First Year Expectations - Harsin

[aubearcat 2,137]

14 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

 

Basically, show me hope for progress.

Indeed 

[AuburnTiger4Life 2,225]

I hope we get to play a full schedule next season. Akron is a good scrimmage for us to get ready for Penn State 

[AuburnTiger4Life 2,225]

6 minutes ago, aubearcat said:

Indeed 

I think if we can get better on the d-line we should at least be able to stay in games. Our LBs and DBs are pretty good. And as bad as the o-line is at least they’ll have some experience returning. 

[Mikey 16,578]

Since the "instant play" part of the transfer rule has been quashed, I don't think we lose many, if any more to transfers other than grad transfers. Which is to say, we have a veteran team coming back with a lot of good players.

If we have hired the right guy and he can coach football, 9-3 should be our bottom. That's assuming a return to a normal 12 game,  eight SEC game schedule.

[steeleagle 2,945]

24 minutes ago, Mikey said:

Since the "instant play" part of the transfer rule has been quashed, I don't think we lose many, if any more to transfers other than grad transfers. Which is to say, we have a veteran team coming back with a lot of good players.

If we have hired the right guy and he can coach football, 9-3 should be our bottom. That's assuming a return to a normal 12 game,  eight SEC game schedule.

9-3 our bottom for 2021?

No way.

FIrst, these players have to learn a whole different offense and defense. Do we have all the players that fit those new schemes? I doubt it.

Second, if we don't have a spring, no way we come close to 9 wins.

I think there will be learning curve for this team.

I see 7, no more than 8 wins.

[aucanucktiger 1,791]

9 wins, including some aggravatingly "more of the same" from O line and Bo, and glaring lack of depth.

BUT, 2022 is the season to watch for what this staff has done. AND historically our new HCs do big things very quickly. Gus was in natl title game 1st season, Chizik won it all 2d season, Tubbs in SEC title game 2d season, Tator Tot went undefeated 1st season, Dye had us beat Bama 2d season for first time in a decade.

[McLoofus 35,182]

4 hours ago, Brad_ATX said:

Not even looking at our record next year.  More comparable to 1981 for me and Pay Dye's first year.  Whole program needs a cultural change and with some attrition this year due to transfers and guys leaving early, I'm not expecting immediate success.  Care much more about how we play.  Are we competitive against Bama, UGA, LSU, and Penn State, particularly in the road games?  Do we look like we're trying to impose our will on offense again?  Is play calling mixed and creative?  Are we seeing players get better?

Basically, show me hope for progress.

Pretty much what I say in every preseason expectations thread. Because if a program with our resources recruits and does the above, then the hardware will follow. Or at least the opportunity to be "the other team" in those games.

We haven't done these things much the last decade. 

[AUwent 3,748]

We could go 7-6 and IF the following three things happen:

A. Our recruiting class for 2022 finishes at least 12ish (with the strength being the O-line) and pretty much everyone qualifies

B. We play close in all our losses

C. No big sudden departures ala Dyer (because I’m still scarred by that, thought if we could make a bowl in 2011 we’d be an SECC contender in 2012–I guess I was one year early lol but still)

Then I feel like that would be a successful first year.

[steeleagle 2,945]

On 1/12/2021 at 12:44 PM, aucanucktiger said:

9 wins, including some aggravatingly "more of the same" from O line and Bo, and glaring lack of depth.

BUT, 2022 is the season to watch for what this staff has done. AND historically our new HCs do big things very quickly. Gus was in natl title game 1st season, Chizik won it all 2d season, Tubbs in SEC title game 2d season, Tator Tot went undefeated 1st season, Dye had us beat Bama 2d season for first time in a decade.

I think if the 2nd year was the year we get GA and Bama at home I would agree with this record, but I dont' see it.

If we get 8 wins in 2022 I will be happy (and that's assuming Bo stays for his SR year).

In 2021, I would hope we could win 8. The problem is going to be implementing a whole new D and O and how much depth we have at positions. Also, We HAVE to have a spring training, in order to be competitive enough to win 8 games. 

[Tigerpro2a 5,650]

15 minutes ago, steeleagle said:

I think if the 2nd year was the year we get GA and Bama at home I would agree with this record, but I dont' see it.

If we get 8 wins in 2022 I will be happy (and that's assuming Bo stays for his SR year).

In 2021, I would hope we could win 8. The problem is going to be implementing a whole new D and O and how much depth we have at positions. Also, We HAVE to have a spring training, in order to be competitive enough to win 8 games. 

I am with you. I think we have a better opportunity in 2021 than in 2022. Realistically, we shouldn't give much judgement to this staff until the 2023 season. That will be year 3 for Harsin. Will be playing with mostly guys he recruited at that point. We should at least have a good idea of the trajectory of the program by that season.

As for 2021, I have no expectations as far as record. I just want us to look better and more competently coached. I want to see us make adjustments mid game. Progression as the season goes. I think we have a floor of 5-7 and a ceiling of 9-3. 10 wins and I will paint a mural of CBH on my wall!.

