Serious thoughts on the 2023 season

[Viper 3,132]

35 minutes ago, AUwent said:

I would still say it's far too optimistic an outlook to say it's our floor but he almost certainly means the six bowls between Citrus and Birmingham.

He said the absolute worst we will do is 8-4.

[weagl1 1,784]

1 hour ago, Viper said:

He said the absolute worst we will do is 8-4.

Y’all need to quit reading them pre-season magazines that base this year’s expectations on last year’s results.  If we were down as badly as last year in the days before the portal it would take a couple of years to come back.  It’s a new day and Hugh is the man!  

[bigbird 60,525]

18 hours ago, weagl1 said:

Y’all need to quit reading them pre-season magazines that base this year’s expectations on last year’s results.  If we were down as badly as last year in the days before the portal it would take a couple of years to come back.  It’s a new day and Hugh is the man!  

When you literally replace half the roster with new guys, you can't base predictions on the previous results.  This is a new team, a new era, and we'll have new results.  

The doom and gloom that many CHOOSE to live with is exhausting.  It's time for Auburn to stop living like Eeyore.

[W.E.D 11,070]

25 minutes ago, bigbird said:

When you literally replace half the roster with new guys, you can't base predictions on the previous results.

Seems most of CFB predictors haven't caught up with this yet.  Even before trying to put teams into the top 25 heavily were heavily weighted on year prior.  Lose your 1st round QB?  No worry, still top 10!!

Now it's even more exacerbated and so hard to predict what a team is going to do.  We've got a lot new pieces.  Lot interesting.  Lot very key players.  Totally unknown how they mesh, fit into the scheme, etc. 

[AUpreacherman22 3,885]

On 6/14/2023 at 12:34 PM, bigbird said:

When you literally replace half the roster with new guys, you can't base predictions on the previous results.  This is a new team, a new era, and we'll have new results.  

The doom and gloom that many CHOOSE to live with is exhausting.  It's time for Auburn to stop living like Eeyore.

And the replacements are better than the ones they replaced in almost every case.   We don’t have elite talent yet, but we sure did make some significant strides in a very short period of time!

My 2023 expectations have gone up a good bit!

[auburnatl1 4,913]

On 6/14/2023 at 2:03 PM, W.E.D said:

Seems most of CFB predictors haven't caught up with this yet.  Even before trying to put teams into the top 25 heavily were heavily weighted on year prior.  Lose your 1st round QB?  No worry, still top 10!!

Now it's even more exacerbated and so hard to predict what a team is going to do.  We've got a lot new pieces.  Lot interesting.  Lot very key players.  Totally unknown how they mesh, fit into the scheme, etc. 

CU was in even worse shape and obviously went portal crazy. However even with a massive talent upgrade they’re still projected at only 3-4 wins. The main reason given - skepticism they can integrate a new roster together that quickly. I’m sure we’ve been tagged with the same thinking. We’ll see. August camp will be critical.

[AU120289 379]

Should be interesting to see how the new team handles a west coast road trip. When was the last time Auburn won a game in the State of California? 

[W.E.D 11,070]

7 hours ago, AU120289 said:

Should be interesting to see how the new team handles a west coast road trip. When was the last time Auburn won a game in the State of California? 

The only weird thing is gonna be the late start.  Cal is awful. We might have more people there than them.

We'll destroy Cal. It's gonna be a super late travel home day. Luckily we have Samford the next week

[Viper 3,132]

15 hours ago, AU120289 said:

When was the last time Auburn won a game in the State of California?

Never. 0-2.

Interesting note… both games we lost to a Heisman winner or eventual Heisman winner. 

Edited June 16, 2023 by Viper

[toddc 13,194]

C

[Swamp Eagle 5,137]

At least 9 wins including the bowl game. Save it.

[W.E.D 11,070]

5 minutes ago, Swamp Eagle said:

At least 9 wins including the bowl game. Save it.

I think 8+1 if the bowl game is favorable is really reasonable.  Just need a solid hit rate on our transfers and some solid impact.  I feel like we've got the coaching chops

[aucanucktiger 1,794]

I'm convinced that no legit analyst or respectable sports writer knows what to say with confidence about Thorne. Quality consensus seems to be he's alternately a game make & game breaker, and Auburn's 2023 season turns on him. IMHO if he's just average this season we lose to every decent team we play except Cal. That means we start 3-0 but end of 7-5 with a depressing 4 game losing streak mid season. Our D will be good again.

2024 is our year, baby!

[toddc 13,194]

 

[W.E.D 11,070]

22 minutes ago, toddc said:

 

Kinda surprised there are so many scholarship sets available.

[Lotto 170]

I see an 8 win season.  7-5 until the bowl and we go 8-5.  Could shock the world and go 10-3 though.  Honestly would not be surprised

[Tigger1985 806]

I think we are a whole lot better on offense. Defensively it’s a question if we can improve enough to stop someone. I see 8-9 wins

[AURex 1,998]

I think CHF has worked his butt off to fill holes on the roster, and he's pulled in some good players.

But I'm old. I've lived through a lot of seasons. I'm cautious. I'm waiting to see if a team made up of nearly 50% newbies can gel into a real, functional, SEC team.

