Auburn @ Texas A&M Score Predictions

[W.E.D 11,070]

I think we match up well to some of their strengths. Good secondary, okay pass rush vs what seems to be a pretty high powered offense.  QB seems to be turnover prone when playing a decent team and we're pretty aggressive in the secondary. QB isn't too mobile to hurt us badly on post blitz scrambling. 

Their defense is okay. Our offense is who knows.

Jimbo is awful

Can we score enough to keep up with them? Is this the week the offense comes together and and looks somewhat cohesive all around?

IMO the only way we win is if we are +2 in turnovers and score off them. We need more possessions.

I think I've probably lose 35-17 or something.  We just aren't there yet on offense. 

[NWALA Tiger 3,535]

7 minutes ago, bigbird said:

Us: 38

Them: 30

U really think we score 38?

[bigbird 60,580]

9 minutes ago, NWALA Tiger said:

U really think we score 38?

I think we can. I think we match up well as far as O vs D. 

[Mikey 16,777]

To win this one, AU will have to put together all the things we've been experimenting with. I'm hoping this happens.

On the downside, we have three key DB's and one LB injured and their strength is the passing attack. A rational person would take A&M and the betting line.

However, I'm thinking AU 27, A&M 24. This one won't be for those who are faint hearted.

[CoffeeTiger 5,227]

On paper aTm should win without a lot of trouble. They have more talent, it's at home for them, and AU has the injury bug and questionable QB play. 

BUT

Jimbo Fisher is their head coach which automatically means they are very capable of playing a real stinker of a game and allowing AU to out perform them on the field. 

 

I'll pick AU 34-27 just because I want to believe, but I'm not necessarily 'expecting' us to win this one. 

 

[JDUBB4AU 5,138]

29 minutes ago, Mikey said:

To win this one, AU will have to put together all the things we've been experimenting with. I'm hoping this happens.

On the downside, we have three key DB's and one LB injured and their strength is the passing attack. A rational person would take A&M and the betting line.

However, I'm thinking AU 27, A&M 24. This one won't be for those who are faint hearted.

I like what you said at the end of your post. Take your meds in pregame guys. We need to go into this SEC schedule with zero expectations. Some may not even need to watch. I honestly have no idea what we are about to witness

[AUINSY 2,228]

depends on whether we're in the same giving mood that we have been with giving 2-3 turnovers per game

[Viper 3,139]

2 hours ago, Duder said:

If I bet this I'm taking A&M to cover.  By composite they have the 4th most talented roster in CFB. We are like 15?  At their place, early kick.  I hate it but unless Hugh has a ton of aces up his sleeve, we are at the start of a 3 game skid

You won the Week 3 pickem. We agree. 

[hutchids 227]

With injuries, lack of offensive identity, and turnovers, Auburn doesn't appear to be very good this year. The good news is, neither is A&M. Yes, aggies have talent, but they have had talent every year under jimbo. Aggies lose when they shouldn't. Auburn has already won one against cal on the road; one that Auburn really should have lost.

Then there is the historical aspect. For whatever reason, the road team does well in this series, and if a team wins a home game, it tends to lend itself to short win streak. For whatever reason, Auburn wins. Hopefully, this is a tigers team that gets better as the season moves on.

[Viper 3,139]

2 hours ago, AuCivilEng1 said:

Unless Hugh has been holding back. Then

Auburn -42

Texas A&M - 24

Yup Hugh banked on the Cal kicker missing three FGs.

[C'viewTiger 242]

AU-28

aTM-23

[AUpreacherman22 3,892]

Us and A&M may be the 2 most unpredictable teams in the SEC.  We both have so many question marks!

A&M has a lot more talent and the home field advantage.  (although we have had a lot of success in College Station)

Im thinking something along the lines of 31-17 A&M, but I sure hope I’m wrong.  

[ScotsAU 1,343]

13 hours ago, TeamZero77 said:

Tell me what Auburn has done on offense that makes you so confident. You say Petrino hasn't called a good game since 2015 but Montgomery has been straight up ass with his playcalling in my opinion. We turn the ball over alot, we have several injuries and they're quiet a bit more talented than we are. 

I picked us to win 24-19 just because the visiting team usually wins in this series. I don't feel confident in my pick whatsoever. I think we could very easily lose our next 4 games. We should've lost to Cal. Colorado won 1 game last year and it was against Cal. Cal struggled against freaking Idaho saturday. They aren't a good team at all. 

