The Harsin Question

[Mikey 16,579]

6 hours ago, toddc said:

Pete Thamel, Rece Davis weigh in on Bryan Harsin’s future beyond 2022

Pete Thamel hates Auburn with a deep and unrelenting hate. If he's right this time it will be the first time he's been right about anything concerning AU. Time after time he's ended up with egg on his face and each time he gets madder. Davis is a bammer. While Harsin may or may not last until next season I wouldn't throw pee on these two if they were in a burning car.

[Mikey 16,579]

4 minutes ago, cbo said:

Auburn is not close to the hardest job in college football. Vandy probably is.

Vandy may be the hardest place for a coach to win big but the expectations there aren't that great. Win six every now and then, beat Tenn. once every eight years, go to a bowl once a decade and run a clean program and you're set for life. There's no comparison with the pressure at AU vs. Vandy.

[cbo 7,843]

8 minutes ago, AUwent said:

Nah, I agree with Loof. Unfortunately, too many people are obsessed with keeping the status quo that is ultimately harming us as a program. Literally the only argument is crossing our fingers and praying that at some point in the near future at least one of UAT and UGA somehow miraculously fall, when there is literally no indicator of that happening in at least the next ten years.

Because of that, here are roughly what our goals should be for the time being (this is assuming we get a low-level third permanent):

-Appearance in 12 team playoff once every five years

-9 wins incl. bowl three of every five years

-Bowl eligibility (the traditional, non-APR way) every year

I can see how I wasn't clear. Loof always made the argument that Auburn was NOT the hardest job, with which I agree. Doesn't matter, but since he's not around, I wanted to clarify. 

[Taco 617]

3 minutes ago, Mikey said:

Pete Thamel hates Auburn with a deep and unrelenting hate. If he's right this time it will be the first time he's been right about anything concerning AU. Time after time he's ended up with egg on his face and each time he gets madder. Davis is a bammer. While Harsin may or may not last until next season I wouldn't throw pee on these two if they were in a burning car.

Thamel and Reece suck.
 

But their logic in what could happen isn't wrong or too far off the mark in my opinion. He wins, he’ll find his ticket out. If he continues to recruit like he has been and we miss a bowl game, he’s gone. 
 

Plus whenever we get the new AD (or promote McGlynn per some rumblings), I’m sure that’ll play a part too regarding the HC situation. 

[AUwent 3,748]

2 minutes ago, cbo said:

I can see how I wasn't clear. Loof always made the argument that Auburn was NOT the hardest job, with which I agree. Doesn't matter, but since he's not around, I wanted to clarify. 

Ah, my mistake. I agree with Loof on a lot of things but that's respectfully not one of them.

Edited September 16, 2022 by AUwent

[cbo 7,843]

5 minutes ago, Mikey said:

Vandy may be the hardest place for a coach to win big but the expectations there aren't that great. Win six every now and then, beat Tenn. once every eight years, go to a bowl once a decade and run a clean program and you're set for life. There's no comparison with the pressure at AU vs. Vandy.

That's a fair point. But I think it's harder to win six at Vandy than 9 or 10 at Auburn. 

[AUwent 3,748]

29 minutes ago, cbo said:

That's a fair point. But I think it's harder to win six at Vandy than 9 or 10 at Auburn. 

It's hard to say. POs me how bad our roster is set up for 2023 when it might be our most favorable schedule of the playoff era. Unless the newbies join, though, 2024 is an absolute nightmare (for both us and USCe). And after that, very unclear--though we are playing Baylor in '25 and '26. Yeah, we really really really need to play Candy every year.

Edited September 16, 2022 by AUwent

[Mikey 16,579]

1 minute ago, cbo said:

That's a fair point. But I think it's harder to win six at Vandy than 9 or 10 at Auburn. 

That's an interesting thought. I'll look up the records, maybe tomorrow. Does Vandy have more six win seasons over the prior 25 years than AU has 9/10 win seasons?

[cbo 7,843]

7 minutes ago, Mikey said:

Vandy may be the hardest place for a coach to win big but the expectations there aren't that great. Win six every now and then, beat Tenn. once every eight years, go to a bowl once a decade and run a clean program and you're set for life. There's no comparison with the pressure at AU vs. Vandy.

And I will add that a bowl once a decade and beating UT once every 8 years does not set a Vandy HC for life. I live in Nashville and that's definitely not the case. 

Expectations are obviously much lower than at Auburn, but they aren't that low. 

[cbo 7,843]

2 minutes ago, Mikey said:

That's an interesting thought. I'll look up the records, maybe tomorrow. Does Vandy have more six win seasons over the prior 25 years than AU has 9/10 win seasons?

Good question. I don't know.

James Franklin did well at Vandy and I honestly think he's a better coach than AU has had in years. I'm sure I will get destroyed for that, but his Vandy stint was very impressive. 

