Note on 2013 pass-offense

[StatTiger 3,188]

For the first time during his collegiate coaching career, Gus Malzahn will have the luxury of a returning starting quarterback. Nick Marshall played well last season, improving as the season progressed. Gus Malzahn and Rhett Lashlee have high expectations for the senior quarterback to be. “He’s more comfortable. He’s more reactive," Malzahn said. "He doesn’t have to think through everything, he just reacts." During spring practice, Nick Marshall picked up from where he left off after the 2013 season. There is a comfort zone in place, which will allow the Auburn coaching staff to build upon the base element established by Marshall last year.

One of the primary focuses on offense during spring practice was improving the pass-offense. Quarterbacks are frequently critiqued on various statistical categories. These categories include pass-rating, completion percentage, yardage and touchdown to interception ratio. Too see where Auburn needs to improve, one must know where the Auburn passing game has been under Nick Marshall. Relying on one or two statistical categories doesn't portray an accurate picture of Auburn's strengths and weaknesses in their pass-offense. With this in mind, here is a more detailed breakdown of Auburn's pass-offense during the 2013 season.

Overall Numbers:

The following is a breakdown of Auburn's 2013 pass-offense, which will include Auburn's national rankings and an assigned letter grade based on their rankings.

National pass-efficiency ranking: No. 24 (B+)

First-down Percentage: No. 70 (D-)

Yard per attempt: No. 18 (A-)

Yard per completion: No. 17 (A-)

TD Ratio: No. 14 (A-)

TD / INT ratio: No. 31 (B-)

Completion Percentage: No. 54 (C-)

Impact-play ratio: No. 29 (B )

Based on Auburn's total passing numbers and their average ranking of No. 32 from the above 8 categories, Auburn finished with a final grade of B minus. The Tigers were strong in yards per attempt and yards per completion. Auburn finished No. 29 nationally in generating explosive plays but could improve in this area. The immediate concern is generating first downs, where Auburn nearly posted a failing grade. The next concern is completion percentage, where Auburn finished No. 54 nationally.

Passing on first down:

Auburn was and will likely remain a run-heavy offense on first down. If the Auburn offense is to improve on 2013, the Tigers must be more efficient throwing the football on first down in 2014. First down is the most optimum down to throw the football and Auburn's needs to take advantage of it.

National pass-efficiency ranking: No. 29 (B-)

First-down percentage: No. 105 (F)

Yards per attempt: No. 35 (C+)

Yards per completion: No. 60 (D)

TD Ratio: No. 19 (A-)

Completion Percentage: No. 30 (B-)

Impact-play ratio: No. 84 (F)

Based on Auburn's passing numbers on first down, the Tigers finished with an average national ranking of 52. This gave them a final grade of C minus. Touchdown ratio and completion percentage were solid but there were major concerns in generating first downs, yards per completion and impact-play ratio. This is a result of a high number of perimeter passes on first down, which normally result in a high completion percentage but a low production level. Auburn must challenge opposing defenses vertically in 2014 to become more explosive on offense.

Passing on third-down:

This is perhaps the most vital passing down primarily because it dictates whether or not the possession will continue forward. This was an area of concern for the 2013 Auburn offense.

National pass-efficiency ranking: No. 13 (A)

Third-down percentage: No. 77 (F)

Touchdown ratio: No. 12 (A)

Completion percentage: No. 64 (D)

Impact ratio: No. 16 (A)

Yards per pass attempt: No. 12 (A)

Yards per completion: No. 6 (A)

Auburn's average rankings in this category was No. 29, giving the Tigers a final grade of B. This average ranking is misleading in terms of actual production. Auburn's failing grade in third-down percentage is the bottom line. Add the low ranking in completion percentage and this becomes a critical area for improvement in 2014. Auburn's success in big plays on third-down inflated the overall numbers. "Consistency" is the theme for 2014.

Red zone pass-offense:

Finishing drives inside the red zone is obviously essential. Though Auburn was No. 13 in touchdown percentage inside the red zone, it could have been higher.

National pass-efficiency ranking: No. 39 (C+)

First down percentage: No. 31 (B-)

Touchdown ratio: No. 48 (C )

TD / INT ratio: No. 65 (D)

Completion percentage: No. 19 (A-)

Auburn's average ranking under this category was No. 40, for a grade of C plus. This category is a concern but not a major one considering Auburn's success running the football inside the red zone. Auburn's TD / INT ratio is misleading because the Tigers will not throw the football often inside the red zone, so they won't have a high number of TD passes inside the red zone. It becomes a major concern, when facing the better defenses in the conference.

First-half passing:

Playing well offensively early on is a major key for success. It allows the team to play downhill, while forcing the opponent to adjust their game plan. From 1981-2013, Auburn has compiled a record of 111-13-0, when scoring at least 10 points during the first period. Having a quarterback beginning the game in rhythm builds confidence for the quarterback as well as the entire offense.

