The reasons why we win it all this year

[AU80cruiser 1,102]

ESPN is really hammering on Auburn. Based on their "analysis" Auburn will be worse this year than last year, projected W-L at 7.4-4.6 (which I suppose works out to a 7-5 record. I don't know if Auburn will be as good as some of the media rankings predict, but I really doubt that it will be as bad as ESPN predicts. Interestingly, though, their power rankings settle on a bunch of 9-3 finishes, including Bama, LSU, UGA, TA&M, OM and UT, with Ark at 8-4. It's not clear how they can do a power rating on Auburn without actually having seen the offense in action, but I presume they just kinda sorta guessed at it.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

This isn't done by a real person, this is a computer generated statistical guess on how teams will do.

I remember one statistical analysis that had Auburn ranked 1st or 2nd about 3 games into the 2013 season. I got a good chuckle out of that thinking we'd be lucky to win 6 or 7 games.

Let's just hope Espns analysis isn't coming from the same source. Little did anyone know how accurate it would be.

[AUwent 3,754]

My SEC predictions:

East:

Georgia--10-2 (6-2); loss to UAT and Tenn

Mizz--8-4 (5-3); losses to UK, UG, and Ark (also BYU)

Tenn--8-4 (5-3); losses to UAT, UK, and Mizz (also Oklahoma)

UK--7-5 (4-4); losses to Auburn, MSU, UG, and Vandy (also L'ville)

UF--5-7 (2-6); losses to UK, Tenn, OM, Mizz, LSU, and UG (also FSU)

USC--4-8 (1-7); losses to Clemson and everyone in conference except Vandy

Vandy--3-9 (1-7); losses to Houston, MTSU, and everyone in conference except UK

West:

Alabama--9-3 (5-3); losses to TAMU, LSU, and Auburn

Arkansas--9-3 (5-3); losses to Tenn, UAT and Auburn

Auburn--9-3 (5-3); losses to LSU, MSU and UG

LSU--9-3 (5-3): losses to Ark, OM and TAMU

OM--9-3 (5-3); losses to UAT, Auburn and Ark

TAMU--9-3 (5-3); losses to Ark, OM and Auburn

MSU--6-6 (2-6); losses to LSU, TAMU, Mizz, UAT, Ark, and OM

I can't remember a year in which the SEC west looked so even. Every team (besides MSU) could win the division, but every team is near-equally flawed and with plenty of obstacles. I'm sure there will be more of a gap than this, but right now, I can't predict one. FWIW either us or Arky goes to Atlanta.

The one SEC west team with the one and only very good returning QB, and arguably the best QB in the SEC, is going to go 6-6?!? Prescott is a JOKE. He caught lightening in a bottle last year and took advantage of it, that is until they collapsed down the stretch losing 3 of their last 4 games. MSU has NOTHING to help Prescott this year. 6-6 may be actually being generous. Even with so many new starters at QB in the league, I still can't bring myself to even remotely consider Prescott among the best in the SEC. He's just not that impressive to me at all. He's listed there now by default because there are so many new starters coming in this year, but statistically, I doubt he finishes anywhere near the top 5. Doubtful. No way 6 out of 7 teams in the division all finish 9-3.

The rest of those predictions just aren't realistic because you are right, it would be almost impossible for 6 teams to finish with the same record. That just simply won't happen. MSU may not win a game against anybody in the SEC west. But, he has MSU at 6-6 but beating Auburn in Auburn? Sorry, but that isn't going to happen.

I wouldn't call him a joke, but I agree with your thoughts on Prescott. I definitely think he is overrated. That being said, they always play us tough, even at home. I don't see us losing to them, but stranger things have happened.

#1--You're probably right, there will probably be some completely unseen factors to come along (injuries) that separate the six teams, but at this point, I really don't see any of those six standing out. Like, I've tried to pick a team that I think goes 10-2, but then I think of some flaw they might have and look at a team that inevitably gets downgraded as a result and think of some strength they have--"no way they go 8-4 or 7-5," I think. The SEC west is as even as it's ever been, and the conference might eat itself out of playoff contention.

#2--I think youth in some positions costs us a heartbreaker game at LSU, and MSU catches us in hangover mode. Though they're not as good, think Georgia last year.