[AUwent 3,748]

13 minutes ago, Mikey said:

That's an interesting thought. I'll look up the records, maybe tomorrow. Does Vandy have more six win seasons over the prior 25 years than AU has 9/10 win seasons?

Well, that question is tricky just because before 2002 and 2004-5 you had 11 game seasons. So for the sake of this argument, I'll count 5-6 seasons in this years (as long as they played a BCS OOC opponent) as 6 wins:

-1999 (5-6)

-2005 (5-6)

-2008 (7-6)

-2011 (6-7)

-2012 (9-4)

-2013 (9-4)

-2016 (6-7)

-2018 (6-7)

Now, Auburn 9+ win seasons the last 25 years (1997-2021), using the same asterisk formula for regular seasons of less than 12 games:

-1997 (10-3)

-2000 (9-4)

-2002 (9-4)

-2004 (13-0)

-2005 (9-3)

-2006 (11-2)

-2007 (9-4)

-2010 (14-0)

-2013 (12-2)

-2017 (10-4)

-2019 (9-4)

So yes, we do have more 9+ win seasons in that time than Vandy does 6+. Keep in mind, though, that there is absolutely no indication that our rivals are going to return to their early-mid 2000s levels any time soon, not for another decade at least. Not to mention every time we schedule an OOC game that opponent somehow becomes a powerhouse (Baylor and Miami). Oh, AND we're losing a cupcake game. I cannot stress enough how dumb it is of some of our fans to want to play all three of Amen Corner every year.

Granted, the league being better than ever also makes Vandy's path tougher than it was back then, but we'll see who their permas are--I would give them Tennessee, Kentucky and us.

************

@cbo I wanted him in 2012.

Edited September 16, 2022 by AUwent

[gr82b4au 5,568]

25 minutes ago, cbo said:

Man, I like you but I hate this sentiment. Our old pal McLoofus (who I just messaged with and is doing great, for those interested), always made this argument and I feel the need to carry on his absence. 

Auburn is not close to the hardest job in college football. Vandy probably is. Look around the league. It's harder to win for at least half the teams in the SEC because they aren't football schools and have little to sell to recruits. There are only 5 or 6 schools in all of college football that have won a national championship since we did. And we played in another since then. 

Bama and Georgia won't be on top forever. And until they aren't, that should only mean two losses a season. None of this 8-5 and 6-6 s***. And, of course, we can beat them sometimes, as even Gus proved repeatedly. 

We just need the right coach. 

 

Vandy has no expectations.
All good. Agree to disagree. 

But I do think with the right coach we can win 

[TeamZero77 1,784]

14 minutes ago, Mikey said:

Pete Thamel hates Auburn with a deep and unrelenting hate. If he's right this time it will be the first time he's been right about anything concerning AU. Time after time he's ended up with egg on his face and each time he gets madder. Davis is a bammer. While Harsin may or may not last until next season I wouldn't throw pee on these two if they were in a burning car.

I remember when Pete Thamel absolutely bulldozed us during 2010 about the Cam Newton stuff. I've never liked Thamel. Isn't he at ESPN now? 

There was another guy in the national media that gave us absolute hell in 2010 about Cam and he is Bruce Feldman. It absolutely killed Thamel and Feldman that we won the Natty that year, Cam won the Heisman and went on to be #1 draft pick. 

Who was that older guy that was always on Finebaum in 2010 claiming that he knew "The Bagman" in the Cam Newton saga? He had black hair and looked like death warmed over. 

Rece Davis is actually a really nice guy even though he's a Bammer. I've met him and talked with him on 3 different occasions. The last time I saw him was in Tuscumbia, Al. at a Foodland grocery store and he was very cordial. He's from Muscle Shoals, Al. and had just gotten into town during Thanksgiving. He was in Foodland picking up some stuff to go to his parents and eat Thanksgiving then he was driving to Oxford to call The Egg Bowl. I've always thought that Rece and Kirk Herbstreit have always done a very good job of calling games and talking football and not showing noticeable favoritism to their alma maters. If I didn't know they went to Bama and Ohio State, I would never be able to tell just from listening to them on TV.

[AUwent 3,748]

2 minutes ago, TeamZero77 said:

Who was that older guy that was always on Finebaum in 2010 claiming that he knew "The Bagman" in the Cam Newton saga? He had black hair and looked like death warmed over. 

Danny Sheridian. Random but I remember when the Miami scandal happened and someone joked that the Miami booster involved, Shapiro, was in the grocery distribution business--maybe he was The Bagman! Thought that was really funny.

Edited September 16, 2022 by AUwent

[TeamZero77 1,784]

3 minutes ago, AUwent said:

Danny Sheridian. Random but I remember when the Miami scandal happened and someone joked that the Miami booster involved, Shapiro, was in the grocery distribution business--maybe he was The Bagman! Thought that was really funny.