Just like you don't get why people think A&M will beat us, I don't get what makes you so confident that we'll beat them. Especially by 2 touchdowns like you predicted. 

Offense seemed to start finding rhythm and identity last weekend for us. A&M has no offensive identity, and appears clueless for how to look for one. Auburn is starting to trend upward. A&M has steadily been trending downward for a couple of years. We beat them last year with an interim coach, and they aren’t any better this year. So, I don’t see how we lose with a better team than we had last year. 
 

In addition to that, I just don’t think Petrino and Jimbo are good coaches anymore. They both have similar stories. Since snaps started being more shotgun/spread oriented, neither has had any success aside from the years they had a heisman winner at QB. Both ran power five programs into the ground. Jimbo was criticized last year for bland outdated offense. To correct that he brings in… another guy that runs bland outdated offense. Until I see them look good against a decent opponent, I’m not buying into the narrative that they’re better than last year. And since we beat them last year with less talent and worse coaching than we have now, … I just don’t see it.

Edited September 19, 2023 by ScotsAU

[fishepa 1,911]

23-20 good guys

[aubcali 436]

A&M   19

AU      10

Hope I’m wrong!  

[Viper 3,139]

1 hour ago, ScotsAU said:

they aren’t any better this year

They are much better this year than last. Not even close. Stats prove it.

1 hour ago, ScotsAU said:

Both ran power five programs into the ground.

Petrino left Louisville with a 12-1 record. 

Left Arkansas with a 11-2 record.

Without Lamar, left Louisville the 2nd time with a 2-7 record.

So 2 out of 3.

What he achieved at those two programs hasn’t been duplicated since and likely won’t be duplicated or surpassed in our lifetimes again. 

1 hour ago, ScotsAU said:

another guy that runs bland outdated offense.

Runs play action and throws to the TE. Have you watched the NFL the last several years?

Edited September 19, 2023 by Viper

[ScotsAU 1,343]

46 minutes ago, Viper said:

They are much better this year than last. Not even close. Stats prove it.

Petrino left Louisville with a 12-1 record. 

Left Arkansas with a 11-2 record.

Without Lamar, left Louisville the 2nd time with a 2-7 record.

So 2 out of 3.

What he achieved at those two programs hasn’t been duplicated since and likely won’t be duplicated or surpassed in our lifetimes again. 

Runs play action and throws to the TE. Have you watched the NFL the last several years?

I do statistics for a living. They can be incredibly misleading. 

Again, I’d encourage you to actually watch the game against Miami. They were successful getting points against inferior competition. The offense looked bad against Miami. They struggled to run the ball, turned it over a lot, and play calling was very telegraphed. All of this happened with a ton of returning starters, and QB-WR rooms that have had ample time to build chemistry with each other. One of the things holding us back is the number of new guys in starting positions. No chemistry between our QB and WR, and the coaches are still trying to figure out what works best with our personnel. That bodes well for the possibility of improvement. A&M’s problems aren’t likely to get better. A&M was bad against their one good opponent, and no part of it was due to issues that are likely to improve during the season.
 

As for the Petrino records, I’d encourage you to go back to what I said. The game has gotten past him. His offense worked before he left Arkansas. As the game has evolved, he really hasn’t evolved with it. Hence the terrible record at the end of his last tenure at Louisville. When he did have success at Louisville the second time, it was largely because  of Lamar and his ability to make something happen when Petrino’s plays inevitably broke down.
 

To your final point, NFL and college are very different. College offense are much more scheme oriented. (Our offensive identity is X.) 

NFL offenses are generally schematically pretty similar. In the NFL, coaches spend significantly more time watching film for the purpose of adapting their offensive play calling around opponent weaknesses. College teams do this, but not near to the extent of NFL teams. Comparing what works in the NFL to the college game is not the best comparison.  Instead, consider this question… How many teams that are successful in college call plays like Petrino does?