National pass-efficiency ranking: No. 29 (B )

First down percentage: No. 85 (F)

Yards per pass attempt: No. 33 (B-)

Yards per completion: No. 18 (A-)

Touchdown ratio: No. 6 (A)

TD / INT ratio: No. 32 (B-)

Completion percentage: No. 79 (F)

Impact-play ratio: No. 42 (C )

Auburn's average ranking in this category was No. 40, for a grade of C plus. Auburn's failing grade in generating first downs during the first-half along with completion percentage is a major concern. Nick Marshall completed only 55.1 percent of his passes during the first-half and 63.6 percent during the second-half. Though it does show that Marshall improves as the game progresses, it would be more beneficial if Marshall performed well from the outset.

Statistics can be manipulated to forge a conclusion but an in-depth study can form a more definitive picture. The above breakdown shows some of the statistical strengths as well as weaknesses in Auburn's pass-offense. Considering Nick Marshall was a JUCO transfer that did not participate in spring practice (2013), his production this past season was better than expected. He clearly improved as the season progressed, despite facing rigid competition. During his first 120 pass attempts of the season, Marhall threw 4 TD passes along with 4 interceptions. During his final 119 pass attempts, he threw 10 TD passes and only 2 interceptions.

There are more indicators Marshall will improve on his 2013 numbers based on his experience and knowledge of the offense. He is a fierce competitor and leader on the field. He was seldom rattled on the field and consistently bounced back after making a mistake. These are all great qualities in a quarterback, which allows him to obtain the most of the personnel surrounding him. "There’s great quarterbacks in the SEC and the SEC West," said Malzahn, "but this is the first time we’ve had our starter back since I’ve been coaching college and we wouldn’t trade him.”

[RunInRed 16,994]

Very nice write-up Stat!

[WarEagle84 0]

Very nice write-up Stat!

... as usual. We have come to expect nothing less. Thanks for the work.

Stat, you referenced the difference in TD-INT ratio between the first half of the season (at least in number of attempts) and the second half. Do the other numbers show similar improvement over the course of the year? Are there any numbers that were consistently poor that would indicate he needs more work in certain areas?

[aucanucktiger 1,818]

Thanks stat, wonderful stuff and interesting premise to this thread. It'll be interesting for sure to see if this year's likely scenario of spreading carries around more makes for a better offense. IMHO the most key element to this offense (like last year) is not highlighted by stats though. I'm talking about the subjective brilliance of Nick Marshall as the lynch pin in our multi-threat option. Some QBs, otherwise brilliant in their trade, have been coached for years in attempts to make their fakes and option reads on the level Nick Marshall is right now. IMHO he's the best option QB since Jamell Holliway (Ok) in the 1970s. We talk about his running, improved passing, blah, blah, blah, but the biggest thing we'll miss about Nick Marshall after this year will be his judgment in this offense. In that sense, assuming he's only gotten better with his reads, this offense could be better.

[dp4au 2]

thanks Stat.

As you noted Nick improved through the year as he became more familiar with the system. At the same time AU was becoming the most dominant rushing team in the nation. One has to believe that the dominance of the rushing game impacted the passing numbers late in the season if for no other reason the number of attempts. I wonder what some of those numbers would have looked like had we needed more passing to compete, I have to believe that some of those lower numbers (1st down) would have improved.

[StatTiger 3,188]

thanks Stat.

As you noted Nick improved through the year as he became more familiar with the system. At the same time AU was becoming the most dominant rushing team in the nation. One has to believe that the dominance of the rushing game impacted the passing numbers late in the season if for no other reason the number of attempts. I wonder what some of those numbers would have looked like had we needed more passing to compete, I have to believe that some of those lower numbers (1st down) would have improved.

I rarely look at "totals", when making a comparison and did not in this case. The data I posted is based on ratio or percentages to compare frequency rather than totals.

[dp4au 2]

Got you Stat, and I follow your analysis and agree. My point was more a question in my mind. That being with the outstanding running game in 2013 the passing option was not "as needed" as in other years/teams, with Nick's noted improvement for the second half of the season, what might have been?

Your posts are pure fact and the numbers are what they are. In the glass half full world I wonder what might have been had more passing been required.

As always though, thank you for the info, I just take it to strange places.

[StatTiger 3,188]

Got you Stat, and I follow your analysis and agree. My point was more a question in my mind. That being with the outstanding running game in 2013 the passing option was not "as needed" as in other years/teams, with Nick's noted improvement for the second half of the season, what might have been?

Your posts are pure fact and the numbers are what they are. In the glass half full world I wonder what might have been had more passing been required.

As always though, thank you for the info, I just take it to strange places.

gotcha

[McLoofus 35,182]

thanks Stat.

