97% of Signees Have Enrolled Under Gus

[ellitor 33,111]

2 minutes ago, LKEEL75 said:

I can't find your results for 2015, E?  Not complaining.  Thanks for doing all this leg work!!  Just wondering how those numbers looked compared to 14 & 16

Haven't done them yet. Like I said. Takes me time. You should be thanking McLoofus for convincing me to take the time to do it.

[McLoofus 35,182]

40 minutes ago, ellitor said:

Haven't done them yet. Like I said. Takes me time. You should be thanking McLoofus for convincing me to take the time to do it.

Hahaha, did I inadvertently issue a challenge? Man, I really need to rethink my whole way of doing... everything. 

[ellitor 33,111]

20 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

Hahaha, did I inadvertently issue a challenge? Man, I really need to rethink my whole way of doing... everything. 

No challenge. I just didn't want to put in the work but you shamed me into it. lol

[auskip07 930]

Ive been tracking players since 2010 in my notebook. During Gus's time we have approx  9 - 13  "misses"   per recruiting class.     ones that never make the field, transfer, get booted or DNQ.  Scholarship players only. 

2013  *9

2014   *13

2015   *9 

2016   *11 (so far) 

 

 

[McLoofus 35,182]

39 minutes ago, auskip07 said:

Ive been tracking players since 2010 in my notebook. During Gus's time we have approx  9 - 13  "misses"   per recruiting class.     ones that never make the field, transfer, get booted or DNQ.  Scholarship players only. 

2013  *9

2014   *13

2015   *9 

2016   *11 (so far) 

Gonna do some super duper noob math here, but that seems sustainable.

~4 classes (+ redshirt upperclassmen, - 3rd-year guys who declare) x ~25 guys = *100 scholarship players

- ~55 contributors (2-deep at 22 O and D positions plus a randomly-arrived-at 11 ST positions) = 45 non-contributors

/ 4 classes = ~11 guys a year you can expect not to contribute

 

*The washout rate ensures that 100 scholarships turns into <= 85 guys actually on scholarship at any given time, of course. 

[Mikey 16,653]

59 minutes ago, auskip07 said:

Ive been tracking players since 2010 in my notebook. During Gus's time we have approx  9 - 13  "misses"   per recruiting class.     ones that never make the field, transfer, get booted or DNQ.  Scholarship players only. 

2013  *9

2014   *13

2015   *9 

2016   *11 (so far) 

 

 

We go at it in a different way, but I've been counting attrition, not by class but by calendar year, for decades now. Somewhere between 7 and 11 per year has been normal attrition. More can be expected in years of a coaching change. On the occasions when I've looked at some other school their numbers were equivalent.

Obviously, the new transfer rules and the installation of the transfer portal should create a significant rise in the number of players deciding to leave a  program and head elsewhere.

[augolf1716 21,235]

[LKEEL75 2,566]

11 minutes ago, Mikey said:

1 hour ago, auskip07 said:

Ive been tracking players since 2010 in my notebook. During Gus's time we have approx  9 - 13  "misses"   per recruiting class.     ones that never make the field, transfer, get booted or DNQ.  Scholarship players only. 

2013  *9

2014   *13

2015   *9 

2016   *11 (so far) 

 

 

We go at it in a different way, but I've been counting attrition, not by class but by calendar year, for decades now. Somewhere between 7 and 11 per year has been normal attrition. More can be expected in years of a coaching change. On the occasions when I've looked at some other school their numbers were equivalent.

Obviously, the new transfer rules and the installation of the transfer portal should create a significant rise in the number of players deciding to leave a  program and head elsewhere.

I appreciate the information, but it would be really nice to know how this relates to other P5 schools.  7-11 may seem high, but maybe it is average for P5.  😕 

[auskip07 930]

34 minutes ago, LKEEL75 said:

I appreciate the information, but it would be really nice to know how this relates to other P5 schools.  7-11 may seem high, but maybe it is average for P5.  😕 

I looked at a few years  from Alabama  back in 2015 and they had similar numbers maybe a little less.    If you would like to take that on i would be interested in hearing those numbers.  

[LKEEL75 2,566]

3 minutes ago, auskip07 said:

I looked at a few years  from Alabama  back in 2015 and they had similar numbers maybe a little less.    If you would like to take that on i would be interested in hearing those numbers.  

meh... I will defer to those who are much better about knowing where to look for this

[ellitor 33,111]

2015 27 Enrollies

17 completed college career at AU, current SRs, or turned pro

Javarius Davis
Ryan Davis
Michael Horton
Darius Slayton
Tega
Carlton
Jeff Holland
Jeremiah Dinson
Maurice Swain
Chandler Cox
Darrell Williams
Kaleb Kim
Marquel Harrell
Bailey Sharp
Kerryon
Monty Atkinson
Jason Smith

10 did not finish at AU

Cowart
Tim Irvin
Ian Shannon
Jauntavius Johnson
Richard McBryde
Jalen Harris
Tyler Carr
Jovon Robinson
Tyler Queen
Jordan Colbert

63% of enrollies finished career at AU or is still there.

@auskip07 Who do you have finished at AU that I have DNF?

[Mikey 16,653]

14 hours ago, LKEEL75 said:

I appreciate the information, but it would be really nice to know how this relates to other P5 schools.  7-11 may seem high, but maybe it is average for P5.  😕 

I posted this above: " On the occasions when I've looked at some other school their numbers were equivalent." No real difference between them and Auburn and I've looked at several over the years. All were P-5 schools.

[aujeff11 6,243]

7 hours ago, Mikey said:

I posted this above: " On the occasions when I've looked at some other school their numbers were equivalent." No real difference between them and Auburn and I've looked at several over the years. All were P-5 schools.

