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when do you see the virus peaking


KnightTiger

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ohio gov mike dewine, Louisiana gov. Arkansas gov. boston gov. ny. gov are all talking about best case is april/may timeline, ex fda chief scott gottlieb and business insider journalist morgan Stanley both agree with that timeline as well! so that would most likely  mean nothing would open back up till late may or early-mid june

 

IMO best case is two weeks before Easter cause I know lots of churches will be wanting to host Sonrise service in three weeks Easter is a big holiday event for churches

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8 weeks at the absolute minimum.  Friend of mine is in the Navy and lives in Italy.  He's been trying to prep people here through his social media posts to prepare for the long haul.

We're just now seeing the tip of the iceberg on this thing.

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18 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

8 weeks at the absolute minimum.  Friend of mine is in the Navy and lives in Italy.  He's been trying to prep people here through his social media posts to prepare for the long haul.

We're just now seeing the tip of the iceberg on this thing.

All the teens flocking to the beach for spring break set us back! 8 weeks sounds right along with the April/ May timelin im.hoping a slight chance before Easter. But probably a week or two before memorial day is most likely IMO

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Presumably by "peaking" you mean the apogee of the infection curve.  Of course, that's not the end.

The pandemic probably won't truly "end" until a vaccine is available, which - to my understanding - will take at least a year.

  

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I’m a bit more optimistic. I think the peak is two-3 weeks away. It will linger long after that but I gotta have hope we’ll start getting back to normal in a month. Certain manufacturers, researchers, agribusiness, truckers, Grocers and obviously health care workers need our absolute cooperation now. Then we all need to take a step back and reassess how we educate people. And reassess how honesty  ( and lack of) plays into this education. The panic buying and hoarding is exposing some sad truths. 

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3 hours ago, homersapien said:

Presumably by "peaking" you mean the apogee of the infection curve.  Of course, that's not the end.

The pandemic probably won't truly "end" until a vaccine is available, which - to my understanding - will take at least a year.

  

no but a peak would mean we survived the worst part and cases would start dropping so we could open stuff back up

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We need to shut everything down now. Tennessee supposedly has a 7-10 day window before we reach the point of hospital overcrowding. The sooner we can get people indoors and stay there, the sooner we can stop the spread and resume somewhat normal lives. 

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2 hours ago, KnightTiger said:

All the teens flocking to the beach for spring break set us back! 8 weeks sounds right along with the April/ May timelin im.hoping a slight chance before Easter. But probably a week or two before memorial day is most likely IMO

Well remember, I think 8 weeks is best case scenario. Wouldn't shock me if we go into the summer.

The thing we should all be hoping for is a hot, early summer.  Would help quell this thing some for a while and give our hospital systems a chance to get back on track.  But this virus will be back after the summer and we should be ready for it.

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15 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

8 weeks at the absolute minimum.  Friend of mine is in the Navy and lives in Italy.  He's been trying to prep people here through his social media posts to prepare for the long haul.

We're just now seeing the tip of the iceberg on this thing.

I've honestly been ahead of this thing relative to most people I know- I was that weird alarmist guy before quarantining was cool- and it was because of what I saw and heard out of Italy. It's almost eerie how closely we've followed their track. And that's been the case for over a week now.

Agreed about the tip of the iceberg. We haven't gotten started. The shortage of resources and continued ignorant ass behavior will make it snowball.

People with other health issues are going to suffer greatly because there will be no resources to help them. Last night, my friend had to go sit with her mom in the parking lot of a hospital because her stepdad had to go to the ER for an issue unrelated to the virus, but nobody could come inside the building with him because of virus protocol. 

I want to slap the everloving s*** out of these clowns that keep comparing morbidity rates to the flu. 

Like I said in another thread, all of y'all please do EVERYTHING you can to stay out of the hospital. Stay away from the virus, sure. But also stay away from hot stoves, trampolines, sharp objects...

 

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Update: My friend's stepdad has pneumonia in one lung. He went to the ER with major abdominal pain that hasn't been diagnosed yet. He was tested for the virus last night and won't get the results until tomorrow. He hasn't had a single family member with him since he entered the ER. 

A week ago, we had 4,459 cases confirmed in the US. This morning, we had 34,000. It will be well over 40,000 before the end of the day. 

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2 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

Update: My friend's stepdad has pneumonia in one lung. He went to the ER with major abdominal pain that hasn't been diagnosed yet. He was tested for the virus last night and won't get the results until tomorrow. He hasn't had a single family member with him since he entered the ER. 

A week ago, we had 4,459 cases confirmed in the US. This morning, we had 34,000. It will be well over 40,000 before the end of the day. 

Surgeon General this morning:

"This week, it's going to get bad."

Be safe and smart everyone.

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3 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

Surgeon General this morning:

"This week, it's going to get bad."

Be safe and smart everyone.

One of those things that many of us knew was coming, but still a bit upsetting to see put to words by the SG.

Also, not sure who is familiar with George Friedman, but maybe take a Xanax before reading his latest newsletter. It's... not comforting. 

 

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When the NCAA made the announcement that they would play without fans I thought that was a huge overreaction. It almost seems like that is what set everyone else, including the government into action. So I give them props for getting this right.( they rarely do) . And shame on me. 

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1 hour ago, alexava said:

When the NCAA made the announcement that they would play without fans I thought that was a huge overreaction. It almost seems like that is what set everyone else, including the government into action. So I give them props for getting this right.( they rarely do) . And shame on me. 

Not shame on you. Shame on all of the circumstances that led to most people reacting (or not) same as you.

