Gus’ Ceiling

[Zeek 17,013]

Honest question and keep this civil, please. I’m not looking for a bash fest or more Auburn fans at each other’s throats.

Looking forward to the future what do you guys believe is Gus’ ceiling as a coach?

Personally, there is no way I can honestly say that I think he’ll ever win a National Championship much less with an undefeated season. He just doesn’t ever have a team that looks extremely  prepared and especially in postseason games.

For me I honestly don’t think, with the current SEC landscape, that he’ll ever win another SEC title so his ceiling for me is winning the division with at least two losses.

[The Plainsman 948]

I think the ceiling remains high,  but so did it for Richt...

[AidiAU 1,270]

Now, after a 1 pt loss, is probably the best time to pose this question. I expect totally rational, non-emotional responses. 

[doverstutts 1,643]

i doubt he sees anything below a 3 loss season...he is consistently outcoached and sooner or later, the recruiting will fall off....jughead jacobs out to be boiled in oil for screwing up the talks with gary patterson

[jared52 4,358]

Sorry, you aren’t getting rational asking this tonight. Asking it preseason, yeah, but tonight no.

That said, I think Gus will probably have some opportunities talent-wise, but as long as uat is running roughshod through the CFB world, he’s 8-9 wins consistently, with the 10 win once every 4 years.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

Ceiling and standard are two different things.  He nearly won a natty his first year and was a quarter away from the playoffs last year, so you can argue that his ceiling is quite high.

But what do I expect to be his standard?  A bunch of 9-3 type seasons.

[Zeek 17,013]

1 minute ago, Brad_ATX said:

Ceiling and standard are two different things.  He nearly won a natty his first year and was a quarter away from the playoffs last year, so you can argue that his ceiling is quite high.

But what do I expect?  A bunch of 9-3 type seasons.

Well said.

It seems, to me, he is constantly outsmarting himself. Like if he came out and just had fun with it we’d probably play a lot better.

I just don’t know what the issue is.

[DAG 36,569]

He absolutely can get back to the NC with the right personell , other wise 8-9 wins is what I imagine we will see most of the time.

[Shift 368]

9 (or fewer) wins per season, on average

[Auhud08 596]

What did he do/not do in todays game that makes you ask this? He made one call early in the game, and it wasnt a bad decision. The play call sucked but the decision to go for it didnt. He won 10 games last year and beat the national champ and runner-up. In 15/16 he didnt have a good qb. Some of that is on him, some of that is bad luck. Had he had the defense he has now, we probably win a few more games. Last, the one thing ive always given him credit for- even when i wanted him fired-he has us replinished, we arent “reloading”  but weve got some really deep spots now when, after 2012, we were TOTALLY depleted. 

[Zeek 17,013]

3 minutes ago, DAG said:

He absolutely can get back to the NC with the right personell , other wise 8-9 wins is what I imagine we will see most of the time.

Define personell?

Seems like most agree 8-9 with a lucky 10. Isn’t that we mocked Richt for over the years?

So if we know he’s not going to reach the heights we hope for, what then?

Another insanely costly buyout? 

[gr82be 15,274]

My honest feeling is that if Chizik can win a championship then Gus can. For some reason Auburn has very rocky seasons. So far Gus is Rocky 1 and Chizik was Rocky II. I want to see Gus be Rocky IV. Sorry for the analogy but I've been watching Rocky movies the past few days. Seems fitting. 

 

[Eagle-1 3,821]

5 minutes ago, Zeek said:

Honest question and keep this civil, please. I’m not looking for a bash fest or more Auburn fans at each other’s throats.

Looking forward to the future what do you guys believe is Gus’ ceiling as a coach?

Personally, there is no way I can honestly say that I think he’ll ever win a National Championship much less with an undefeated season. He just doesn’t ever have a team that looks extremely  prepared and especially in postseason games.

For me I honestly don’t think, with the current SEC landscape, that he’ll ever win another SEC title so his ceiling for me is winning the division with at least two losses.

Not unless the reincarnation of Cam Newton shows up.

Seriously, I have been off the Gus bus for three seasons now. However, he seems to run a clean program, and has recruited fairly well. He has capable hands in charge of the defense, but must make some changes on offense. Lindsey isn't the answer. He needs a O coordinator who can Institute an offense that is capable of passing the football, and can take advantage of the talent we seem to be able to recruit at the skill positions.

If he doesn't he will last only until his buyout gets low enough to allow us to send him packing.

