teams were to play 100 times, one team would (roughly) win 25 times and the other would win 75 times? OR, does it simply mean that in any given game with a 10-point spread, the favorite will win 75 percent of the time by an average margin of 10 points. I think that the second statement is clearly the correct one."

[BustemBigBlue 178]

I disagree about Milroe. He’s good. 

[AUwent 3,776]

In any case, the betting is 7.5 wins still, correct?

My current prediction is we split OU/TAMU and lose to KY to go 7-5.

Edited May 8 by AUwent

[DAG 34,022]

17 hours ago, Zeek said:

Vegas decided to drop some lines recently and I think most of them are easy money.

• Oklahoma @ Auburn (Oklahoma -3)
  • I think this one is fair. They have a bit more consistency and typically receive more respect than us.
• Auburn @ Georgia (Georgia -24)
  • I think the under here is easy money. Yes, last week's game was at Jordan Hare but we only lost by 7. To think the game being in Athens is a 17-point difference is a stretch. Especially considering I think we are better at almost every position group than we were a season ago.
• Auburn @ Missouri (Mizzou -10)
  • I understand Mizzou being the favorite at home but I'm going with the under. Not seeing them as a double-digit favorite over us. They have done a good job building a solid program over there and the easy schedule will keep them fresh. Still, I think we win this game or at worst lose it by one possession.
• Texas A&M @ Auburn (TAMU -3.5)
  • Simply put, I think we are the better team, or at least even. So the home-field advantage should make us the favorite. I believe we beat this team comfortably this season.
• Auburn @ Alabama (Alabama -15)
  • Milroe is not good and I am not a believer in Husky Harsin. We struggle at BDS and shouldn't be the favorite but Alabama has been hemorrhaging talent this offseason.

Thoughts?

My thoughts is Vegas is hoping you and other Auburn fans have the same thought going into the season. No shot to you or maybe it is but there is a lot of homerism in your evaluations of the games. That is exactly what Vegas hopes happen. 

[WarTiger 3,923]

The spread is the most meaningless thing in all of sports. 

[Gowebb11 9,384]

I can’t believe I’m thinking this way, but as long as Brady Cook is their QB Mizzou will be a difficult game. 

[Mikey 16,748]

1 hour ago, Gowebb11 said:

I can’t believe I’m thinking this way, but as long as Brady Cook is their QB Mizzou will be a difficult game. 

I agree. Also, Drinkwitz is proving to be a way above average coach.

[Sizzle 3,920]

19 hours ago, cbo said:

 

The truth is Vegas is very good at setting lines. Never bet on your favorite team! It's hard to fight your inherent bias. 

 

This is the main thing right here. OP is just too bias just like any fan would be in the offseason. Everybody thinks they’re going to be better than they actually will be in the offseason, then the regular season starts and a lot of fans get their wake-up call.

Freeze is only in his 2nd season but he hasn’t really done anything on the field that should give us full confidence yet

[woodford 3,667]

8 hours ago, WarTiger said:

The spread is the most meaningless thing in all of sports. 

The tall buildings in Vegas would like a word with you. 

 

I think I’m more blown away that TAMU and OU are within a FG than the UGA line. OU might be the most winnable game on that list which is hard to wrap my head around right now.
 

Georgia is going to be insane this year. It wouldn’t surprise me if Auburn got blown out and we still go on to win 8 games. Auburn has not seriously been competitive in Athens in 19 years. Why would it start this year? Yes, new staff and all but this program knows that Georgia owns them. It would take an old school Auburn defensive masterpiece to beat Georgia in Athens. 
 

Hope I’m wrong. 

[TeamZero77 1,785]

On 5/7/2024 at 6:46 PM, WDE_OxPx_2010 said:

Vegas doesn't exist as a desert oasis simply because they can guess well. Vegas KNOWS.

Link

"Does Vegas adjust the lines based on the known betting habits of certain fan bases? They almost certainly do, but I have never been able to detect any clear bias in the data. Also, it would certainly be very easy to do that for just a handful of games, and that data would just get swamped by all the other data. So, I just ignore this possibility. If I can’t measure it systematically, I don’t care about it.

 

Practically, if a team is favored by 10 points, this translates to a ~75 percent chance of victory for that team. Does this mean: If those teams were to play 100 times, one team would (roughly) win 25 times and the other would win 75 times? OR, does it simply mean that in any given game with a 10-point spread, the favorite will win 75 percent of the time by an average margin of 10 points. I think that the second statement is clearly the correct one."