Those of us who have been taking it more seriously have done so *despite* the mechanisms that should have been dictating much more appropriate and timely response. 

But it is extremely frustrating that some people are still downplaying this at this point. To include senior leadership in healthcare. 

I can only hope that this exposes the cracks in the foundation to everyone, to the point that we get some things fixed. If we don't significantly alter our course, we are well and truly ****** anyway. 

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2 hours ago, McLoofus said:

The shortage of resources and continued ignorant ass behavior will make it snowball.

I agree with most of your posts concerning this epidemic, but the quoted remark doesn’t do anything to help people through this think.  Who do you compare his ignorant behavior to?  Iran? China? Iraq?  Or maybe North Korea as that have reported no cases on Coronavirus.  South Korea has done an excellent job, but they are not even the size on NY.  

This 20/20 hindsight is not helping anybody. The administration needs to look ahead and see how their corrections are working as the scientists and doctors learn more about the virus.  This week will be critical for us to understand where we go from here.  It will also be the end of the 15 day self isolation and we will see what the next correction will be.  Patience is warranted.

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27 minutes ago, I_M4_AU said:

I agree with most of your posts concerning this epidemic, but the quoted remark doesn’t do anything to help people through this think.  Who do you compare his ignorant behavior to?  Iran? China? Iraq?  Or maybe North Korea as that have reported no cases on Coronavirus.  South Korea has done an excellent job, but they are not even the size on NY.  

This 20/20 hindsight is not helping anybody. The administration needs to look ahead and see how their corrections are working as the scientists and doctors learn more about the virus.  This week will be critical for us to understand where we go from here.  It will also be the end of the 15 day self isolation and we will see what the next correction will be.  Patience is warranted.

I think he's referring more to people rushing out to buy goods despite the fact that we have plenty of stock.  I.E. paper towels, toilet paper, etc.

Also ignorant ass behavior like people going to the beach this weekend instead of staying home.  People gathering like that encourages the spread and thus puts a strain on the medical system.

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8 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

I think he's referring more to people rushing out to buy goods despite the fact that we have plenty of stock.  I.E. paper towels, toilet paper, etc.

Also ignorant ass behavior like people going to the beach this weekend instead of staying home.  People gathering like that encourages the spread and thus puts a strain on the medical system.

Exactly. Primarily the latter. I understand the inclination to make sure you and yours are taken care of. So the former at least involves logic, if extremely selfish and ignorant. And potentially very harmful to your neighbor. If people would just pay attention to Italy, then they would know that even now they can still go to the grocery store and find essentials.

But the latter... yeah.... to hell with those people. We've closed the beaches for 60 days in Hilton Head... sorta. Private entrances are still open, which means that some of the resort communities are still accepting visitors and those visitors are still hitting the beaches. However, there are limits to group size and citations are being issued (or so we hear). 

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17 hours ago, KnightTiger said:

no but a peak would mean we survived the worst part and cases would start dropping so we could open stuff back up

In that scenario, there would be nothing to prevent cases from rising again. We won't be able to prevent such a resurgence without the testing capability, which we don't yet have.

And I am not trying to be picky or a Debbie downer, but - on an individual basis - becoming infected is becoming infected. 

And from what data I have seen, hospital capacity will remain inadequate well after the peak of infections.  So "peak" has historical interest, but not much practical significance. 

 

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4 hours ago, McLoofus said:

....Like I said in another thread, all of y'all please do EVERYTHING you can to stay out of the hospital. Stay away from the virus, sure. But also stay away from hot stoves, trampolines, sharp objects...

 

That occurred to me after I fell about four weeks ago, cracking some ribs and spraining my shoulder.  I made a doctor's appointment but ultimately cancelled it - after all, there wasn't much he would have done anyway.  But it made me think about avoiding any injury that might require a visit.

(Wish I hadn't run out of the pain medications from my November knee replacement though.  ;))

 

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1 hour ago, Brad_ATX said:

I think he's referring more to people rushing out to buy goods despite the fact that we have plenty of stock.  I.E. paper towels, toilet paper, etc.

Also ignorant ass behavior like people going to the beach this weekend instead of staying home.  People gathering like that encourages the spread and thus puts a strain on the medical system.

Thanks for the clarification. 

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Memphis just got the “stay at home” order starting at 6pm tomorrow. Apparently I’ll still be allowed to come to work because liquor stores fall under the grocery category. Although I dunno if that applies to global pandemics. 
 

Some people still don’t get it. I’ve gotten two people saying that they’re not worried about it. Offered curbside to one woman and she says, “well I’m not sick”. Lady, you don’t know that and two, you don’t know who’s touched what or has what. 

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4 minutes ago, ShocksMyBrain said:

Some people still don’t get it. I’ve gotten two people saying that they’re not worried about it. Offered curbside to one woman and she says, “well I’m not sick”. Lady, you don’t know that and two, you don’t know who’s touched what or has what. 


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"What we have is a failure to communicate"

But anything is possible, even Republicans are starting to come around:

Red vs. Blue on Coronavirus Concern: The Gap Is Still Big but Closing

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/upshot/coronovirus-public-opinion.html

 

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Everyone watch out for a shelter in place order this evening for your locale.

Got my essential personnel note today lol. 

tenor.gif

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19 hours ago, homersapien said:

That occurred to me after I fell about four weeks ago, cracking some ribs and spraining my shoulder.  I made a doctor's appointment but ultimately cancelled it - after all, there wasn't much he would have done anyway.  But it made me think about avoiding any injury that might require a visit.

(Wish I hadn't run out of the pain medications from my November knee replacement though.  ;))

 

Cracked ribs are a bitch. 

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