[war eagle6 0]

Msu will NOT beat AU in auburn, sorry to disappoint u but that's NOT happening

[WarEagleAU 0]

My SEC predictions:

East:

Georgia--10-2 (6-2); loss to UAT and Tenn

Mizz--8-4 (5-3); losses to UK, UG, and Ark (also BYU)

Tenn--8-4 (5-3); losses to UAT, UK, and Mizz (also Oklahoma)

UK--7-5 (4-4); losses to Auburn, MSU, UG, and Vandy (also L'ville)

UF--5-7 (2-6); losses to UK, Tenn, OM, Mizz, LSU, and UG (also FSU)

USC--4-8 (1-7); losses to Clemson and everyone in conference except Vandy

Vandy--3-9 (1-7); losses to Houston, MTSU, and everyone in conference except UK

West:

Alabama--9-3 (5-3); losses to TAMU, LSU, and Auburn

Arkansas--9-3 (5-3); losses to Tenn, UAT and Auburn

Auburn--9-3 (5-3); losses to LSU, MSU and UG

LSU--9-3 (5-3): losses to Ark, OM and TAMU

OM--9-3 (5-3); losses to UAT, Auburn and Ark

TAMU--9-3 (5-3); losses to Ark, OM and Auburn

MSU--6-6 (2-6); losses to LSU, TAMU, Mizz, UAT, Ark, and OM

I can't remember a year in which the SEC west looked so even. Every team (besides MSU) could win the division, but every team is near-equally flawed and with plenty of obstacles. I'm sure there will be more of a gap than this, but right now, I can't predict one. FWIW either us or Arky goes to Atlanta.

East:

Tennessee - 9-3 (5-3); losses to UF, Ark and UAT

Georgia - 8-4 (5-3); losses to UAT, Tenn, AU and Ga Tech

Missouri - 7-5 (3-5); losses to UK, UGA, MSU, UGA, Tenn and Ark

Florida - 7-5 (3-5); losses to OM, Mizz, LSU, UGA and SC

South Carolina - 6-6 (3-5); losses to UGA, Mizz, LSU, TAMU, Tenn and Clemson

Kentucky - 6-6 (2-6); losses to SC, UF, AU, MSU, Tenn and UGA

Vanderbilt - 1-11 (0-8); losses to WKU, MTSU, Houston and everyone in SEC

West:

Auburn - 11-1 (7-1); loss to Ark

Alabama - 11-1 (7-1); loss to AU

Arkansas - 10-2 (6-2); losses to UAT and OM

Miss State - 9-3 (5-3); losses to AU, UAT and Ark

Ole Miss - 9-3 (5-3); losses to UAT, AU and MSU

LSU - 7-5 (3-5); losses to MSU, AU, UAT, Ark and OM

Texas A&M - 5-7 (2-6); losses to Ariz St, Ark, MSU, UAT, OM, AU and LSU

-Tennessee and Auburn goes to Atlanta.

-Texas A&M could easily be sitting at 5-7 because they went 7-5 with two huge wins over Ark and AU last season.

-Miss State at 6-6? Nah. I think they will win 8 or 9 games this season.

-Florida and South Carolina will play in a bowl game this season. No question...

[AUwent 3,754]

^^I hope you're right.

^I would have NO problem with that happening, especially A&M going 5-7. I just think that they have way too much talent to not be any better than they were last year, and that talent is a year older.

[AUEngineer2016 407]

My SEC predictions:

East:

Georgia--10-2 (6-2); loss to UAT and Tenn

Mizz--8-4 (5-3); losses to UK, UG, and Ark (also BYU)

Tenn--8-4 (5-3); losses to UAT, UK, and Mizz (also Oklahoma)

UK--7-5 (4-4); losses to Auburn, MSU, UG, and Vandy (also L'ville)

UF--5-7 (2-6); losses to UK, Tenn, OM, Mizz, LSU, and UG (also FSU)

USC--4-8 (1-7); losses to Clemson and everyone in conference except Vandy

Vandy--3-9 (1-7); losses to Houston, MTSU, and everyone in conference except UK

West:

