Serious thoughts on the 2023 season

[JerryAU 1,659]

Truth be told, AU has fallen behind a few other SEC programs as well, not just the Big 2 in this conference.  There's been a slow and steady decline for years and it will take time to build it back up, let alone get it up to par at uat/uga levels.  It won't be an easy fix while several other programs are working like crazy to acquire top talent as well + UTx/Ok joining the ranks. 

 

[aucom96 1,618]

15 minutes ago, JerryAU said:

Truth be told, AU has fallen behind a few other SEC programs as well, not just the Big 2 in this conference.  There's been a slow and steady decline for years and it will take time to build it back up, let alone get it up to par at uat/uga levels.  It won't be an easy fix while several other programs are working like crazy to acquire top talent as well + UTx/Ok joining the ranks. 

And NIL... how much does it change the typical curve? How much does it freeze programs at a tight floor/ceiling that's almost impossible to overcome?

[JerryAU 1,659]

3 minutes ago, aucom96 said:

And NIL... how much does it change the typical curve? How much does it freeze programs at a tight floor/ceiling that's almost impossible to overcome?

NIL just throws up another hurdle in the road IMO.  Especially when we're told over and over in The Nest that there AU has a long list of "budget issues" within our AD + OTV has a big gap in $$ needed vs $$ collected over the next couple of years.  We hear non-stop that NIL collectives are not sustainable which is concerning for the future. 

[Mikey 16,597]

15 hours ago, JerryAU said:

We hear non-stop that NIL collectives are not sustainable which is concerning for the future. 

I don't think they are sustainable. Common sense dictates that people will soon stop sending money to an entity that cannot produce high level results. My guess is that in the end, the rich will get richer and the not so rich will be relatively poorer.

The cost of tickets, meals and so forth is now over $1,000 for a family of four coming from out of town. How many more $ is available from that family to buy athletes through the NIL?

[auburnatl1 4,911]

51 minutes ago, Mikey said:

I don't think they are sustainable. Common sense dictates that people will soon stop sending money to an entity that cannot produce high level results. My guess is that in the end, the rich will get richer and the not so rich will be relatively poorer.

The cost of tickets, meals and so forth is now over $1,000 for a family of four coming from out of town. How many more $ is available from that family to buy athletes through the NIL?

One consequence of inching closer to the pro model is the cost and its impact to the everyday fan. Another is the disparity of nil budgets. Its like mlb right now - no salary caps. Big “market” vs small market teams with wildly different budgets.  Big market teams win … a lot more. Imo an unrestricted nil arms race is something that we don’t want. At all (ie the Texas teams nil access is massive).

Edited June 23, 2023 by auburnatl1

[JerryAU 1,659]

3 hours ago, Mikey said:

I don't think they are sustainable. Common sense dictates that people will soon stop sending money to an entity that cannot produce high level results. My guess is that in the end, the rich will get richer and the not so rich will be relatively poorer.

The cost of tickets, meals and so forth is now over $1,000 for a family of four coming from out of town. How many more $ is available from that family to buy athletes through the NIL?

Agreed.  For my family contingent of about 24 folks, we all choose to give to AU Academics.  The only $$ AU Athletics gets from us are the cost of annual season ticket packages.  A lot of families may feel differently with their money, we made a choice decades ago and have stuck with it.

I personally can't see how a small group of very wealthy men will continue to pour millions and millions into an NIL collective year after year when sports teams aren't consistently in championship contention.  And in the case of AU particularly, after the +$80MM that has been thrown away for the football coaching carousel with contract buyouts in the last 3 years.  

Even IF I were to ever have that kind of money, my conscience and common sense wouldn't let me piss millions into the wind like that. It's insane. 

 

 

 

[W.E.D 11,070]

34 minutes ago, JerryAU said:

I personally can't see how a small group of very wealthy men will continue to pour millions and millions into an NIL collective year after year when sports teams aren't consistently in championship contention. 

They are doing this annually to TUF or the AD for facilities/fund raising.  They have have more money than they know what to do with.  This is their toy, their control, their fun.  It would be like you buying something for $100.