Although I'd be ecstatic with a lot of wins, I think Auburn will be lucky to have a winning season.

I'll be present for every game, cheering on our guys. But that's my opinion. 7-5 at best.

 

 

Edited June 21, 2023 by AURex

[GreenTiger 1,006]

I’m choosing to be optimistic this year with our new staff and roster additions. Favorable schedule should help Freeze and company get a surprise win or two. 
 

I think Thorne will be an overall upgrade at QB and Freeze will have some fun packages for Ashford that will give opposing defenses problems. 

[Viper 3,132]

17 hours ago, AURex said:

7-5 at best.

Yup. Spot on. 

[gr82b4au 5,568]

I just don’t see how any magazine can make a reasonable prediction at this point. We may have up to nine new starters on offense, including three or four new people on the OL and a new quarterback. 
The first two preseason magazines did not even list P Thorne on the roster as a starter. Pretty sure that would change a few predictions. 

There are so many variables with a new coach and almost a completely new roster. We could be awesome. Or Not. Who knows? 

But it will be interesting to watch!!

Without having any idea what we will see, I’m just going to say between 6-6 and 8-4. Anything over that and Hugh Freeze would probably be coach of the year. Anything under that would be disappointing. 

[W.E.D 11,070]

26 minutes ago, gr82b4au said:

I just don’t see how any magazine can make a reasonable prediction at this point. We may have up to nine new starters on offense, including three or four new people on the OL and a new quarterback. 
The first two preseason magazines did not even list P Thorne on the roster as a starter. Pretty sure that would change a few predictions. 

There are so many variables with a new coach and almost a completely new roster. We could be awesome. Or Not. Who knows? 

But it will be interesting to watch!!

Without having any idea what we will see, I’m just going to say between 6-6 and 8-4. Anything over that and Hugh Freeze would probably be coach of the year. Anything under that would be disappointing. 

Predicting the next season was always a crapshoot in CFB b/c so many graduate and not really sure how good the backups are.  Now it's even exaggerated.

Hypothetically, if all our transfers are a mix of really solid to a few really good....there's no reason we can't win 10 games in the regular season.  Will we all gel perfectly w/out a spring?  Not sure, we'll see.  Luckily we have 4 garbage teams to get ready before A&M 

[gr82be 14,424]

On 6/14/2023 at 12:34 PM, bigbird said:

When you literally replace half the roster with new guys, you can't base predictions on the previous results.  This is a new team, a new era, and we'll have new results.  

The doom and gloom that many CHOOSE to live with is exhausting.  It's time for Auburn to stop living like Eeyore.

We have a Tigger mentality HC.

He's trying

 

[auburnatl1 4,913]

Hmmm…

https://auburnwire.usatoday.com/2023/06/21/auburn-football-sec-assistant-forecasts-weird-season-athlon-sports/

[W.E.D 11,070]

1 hour ago, auburnatl1 said:

Hmmm…

https://auburnwire.usatoday.com/2023/06/21/auburn-football-sec-assistant-forecasts-weird-season-athlon-sports/

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t’s gonna be another weird year. They’re getting a boost from [Hugh] Freeze coming back in the league and just not being Bryan Harsin. For all of Freeze’s problems, he can manage an SEC culture a thousand times better than Hars. … They’re starting over, but it’s Auburn, so they have good running backs. 

Agree here....a lot.  New staffs will have highs and lows that are unexpected/hard to plan.  Especially with so many additions post spring.

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Freeze didn’t really bring in the all-star staff he promised. It’s weird, there’s a lot of his Liberty dudes, and then you have Ron Roberts and the old Tulsa head coach [Philip Montgomery]

Hard to really judge a staff initially.  Saban fired his entire MSU staff before coming to LSU and did well.  Meyer took his entire staff of unknowns from Utah and dominated.  Harsin did the same and was a disaster.

We'll see how they do, they seem to be recruiting well.  Jake Thorton seemed to be the #1 hire and was a steal, but then we seemed to miss on a lot of people.  Got a few coaches that were fired/about to be fired.  There were some contract issues that limited us with an Ole Miss guy or two.  But I don't think we are littered with all of Hugh's #1 choices.

Marcus Davis was the last hire and would probably fall into that category, but look at what he's on the brink of for the '24 class.  

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He’s going to use the entire season as a recruiting platform like he did those first two years at Ole Miss because the offensive line and the receivers are bad and don’t know the system, but Auburn is going to expect him to operate on a faster timeline.

It's going to be a recruiting platform hopefully b/c we show promise.  Sure we'll be lacking deep talent, but hopefully with the portal it isn't going to be as evident as it was last 2-3 years. 

That' goes to the 2nd point, coming out of last year the "anonymous coach" is right.  OL and WR were a disaster.  Not sure we have any obvious 1st round picks/1st team SEC guys....but we now have SEC Avg players at a minimum vs guys that shouldn't even be on the roster.  And more importantly most of them are experienced players.  Good coaching/scheme can make them look better.  We've got 9 new portal starters?

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They’re so far behind Bama and Georgia; it’s maybe the biggest gap in decades.

Yeah.  It's really really really bad

Edited June 22, 2023 by W.E.D