World markets are tanking

[ShocksMyBrain 9,366]

2 hours ago, RunInRed said:

@Elephant Tipper ... I'm a simple guy, I'm not sure what any of your nonsense is ... but my Auburn education tells me:

• The DOW ended at 18,332 on Election Day. 
• On Jan 26, the DOW peaked at 26,616 (26,616-18,332 = 8,284; 8,284 / 18,332 ... up about ~45% from Election Day).
• Monday this current 'correction' bottomed at  at 24,345 ( 24,345-18,332=6,561; 6,013/18,332 = ~+33%). 
  • After this correction, the DOW had given up 27% of gains since election (45%-33%=12%; 12%/45% = 27%).
  • It has since recovered some.

You are entitled to your own "ephermal" opinions but not your own facts.  Based on today's (2/07/18) closing price of 24, 893, the DOW is up ~35% since Election Day.  Carry on.

Predicting ET’s response: 

[Elephant Tipper 430]

16 hours ago, RunInRed said:

@Elephant Tipper ... I'm a simple guy, I'm not sure what any of your nonsense is ... but my Auburn education tells me:

• The DOW ended at 18,332 on Election Day. 
• On Jan 26, the DOW peaked at 26,616 (26,616-18,332 = 8,284; 8,284 / 18,332 ... up about ~45% from Election Day).
• Monday this current 'correction' bottomed at  at 24,345 ( 24,345-18,332=6,561; 6,013/18,332 = ~+33%). 
  • After this correction, the DOW had given up 27% of gains since election (45%-33%=12%; 12%/45% = 27%).
  • It has since recovered some.

You are entitled to your own "ephermal" opinions but not your own facts.  Based on today's (2/07/18) closing price of 24, 893, the DOW is up ~35% since Election Day.  Carry on.

Thank you for pointing out my transcription error.  In haste I used the close from Election Day when I meant and stated, "The day after the election, the DJIA closed at 18,332."  The close on the day after the election was much higher, which only underscores my point and diminishes yours.  The Dow closed at 18,589.  During the overnight trading, which starts at 5:00 p.m. EST, the market was in freefall.  The market was reflecting a possible HRC election.  As CNN stated, " At their low point on Tuesday night, Dow futures were down more than 900 points."  http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/08/investing/global-markets-stocks-trump-clinton-us-presidential-election/index.html    Remember that close of 18,322 ?  The market dropped 900 points from that number to the range I stated above, which was 17,450-17,500.  Again, at around 9:00 p.m. EST, when election results came in for PA, then MI, then WI the freefall stopped.  The market did NOT drop any further, instead, it began climbing DRAMATICALLY, more dramatically than when it fell.  So, by the close of the day after the election, when the world knew that DJT's fiscal policies would be implemented instead of HRC's, the market increased by 1,150 points from the low and by the end of the week closed at 18,847.   FACT, not "nonsense" RIR.

Using your peak of 26,616 and subtracting 17,450 is 9,166 points, NOT 8,284.  9,166/17,450= 52% market value gain in 14 1/2 months.  Using the market close of 24,235- 17450=6,785 in market gain since election night.  6,785/17,450= 39%.  There's a slight difference in my numbers here because I rounded in the above #'s.  It doesn't matter what the market gave up since its high (that was a spike, not a trading range......HUGE difference), the market is still 39% ahead of where it was when it was announced that DJT was about to be elected President.

And, NO, using your close of 24,893 translates to a 42% gain to date, not 35%.  24893-17,450= 7,443.   7,443/17,450= 42%.

The point I've made is that talking heads, and you, are using ephemeral numbers, ie., market spikes (prices that trade a few minutes or hours in the extreme) to make matters appear worse than they are.  They are not.  This is an excellent economic recovery underway.   "World markets are tanking" was because of the possibility of a HRC election, not DJT.

EDIT:  When I say "ephemeral", I'm referring to the momentary pricing extremes used to demonstrate your point, not your argument.  In the real world they're not realistic.

[RunInRed 16,419]

DOW is down another 1,000 today.  Probably just “ephemeral” though.  Carry on.

[alexava 6,973]

I hate Trump.... but i am NOT HAPPY about this! 

[RunInRed 16,419]

Trump is selling snake oil.  You can't move a country forward on tax cuts and unending spending that explodes the deficit ... the growth never trickles down ... we've tried this time and time again ... it never works ... it's a paper house, it will come crashing down (again).

[Elephant Tipper 430]

32 minutes ago, RunInRed said:

DOW is down another 1,000 today.  Probably just “ephemeral” though.  Carry on.

All you libs are always saying that the sky is falling.  LOL

So what are you going to do when the market returns to its all-time high ?  Sell ?

[Elephant Tipper 430]

12 minutes ago, RunInRed said:

Trump is selling snake oil.  You can't move a country forward on tax cuts and unending spending that explodes the deficit ... the growth never trickles down ... we've tried this time and time again ... it never works ... it's a paper house, it will come crashing down (again).

Did Obama's $8+ trillion in debt bother you ?  With his non-growth economy ?