[CT Tiger 136]

10-2 absolute ceiling

6-6 the floor

8-4 my prediction

[auburnatl1 4,911]

1 hour ago, W.E.D said:

They are doing this annually to TUF or the AD for facilities/fund raising.  They have have more money than they know what to do with.  This is their toy, their control, their fun.  It would be like you buying something for $100.

The problem is there are universities with more and deeper “they”s. Ie. AUs endowment is just over $1b. UTx’s is over $42b.  We absolutely have a wealthy and  passionate booster community,  but if it becomes a full blown unrestricted nil contest - I don’t like where it might go.

Edited June 23, 2023 by auburnatl1

[W.E.D 11,070]

38 minutes ago, auburnatl1 said:

The problem is there are universities with more and deeper “they”s. Ie. AUs endowment is just over $1b. UTx’s is over $42b.  We absolutely have a wealthy and  passionate booster community,  but if it becomes a full blown unrestricted nil contest - I don’t like where it might go.

Endowment literally doesn't matter.  No one is using their endowment to fund NIL

[W.E.D 11,070]

I'm all for guard rails on NIL.  I'd prefer some union form of players, set salaries by year or something.  Funded by the AD/TV revenue.  Give these kids a lot of money.

I'd prefer the non-sense of raising money for kids vs the current NIL Collectives that is just buying kids vs making money from advertisements 

[gr82b4au 5,568]

23 hours ago, JerryAU said:

Truth be told, AU has fallen behind a few other SEC programs as well, not just the Big 2 in this conference.  There's been a slow and steady decline for years and it will take time to build it back up, let alone get it up to par at uat/uga levels.  It won't be an easy fix while several other programs are working like crazy to acquire top talent as well + UTx/Ok joining the ranks. 

 

 

it will take years

[auburnatl1 4,911]

1 hour ago, W.E.D said:

Endowment literally doesn't matter.  No one is using their endowment to fund NIL

it implies the wealth potential of their base but obviously they are completely different funds. My only point is imo it’s not in au’s best interests for this to evolve into a who’s daddy has the most money and passion to buy us the coolest stuff  contest.

[Win4AU 4,052]

I saw an article talking about ESPN’s PFI or whatever that predicts Auburn to get 6-7 wins.  
 

I see a lot of analysts that predict Auburn to get 6-7 wins.

 

I keep seeing Josh Pate post Vegas odds with Auburn 4-5th highest to win the SEC behind Bama, UGA, LSU, Texas A&M

I’ll take Vegas every time.  Weird how they set lines at 3.5 that end 27-24 a lot.

[toddc 13,194]

I doubt it for this season but I definitely think it happens in the 24 or 25 seasons.

[HabitualChiller 109]

I'm going with 7-5. Bama, LSU, and UGA will be auto-losses, then we'll slip and let a team steal a win from us. Finally, we'll get embarrassed vs. a team we were better than on paper.

[meh130 1,043]

Regarding NIL, the problem is the collectives. They were a weasel way to dance around the law to change the ability for an NCAA athlete to get paid for endorsements, to a straight pay for pay plan.

"NIL" was a legal term in the court case. In pro sports, we don't hear that an NBA player signed an "NIL deal" with Nike. We hear they signed an "endorsement deal" with Nike.

But we literally have collectives paying players to solicit donations to the collective. Soliciting donations is the quid pro quo "work" the athletes are doing to earn the money from the collective. Total self-dealing. Meanwhile, the #1 NIL issue, the NCAA video game, still can't figure it out 2 years after the court case. The collectives aren't out there soliciting endorsement deals for the athletes they have signed, that is on the athlete and the athlete's agent to find those opportunities.

[W.E.D 11,070]

1 hour ago, meh130 said:

Regarding NIL, the problem is the collectives. They were a weasel way to dance around the law to change the ability for an NCAA athlete to get paid for endorsements, to a straight pay for pay plan.

"NIL" was a legal term in the court case. In pro sports, we don't hear that an NBA player signed an "NIL deal" with Nike. We hear they signed an "endorsement deal" with Nike.