Yes, that's the guy. Good grief he was annoying and he always claimed that Cam would be ineligible anyday now and Auburn would get hammered by the NCAA. Even in 2011 he would double down on his story and say Auburn would be vacating that National Title soon enough. I haven't seen him or even heard his name in years. Thank goodness.

[AUwent 3,748]

16 minutes ago, gr82b4au said:

Vandy has no expectations.
All good. Agree to disagree. 

But I do think with the right coach we can win 

Define "the right coach." Because I see people honest to god thinking we could get Aranda LOL. Would we be a more attractive job than we were two years ago if we got everybody on the same page? Yes! But our schedule is still going to make us massively less attractive than we otherwise could be. And god forbid certain people getting their wish about permanents.

Edited September 16, 2022 by AUwent

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

8 minutes ago, AUwent said:

Define "the right coach." Because I see people honest to god thinking we could get Aranda LOL. Would we be a more attractive job than we were two years ago if we got everybody on the same page? Yes! But our schedule is still going to make us massively less attractive than we otherwise could be. And god forbid certain people getting their wish about permanents.

In the new world where the conferences are the Big 10, the SEC, and everyone else fighting for scraps, Baylor won't be nearly as attractive.

Someone will absolutely snap up Aranda soon.

[Taco 617]

2 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

In the new world where the conferences are the Big 10, the SEC, and everyone else fighting for scraps, Baylor won't be nearly as attractive.

Someone will absolutely snap up Aranda soon.

Aranda intrigues me quite a bit. I feel like he’s done a good job at Baylor and his ‘23 class is stout, especially for Baylor 

[AU-24 3,071]

11 hours ago, AUwent said:

That begs the question--what if we do, well, as expected this season, and we don't have a permanent AD in place by December? Should we give Harsin a third year if he wants? From what WDEWDE has said, I really don't want Rich making a HC hire.

Obviously if we do better than expected this season, starting with a big victory over the Nits this weekend, which jumpstarts recruiting (Russaw and Smith), all the better! I'm just not expecting it.

Makes total sense. I’m just hoping and praying for the best!

[AU-24 3,071]

11 hours ago, toddc said:

Pete Thamel, Rece Davis weigh in on Bryan Harsin’s future beyond 2022

Chandler Vessels•about 22 hours

Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The future for Bryan Harsin at Auburn is clear to Pete Thamel and Rece Davis. No matter whether Harsin wins 10 games this season or five, he will not be the coach of the Tigers in 2023.

That is the conclusion the two ESPN insiders made together on Wednesday’s edition of the College GameDay podcast, citing offseason drama in which Auburn attempted unsuccessfully to fire Harsin for cause. With the resignation of athletic director Allen Greene in late August, Thamel believes a loss to No. 22 Penn State on Saturday could be the beginning of the end for Harsin.

“If they lose, does this start — their AD search is going on now and there’s a lot of people buzzing about that in AD circles — does this start what we all assumed is the inevitable exit of Bryan Harsin?” Thamel asked. “Which is not some manufactured media thing. They tried to get rid of him through that totally ridiculous, baseless witch hunt in February. They brought the program spiral upon themselves and now it’s just sort of how do they begin some sort of exit. 

“If Penn State goes in and wins authoritatively, that is where this Auburn season sadly goes. They completely Tonya Harding-ed his knees for lack of a better way to put it.”

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Harsin took over in 2021 after spending seven seasons at Boise State. He got the Tigers off to a solid 6-2 start, but they dropped their final five games of the season to finish 6-7. Ultimately Harsin kept his job, but the bizarre attempted firing this offseason puts immense pressure on him entering Year 2. 

Davis took it a step further than Thamel by saying that even if Auburn finds a way to beat the Nittany Lions and turns this into a successful year, he will leave on his own accord. 

“The Harsin exit is going to happen one way or the other,” Davis said. “If I’m wrong about Auburn and they play better in the passing game and beat Penn State and go on a run and have a really good season, then Harsin’s gone because he’ll find another job to take. If it goes the other way, then he’s gone for the reasons you say. This is going to happen. The question is when and how, at least to me. 

“There’s no coming back from what happened in the offseason long term. If there is any reprieve, it’s temporary. …I would be stunned if it’s not over one way or the other at the end of this year. It could be at the end of a 10-win Auburn season or at the end of a mediocre one. I think they’ve got decent talent — they’re not gonna go out and stink it up any game that they play. But this is not going to last long term. The powers that be there didn’t want it to last. They pushed out one of the best athletic directors in the game for some inexplicable reason. Now they get to do what they want, and they’ll start over and get different guys.”