[WeagleAU 594]

17 minutes ago, Zeek said:

Honest question and keep this civil, please. I’m not looking for a bash fest or more Auburn fans at each other’s throats.

Looking forward to the future what do you guys believe is Gus’ ceiling as a coach?

Personally, there is no way I can honestly say that I think he’ll ever win a National Championship much less with an undefeated season. He just doesn’t ever have a team that looks extremely  prepared and especially in postseason games.

For me I honestly don’t think, with the current SEC landscape, that he’ll ever win another SEC title so his ceiling for me is winning the division with at least two losses.

I used to be optimistic about Gus, especially after his first season as head coach in 2013.  Many said that season was just a fluke, but I was one of those who thought Gus was going to be the consistency that Auburn needed at the HC position to take them to the next level.  Now, like many, I've lost faith in Gus after 5 seasons plus.  Since the 2013 season Gus is: 

2014    8-5

2015    7-6

2016    8-5

2017    10-4

Even though Gus had a 10 win season last year, he totally imploded in the SEC championship and bowl game.  And unbelievably, Auburn gave him a multimillion dollar extension.  Also to note since 2013 Gus against his biggest rivals:

LSU  2-3  (0-2 against Orgeron)

Georgia 1-3

The Turds  1-3

Top 25 opponents  10-15

He doesn't have a winning record against any of them.  What could be even worst?  Since 2013, Gus is 1-4 in post season.  The only win coming in the lowly Birmingham Bowl.  Despite having really good recruiting years, Auburn continues to under perform.  I think he has already reached his ceiling.  Realistically, I don't see Auburn ever winning a National Championship with Gus as HC.... a bowl win would be nice though

[doverstutts 1,643]

Just now, Zeek said:

Another insanely costly buyout? 

no...we are stuck with him....let him play out his contract, lose 3-6 games a year and then i'll probably be dead and won't have watch this crap any more, year after year

[murpjf88 520]

2014 BCS National Championship was his ceiling and it's been a steady downhill ever since.  There's only so many times you can pull out the same gimmicks before the rest of college football figures you out.

[DAG 36,569]

10 minutes ago, Zeek said:

Define personell?

Seems like most agree 8-9 with a lucky 10. Isn’t that we mocked Richt for over the years?

So if we know he’s not going to reach the heights we hope for, what then?

Another insanely costly buyout? 

He needs a QB who can improvise  to get to that next level. When we play quality teams and they stop the running game, we going into a stalemate. Gus is at his best when he has a qb who can run the QB read effectively and make adequate passes. It takes pressure off the RBs in this offense. Also keeps us out of third and long. We tend to have those at a high percentage with the JS and SWs of this offense.

[Zeek 17,013]

Just now, Auhud08 said:

What did he do/not do in todays game that makes you ask this? He made one call early in the game, and it wasnt a bad decision. The play call sucked but the decision to go for it didnt. He won 10 games last year and beat the national champ and runner-up. In 15/16 he didnt have a good qb. Some of that is on him, some of that is bad luck. Had he had the defense he has now, we probably win a few more games. Last, the one thing ive always given him credit for- even when i wanted him fired-he has us replinished, we arent “reloading”  but weve got some really deep spots now when, after 2012, we were TOTALLY depleted. 

Not being combative just making sure I’m addressing everything you said. Lists help me with that.

1. Nothing specifically in this game, it’s cumulative issues that all reflect on the person at the top.

2. He also lost a game to Georgia we had no business losing. Lost to UCF that barely sniffs 3* athletes and the 10 wins amounted to nothing of substance. No hardware to show for it.

3. Quarterback situations are almost completely on him. Our inability to develop a high school quarterback is painful.

4. I guess this gets down to my biggest issue with Gus. After years of inept defenses we finally have a stud D again and now we can’t remember how to offense. Gus’ greatest strength is supposed to be an offensive mastermind.

Recruiting and roster management has very much improved, agreed. But while it’s good it’s not excellent.

I will say this. There aren’t many coaches I believe could meet the expectations that I believe we have. Despite struggles he’s having at Nebraska, I think he’s the best “up and comer” the only “proven” coaches that would come close to our goals is really only Dabo. Urban is overrated, Smart is doing well but still has a small sample size and he couldn’t get away with his Bama recruiting here.

[doug3020 842]

Unless he has a 6-6 245lb qb that runs a sub 4.6 40? 8-4/9-3 with the 10 win season once every 4 yrs (Senior loaded teams, specifically OL). 