Alabama--9-3 (5-3); losses to TAMU, LSU, and Auburn

Arkansas--9-3 (5-3); losses to Tenn, UAT and Auburn

Auburn--9-3 (5-3); losses to LSU, MSU and UG

LSU--9-3 (5-3): losses to Ark, OM and TAMU

OM--9-3 (5-3); losses to UAT, Auburn and Ark

TAMU--9-3 (5-3); losses to Ark, OM and Auburn

MSU--6-6 (2-6); losses to LSU, TAMU, Mizz, UAT, Ark, and OM

I can't remember a year in which the SEC west looked so even. Every team (besides MSU) could win the division, but every team is near-equally flawed and with plenty of obstacles. I'm sure there will be more of a gap than this, but right now, I can't predict one. FWIW either us or Arky goes to Atlanta.

East:

Tennessee - 9-3 (5-3); losses to UF, Ark and UAT

Georgia - 8-4 (5-3); losses to UAT, Tenn, AU and Ga Tech

Missouri - 7-5 (3-5); losses to UK, UGA, MSU, UGA, Tenn and Ark

Florida - 7-5 (3-5); losses to OM, Mizz, LSU, UGA and SC

South Carolina - 6-6 (3-5); losses to UGA, Mizz, LSU, TAMU, Tenn and Clemson

Kentucky - 6-6 (2-6); losses to SC, UF, AU, MSU, Tenn and UGA

Vanderbilt - 1-11 (0-8); losses to WKU, MTSU, Houston and everyone in SEC

West:

Auburn - 11-1 (7-1); loss to Ark

Alabama - 11-1 (7-1); loss to AU

Arkansas - 10-2 (6-2); losses to UAT and OM

Miss State - 9-3 (5-3); losses to AU, UAT and Ark

Ole Miss - 9-3 (5-3); losses to UAT, AU and MSU

LSU - 7-5 (3-5); losses to MSU, AU, UAT, Ark and OM

Texas A&M - 5-7 (2-6); losses to Ariz St, Ark, MSU, UAT, OM, AU and LSU

-Tennessee and Auburn goes to Atlanta.

-Texas A&M could easily be sitting at 5-7 because they went 7-5 with two huge wins over Ark and AU last season.

-Miss State at 6-6? Nah. I think they will win 8 or 9 games this season.

-Florida and South Carolina will play in a bowl game this season. No question...

Please oh please oh please...

[bigbird 60,565]

I don't see TAMU having a losing record, especially with the addition of Chavis

[Wareagleinfl 0]

If we can get through the season without any suspensions and don't have any key injuries, I don't see anyone stopping us from running the table.

[Tiger 8,827]

Anyone know the difference in using bovada vs other betting sites?

[Rednilla 5,391]

Msu will NOT beat AU in auburn, sorry to disappoint u but that's NOT happening

MSU probably WON'T beat Auburn in Auburn. However, Auburn may well still lose the game. We play State the week after going to Baton Rouge, and AU-LSU seems to always turn into a slugfest, so I would expect the team to be a bit beat up going into the matchup with the pups. Toss in a couple of strange bounces, and anything can happen.

And when you start saying something will never happen, it usually does. Remember Appalachian State and Michigan in the season opener several years back?

[cole256 17,084]

If msu finds another running back or get one that can get like 70% production from him they will be just as dangerous if not better on offense. Shouldn't be too much a drop on defense either, couple of their guys will be playing with NFL money in the back of their mind making them even more motivated.

[McLoofus 35,182]

Msu will NOT beat AU in auburn, sorry to disappoint u but that's NOT happening

MSU probably WON'T beat Auburn in Auburn. However, Auburn may well still lose the game. We play State the week after going to Baton Rouge, and AU-LSU seems to always turn into a slugfest, so I would expect the team to be a bit beat up going into the matchup with the pups. Toss in a couple of strange bounces, and anything can happen.

And when you start saying something will never happen, it usually does. Remember Appalachian State and Michigan in the season opener several years back?

Of course. Everybody will remember that forever because it was unusual. You're kind of pointing to the exception to prove the rule. I agree with your initial premise about MSU vs AU, but that last part doesn't really apply. That's like folks saying that Sammie Coates is proof that you can win a national title with a roster full of 2* recruits.