 

[W.E.D 11,070]

I think how we play will be more of a factor than our record.

We're going to undoubtedly lose to UGA and Bama.  But is the game a blowout or is it at least somewhat competitive.  You can probably toss LSU into this group as well b/c it is away and we're cursed in Death Valley.

So we're already at 3 losses.  We should have lost to both Ole Miss & Arkansas.  They are programs on the rise.  State is getting better.

A&M is probably the only program that has gotten worse from last year.  We should actually beat USC this year.

9-3 would be really really tough.  If we go 8-4 I think that's pretty successful.

[Tigerpro2a 5,650]

28 minutes ago, W.E.D said:

I think how we play will be more of a factor than our record.

We're going to undoubtedly lose to UGA and Bama.  But is the game a blowout or is it at least somewhat competitive.  You can probably toss LSU into this group as well b/c it is away and we're cursed in Death Valley.

So we're already at 3 losses.  We should have lost to both Ole Miss & Arkansas.  They are programs on the rise.  State is getting better.

A&M is probably the only program that has gotten worse from last year.  We should actually beat USC this year.

9-3 would be really really tough.  If we go 8-4 I think that's pretty successful.

The fact that this is a forgone conclusion without seeing even a spring practice doubles down on the fact that change was needed. I will be happy to get back to where no game is a forgone conclusion because even when the other team out talents us on paper, we come in ready to fight. I believe we will get there. .

UGA are perennial Off-season Nation Champions. I am not naive to the recruiting they have done, neither am I naive to the Kirby coaching blunders. He owned Gus, but we do not know yet how the new staff will fair. If we have full stands I give us a chance. With limited capacity, I think it is unlikely

Bama is Bama. I do expect them to take a step back this year offensively, but there defense should be much improved. We aint beating Bama, period. 

LSU is the conundrum on this one for me. They are really hard to gauge right now. They out talent us on paper for sure. I am not sold on the hires Ed O made just yet. Offensively they will be good. Defensively....who knows. They were a train wreck last year. If it was at home, I would pick us. Being away...I give us a 40% chance. 

Tex AM- They will take a step back. I think they lose most of their OL and their QB which that could be addition by subtraction in all honesty. I think we beat Tex AM. It is on the road and we usually win those.

I can see us getting 9-3. It is not unattainable. 8-4 IMO is the most likely scenario.

[W.E.D 11,070]

1 minute ago, Tigerpro2a said:

The fact that this is a forgone conclusion without seeing even a spring practice doubles down on the fact that change was needed

Yeah, fully agree.  We aren't competitive.  And most of our wins vs these two were extremely lucky.  Both 2013 wins and 2019's multiple pick 6s.

2 minutes ago, Tigerpro2a said:

UGA are perennial Off-season Nation Champions. I am not naive to the recruiting they have done, neither am I naive to the Kirby coaching blunders. He owned Gus, but we do not know yet how the new staff will fair. If we have full stands I give us a chance. With limited capacity, I think it is unlikely

UGA does lose a lot.  I think their defense is getting obliterated, but they can somewhat reload.   I'm a bit concerned Kirby realized he actually has a QB and can have an explosive offense.  UGA will hype that to your point as offseason champions, but it was against awful competition.

4 minutes ago, Tigerpro2a said:

Bama is Bama. I do expect them to take a step back this year offensively, but there defense should be much improved. We aint beating Bama, period. 

Yup.  Unfortunately taking a step back from best offense ever will still be good.  lol

5 minutes ago, Tigerpro2a said:

LSU is the conundrum on this one for me. They are really hard to gauge right now. They out talent us on paper for sure. I am not sold on the hires Ed O made just yet. Offensively they will be good. Defensively....who knows. They were a train wreck last year. If it was at home, I would pick us. Being away...I give us a 40% chance. 

We're just curse there.  Hopefully we can break it.  They'll be good on offense, but hopefully the defense is still a mess and Harsin can earn his paycheck.

6 minutes ago, Tigerpro2a said:

I can see us getting 9-3. It is not unattainable. 8-4 IMO is the most likely scenario.

9-3 means we beat @PSU, Aggies, and don't slip up against teams that beat us last year, Ark/Ole Miss.  I'd sign up for 9-3 and losing (hopefully competitively) to the big 3.  I think that's a tough road

[Tigerpro2a 5,650]

20 minutes ago, W.E.D said:

Yeah, fully agree.  We aren't competitive.  And most of our wins vs these two were extremely lucky.  Both 2013 wins and 2019's multiple pick 6s.

27 minutes ago, Tigerpro2a said:

I disagree on the wins vs Bama being lucky. I would argue that 2019 was closer to lucky than 2013, even though I do not consider pick 6s lucky. It is part of the game. 2013 yes we finished the game with a one in a million play, but we called TO to put davis back there so he could return it. I think we win without it. We had the momentum at the end of the game. I think it goes to OT and we win. 

