Xavier Preview/Review

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

Sorry I'm a little late this week, but I've been traveling lately (not to Maui unfortunately). Its tourney time, ok not real tournament time, but it should still be fun. Let's jump right in. 

 

Xavier is a shadow of the team that was a one seed last NCAA tourney. They lost the best players and lost their coach to Louisville. They replaced him with a longtime assistant so I expect their stuff to be similar to their recent teams. They replaced many of their top players with transfers who have performed pretty well. Marshall is their best scorer and plays the most minutes. He is their most needed guy and will draw a lot of our defensive focus. Hankins is a big post guy who plays a pretty physical brand of ball down low and might require more minutes from Wiley if we decide to match size with size. I would anticipate McLemore to front him and expose his lack of athleticism, as he has done to other bigs in the past. Xavier has done pretty well scoring but they have not seen a defense anything like us. They have some players and may gell together as the season goes on, but I could see us really giving them trouble with our pressure defense and their new roster and rebuilt group not being able to deal with it. 

 

We should be able to name our score offensively because quite simply Xavier can't defend the perimeter.  They are one of the worst teams in the country at defending the 3 ball and we happen to shoot it pretty well. They struggle to defend pick and rolls, and against Wisconsin, they frequently lost guys after switches etc...If we shoot the ball well, this one could get ugly in a good way. If we don't shoot the ball well, this one will be a grind it out type game, because Xavier has some players, they just haven't put it together yet. 

 

I would expect us to press defensively early. Really try to speed the game up for them and get out in transition. I think our guards are our biggest advantage in this one and Harper and Brown could have big nights. The line is 9 I think and I would have made it 11 or so. Harper and how he handles the environment will be key in this game, if he plays well we will be fine. If he struggles and turns the ball over, takes bad shots, etc., we will be in for a fight. 

 

Let's make another statement in this one. War Eagle!

 

Well, feel like I hit that one pretty close. Observations: 

• We went as Harper went 
• Though Harper and Brown had big nights, they both also made some bad decisions that cost us. They both pressed early and forced shots rather than shooting in rhythm.
• Our bigs obviously fouled too much. Xavier did a good job of getting into their bodies on dribble drives to draw the fouls. 
• We got Xavier's best effort of the young season and survived.
• They gave us trouble rebounding, as was discussed. We better fix that quick or Duke will absolutely kill us. 
• Okeke was our best scoring option in the post. He got a few clutch buckets in the paint that really helped us. 
• Speaking of Okeke, we have to get him more touches. During Xavier's run towards the end of regulation, we when several trips up and down the court where Okeke didn't get a single touch. That can't happen. Harper (and Brown) have to make sure he gets the ball. He draws extra defenders and getting him catches in the post or high post breaks defenses down. 
• Xavier was focused on defending the perimeter. They keyed in on our shooters and we shot deeper shots, rushed shots, and forced shots much of the night. 
• Spencer was big for us in the last few minutes and in OT, a key block, and some rebounds. That was nice, but Wiley and McLemore can't leave us exposed like that again. 
• We had an off game, chemistry-wise. We out-talented them combined with pretty good defense (great in first half and average in second).
• Harper was himself in OT and we all saw the results. We are a different team when he is composed and under control. 
• Great learning experience and big win moving forward. 

 

On to Duke! War Eagle!

 

 

[lost 452]

The big difference between us and Wisky is size.  But i still believe we can exploit them on the perimeter.  Depth also is a plus for AU.  I like the 9 point pick as i think we can cover that.

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

18 minutes ago, lost said:

The big difference between us and Wisky is size.  But i still believe we can exploit them on the perimeter.  Depth also is a plus for AU.  I like the 9 point pick as i think we can cover that.

There are other big differences as well. We have better shooters, ball handlers, defenders and we are deeper. Yes Wisconsin has some size, but Okeke, McLemore, Spencer and Wiley all being available our size is pretty good. We are small at guard more than we are small on the front line. 

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

Should have mentioned earlier:

• Xavier is the best rebounding team we have faced so far, and that will be a challenge for us today if they are able to limit our second chance points. 
• Not only do they allow good shooting percentages, they are allowing 77 pts a game (not having played a lot of high powered offenses).
• We have allowed opposing teams to shoot better percentages than I would like to this point, but we have limited their number of shot attempts through turnovers, steals, blocks, and rebounding. How that plays out in these more difficult games will be interesting to watch. I think we will be able to affect Xavier much the same way we did Washington, but if opposing backcourts play soundly, can we limit their percentages in the half court will be a test. 

[looney 794]

FYI for anyone who didn't want to look it up, I'm seeing 2:30pm Eastern / 1:30pm Central on ESPN 2.

[KolchakAU85 430]

Less than hour to wait...

I'm home "sick" today, planning my Thanksgiving turkey cook (smoke), and waiting for this game.

85-72 AU.

[AURex 2,000]

Xavier did not play well against Wisconsin and actually made the score look more respectable with a big push near the end.

That said, a really early game (9:30 AM Hawaii time), plus jet lag are factors that could affect either or both of the teams, and Xavier could be cranked to respond to their embarrassment by Wisconsin.  And when a team depends heavily on the 3, cold shooting can really be a problem.

Overall, I don't think Xavier has enough talent or chemistry at this point to beat the experienced Auburn team, and I sorta expect Auburn to win by 12 or more. But sometimes weird stuff happens.

 

[GTNupe11 2,034]

I've seen the Badgers play up close and personal. They don't have shooters like we do. I don't expect this to even be close if we can score on the perimeter and play some defense. 

[AUBwins 10,075]

I already had off this week, which works out in several ways for me with this tourney being one of them.  

[Tigerbelle 5,299]

Well...I am not sick or on vacation....so I am working today and would greatly appreciate updates.

Go Tigers!

[tigeraddikt 1,610]

12 minutes ago, Tigerbelle said:

Well...I am not sick or on vacation....so I am working today and would greatly appreciate updates.

Go Tigers!

This.

[AU64 10,122]

Oh NO …..Bill Walton?   but fortunately he's not actually calling the game or providing color. 

Playing in a HS gym.

 

[Mike4AU 1,739]

Shots not falling. Playing decent D. 

[auburnphan 6,050]

3 hours ago, GTNupe11 said:

I've seen the Badgers play up close and personal. They don't have shooters like we do. I don't expect this to even be close if we can score on the perimeter and play some defense. 

which game were you at this year?  I was at Saturdays game. 

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

OP updated with review.