Finally, Thamel pointed to one last sign that Bryan Harsin’s future at Auburn is in jeopardy. Despite bringing in the seventh-best recruiting class in the SEC in 2022, the Tigers rank 13th for 2023 according to On3 Consensus. The ESPN senior writer believes that shows that recruits are scared of making a commitment to a coach that likely won’t by there by the time they arrive. 

“In composite recruiting rankings right now, Auburn is 14th of 14 SEC schools,” Thamel said. “That is not an indictment of Bryan Harsin, that is an indictment of lack of faith in recruits. If you’re a high school coach, it’d be hard in good faith to send a player to Auburn and say, ‘Hey, this is what it’s gonna look like your next five years.’ This should be when his recruiting is really hitting its stride, and instead they are well behind Vanderbilt.”

I see, nothing is Harsin’s fault. Win loss record, recruiting, coach firings, losses to the portal versus the gains, off-season turmoil that you’re practically need photos or videos to prove, absolutely none of this was Harsin’s fault. Even a certain defensive coordinator that left on his own, stating the reason is because he didn’t like the way Harsin treated his players. But BSPN insiders know AU is just a bad place.

It’s a Wonder the majority to vast majority of other AU sports outside of football, (and even football before Harsin arrived) did or are doing so well. Just one season removed from Covid, Auburn football beat the turds, A&M and the future pack 10 champs with a teenage true freshman quarterback. The majority of the remainder of our sports programs are all competing well in the SEC and on a national level! But according to these BSPN insiders, Auburn is just a bad place.

Edited September 16, 2022 by AU-24

[bigbird 60,513]

4 hours ago, AU-24 said:

Even a certain defensive coordinator that left on his own, stating the reason is because he didn’t like the way Harsin treated his players

Not that he was told he was being replaced, huh?

 

Btw, have you seen your certain DC?

Ok State beat Central Michigan last week, 58-44. CenMich QB was 36 of 49 for 424 yards, 4 TD’s, and one pick. That’s a 73% completion rate.

 

That type of stat line sounded very familiar to me. 

[cole256 17,051]

8 hours ago, Mikey said:

Pete Thamel hates Auburn with a deep and unrelenting hate. If he's right this time it will be the first time he's been right about anything concerning AU. Time after time he's ended up with egg on his face and each time he gets madder. Davis is a bammer. While Harsin may or may not last until next season I wouldn't throw pee on these two if they were in a burning car.

Unless he writes something that the majority of fans would like. Then he's remarkably objective

[cole256 17,051]

I said we needed to hire Kirby smart and of course bunch of people on here laughed at me. When it was reported he was going to uga I said this was going to effect more than anything we've seen and it was going to be bad for us, and I was laughed at. Now here we are.

 

We're in a very bad place and unless he can hire some super guru savant we're in trouble. At the state we're at right now the only person that could get the ball moving to get us out is Deion Sanders. But of course he wouldn't be accepted and if he was magically he would be said to be lazy and dumb. 

I think, as sad as this is to say, that we are going to be down until bammer messes up replacing saban.

[NWALA Tiger 3,535]

14 minutes ago, cole256 said:

I said we needed to hire Kirby smart and of course bunch of people on here laughed at me. When it was reported he was going to uga I said this was going to effect more than anything we've seen and it was going to be bad for us, and I was laughed at. Now here we are.

 

We're in a very bad place and unless he can hire some super guru savant we're in trouble. At the state we're at right now the only person that could get the ball moving to get us out is Deion Sanders. But of course he wouldn't be accepted and if he was magically he would be said to be lazy and dumb. 

I think, as sad as this is to say, that we are going to be down until bammer messes up replacing saban.

I would have been ok with hiring Kirby. BUT, no way he would have the same recruiting success at Auburn that he is having at Georgia... At Georgia, he has the advantage of being the main state school.  I think he could have recruited well at AU  but not at the level he is doing now. Which would in turn trickle down to his won loss record if he were at AU

[Gowebb11 9,317]

15 minutes ago, cole256 said:

I said we needed to hire Kirby smart and of course bunch of people on here laughed at me. When it was reported he was going to uga I said this was going to effect more than anything we've seen and it was going to be bad for us, and I was laughed at. Now here we are.

 

We're in a very bad place and unless he can hire some super guru savant we're in trouble. At the state we're at right now the only person that could get the ball moving to get us out is Deion Sanders. But of course he wouldn't be accepted and if he was magically he would be said to be lazy and dumb. 

I think, as sad as this is to say, that we are going to be down until bammer messes up replacing saban.

This is a solid take. I’m still hoping for a good season and for CBH to establish some sustained success for us. But I’m increasingly realizing that is unlikely. If we have to make a move, your are correct that it needs to be a huge splash like Deion. But with our record of decision making its more likely to be a Butch Jones or Rich Rodriguez type.