How baseball gets a bid to NCAA Tournament

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

...but I still see a very narrow path as to how Auburn can receive an at-large bid to the tournament.

Auburn is currently 21-24 overall, and 7-18 in the SEC. They do, however, have a prior win over TAMU, bringing their record to 8-18 against SEC teams. The RPI is at 68 and the SOS is top 15 at 13th overall.

Auburn has 5 Sec games and a midweekers against North Alabama. 
 

Just for fun, let’s assume Auburn WINS OUT. Yes, that seems impossible but let’s just say it happens. Auburn would be in Hoover as the 12 seed, and possibly 11 if a few things go their way around the league. They would be 27-24 overall and 13-18 in SEC games played. Judging predicted RPI, it would be up to the high 50’s, and the SOS would likely be top 20 still, if not top 15.

Now, let’s get weird. Let’s say Auburn gets firecracker hot and wins three games in Hoover, making it to the semi-finals before being eliminated. If we assume Auburn would likely be getting a few wins over top 5 seeded teams in the SEC in this scenario, we can probably see the RPI jumping to the mid to high 40’s by the end of the tournament. Auburn, in this scenario, would be 30-26 overall, 16-20 in SEC games played, 45-50 RPI, and 10-15 in SOS.

I THINK this would at least get them under consideration. 
 

 

Now a step further, let’s say Auburn gets FOUR wins in Hoover, but cannot finish off the championship game. Maybe they lost an earlier game, and had to fight through to the end, so they pick up two losses.

That would give Auburn a 31-26 record overall, 17-20 in the SEC, an RPI of 40-45 and a top 15 SOS. 
 

Starting to at least look like a team the committee has to mention on selection day, right? 
 

Finally, let’s go real big:

Auburn goes to Hoover, runs through their first four games like wildfire, but run into the buzzsaw that is Vanderbilt in the championship game. This would mean Auburn only dropping one game in Hoover.

That leaves Auburn at 31-25, 17-19 in SEC games played, with an RPI likely of about 36-40, and a top 10 SOS.

That, my friends, is a good-side-of-bubble tournament team IMO.

 

The path is narrow, but I got too much Auburn in me to give up until I don’t see a way. 
 

Heck let’s just win the dern tournament and not worry about it. 

 

 

[AUpreacherman22 3,885]

Anything short of winning the tourney would be very difficult for us to get in.   As ridiculously talented as the SEC is, whoever wins it is going to be lucky and good.   Why not AU?   Let’s go do it!

[ArgoEagle 1,783]

Guys I'm lost here. Do we play ATM this weekend or not? Please advise. Thanks

[steeleagle 2,945]

11 hours ago, tigerbrotha12 said:

...but I still see a very narrow path as to how Auburn can receive an at-large bid to the tournament.

Auburn is currently 21-24 overall, and 7-18 in the SEC. They do, however, have a prior win over TAMU, bringing their record to 8-18 against SEC teams. The RPI is at 68 and the SOS is top 15 at 13th overall.

Auburn has 5 Sec games and a midweekers against North Alabama. 
 

Just for fun, let’s assume Auburn WINS OUT. Yes, that seems impossible but let’s just say it happens. Auburn would be in Hoover as the 12 seed, and possibly 11 if a few things go their way around the league. They would be 27-24 overall and 13-18 in SEC games played. Judging predicted RPI, it would be up to the high 50’s, and the SOS would likely be top 20 still, if not top 15.

Now, let’s get weird. Let’s say Auburn gets firecracker hot and wins three games in Hoover, making it to the semi-finals before being eliminated. If we assume Auburn would likely be getting a few wins over top 5 seeded teams in the SEC in this scenario, we can probably see the RPI jumping to the mid to high 40’s by the end of the tournament. Auburn, in this scenario, would be 30-26 overall, 16-20 in SEC games played, 45-50 RPI, and 10-15 in SOS.

I THINK this would at least get them under consideration. 
 

 

Now a step further, let’s say Auburn gets FOUR wins in Hoover, but cannot finish off the championship game. Maybe they lost an earlier game, and had to fight through to the end, so they pick up two losses.

That would give Auburn a 31-26 record overall, 17-20 in the SEC, an RPI of 40-45 and a top 15 SOS. 
 

Starting to at least look like a team the committee has to mention on selection day, right? 
 