[Rednilla 5,391]

Msu will NOT beat AU in auburn, sorry to disappoint u but that's NOT happening

MSU probably WON'T beat Auburn in Auburn. However, Auburn may well still lose the game. We play State the week after going to Baton Rouge, and AU-LSU seems to always turn into a slugfest, so I would expect the team to be a bit beat up going into the matchup with the pups. Toss in a couple of strange bounces, and anything can happen.

And when you start saying something will never happen, it usually does. Remember Appalachian State and Michigan in the season opener several years back?

Of course. Everybody will remember that forever because it was unusual. You're kind of pointing to the exception to prove the rule. I agree with your initial premise about MSU vs AU, but that last part doesn't really apply. That's like folks saying that Sammie Coates is proof that you can win a national title with a roster full of 2* recruits.

Well...I get where you're going, but I wasn't pointing at the exception to prove the rule, I was pointing at an unusually extreme exception in order to remind that if something as wild as Appy St. beating a top 5 Michigan team can happen, anything can. Using your analogy, it's far closer to saying Sammie Coates is proof that even a 2* can be picked in the third round than anything about a whole team of 2* players maintaining a high enough level to win it all.

[McLoofus 35,182]

Msu will NOT beat AU in auburn, sorry to disappoint u but that's NOT happening

MSU probably WON'T beat Auburn in Auburn. However, Auburn may well still lose the game. We play State the week after going to Baton Rouge, and AU-LSU seems to always turn into a slugfest, so I would expect the team to be a bit beat up going into the matchup with the pups. Toss in a couple of strange bounces, and anything can happen.

And when you start saying something will never happen, it usually does. Remember Appalachian State and Michigan in the season opener several years back?

Of course. Everybody will remember that forever because it was unusual. You're kind of pointing to the exception to prove the rule. I agree with your initial premise about MSU vs AU, but that last part doesn't really apply. That's like folks saying that Sammie Coates is proof that you can win a national title with a roster full of 2* recruits.

Well...I get where you're going, but I wasn't pointing at the exception to prove the rule, I was pointing at an unusually extreme exception in order to remind that if something as wild as Appy St. beating a top 5 Michigan team can happen, anything can. Using your analogy, it's far closer to saying Sammie Coates is proof that even a 2* can be picked in the third round than anything about a whole team of 2* players maintaining a high enough level to win it all.

You used the App State example to show that "when you start saying something will never happen, it usually does."

[Rednilla 5,391]

If msu finds another running back or get one that can get like 70% production from him they will be just as dangerous if not better on offense. Shouldn't be too much a drop on defense either, couple of their guys will be playing with NFL money in the back of their mind making them even more motivated.

Ask anyone who knows anything about football and they will tell you that games are almost ALWAYS won in the trenches. The only running back I've ever seen who could consistently be productive without good blocking was Barry Sanders; for all the praise Emmitt Smith gets as the NFL's all-time leading rusher, he spent the prime of his career running behind three All-Pro offensive linemen.

Ergo, if they can't get the offensive line figured out, MSU isn't going to be very good running OR passing. It wouldn't matter if they had Cam, McFadden, Calvin Johnson, and Larry Fitzgerald; if they don't have a line to keep the pressure off, they still aren't going to be moving the football consistently.

[Rednilla 5,391]

Msu will NOT beat AU in auburn, sorry to disappoint u but that's NOT happening

MSU probably WON'T beat Auburn in Auburn. However, Auburn may well still lose the game. We play State the week after going to Baton Rouge, and AU-LSU seems to always turn into a slugfest, so I would expect the team to be a bit beat up going into the matchup with the pups. Toss in a couple of strange bounces, and anything can happen.

And when you start saying something will never happen, it usually does. Remember Appalachian State and Michigan in the season opener several years back?

Of course. Everybody will remember that forever because it was unusual. You're kind of pointing to the exception to prove the rule. I agree with your initial premise about MSU vs AU, but that last part doesn't really apply. That's like folks saying that Sammie Coates is proof that you can win a national title with a roster full of 2* recruits.