But we literally have collectives paying players to solicit donations to the collective. Soliciting donations is the quid pro quo "work" the athletes are doing to earn the money from the collective. Total self-dealing. Meanwhile, the #1 NIL issue, the NCAA video game, still can't figure it out 2 years after the court case. The collectives aren't out there soliciting endorsement deals for the athletes they have signed, that is on the athlete and the athlete's agent to find those opportunities.

I don't disagree.  Wouldn't be an issue tho if the NCAA or someone just stepped up and paid players 

[passthebiscuits 6,846]

My problem is that there’s nothing in the contract on the end for the player. For example, if I pay you for work, you should do the work. Or you’re fired or I get my money back.

i inquired about endorsing an athlete and made it all the way to the part where there was a contact, but I could never get the player to agree to the terms… i e the player could switch schools if he wanted, there was no guarantee the player would stay out of trouble to protect the branding, play a certain amount of games, make a certain amount of plays,,,etc. 

in a contract with a professional athlete, there’s a prid pro quo. This NIL stuff is literally just drop the bag for the athlete and his family and hope it’s bigger than the next guy’s. 
 

i probably didn’t write this clearly but maybe y’all can help me put it more eloquently. 

[bigbird 60,523]

8 hours ago, passthebiscuits said:

My problem is that there’s nothing in the contract on the end for the player. For example, if I pay you for work, you should do the work. Or you’re fired or I get my money back.

i inquired about endorsing an athlete and made it all the way to the part where there was a contact, but I could never get the player to agree to the terms… i e the player could switch schools if he wanted, there was no guarantee the player would stay out of trouble to protect the branding, play a certain amount of games, make a certain amount of plays,,,etc. 

in a contract with a professional athlete, there’s a prid pro quo. This NIL stuff is literally just drop the bag for the athlete and his family and hope it’s bigger than the next guy’s. 
 

i probably didn’t write this clearly but maybe y’all can help me put it more eloquently. 

There are no safeguards or assurances to the school or the "businesses". As you said, drop the bag and hope for the best 

[Tiger Refuge 6,663]

1 minute ago, bigbird said:

There are no safeguards or assurances to the school or the "businesses". As you said, drop the bag and hope for the best 

That’s why, to me, this feels very unsustainable.  It feels like something is going to have to change or the money is just gonna dry up. It’s the Wild West right now.

[bigbird 60,523]

Just now, Tiger Refuge said:

That’s why, to me, this feels very unsustainable.  It feels like something is going to have to change or the money is just gonna dry up. It’s the Wild West right now.

Exactly. The ones funding this aren't dumb business people

[Gowebb11 9,321]

1 hour ago, Tiger Refuge said:

That’s why, to me, this feels very unsustainable.  It feels like something is going to have to change or the money is just gonna dry up. It’s the Wild West right now.

Bingo. The NIL bagmen will free spend for a while. But if championships aren’t happening and rivals games are being lost the funds will dry up pretty quickly. 

[woodford 3,655]

The schools should just funnel TV money into the collectives and pay every single athlete before it goes to the courts. 

Sure is a lot of gloom and doom around here. Kirby sure has done a number of a few of you. We're behind, but it's not 2010 anymore. NIL and the portal exist. It has literally never been easier to rebuild a program. We are *this* close from flipping a 5* UGA and 5* Bama recruit. Absolutely unheard of 365 days ago.

As for Alabama everyone knows that they are slipping. The writing is on the wall. As for Georgia, they better hope the sexual assaults don't gain traction and they quit getting staffers killed in senseless car wrecks. I, for one, don't think they are sustainable. Georgia has had discipline issues for decades. Everyone should know better not to pencil teams in for a title or heaven forbid a three peat. I think a lot of SEC fans may underestimate how talented Michigan, tOSU, Southern Cal, and PSU are this year. I think the National Title is wide open at this point. 

[W.E.D 11,070]

1 minute ago, woodford said:

The schools should just funnel TV money into the collectives and pay every single athlete before it goes to the courts. 

Or just a wild idea...use the TV revenue that is generated by the players to pay them w/out collectives