[maxwere 82]

On 2/6/2018 at 3:54 PM, augolf1716 said:

Dear Clients,

 

The current stock market selloff is long overdue and perfectly normal during regular market cycles. The catalyst is fears of a recession due to rising interest rates. There is no sign of a recession now but there will be another recession, eventually.

 

The economy is finally strong enough that the Federal Reserve no longer needs to keep rates artificially low as it did during and after the Great Recession of 2007-2009. The unemployment rate is 4.1%; 81% of 4th quarter 2017 corporate earnings that have reported have exceeded estimates; and 75% of those companies have increased their fiscal year 2018 earnings-per-share projections.

 

Even though the recent market movement has been quick and drastic, selloffs are ordinary, typical, and healthy over the long run. The market will find its footing again and it is important to remember that the macroeconomic fundamentals drive markets over the long run.

 

This is a respectable response from a licensed broker, however it is still sponsored by the letters B & S.  Take one of the simplest measures of fundamental strength (PE).

Current avg S&P PE ratio: 24.10 (it was ~21 in early 2008)

Mean: 15.69 PE

Linear mean reversion puts an S&P market valuation of about 1700 or -33% from here.  If the market were to correct to the mean, it will over-correct (historically, they do).  That could put us at a bottom of -60% or more without stretching the imagination too much (1000-1200).  If you agree that fundamentals drive the long term and are ok with -50% short term loss, then, by all means, allocate 100% to equities!  On the other hand, playing "risk off" is a huge opportunity to beat the market long term.

[maxwere 82]

5 minutes ago, Elephant Tipper said:

All you libs are always saying that the sky is falling.  LOL

So what are you going to do when the market returns to its all-time high ?  Sell ?

Say it with me ET... (this mantra will eventually be your friend).  "Executive/administrative policy has almost nothing to do with the short term behavior of equity markets."  True with Bush, Obama, Trump et al.  You should be talking about Bernanke here. 

[RunInRed 16,419]

11 minutes ago, Elephant Tipper said:

Did Obama's $8+ trillion in debt bother you ?  With his non-growth economy ?

Sure did.  And I said as much.  But as I've previously noted, we were making steady climbs in the right direction to reduce the deficit and we were on the slow ("but not fast enough" ... remember?) path to recovery - by all measures: jobs, wages and gdp, etc.

We've now poured gasoline on the fire - thinking we can have it all - tax cuts, increased military spending, trillion dollar deficits - this isn't a Trump thing.  It's arithmetic.  And the math doesn't add up.  We're heading in the wrong direction.

[RunInRed 16,419]

15 minutes ago, Elephant Tipper said:

All you libs are always saying that the sky is falling.  LOL

So what are you going to do when the market returns to its all-time high ?  Sell ?

No one is rooting against the market.  We're just foreshadowing the boom and bust cycles which are so easy to see coming.

[RunInRed 16,419]

13 minutes ago, maxwere said:

This is a respectable response from a licensed broker, however it is still sponsored by the letters B & S.  Take one of the simplest measures of fundamental strength (PE).

Current avg S&P PE ratio: 24.10 (it was ~21 in early 2008)

Mean: 15.69 PE

Linear mean reversion puts an S&P market valuation of about 1700 or -33% from here.  If the market were to correct to the mean, it will over-correct (historically, they do).  That could put us at a bottom of -60% or more without stretching the imagination too much (1000-1200).  If you agree that fundamentals drive the long term and are ok with -50% short term loss, then, by all means, allocate 100% to equities!  On the other hand, playing "risk off" is a huge opportunity to beat the market long term.

Exactly ... "stay calm and keep your money with me" ...

[Elephant Tipper 430]

1 hour ago, maxwere said:

Say it with me ET... (this mantra will eventually be your friend).  "Executive/administrative policy has almost nothing to do with the short term behavior of equity markets."  True with Bush, Obama, Trump et al.  You should be talking about Bernanke here. 

To believe that some blocks of buyers/sellers don't exercise group think when voting (buying/selling) on short-term policies that benefit/hurt their stocks is dangerous.  Other blocks of buyers/sellers do have a long-term vision and hold. 

From the hour on election night that DJT's election proved certain, the market voted that his election would be favorable, 9,000+ points favorable.  The market tanked when it thought HRC was to be elected.

The market also voted that QE would also be beneficial.

Say it with me maxwere, "Stock holders vote in favor of what they perceive benefits their stock value by buying and against what hurts their stock value by selling., both long-term and short-term investors.  Perception, right or wrong, moves the markets." 

[homersapien 11,381]

5 hours ago, RunInRed said:

Trump is selling snake oil.  You can't move a country forward on tax cuts and unending spending that explodes the deficit ... the growth never trickles down ... we've tried this time and time again ... it never works ... it's a paper house, it will come crashing down (again).

But, but....... 

 Toga Party!!   er...., Military Parade!!

[homersapien 11,381]

4 hours ago, maxwere said:

This is a respectable response from a licensed broker, however it is still sponsored by the letters B & S.  Take one of the simplest measures of fundamental strength (PE).