Finally, let’s go real big:

Auburn goes to Hoover, runs through their first four games like wildfire, but run into the buzzsaw that is Vanderbilt in the championship game. This would mean Auburn only dropping one game in Hoover.

That leaves Auburn at 31-25, 17-19 in SEC games played, with an RPI likely of about 36-40, and a top 10 SOS.

That, my friends, is a good-side-of-bubble tournament team IMO.

 

The path is narrow, but I got too much Auburn in me to give up until I don’t see a way. 
 

Heck let’s just win the dern tournament and not worry about it. 

 

 

I appreciate you thinking and writing so much as to the possibilities of Auburn making the NCAAs. 

BUT...there is no way they are going to do even the lowest scenario you gave to get us in. We are not built to get on a roll and our relief pitching is just not consistent enough. Even last night...if we had not somehow gotten up by 2 going into the 9th inning, we would have given up the lead again, and either would have had to win it in the ninth or stretch our BP even more having to go xtra innings.

I want what you want, and I've watched and heard enough baseball over 60 years in my life to know teams can go on a stretch of winning and mental toughness to overcome losing. I just don't see it in this group. Prove we wrong if we can sweep this series. I'm begging for that chance...

 

[augolf1716 21,122]

2 hours ago, ArgoEagle said:

Guys I'm lost here. Do we play ATM this weekend or not? Please advise. Thanks

Yes won first game and ahead second game 9-7 top 6th..... weird we have hit 6 HB with only 9 runs. I didn't see it but we may have hit 3 straight HR in bottom of first... not sure

[ArgoEagle 1,783]

23 minutes ago, augolf1716 said:

Yes won first game and ahead second game 9-7 top 6th..... weird we have hit 6 HB with only 9 runs. I didn't see it but we may have hit 3 straight HR in bottom of first... not sureThank

Thanks Brother Golf.

[FUZZYAUFAN 134]

An error on bliss and aggies score three unearned runs in top of 8. Aggies now lead 11-9

[FUZZYAUFAN 134]

And Auburn goes 1, 2, 3 in eighth. 

[augolf1716 21,122]

49 minutes ago, ArgoEagle said:

Thanks Brother Golf.

Your welcome but now we're down 11-9 top 9th

[jared52 4,354]

This is the strangest baseball season I can remember. Just not any explanation how this roster can be this unsuccessful in SEC play. 

[AUBwins 10,075]

For reference, we were tied for last spot in SEC tourney with TAMU coming into today’s game.

[Gowebb11 9,320]

1 hour ago, jared52 said:

This is the strangest baseball season I can remember. Just not any explanation how this roster can be this unsuccessful in SEC play. 

I’ve seen enough to believe the roster was mis-evaluated. We need better players. Especially pitchers. 

[tigerman1186 537]

They shoot horses, don't they???? It's time to put the baseball season in the stable, you score 9 runs, hit 6 homers and still can't win....no way to sugar coat this season, but it has been very disappointing....I'm not pointing fingers, just thought we would have done much better.... 

[steeleagle 2,945]

Anyone know why Greeny was not in this game? W a 1 run lead he should have been brought in to close it out. 
he definitely should be able to do 2 inning. 

[tigerbrotha12 2,362]

Welp. A big Ole never mind on this thread 

[AU9377 4,929]

This team can pull defeat from the jaws of victory like no other.

[steeleagle 2,945]

13 hours ago, tigerbrotha12 said:

Welp. A big Ole never mind on this thread 

Welcome back to reality..

 

[steeleagle 2,945]

35 minutes ago, AU9377 said:

This team can pull defeat from the jaws of victory like no other.

Can you imagine being Butch? Having to go out there to bring in a reliever, and more than likely, he is going to go back out there time and time again to pull a pitcher that can't throw strikes, or put up a zero..

Again, where was Greenhill the last 2 games, when we were in close late games? Is he hurt again? 

[Tigerbelle 5,299]

21 hours ago, steeleagle said:

Anyone know why Greeny was not in this game? W a 1 run lead he should have been brought in to close it out. 
he definitely should be able to do 2 inning. 

He has been dealing with that foot injury all season. He may not be available right now. 

[Tigerbelle 5,299]

21 hours ago, Gowebb11 said:

I’ve seen enough to believe the roster was mis-evaluated. We need better players. Especially pitchers. 

Butch Thompson and Karl Nonemaker are very good at evaluating talent. That statement is just ludicrous. Auburn has the BEST middle infield in college, baseball, great outfielders, and some of the best hitters in the SEC. The types and numbers of injuries Auburn pitchers have suffered this season are beyond their control. 