Edited September 19, 2023 by ScotsAU

[gr82b4au 5,568]

6 hours ago, W.E.D said:

Jimbo is awful

I agree with this 

[bg5 536]

I hope my opinion changes this week but I just haven't seen anything from us that would make me think we can beat even a middle of the road SEC team. We have not played well in the first three games. I have a lot of faith in CHF to get things turned around but I don't think it's going to happen this year. Them 38- Us 16

[e808 3,028]

16 minutes ago, bg5 said:

I hope my opinion changes this week but I just haven't seen anything from us that would make me think we can beat even a middle of the road SEC team. We have not played well in the first three games. I have a lot of faith in CHF to get things turned around but I don't think it's going to happen this year. Them 38- Us 16

Respectfully what makes u think Auburn can’t beat any middle of the road SEC team or alleged top tier teams. From what I have seen all of the SEC teams could lose on any given Saturday. The SEC as a conference is down. Auburn just needs to navigate this rough stretch. After that all games are very winnable IMO.
It looks ugly on the Auburn side because of penalties and turnovers. It’s really hard to gauge the identity of this team. 

Edited September 19, 2023 by e808

[Viper 3,139]

1 hour ago, ScotsAU said:

I do statistics for a living. They can be incredibly misleading. 

Again, I’d encourage you to actually watch the game against Miami. They were successful getting points against inferior competition. The offense looked bad against Miami. They struggled to run the ball, turned it over a lot, and play calling was very telegraphed. All of this happened with a ton of returning starters, and QB-WR rooms that have had ample time to build chemistry with each other. One of the things holding us back is the number of new guys in starting positions. No chemistry between our QB and WR, and the coaches are still trying to figure out what works best with our personnel. That bodes well for the possibility of improvement. A&M’s problems aren’t likely to get better. A&M was bad against their one good opponent, and no part of it was due to issues that are likely to improve during the season.
 

As for the Petrino records, I’d encourage you to go back to what I said. The game has gotten past him. His offense worked before he left Arkansas. As the game has evolved, he really hasn’t evolved with it. Hence the terrible record at the end of his last tenure at Louisville. When he did have success at Louisville the second time, it was largely because  of Lamar and his ability to make something happen when Petrino’s plays inevitably broke down.
 

To your final point, NFL and college are very different. College offense are much more scheme oriented. (Our offensive identity is X.) 

NFL offenses are generally schematically pretty similar. In the NFL, coaches spend significantly more time watching film for the purpose of adapting their offensive play calling around opponent weaknesses. College teams do this, but not near to the extent of NFL teams. Comparing what works in the NFL to the college game is not the best comparison.  Instead, consider this question… How many teams that are successful in college call plays like Petrino does?

Don’t disagree with anything you said, but you’re underestimating Petrino as an OC. This isn’t Jason Campbell under center with two TEs faking to Tre Smith and hitting a wide open Robert Johnson for another TD in Tuberville-Denny. He’s evolved but still incorporates the play fake.

Petrino is a master of getting a D moving one direction, by formation, trend or repetition, or a combo thereof, and hitting that D in the opposite direction. He’s much more dangerous as an OC rather than as a HC due to preparation time. Don’t discount the old jedi master. 

Miami is a good team. A&M has more talent than us. They have veteran coaches and home field (yes I’m well aware of AU’s record there). If A&M doesn’t cover the 7.5 point spread, that will be considered a major step in the positive direction for us.

I was a math major long ago. Football stats are very telling. I use them religiously in winning.

[woodford 3,678]

I hate we're so banged up on defense. I don't think Auburn could beat TAMU straight up right now. 

However, could Auburn win a rock fight? I think so. Force turnovers and take advantage of a half-asleep crowd. 

Big question is how much does Jimbo care? If Auburn gets ahead does, he really care? If he keeps losing, he's guaranteed $80M or so. These incentives matter.

I have two score predictions:

TAMU 28 - 14 (If TAMU shows up)

Auburn 17 - 14 (If it's a rock fight)

[aubiefifty 17,100]

ask bird..........the early bird gets the worm. the mighty war eagles are flyng in for an early game saturday and i believe it is a sign...................grins

[HAPvsOA 339]

6 minutes ago, woodford said:

I hate we're so banged up on defense. I don't think Auburn could beat TAMU straight up right now. 

However, could Auburn win a rock fight? I think so. Force turnovers and take advantage of a half-asleep crowd. 

Big question is how much does Jimbo care? If Auburn gets ahead does, he really care? If he keeps losing, he's guaranteed $80M or so. These incentives matter.

I have two score predictions:

TAMU 28 - 14 (If TAMU shows up)

Auburn 17 - 14 (If it's a rock fight)

19-3 AU if the defense is legit as good as it's looked thus far and TAMU doesn't show.

19-17 AU if TAMU shows up.  

Edited September 19, 2023 by HAPvsOA

[cbo 7,979]

Texas A&M - 31

Auburn - 20