As you noted Nick improved through the year as he became more familiar with the system. At the same time AU was becoming the most dominant rushing team in the nation. One has to believe that the dominance of the rushing game impacted the passing numbers late in the season if for no other reason the number of attempts. I wonder what some of those numbers would have looked like had we needed more passing to compete, I have to believe that some of those lower numbers (1st down) would have improved.

I think we'll find out this season. I'm not sure that we'll "have" to pass any more, but I think we will.

[meh130 1,056]

I do think 2013's passing stats suffered from small sample bias, especially in some games.

Earlier in the season, we suffered from too many dropped passes.

Late in the season, we benefited from good catches and lucky catches.

[auburnatl1 5,727]

The issue last year I felt was if we got in a third an eight, we were in trouble. We struggled to recover from a penalty or negative play. And if you don't have faith in third and long, then you have to get production from first and second down - so we had to run it. Last year was mainly quick throws or second and short-yardage bombs.

We know what defenses will try to do this year with 7-9 in the box and a season to prepare for us.. If we can truly develop an intermediate passing game, especially with 2 top wr's, we will be terrifying. I mean like nobody has seen before terrifying.

[CleCoTiger 1,957]

The issue last year I felt was if we got in a third an eight, we were in trouble.

Statistically, isn't it true that any offense that finds itself in third and eight is in trouble? Conversion rates plummet for third and long. The key is to not make the mistakes/penalties and to cut down on the kind of negative plays that put you in third and long to begin with.

With the same starting QB for the second year for the first time ever under Malzahn at the college level, I think it will be interesting to see how the offense evolves and how its efficiency improves. I do expect fewer miscues and better passing efficiency, and I expect to see fewer third and forever downs as a result.

[StatTiger 3,188]

The issue last year I felt was if we got in a third an eight, we were in trouble.

Statistically, isn't it true that any offense that finds itself in third and eight is in trouble? Conversion rates plummet for third and long. The key is to not make the mistakes/penalties and to cut down on the kind of negative plays that put you in third and long to begin with.

With the same starting QB for the second year for the first time ever under Malzahn at the college level, I think it will be interesting to see how the offense evolves and how its efficiency improves. I do expect fewer miscues and better passing efficiency, and I expect to see fewer third and forever downs as a result.

Last season the national average in converting 3rd & at least 10 was only 24.9% or basically 1 of every 4 attempts, throwing the football. Auburn finished at No. 46 nationally, converting 27.3%. FSU was No. 1 converting 59.3% for the season. Only 23 teams converted at least 33% and only 6 converted more than 40%.

[juscAUse 1]

The issue last year I felt was if we got in a third an eight, we were in trouble.

Statistically, isn't it true that any offense that finds itself in third and eight is in trouble? Conversion rates plummet for third and long. The key is to not make the mistakes/penalties and to cut down on the kind of negative plays that put you in third and long to begin with.

With the same starting QB for the second year for the first time ever under Malzahn at the college level, I think it will be interesting to see how the offense evolves and how its efficiency improves. I do expect fewer miscues and better passing efficiency, and I expect to see fewer third and forever downs as a result.

Last season the national average in converting 3rd & at least 10 was only 24.9% or basically 1 of every 4 attempts, throwing the football. Auburn finished at No. 46 nationally, converting 27.3%. FSU was No. 1 converting 59.3% for the season. Only 23 teams converted at least 33% and only 6 converted more than 40%.

That is the most interesting stat I have seen. Like a 6 foot putt in golf. We assume all PGA pros make a huge percentage of them. But when you see the stats.....

[Stripe 5]

Stat you never cease to amaze me with your analysis. But I have a question that maybe you can answer...or not.

Of all the incomplete passes how many should have been caught? Take in to account that a ball that hits the receiver in the hands/ chest or clearly within reach with a bit of effort could have been caught, should be a completion.

What was Nicks failure and what was the receivers failure? I'm not looking to point Fingers but would like to know what was lack of effort from our receivers, especially early in the season, and what was Nick's struggles/unfamiliarity with the recievers and system.

Thanks Stat.

[AUbritt 611]

The issue last year I felt was if we got in a third an eight, we were in trouble.

Statistically, isn't it true that any offense that finds itself in third and eight is in trouble? Conversion rates plummet for third and long. The key is to not make the mistakes/penalties and to cut down on the kind of negative plays that put you in third and long to begin with.

With the same starting QB for the second year for the first time ever under Malzahn at the college level, I think it will be interesting to see how the offense evolves and how its efficiency improves. I do expect fewer miscues and better passing efficiency, and I expect to see fewer third and forever downs as a result.

Last season the national average in converting 3rd & at least 10 was only 24.9% or basically 1 of every 4 attempts, throwing the football. Auburn finished at No. 46 nationally, converting 27.3%. FSU was No. 1 converting 59.3% for the season. Only 23 teams converted at least 33% and only 6 converted more than 40%.

Nice. So getting above 40% would rock. That seems difficult, but doable. I personally hope Nick takes a page out of JFF's playbook. Extend the play long enough foe someone to come open.