[warbiscuit 278]

7 hours ago, steeleagle said:

Can you imagine being Butch? Having to go out there to bring in a reliever, and more than likely, he is going to go back out there time and time again to pull a pitcher that can't throw strikes, or put up a zero..

Again, where was Greenhill the last 2 games, when we were in close late games? Is he hurt again? 

 

51 minutes ago, Tigerbelle said:

He has been dealing with that foot injury all season. He may not be available right now. 

It's not the foot anymore, Greenhill injured the shoulder during the transition from starter to pitcher since the first Samford game. Also Glavine hurt his shoulder in the LSU series and Swilling has a minor back issue rn.

Edited May 16, 2021 by warbiscuit

[au302 2,669]

12 minutes ago, Tigerbelle said:

Butch Thompson and Karl Nonemaker are very good at evaluating talent. That statement is just ludicrous. Auburn has the BEST middle infield in college, baseball, great outfielders, and some of the best hitters in the SEC. The types and numbers of injuries Auburn pitchers have suffered this season are beyond their control. 

We had a nice win today and overall a good series. I'm hoping that the choke yesterday does not come back to bite us with making Hoover. However, in regards to what you just said, I think your view of Auburn baseball right now is way too optimistic, orange and blue glasses. I agree that we have a decent lineup and pretty good defense. Good on Nonemaker for finding those guys. That makes Butch and Hudson's evaluation and development of pitchers that much more perplexing, and frankly, inexcusable for an SEC program that just went to Omaha with a lot of the same guys in the lineup. You can't have it both ways. If our lineup and fielders are so great, then it really highlights just how horrendous our pitching staff has been. I would not be as upset if it weren't for Butch being a pitching coach. It's like how Gus was a supposed offensive guru, but at the end of his tenure we had a pathetic offense but were staying competitive because of Steele and the defense. Except, this team has been flat out bad and not mediocre like football was. I don't mean to sound harsh, I just think our program is better than this and there is ZERO excuse for this season, not after the trajectory the program was on, and returning a lot of guys off a team that just made Omaha. I would also bet Butch and staff would admit that this season has been inexcusable. If they did not, I would say that a change in leadership is needed for the program.

[warbiscuit 278]

35 minutes ago, au302 said:

We had a nice win today and overall a good series. I'm hoping that the choke yesterday does not come back to bite us with making Hoover. However, in regards to what you just said, I think your view of Auburn baseball right now is way too optimistic, orange and blue glasses. I agree that we have a decent lineup and pretty good defense. Good on Nonemaker for finding those guys. That makes Butch and Hudson's evaluation and development of pitchers that much more perplexing, and frankly, inexcusable for an SEC program that just went to Omaha with a lot of the same guys in the lineup. You can't have it both ways. If our lineup and fielders are so great, then it really highlights just how horrendous our pitching staff has been. I would not be as upset if it weren't for Butch being a pitching coach. It's like how Gus was a supposed offensive guru, but at the end of his tenure we had a pathetic offense but were staying competitive because of Steele and the defense. Except, this team has been flat out bad and not mediocre like football was. I don't mean to sound harsh, I just think our program is better than this and there is ZERO excuse for this season, not after the trajectory the program was on, and returning a lot of guys off a team that just made Omaha. I would also bet Butch and staff would admit that this season has been inexcusable. If they did not, I would say that a change in leadership is needed for the program.