2013 UGA was luck lol

[W.E.D 11,070]

2 minutes ago, Tigerpro2a said:

I disagree on the wins vs Bama being lucky. I would argue that 2019 was closer to lucky than 2013, even though I do not consider pick 6s lucky. It is part of the game. 2013 yes we finished the game with a one in a million play, but we called TO to put davis back there so he could return it. I think we win without it. We had the momentum at the end of the game. I think it goes to OT and we win. 

2013 UGA was luck lol

Two in a game, especially the distance is bordering on luck.  Agree we did have to make those plays

Agree IB 2013 was good coaching and more absurdity vs luck

[The Freak 2,527]

Don't forget Tua was out in 2019, too.

[Hydro-Logic 49]

To the OP, I go in every year expecting to win every game... only to be disappointed; my expectations nonetheless...

[Hay Field 101 629]

41 minutes ago, The Freak said:

Don't forget Tua was out in 2019, too.

That is true but didn't they have a couple of fellows on that team that would be up for the Heisman trophy in a few months? I might be wrong and probably am just thinking out loud.

[The Freak 2,527]

8 minutes ago, Hay Field 101 said:

That is true but didn't they have a couple of fellows on that team that would be up for the Heisman trophy in a few months? I might be wrong and probably am just thinking out loud.

None in the the final four (Jalen was at Oklahoma by then).

[VAtiger12 112]

I'm a pretty optimistic person about Auburn usually but I think 7-5 probably should be a considered a feat next year.

I expect the defense to get a bit better from where it was this year but the offense I think could be an absolute mess. We lose most of our playmakers and the depth at RB is not good. Plus where we are on the OL needs work. Mike Bobo has never really been an elite OC (not disputing his recruiting) I think the defense will have to really keep us in games and we have to hope for some major playmakers to breakout on offense. 

[difball 310]

I'll settle for an improvement in the red zone - more Touchdowns vs FG. With play calling that is ready, mature and prepared and makes sense. Instead of mass confusion, cute gadget plays, late calls to the huddle and timeouts. As frazzled as our play calling was in the middle of the field sometimes - in the red zone it was a total freakout - I want that to go away. I want us to get to the red zone and play like we expect to score each and every time and show that poise.

Swinging gate can go away too.  Let's be pros.

[AUwent 3,748]

5 hours ago, Tigerpro2a said:

I am with you. I think we have a better opportunity in 2021 than in 2022. Realistically, we shouldn't give much judgement to this staff until the 2023 season. That will be year 3 for Harsin. Will be playing with mostly guys he recruited at that point. We should at least have a good idea of the trajectory of the program by that season.

As for 2021, I have no expectations as far as record. I just want us to look better and more competently coached. I want to see us make adjustments mid game. Progression as the season goes. I think we have a floor of 5-7 and a ceiling of 9-3. 10 wins and I will paint a mural of CBH on my wall!.

 

If we don't really have much of a shot against Mordor and Isengard in 2021 anyway, wouldn't 2022 actually be more favorable overall, since we have a whole bunch of "swing games" away in '21? PSU, Arky, LSU, A&M, rotating east opponent (USCe and Mizzou, respectively) are all away in '21 and home in '22...

2023 is when we should really expect results, though. Not that it has any real bearing but historically, the 3s have been good to us. We've actually had four straight decades of beating UAT on both the 3s and 7s. Tangibly though, CBH will hopefully have a couple full quality recruiting classes by then--enough for the odd year advantage to matter, our cross div foe will be Vandy, and our OOC foe for then and '24 will be Cal-Berkeley. Of course, Tank will almost certainly be in the NFL by then.

[Old fan 47 770]

On 1/12/2021 at 11:12 AM, steeleagle said:

9-3 our bottom for 2021?

No way.

FIrst, these players have to learn a whole different offense and defense. Do we have all the players that fit those new schemes? I doubt it.

Second, if we don't have a spring, no way we come close to 9 wins.

I think there will be learning curve for this team.

I see 7, no more than 8 wins.

Agree. I see 7 wins and possibly 8 by beating someone we aren’t supposed to. One good thing is, teams can watch tape of Boise State, but it’s w different athletes. If we win 8 in 21 then to me that is success for a complete overhaul. I mean think about it, with GM we were still trailing way behind in recruiting. While the cupboard is far from bare, the depth just isn’t where it should be. I just want to see toughness and positive response from the players from a whole new scheme. I am looking at year 3 of Harsin as a major jump. 

[Old fan 47 770]

On 1/11/2021 at 1:40 PM, cole256 said:

Thanks for the laugh

The Gus regime was sinking after 8 years and it had become obvious. 21 will not be a miraculous turnaround, but that will not have anything to do with the current coaching staff. There are a lot of areas and coaching that need to be purged and that just wasn’t the case in Gus’ first two years. A new actual college system versus high school systems takes a while to implement. For all intents and purposes, the Gus Bus had become a train wreck and just wasn’t working anymore. 

[oracle79 3,569]

Winning record. Win the Bowl Game. Top 10 recruiting class composite with needs met.