Current avg S&P PE ratio: 24.10 (it was ~21 in early 2008)

Mean: 15.69 PE

Linear mean reversion puts an S&P market valuation of about 1700 or -33% from here.  If the market were to correct to the mean, it will over-correct (historically, they do).  That could put us at a bottom of -60% or more without stretching the imagination too much (1000-1200).  If you agree that fundamentals drive the long term and are ok with -50% short term loss, then, by all means, allocate 100% to equities!  On the other hand, playing "risk off" is a huge opportunity to beat the market long term.

Rut-Roh!

In the long term, we are all dead.  And for some of us, that 'long term' is much shorter than for others.

[maxwere 82]

12 hours ago, Elephant Tipper said:

To believe that some blocks of buyers/sellers don't exercise group think when voting (buying/selling) on short-term policies that benefit/hurt their stocks is dangerous.  Other blocks of buyers/sellers do have a long-term vision and hold. 

From the hour on election night that DJT's election proved certain, the market voted that his election would be favorable, 9,000+ points favorable.  The market tanked when it thought HRC was to be elected.

The market also voted that QE would also be beneficial.

Say it with me maxwere, "Stock holders vote in favor of what they perceive benefits their stock value by buying and against what hurts their stock value by selling., both long-term and short-term investors.  Perception, right or wrong, moves the markets." 

Capital markets rule the equity voting.  The king of that market, the Fed, bought this market up with the trillions they added to the balance sheet.  None of what you say is noticable on the 4 hr or daily tick.  Markets were closed the night of the election btw.

[RunInRed 16,419]

:Waits for Trump's next stock market tweet:

[AUDub 11,151]

 

[AU64 10,122]

Hard to believe any serious investor is really reacting or responding to the day by day movements of the market or paying the least bit of attention to DT's tweets.  

I love all the explanations in the media which I guess are intended for folks who don't think very much....."market is down because of tariffs".....whoa..."market is up because Chinese say they are willing to talk about trade issues and willing to make some changes"....market is down because of ???.....and next day market is up because of ?????       Anyone foolish enough to be making decisions based on stuff like this deserves to be separated from their hard earned savings...these automatic trading programs are designed to fleece the sheep out there who don't know when they are in over their heads. 

Meanwhile....notice that GE continues to suffer from bad management.....can't find a way to go up even when every other Dow component takes a jump.  How long before it is out of the Dow?  That will be the killer blow because right now, lots of index funds must own GE.....but once it's gone from the Dow, the popularity of the stock with take a hit.

 

 

[TexasTiger 12,915]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/almost-40-market-value-created-trump-rally-gone-175052153.html

[AU64 10,122]

13 hours ago, TexasTiger said:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/almost-40-market-value-created-trump-rally-gone-175052153.html

Was that last week, yesterday or today? .......but as for me, I'm very happy with the 60% that I still have because it's a pretty good sized number.  This was written by a guy for whom a glass 60% full is still not good enough...but Yahoo....so no surprise there. . 

Can't believe anyone wastes their time (unless they get paid to fill space on a blog)  trying to explain the ups and downs of the stock market as if there is some logic behind what is goin on.     The market is like Las Vegas.....the house always likes to have people with a "system" show up.     Surprised he did not blame the big drop in Facebook on DT instead of the duplicity of Zuck. 

 

[homersapien 11,381]

5 hours ago, AU64 said:

Was that last week, yesterday or today? .......but as for me, I'm very happy with the 60% that I still have because it's a pretty good sized number.  This was written by a guy for whom a glass 60% full is still not good enough...but Yahoo....so no surprise there. . 

Can't believe anyone wastes their time (unless they get paid to fill space on a blog)  trying to explain the ups and downs of the stock market as if there is some logic behind what is goin on.     The market is like Las Vegas.....the house always likes to have people with a "system" show up.     Surprised he did not blame the big drop in Facebook on DT instead of the duplicity of Zuck. 

 

 60% from when?  

[AU64 10,122]

10 hours ago, homersapien said:

 60% from when?  

Check the link.....he was referring to the Trump rally which is rather ill-defined anyway.  Just noting that he was emphasizing the negative ...but that is the  Yahoo way of course

[RunInRed 16,419]

On 2/8/2018 at 4:58 PM, RunInRed said:

Trump is selling snake oil.  You can't move a country forward on tax cuts and unending spending that explodes the deficit ... the growth never trickles down ... we've tried this time and time again ... it never works ... it's a paper house, it will come crashing down (again).

Forgot to add trade wars.  Open about ~500 off.  Since the DOW peaked above 26K, it's down more than 10%.  All Trump, Not O!   

 

[NolaAuTiger 3,295]

1 hour ago, RunInRed said:

Forgot to add trade wars.  Open about ~500 off.  Since the DOW peaked above 26K, it's down more than 10%.  All Trump, Not O!   

It dropped a little over 350 points. The market is just concerned about this thing escalating right now. It's not so bad if we have a few tariffs on a few products, but if it escalates worldwide, then theres really a threat to recovery globally.