I agree with you. Vegas knows what they're doing. I remember this same time last year so many people were on this board complaining about Vegas disrespecting us because they had our win total at 6.5

Well, we finished 6-7. Vegas has been pretty spot on with our win totals the last few years. To be honest, we don't deserve much respect because we've been proving Vegas correct the past 4 years. We need to earn everybody's respect and the only way to accomplish that is by winning on the field. 

I may be setting myself up for a big disappointment but I truly believe we finish the regular season 9-3. There's no way to predict how our bowl game will go because we won't know our opponent until the regular season ends. I predicted 6-6 last year. I feel better this year because our coaching staff got quiet a bit better and we improved the roster. The biggest positive that I see is that our playcalling should be ALOT better this year. 

Like I said earlier, I'm probably setting myself up for disappointment but I'm starting to really feel better about our chances this year than I was previously. 

Edited May 9 by TeamZero77

[AUwent 3,776]

14 hours ago, woodford said:

The tall buildings in Vegas would like a word with you. 

 

I think I’m more blown away that TAMU and OU are within a FG than the UGA line. OU might be the most winnable game on that list which is hard to wrap my head around right now.
 

Georgia is going to be insane this year. It wouldn’t surprise me if Auburn got blown out and we still go on to win 8 games. Auburn has not seriously been competitive in Athens in 19 years. Why would it start this year? Yes, new staff and all but this program knows that Georgia owns them. It would take an old school Auburn defensive masterpiece to beat Georgia in Athens. 
 

Hope I’m wrong. 

Not sure why you’re “blown away,” those two and Kentucky should be considered toss-ups.

Edited May 9 by AUwent

[TXaubie 567]

On 5/7/2024 at 1:52 PM, cbo said:

I wouldn't touch any of these without seeing how Thorne and the DL play this season. I like the Missouri line the best. 

The truth is Vegas is very good at setting lines. Never bet on your favorite team! It's hard to fight your inherent bias. 

 

Absolutely spot on. I would never bet on Auburn. Actually, I don’t bet at all. So there’s that. Lol

I cannot distinguish my heart from my mind when it comes to Auburn!!  So I just buckle up for the emotional roller coaster of Auburn football games. 

Edited May 9 by TXaubie

[aucanucktiger 1,798]

Vegas can be lazy and some of these lines appear to be some west coaster doing a quick head to head history Google search rather than digging into Fall 2024 player probabilities.

[AU-24 3,108]

On 5/8/2024 at 6:04 AM, weagl1 said:

The bookies jobs are to equalize the bets on both sides of the line.  That’s how Vegas makes money.  The impression based on the off season noise is that Auburn won’t be very good.  They are not analyzing anything but the perception.  

Yes, the line will change with the money.

[JerryAU 1,690]

I'll not be fooled again!  I've let my heart override my head relative to AU football and I've gotten wrapped with pre-season hype for a decade only to be let down by the actual results.  I did lay $100 on the over 6.5 wins, fingers crossed Hugh can get it done. 

[Hank2020 3,217]

9 hours ago, JerryAU said:

I'll not be fooled again!  I've let my heart override my head relative to AU football and I've gotten wrapped with pre-season hype for a decade only to be let down by the actual results.  I did lay $100 on the over 6.5 wins, fingers crossed Hugh can get it done. 

Even though I never wager, I believe this to be a good bet!!Lol

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,762]

On 5/8/2024 at 7:07 AM, Gowebb11 said:

I can’t believe I’m thinking this way, but as long as Brady Cook is their QB Mizzou will be a difficult game. 

Luther Burden more than anything else IMO. They had Cody Schrader who was a generational RB for their standards too. Better we're playing them this season than last at least 

[TigerOne 1,152]

On 5/8/2024 at 8:50 AM, Mikey said:

I agree. Also, Drinkwitz is proving to be a way above average coach.

And ours isn’t 

[AUwent 3,776]

16 minutes ago, TigerOne said:

And ours isn’t 

LMAO! Remind me of how Drink’s first three years at Missouri went again? He was the ONLY P5 coach Potato Man beat without Bo.

Oh man, my sides…that was a good one.

Edited May 11 by AUwent

[woodford 3,667]

12 hours ago, AUwent said:

LMAO! Remind me of how Drink’s first three years at Missouri went again? He was the ONLY P5 coach Potato Man beat without Bo.

Oh man, my sides…that was a good one.

Did you watch that game? Rofl