Notes on FSU

[AU! 0]

So, it seems that the opinions for the outcome of the game on this forum are really polarized. A lot of you either think that FSU is going to be the toughest team Auburn has faced all year or that FSU has just played a bunch of cupcakes and will get embarrassed playing Auburn. In some ways, both of those opinions are correct. I've taken a look at the statistics and watched a few of the games in my down time this holiday season and here are some notes I've picked up along the way.

First, statistically, Auburn doesn't even belong on the field with FSU. But this is where both of the above assumptions are correct. If we're looking at just the numbers from the season, FSU would destroy us, but we can also see that they played what may have been the weakest schedule in the ACC, and that's saying a lot.

But, there are three games that just don't make sense. Clemson, Duke, and BC. One would expect FSU to have more difficulty with Clemson and Duke, but to have easily blown out Boston College. So why is it that the outcome of the games makes it seem like the complete opposite happened?

I'll address BC first, mostly because it matters the least. Anyone that uses this game as a measuring stick for FSU should be forced to use the Miss State game for Auburn. Both of these teams have grown a lot this season. Yes, auburn more so than FSU but Auburn also has had a lot more room to grow. Either way, BC didn't hold FSU to any less offense than other teams did throughout the season, but the major difference was their ability to put up points. This suggests that BC has an offense that FSU wasn't able to match up well with but it was actually a combination of a couple of factors, the first being special teams. BC started drives either in FSU territory or within 10 yards of it 5 times in the game and scored on 3 of them. Which bring me to my first note on FSU: Their special teams are not going to help them in this game.

If the game comes down to special teams, its an Auburn win easily. We are stacked across the board in kicking, punting, coverage and returning. FSU has some major holes. They are pretty average on punt returns (42nd) but terrible at punt coverage (121st). They are very good at kick returns (3) and good at kickoff coverage (17th). They should be fine kicking off but if we can force them to punt (and we will), they will not have a good time. They rank 116th in Net Punting with just 34 yards per punt, Auburn ranks 9th with 40. Expect Auburn to win the field position battle all night.

The other factor that allowed BC to stay in this game was FSUs mental errors. This is not something that they will carry into the national championship. The BC game was FSU's first conference game and came in week 4 after games against Pitt, Nevada, and Bethune-Cookman. They were still putting things together and they made some errors that allowed Boston College to stay in it. Based on their performance the rest of the season, that was not a problem for long.

But moving on from BC, just two weeks later, FSU travelled to Clemson and completely embarrassed the Tigers. This game was the most confusing part of the season for me because, believe it or not, Clemson is a great team. So how was it that FSU was able to beat them to the tune of 51-14? The answer is simple and its a key for Auburn on Monday: Turnovers. Clemson gave up the ball four times and only had one pick on Jameis. On those 4 turnovers, FSU got a TD every time, Clemson punted after they picked off Jameis. Turnovers, and specifically interceptions, are exactly why FSU is where they are today. They are 3rd in the nation with 34 turnovers this season and first in the nation with 25 interceptions.

It is vital, absolutely vital, that we don't throw multiple interceptions to them. But, as you all know, this is also in Auburn's favor. FSU has created gigantic statistical differences against their opposition this season by ending their drives early and gaining new drives for themselves. They get points on almost all of their turnovers and they create a short field for Jameis and co. to work with. But with Auburn, they will need to find a way to create that short field opportunity without interceptions. They won't be able to count on fumbles either. Auburn may fumble the ball once, or twice on a bad day. FSU will have to force that to happen in auburn territory, but FSU is tied for 54th in the country with just 9 fumble recoveries this season.

A final note on the FSU/Clemson game: Clemson actually played a great game on defense. 24 of FSU's points came off of turnovers and they were unable to drive the entire field on Clemson once the whole game. They did achieve two drives of over 70 yards, but both of them ended in field goals (there was one 95 yard possession, but it was the result of a 72 yard TD pass in which two clemson defenders failed to wrap up on what should have been a 12 yard pass). Clemson applied strong pressure on Jameis all night and even forced an interception. And they did that with just their front 4. The problem was their secondary, which played a weak zone defense all night and allowed Jameis to hit receivers on 10-15 yard passes almost at will.

Finally, FSU played Duke. A Duke team that just took A&M down to the wire in the CFA bowl. And they put up 45 while holding Duke to just 7. Yes, Duke did essentially the same as Auburn against A&M, however, put it in perspective. Auburn did it in mid-October in College Station. Duke did it two days ago on a neutral field. Also, we all know that A&M has almost no defense. Their greatest defensive asset was their home crowd and they didn't have that in Atlanta. Auburn had some missteps when we played A&M but we have worked those out in the last 2 months. Looking at the ACCCG, it's apparent that Duke's offense is not on par with their defense. So consider also, that A&M put up more on Duke than FSU and they did it without the 3 turnovers that FSU turned into 21 points.