Well...I get where you're going, but I wasn't pointing at the exception to prove the rule, I was pointing at an unusually extreme exception in order to remind that if something as wild as Appy St. beating a top 5 Michigan team can happen, anything can. Using your analogy, it's far closer to saying Sammie Coates is proof that even a 2* can be picked in the third round than anything about a whole team of 2* players maintaining a high enough level to win it all.

You used the App State example to show that "when you start saying something will never happen, it usually does."

Aha, I see what you mean now. That's not what I meant, but the way I worded it did confuse things.

I wasn't using the App State example to show that saying things like that about a particular game, it is likely to happen; rather, what I was getting at was the notion that no team from I-AA (think it was still called hat at the time) could ever beat a top power conference opponent, and that's one I remember hearing at least some before the monumental upset.

In another example, I can vividly remember my brother's attitude after losing to USC in 03: he said it was no big deal, we'd drop 40 on Tech and rebound to have a great season. That there was no way the Yellow Jackets would come in and beat us.

There have been plenty of times in sports when something that "could never happen" actually did happen, and I'm the type to always be leery of making such definitive predictions...especially regarding Auburn.

[McLoofus 35,182]

Msu will NOT beat AU in auburn, sorry to disappoint u but that's NOT happening

MSU probably WON'T beat Auburn in Auburn. However, Auburn may well still lose the game. We play State the week after going to Baton Rouge, and AU-LSU seems to always turn into a slugfest, so I would expect the team to be a bit beat up going into the matchup with the pups. Toss in a couple of strange bounces, and anything can happen.

And when you start saying something will never happen, it usually does. Remember Appalachian State and Michigan in the season opener several years back?

Of course. Everybody will remember that forever because it was unusual. You're kind of pointing to the exception to prove the rule. I agree with your initial premise about MSU vs AU, but that last part doesn't really apply. That's like folks saying that Sammie Coates is proof that you can win a national title with a roster full of 2* recruits.

Well...I get where you're going, but I wasn't pointing at the exception to prove the rule, I was pointing at an unusually extreme exception in order to remind that if something as wild as Appy St. beating a top 5 Michigan team can happen, anything can. Using your analogy, it's far closer to saying Sammie Coates is proof that even a 2* can be picked in the third round than anything about a whole team of 2* players maintaining a high enough level to win it all.

You used the App State example to show that "when you start saying something will never happen, it usually does."

Aha, I see what you mean now. That's not what I meant, but the way I worded it did confuse things.

I wasn't using the App State example to show that saying things like that about a particular game, it is likely to happen; rather, what I was getting at was the notion that no team from I-AA (think it was still called hat at the time) could ever beat a top power conference opponent, and that's one I remember hearing at least some before the monumental upset.

In another example, I can vividly remember my brother's attitude after losing to USC in 03: he said it was no big deal, we'd drop 40 on Tech and rebound to have a great season. That there was no way the Yellow Jackets would come in and beat us.

There have been plenty of times in sports when something that "could never happen" actually did happen, and I'm the type to always be leery of making such definitive predictions...especially regarding Auburn.

Couldn't agree more. (Although I swore up and down last season that Arkansas wouldn't be able to stay on the field with us... I will not say that this year. They improved waaaaay more than I expected as the season went on. We were lucky to get them early.)

[cole256 17,084]

If msu finds another running back or get one that can get like 70% production from him they will be just as dangerous if not better on offense. Shouldn't be too much a drop on defense either, couple of their guys will be playing with NFL money in the back of their mind making them even more motivated.

Ask anyone who knows anything about football and they will tell you that games are almost ALWAYS won in the trenches. The only running back I've ever seen who could consistently be productive without good blocking was Barry Sanders; for all the praise Emmitt Smith gets as the NFL's all-time leading rusher, he spent the prime of his career running behind three All-Pro offensive linemen.

Ergo, if they can't get the offensive line figured out, MSU isn't going to be very good running OR passing. It wouldn't matter if they had Cam, McFadden, Calvin Johnson, and Larry Fitzgerald; if they don't have a line to keep the pressure off, they still aren't going to be moving the football consistently.

Yes I understand that, we don't know if their line will be good or bad. I have a friend that's on their team and he's been satisfied so far. But at the same time I don't guess he'd ever say we suck either so I guess we'll see.