I'm not gonna argue that Hudson hasn't managed the bullpen well. It was frustrating that Bright/Barnett would be one of the first ones out when they weren't doing well and not go to either Carson or even Morrison. But in the beginning of the season we had 6 of our 8 veteran guys(juniors and seniors) get injured around that time with Owen, Greenhill, Fitts, Skipper, Wade and Morrison, plus Burkhalter, Mullins, and Sokol getting injured during this time before SEC play. That's a lot of injuries to deal with. And also Seb Thomas getting into trouble and being eventually kicked off the team. It forced the younger guys to have roles they weren't ready for without having a bridge with some veteran guys and we saw Barnett and Bright lose confidence, for example. And Greenhill, Burkhalter and Fitts pitched through injury and I'm not sure who else did. I mean Glavine hadn't been used much before this year so I wouldn't call him a vet, so it was just Fuller before he struggled. Butch has admitted it was an awful season and Hudson hasn't done the best. But also we used to have an ace that would hide our bullpen depth in years past with Thompson/Mize/Burns. I'd give it another year with Hudson where he has a better situation, and he did well with Greenhill before injury. I'd say the bullpen management has gotten better recently, and Hudson could be an asset for recruiting. I wish Butch would handle bullpen and not hand it to a coach, but it's his decision. I'd keep for the younger guys  Burkhalter, Gonzalez, Sokol, Mullins, Swilling, Barnett, Gonzo and Bright and hope one/two improve enough to be a starter and at least four/five improve in general. With Mullins, I'd say he's a good pitcher but just needs to stay healthy. Gonzo has been good ever since his Alabama start. I'd keep Morrison, Skipper and Fuller, and Glavine if he returns. Fuller is more that they changed his mechanics this year, so I'd return him back to his old mechanics, plus he's a walkon and you won't find too many walkons that have done what he's done his first two years. Morrison is also a walk on from what I've heard, and he's actually been a good reliever at Auburn. Wade I'm gonna assume still has a spot, and just have to hope he recovers well. I'm assuming Fitts, Owen and Greenhill all leave btw.

Edited May 16, 2021 by warbiscuit

[Gowebb11 9,320]

1 hour ago, Tigerbelle said:

Butch Thompson and Karl Nonemaker are very good at evaluating talent. That statement is just ludicrous. Auburn has the BEST middle infield in college, baseball, great outfielders, and some of the best hitters in the SEC. The types and numbers of injuries Auburn pitchers have suffered this season are beyond their control. 

You are what your record says you are, and right now we are tied for 12th in a 14 team league. The divide between our pitching staff and the top tier teams is big, even when they are healthy. Watch the MLB draft this year before calling my comment ludicrous.  I remain a big fan of Butch and loved the way he has kept this team hustling and playing hard. 

Edited May 17, 2021 by Gowebb11

[steeleagle 2,945]

3 hours ago, warbiscuit said:

I'm not gonna argue that Hudson hasn't managed the bullpen well. It was frustrating that Bright/Barnett would be one of the first ones out when they weren't doing well and not go to either Carson or even Morrison. But in the beginning of the season we had 6 of our 8 veteran guys(juniors and seniors) get injured around that time with Owen, Greenhill, Fitts, Skipper, Wade and Morrison, plus Burkhalter, Mullins, and Sokol getting injured during this time before SEC play. That's a lot of injuries to deal with. And also Seb Thomas getting into trouble and being eventually kicked off the team. It forced the younger guys to have roles they weren't ready for without having a bridge with some veteran guys and we saw Barnett and Bright lose confidence, for example. And Greenhill, Burkhalter and Fitts pitched through injury and I'm not sure who else did. I mean Glavine hadn't been used much before this year so I wouldn't call him a vet, so it was just Fuller before he struggled. Butch has admitted it was an awful season and Hudson hasn't done the best. But also we used to have an ace that would hide our bullpen depth in years past with Thompson/Mize/Burns. I'd give it another year with Hudson where he has a better situation, and he did well with Greenhill before injury. I'd say the bullpen management has gotten better recently, and Hudson could be an asset for recruiting. I wish Butch would handle bullpen and not hand it to a coach, but it's his decision. I'd keep for the younger guys  Burkhalter, Gonzalez, Sokol, Mullins, Swilling, Barnett, Gonzo and Bright and hope one/two improve enough to be a starter and at least four/five improve in general. With Mullins, I'd say he's a good pitcher but just needs to stay healthy. Gonzo has been good ever since his Alabama start. I'd keep Morrison, Skipper and Fuller, and Glavine if he returns. Fuller is more that they changed his mechanics this year, so I'd return him back to his old mechanics, plus he's a walkon and you won't find too many walkons that have done what he's done his first two years. Morrison is also a walk on from what I've heard, and he's actually been a good reliever at Auburn. Wade I'm gonna assume still has a spot, and just have to hope he recovers well. I'm assuming Fitts, Owen and Greenhill all leave btw.

You named 9 pitchers that had some type of injury before or early in the season. 
now to have that many have injury issues is bc of what ? Bad luck or is it possible or training program or pitching approach helped create their problems. Did Thompson or Huddy try something different ? That’s a lot of pitchers to blame bad luck on. 
 

and I understand pitchers over the course of a season are going to have injury issues but not all at the start of a season.