All in all, there's no doubting that FSU is a very good team. They have won big in all of their games and they've done it with a stifling defense. But many of the key factors for FSU will likely be negated on Monday.

If FSU is going to win their keys are

• Slow the Auburn rushing attack and force Marshall to throw. If they can do that, they should be able to gain a handful of INTs.
  
• Second, they have to hold off the Auburn defensive line. Our pass rush is very good and against they only team they've played all year with a similar front 4, their offensive line did not perform well.
  
• Finally, avoid punting from their own territory. Auburn is great as punt returns and FSU is bad at covering them. If they only ever punt from mid-field, they can avoid allowing Auburn to win the field position battle.
  

The keys for Auburn:

• Run like they've run all season. Use Marshall and Mason to pound it down field all night. Take FSU's secondary out of the game by avoiding passing as much as possible.
  
• Avoid costly turnovers. FSU will take advantage of any chance we give them and a short field is all they need to add 7 to the board.
  
• Fundamentals. We will likely be playing man coverage to slow down Jameis. They have very athletic receivers so when they bring in a reception, make the tackle. One broken tackle can make the difference in this game.
  

Oh, and if you want my score prediction: Auburn 43 - FSU 24

[lutzintheredzone 0]

I don't fear Winston we've faced Mettenberger,Manziel,Murray,McCarron and Franklin and Halliday and Wallace arent bad either

I don't fear Freeman we've faced Oku,Perkins,Hill,Blue,Scott,Malena,Collins,Neal,Gurley,Yeldon,Josey

I don't fear Benjamin we've faced big wr's in Evans.Beckam,Washington

I don't fear the other wr's we've faced Becham Jr, Landry, Kennedy, Moncrief,Tredwell,Lewis ( Miss St),Cooper,White,Jones, Howard

we've beaten better players this vaunted recieving group is thin. Ranking them against SEC wr units Alabama,Texas A & M,LSU,Georgia and Ole Miss are better groups. Esp Alabama they are deep at wr, Because of Mizzou the secondary sucks they put points up all year. What other teams have 4 wr and 2 te at 6'4 and taller . The two back up wr's just has big. FSU has one so did Tex A & M . Mike Evans ( 10 times better than Benjamin) got his yards but the other wr's got shut down and so did the running game.

I remember Oklahoma was unbeatable 24-14 florida. I remember Ohio St was unbeatable 41-14 florida and 41-24 lsu. And I remember Oregon was unbeatable 22-19 Auburn. USC was also unbeatable how

d that work for Texas. How did work yesterday for Baylor and Stanford they we're huge favorites to win by that football index crap.

The bowl games have proved my point ACC in 3-5 and 0-2 vs SEC. The wins have not been impressive,.Miami and Boston College got slaughtered. Marshall whooped Maryland. Miss St smoked Rice who beat Marshall who took Va Tech into 3 overtimes. Miami and FSU wins over a bad Florida team yawn. Clemson win over Georgia only thing impressive. But Georgia always loses early.

[FootballFanatic 4]

I don't fear Winston we've faced Mettenberger,Manziel,Murray,McCarron and Franklin and Halliday and Wallace arent bad either

I don't fear Freeman we've faced Oku,Perkins,Hill,Blue,Scott,Malena,Collins,Neal,Gurley,Yeldon,Josey

I don't fear Benjamin we've faced big wr's in Evans.Beckam,Washington

I don't fear the other wr's we've faced Becham Jr, Landry, Kennedy, Moncrief,Tredwell,Lewis ( Miss St),Cooper,White,Jones, Howard

we've beaten better players this vaunted recieving group is thin. Ranking them against SEC wr units Alabama,Texas A & M,LSU,Georgia and Ole Miss are better groups. Esp Alabama they are deep at wr, Because of Mizzou the secondary sucks they put points up all year. What other teams have 4 wr and 2 te at 6'4 and taller . The two back up wr's just has big. FSU has one so did Tex A & M . Mike Evans ( 10 times better than Benjamin) got his yards but the other wr's got shut down and so did the running game.

I remember Oklahoma was unbeatable 24-14 florida. I remember Ohio St was unbeatable 41-14 florida and 41-24 lsu. And I remember Oregon was unbeatable 22-19 Auburn. USC was also unbeatable how

d that work for Texas. How did work yesterday for Baylor and Stanford they we're huge favorites to win by that football index crap.

The bowl games have proved my point ACC in 3-5 and 0-2 vs SEC. The wins have not been impressive,.Miami and Boston College got slaughtered. Marshall whooped Maryland. Miss St smoked Rice who beat Marshall who took Va Tech into 3 overtimes. Miami and FSU wins over a bad Florida team yawn. Clemson win over Georgia only thing impressive. But Georgia always loses early.