IMO, Gus’s teams basically out talent other teams in his victories. Equal talent it becomes coaching. Last yr I had a post on this site comparing Gus’s records against teams w winning records at yrs end to teams w losing records at yrs end. It really opened my eyes. Of course he goes 2-1 against UGA/turds at yrs end and we HAD to give him an extension. I wish we hadn’t, but in defense of JJ he had no choice. Lose Gus to Arky and nationally we instantly become idiots for letting him go (he’s beaten NS twice, face it that’s the standard). However, I don’t see a NC or SEC Championship in his future. I’m also not a fortune teller. I hope I’m wrong. 

[gr82b4au 5,583]

He had us in the Nc game his first year. We also were 3 quarters away from the playoffs last year. 

I am not happy either and I lost all confidence in Gus last year in the Clemson game, but at least he has us with a chance in November at times.  Better than other programs I guess. 

 

 

 

[AUwent 3,980]

Just now, doug3020 said:

Unless he has a 6-6 245lb qb that runs a sub 4.6 40? 8-4/9-3 with the 10 win season once every 4 yrs (Senior loaded teams, specifically OL). 

IMO, Gus’s teams basically out talent other teams in his victories. Equal talent it becomes coaching. Last yr I had a post on this site comparing Gus’s records against teams w winning records at yrs end to teams w losing records at yrs end. It really opened my eyes. Of course he goes 2-1 against UGA/turds at yrs end and we HAD to give him an extension. I wish we hadn’t, but in defense of JJ he had no choice. Lose Gus to Arky and nationally we instantly become idiots for letting him go (he’s beaten NS twice, face it that’s the standard). However, I don’t see a NC or SEC Championship in his future. I’m also not a fortune teller. I hope I’m wrong. 

The one positive is that Greene WASN'T responsible for that buyout.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

13 minutes ago, gr82be said:

My honest feeling is that if Chizik can win a championship then Gus can. For some reason Auburn has very rocky seasons. So far Gus is Rocky 1 and Chizik was Rocky II. I want to see Gus be Rocky IV. Sorry for the analogy but I've been watching Rocky movies the past few days. Seems fitting. 

 

Well Rocky III may be more apropos.  Get your butt kicked early in the film, rehab your entire image, train hard, only to come back and win the whole thing.

[murpjf88 520]

12 minutes ago, WeagleAU said:

I used to be optimistic about Gus, especially after his first season as head coach in 2013.  Many said that season was just a fluke, but I was one of those who thought Gus was going to be the consistency that Auburn needed at the HC position to take them to the next level.  Now, like many, I've lost faith in Gus after 5 seasons plus.  Since the 2013 season Gus is: 

2014    8-5

2015    7-6

2016    8-5

2017    10-4

Even though Gus had a 10 win season last year, he totally imploded in the SEC championship and bowl game.  And unbelievably, Auburn gave him a multimillion dollar extension.  Also to note since 2013 Gus against his biggest rivals:

LSU  2-3  (0-2 against Orgeron)

Georgia 1-3

The Turds  1-3

Top 25 opponents  10-15

He doesn't have a winning record against any of them.  What could be even worst?  Since 2013, Gus is 1-4 in post season.  The only win coming in the lowly Birmingham Bowl.  Despite having really good recruiting years, Auburn continues to under perform.  I think he has already reached his ceiling.  Realistically, I don't see Auburn ever winning a National Championship with Gus as HC.... a bowl win would be nice though

He's got Memphis.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

3 minutes ago, gr82b4au said:

He had us in the Nc game his first year. We also were 3 quarters away from the playoffs last year. 

More like one.  The SECC was a one score game heading to the 4th.  It was still very winnable.

[Eagle-1 3,821]

3 minutes ago, DAG said:

He needs a QB who can improvise  to get to that next level. When we play quality teams and they stop the running game, we going into a stalemate. Gus is at his best. That’s why a QB who can run the QB read effectively and make adequate passes is a priority . Takes pressure off the RBs in this offense. Also keeps us out of third and long. We tend to have those at a high percentage with the JS and SWs of this offense.

All true if we are going to continue to run some form of Gus ball. What makes me nuts is he can't seem to decide what type of quarterback to recruit. We run the entire gambit. One year it's a pocket passer, the next we sign some guy from last chance U because he can run, but couldn't throw the ball into a barn with out a door.