[AURex 2,007]

One thing I will say about MSU is they always play hard and they don't quit playing hard when they fall behind. They rarely have as much talent as other teams, but they have guts and determination. I've always had respect for MSU.

That said, I don't think MSU can beat Auburn at Auburn this year unless something unforeseen happens. Like key injuries or some really fluke plays.

Arkansas is another matter. The pigs were a thorn in Auburn's side during the Petrino years, and Bielema has built a solid team that plays old style smash mouth football. In Fayetteville, Arkansas will not be an easy out, just as LSU is no gimmee in Baton Rouge, even if it is in the afternoon rather than at night.

I think Auburn has the players and the coaching to win all those games, but unpredictable (and unpleasant) things can happen on the field (and off). I'm just hoping our guys stay healthy and play up to their potential.

[gr82b4au 5,568]

I am not saying that it will be easy. I think there may be games where we struggle and we may even drop a game. Heck - look at OSU last year - they lost to a TERRIBLE team, or us in 2013 (we made it to the big game with one loss), or alabama for several years. Honestly I do think we will be better than last year in just about every way, especially if JJ performs like I think he can, and we can beat every team on our schedule.

Side note: Funny that I now ESPN has come out and said, according to their power index, that there is 0% chance we go undefeated and that we are predicted to win only 7 games. That is after USA today (the AP) and others have said we could play for it all. It seems like nobody know what to expect with AU this year.

Well I know what to expect... an sec title and a national title.

[bikeriderga 134]

If we stay healthy, it will be a struggle, but we could win it all with a little to no injuries and a little luck.

Why?

1. Offensive Line -- Could be the best ever. Largest unknown is center.

2. Defensive Line -- Same story as Offensive line. BEAST!

3. QB -- I think JJ is a better overall QB than Marshall was. Marshall did a great job, but Jeremy is a more natural QB.

4. Receivers -- Duke, Richardo, Marcus, and a host of good receivers behind them.

5. Running Back - Jovon, Rock, Barber -- Could be the best RB backfield overall in the country

6. HBacks -- Too god ones in Cox and Pettway. Low on exprience, high on talent.

7. Linebackers -- Lots of experience with Frost and McKenzie. No injuries are key, but expect Tre Williams to step up and newcomer Jeffrey Holland as well, once he gets some playing time under his belt.

7, D Backs -- Good DBs at the starting position, not much depth behind them. A few key injuries could make us vunerable. We are good to great at safety. Matthews and Jones are givens. I think Rudy Ford will have a break out season, and if Garret can stay healthy, can really help us here.

That's why I see an SEC Championship title. Undefeated will be extremely hard, but anything less than 10 wins would be a major disappointment.

[WarEagle1983 2,185]

One thing I will say about MSU is they always play hard and they don't quit playing hard when they fall behind. They rarely have as much talent as other teams, but they have guts and determination. I've always had respect for MSU.

That said, I don't think MSU can beat Auburn at Auburn this year unless something unforeseen happens. Like key injuries or some really fluke plays.

Arkansas is another matter. The pigs were a thorn in Auburn's side during the Petrino years, and Bielema has built a solid team that plays old style smash mouth football. In Fayetteville, Arkansas will not be an easy out, just as LSU is no gimmee in Baton Rouge, even if it is in the afternoon rather than at night.

I think Auburn has the players and the coaching to win all those games, but unpredictable (and unpleasant) things can happen on the field (and off). I'm just hoping our guys stay healthy and play up to their potential.

For some reason we have regularly had a tough time with them no matter what kind of year they're having. I don't recall the stats but seems like it's been a while since we flat out dominated them. Even in 2010 we had to come from behind and beat them at home.

[WarEagle1983 2,185]

Outside of the obvious teams on our schedule (UGA, Bama, LSU) Arky concerns me. JJ shredded their defense but they kept getting better as the season went on. Should've beaten Bama. If they could ever get any decent play out of the QB and WR position they could be a surprise. I personally don't see LSU as a big threat this season considering what i saw from both of their QBs.

[war eagle6 0]

This^^.

[cole256 17,084]

I think arky will be better on offense worse on defense but more dangerous overall