Seriously, Rice isn't in the ACC.

[VA Tiger 0]

Really nice write up AU! !!

Really enjoyed reading it!

[bwillaub 0]

Well thought out and well written piece! I concur, AU!

[CleCoTiger 1,957]

I'm really gonna disagree with you on the "Clemson is a great team" bit. You're correct on the turnovers allowing FSU to put that game out of reach/out of hand for Clemson, and that's really what counts as far as evaluating that score/outcome, but Clemson is a good, above average top 20 kind of team. But great? Nah. They have up over 500 yards and 35 points to UGA in the first game, a game I think UGA probably should have won, and when they played the only other two actually good teams on their schedule (FSU and USCe), both were losses, one a sure 'nuff blowout and in the other (with six turnovers), they were nearly doubled up. Not meaning to get into an argument over Clemson here as they are basically irrelevant, but if they are FSU's measuring stick, color me not impressed.

[AcUmen 242]

AU needs to avoid what happened to Clemson and Wake Forest. Wake threw 4 passes in the first half. 3 of them were picks (2 for TD's I believe). Because of that QB's horrible play, Wake puts in their backup QB. His first play from scrimmage he hands it off to the RB, who fumbles. FSU's Ramsey scoops it and runs for the endzone. Another TD. Yes, Wake is a terrible team, but FSU was up 28-0 in the second quarter because of TO's.

Clemson fumbled on the very first play from scrimmage of the game. FSU makes quick work out of it and it's 7-0. Clemson never regained their composure and it ended in a blow-out. Clemson is not as bad as they looked but they get blown-out because of 4 turnovers and never really forcing FSU to drive the length of the field.

I ran the stats. When FSU is forced to drive 75 yards or more, they score 16 points per game on average. Field position and no turnovers are THE KEY for Auburn.

[Newbomb 193]

Ok instead of starting yet another FSU thread I decided to piggy back something on your thread. This season FSU had scored 689 total points. What is notable is if you break their scoring down by quarter. In the fourth quarter they have scored just 120 ponts this can be easily attributed to most of their games beino over by the fourth quarter. In the third quarter they have scored 200 pts and in the second quarter they have scored 207 points. Where things get interesting is when we look at the first quarter where they scored just 162 points.. Now you may say no big deal just 41.5 off the average of the high scoring 3rd and second quarters and that is really just over an average of 3 points per game. Here are where things get more interesting. In 7 of 13 games FSU scored between 0-7 pts. Pitts 7, Nevada 3, Boston College 3. Maryland 7, Miami 7 Florida 3 and Duke 0. If we get on a roll and not have any turnovers we can put them in a deep whole early.

[Newbomb 193]

AU needs to avoid what happened to Clemson and Wake Forest. Wake threw 4 passes in the first half. 3 of them were picks (2 for TD's I believe). Because of that QB's horrible play, Wake puts in their backup QB. His first play from scrimmage he hands it off to the RB, who fumbles. FSU's Ramsey scoops it and runs for the endzone. Another TD. Yes, Wake is a terrible team, but FSU was up 28-0 in the second quarter because of TO's.

Clemson fumbled on the very first play from scrimmage of the game. FSU makes quick work out of it and it's 7-0. Clemson never regained their composure and it ended in a blow-out. Clemson is not as bad as they looked but they get blown-out because of 4 turnovers and never really forcing FSU to drive the length of the field.

I ran the stats. When FSU is forced to drive 75 yards or more, they score 16 points per game on average. Field position and no turnovers are THE KEY for Auburn.

FSU scored 21 points on Wake and 17 on Clemson in the first quarter...

[JMassie11 1,610]

AU needs to avoid what happened to Clemson and Wake Forest. Wake threw 4 passes in the first half. 3 of them were picks (2 for TD's I believe). Because of that QB's horrible play, Wake puts in their backup QB. His first play from scrimmage he hands it off to the RB, who fumbles. FSU's Ramsey scoops it and runs for the endzone. Another TD. Yes, Wake is a terrible team, but FSU was up 28-0 in the second quarter because of TO's.

Clemson fumbled on the very first play from scrimmage of the game. FSU makes quick work out of it and it's 7-0. Clemson never regained their composure and it ended in a blow-out. Clemson is not as bad as they looked but they get blown-out because of 4 turnovers and never really forcing FSU to drive the length of the field.

I ran the stats. When FSU is forced to drive 75 yards or more, they score 16 points per game on average. Field position and no turnovers are THE KEY for Auburn.

FSU scored 21 points on Wake and 17 on Clemson in the first quarter...

did they drive the ball 75 yards for a td on those points

[TheBlueVue 177]

Field position smield position...jason staples reports that ALL 22 FSU starters are going to be 1st round draft picks...ALL 22! ! ..with players like that they dont need no stinkin field position

[Newbomb 193]

AU needs to avoid what happened to Clemson and Wake Forest. Wake threw 4 passes in the first half. 3 of them were picks (2 for TD's I believe). Because of that QB's horrible play, Wake puts in their backup QB. His first play from scrimmage he hands it off to the RB, who fumbles. FSU's Ramsey scoops it and runs for the endzone. Another TD. Yes, Wake is a terrible team, but FSU was up 28-0 in the second quarter because of TO's.

Clemson fumbled on the very first play from scrimmage of the game. FSU makes quick work out of it and it's 7-0. Clemson never regained their composure and it ended in a blow-out. Clemson is not as bad as they looked but they get blown-out because of 4 turnovers and never really forcing FSU to drive the length of the field.

I ran the stats. When FSU is forced to drive 75 yards or more, they score 16 points per game on average. Field position and no turnovers are THE KEY for Auburn.

FSU scored 21 points on Wake and 17 on Clemson in the first quarter...

did they drive the ball 75 yards for a td on those points

vs. Clemson 1st score fumble recovery from TD drive from Clemson 34. 2nd score FG drive started from own 12 3rd score was a fumble return TD. Wake 1st TD 80 yard drive. 2nd TD came after a interception return to Wakes 2 yard line. 3rd TD drive after an int return to Wake 15.

[AcUmen 242]

AU needs to avoid what happened to Clemson and Wake Forest. Wake threw 4 passes in the first half. 3 of them were picks (2 for TD's I believe). Because of that QB's horrible play, Wake puts in their backup QB. His first play from scrimmage he hands it off to the RB, who fumbles. FSU's Ramsey scoops it and runs for the endzone. Another TD. Yes, Wake is a terrible team, but FSU was up 28-0 in the second quarter because of TO's.

Clemson fumbled on the very first play from scrimmage of the game. FSU makes quick work out of it and it's 7-0. Clemson never regained their composure and it ended in a blow-out. Clemson is not as bad as they looked but they get blown-out because of 4 turnovers and never really forcing FSU to drive the length of the field.

I ran the stats. When FSU is forced to drive 75 yards or more, they score 16 points per game on average. Field position and no turnovers are THE KEY for Auburn.

FSU scored 21 points on Wake and 17 on Clemson in the first quarter...

did they drive the ball 75 yards for a td on those points

Only once. Against Wake they had an 80 yard TD drive to start the game. Their next drive started on Wake's 2 yard line (thanks to a TO). FSU, of course, scored. Wake's very next drive they threw a pick that was returned to the 15 yard line. FSU, of course, scores another TD which makes it 21-0 in the 1st quarter. In the 2nd quarter, Wake fumbles and FSU's corner scoops it up and scores. 28-0. So FSU scored 21 of their 28 points off 3 turnovers. 1 scoop and score fumble and 2 picks which put their field position at the 2 yard line and 15 yard lines respectively. If that happens to AU, it's GG. (It won't, but IF).

Clemson fumbled the ball on their very first play from scrimmage and gave FSU a short field (at the 34 yard line of Clemson). FSU scores a TD in 3 plays. It was game over at that point.

As I said, when forced to drive the ball 75 yards or more, FSU will score an average of 2 TD's and a FG each game. That's far from their 53 point average. There is no question they are benefiting HUGELY from their defense causing turnovers.

[JMassie11 1,610]

AU needs to avoid what happened to Clemson and Wake Forest. Wake threw 4 passes in the first half. 3 of them were picks (2 for TD's I believe). Because of that QB's horrible play, Wake puts in their backup QB. His first play from scrimmage he hands it off to the RB, who fumbles. FSU's Ramsey scoops it and runs for the endzone. Another TD. Yes, Wake is a terrible team, but FSU was up 28-0 in the second quarter because of TO's.

Clemson fumbled on the very first play from scrimmage of the game. FSU makes quick work out of it and it's 7-0. Clemson never regained their composure and it ended in a blow-out. Clemson is not as bad as they looked but they get blown-out because of 4 turnovers and never really forcing FSU to drive the length of the field.

I ran the stats. When FSU is forced to drive 75 yards or more, they score 16 points per game on average. Field position and no turnovers are THE KEY for Auburn.

FSU scored 21 points on Wake and 17 on Clemson in the first quarter...

did they drive the ball 75 yards for a td on those points

vs. Clemson 1st score fumble recovery from TD drive from Clemson 34. 2nd score FG drive started from own 12 3rd score was a fumble return TD. Wake 1st TD 80 yard drive. 2nd TD came after a interception return to Wakes 2 yard line. 3rd TD drive after an int return to Wake 15.

I was jw...comparing notes