I think it’s important to remember that an overwhelming majority of players that voluntarily leave don’t achieve their goals at their next stop as well. And among the ones that did, there were players such as JF3 that were forced to change their position elsewhere, a transition that was met with resistances while at Auburn.

[WarDamnEagleWDE 12,737]

On 7/22/2019 at 9:05 AM, ellitor said:

For comparison I'm not sure Tubbs was even at a 77% clip.

Things are very different now. You use to be able to take a chance on a very very borderline kid back then. Now you can't because you lose that scholly. Don't get me wrong, Gus and his staff are doing a great job, but now Gus has people looking hard into kids he is recruiting and getting these kids the help they need to qualify. (A plan set in place by AU people for academics, tutors ect..... that some of these high schools don't have the resources for) 

[McLoofus 35,182]

9 minutes ago, WarDamnEagleWDE said:

Things are very different now. You use to be able to take a chance on a very very borderline kid back then. Now you can't because you lose that scholly. Don't get me wrong, Gus and his staff are doing a great job, but now Gus has people looking hard into kids he is recruiting and getting these kids the help they need to qualify. (A plan set in place by AU people for academics, tutors ect..... that some of these high schools don't have the resources for) 

Nice.

[aubiefifty 16,828]

On 7/23/2019 at 9:27 AM, McLoofus said:

Hahaha, did I inadvertently issue a challenge? Man, I really need to rethink my whole way of doing... everything. 

shake it off man! you are the mighty loof........the womens pet, the mens threat, and punks pin up boy. you are an au fam giant and a legend among the big boys. they say the mods throw roses along your pathway. also i need a nice free steak dinner...............lol

[McLoofus 35,182]

3 minutes ago, aubiefifty said:

shake it off man! you are the mighty loof........the womens pet, the mens threat, and punks pin up boy. you are an au fam giant and a legend among the big boys. they say the mods throw roses along your pathway. also i need a nice free steak dinner...............lol

This dump really needs to raise its standards. 

 

[ellitor 33,111]

1 hour ago, WarDamnEagleWDE said:

Things are very different now

I know.

1 hour ago, WarDamnEagleWDE said:

Now you can't because you lose that scholly.

Not true. When a signee does not enroll then you lose that signee spot but not the scholly or enrollee spot. Most people don't realize this or even care to but the NCAA has 2 separate 25 limits each year. 1 for signees & 1 for enrollees. The enrollee limit is the more important number. When a signee does not enroll then you can give the enrollee spot the signee had reserved to a different enrollee. Recruits or transfers don't have to sign an NLI to enroll at a school.

[WarDamnEagleWDE 12,737]

21 minutes ago, ellitor said:

I know.

Not true. When a signee does not enroll then you lose that signee spot but not the scholly or enrollee spot. Most people don't realize this or even care to but the NCAA has 2 separate 25 limits each year. 1 for signees & 1 for enrollees. The enrollee limit is the more important number. When a signee does not enroll then you can give the enrollee spot the signee had reserved to a different enrollee. Recruits don't have to sign an NLI to enroll at a school.

You lose that spot for the year is what I meant to say. You are correct. Not good when you can only sign 25.

[ellitor 33,111]

2 minutes ago, WarDamnEagleWDE said:

You lose that spot for the year is what I meant to say. You are correct. Not good when you can only sign 25.

That signee spot. The major thing that makes the landscape much different than in Tubbs era is there was no signee limitations. The change that has evolved to now a 25 signee limit was Nutt-head famously signing 37 at Ole Miss. He would enroll the 25 he wanted most & the other 12 had to either go to prep school, juco, or sit out a year because NLIs are binding the recruit to the school for 1 year.

[auburn4ever 1,266]

Now if only Gus knew how to coach up at least 97% of his players and get the best out of them on game day.

[augolf1716 21,235]

1 hour ago, auburn4ever said:

Now if only Gus knew how to coach up at least 97% of his players and get the best out of them on game day.

[auskip07 930]

On 7/24/2019 at 7:31 PM, ellitor said:

2015 27 Enrollies

17 completed college career at AU or current SRs

Javarius Davis
Ryan Davis
Michael Horton
Darius Slayton
Tega
Carlton
Jeff Holland
Jeremiah Dinson
Maurice Swain
Chandler Cox
Darrell Williams
Kaleb Kim
Marquel Harrell
Bailey Sharp
Kerryon
Monty Atkinson
Jason Smith

10 did not finish at AU

Cowart
Tim Irvin
Ian Shannon
Jauntavius Johnson
Richard McBryde
Jalen Harris
Tyler Carr
Jovon Robinson
Tyler Queen
Jordan Colbert

63% of enrollies finished career at AU or is still there.

@auskip07 Who do you have finished at AU that I have DNF?

Ill get that for you in the morning.  My notebook stays at my desk since thats where i listen to NSD to start the recruiting class.   But you may be more on top of it than i am.  If i hear someone bails or leaves etc  i just mark it in my book.   I usually do a more through count after 5 years.  

[AU64 10,122]

63% finished at AU.....   and how many of those who did not finish at AU did finish elsewhere?   

AU graduation rate for freshmen in 4 years is less than 50%....

Just thinking that football players probably graduate pretty much at the same rate as non-athletes...and maybe better?  

Auburn Freshmen Retention Rate Rankings

Nationwide Ranking (226 out of 2,123)

worse

better

Alabama Ranking (1 out of 33)

worse

better

[ellitor 33,111]

15 minutes ago, AU64 said:

63% finished at AU.....   and how many of those who did not finish at AU did finish elsewhere?   

AU graduation rate for freshmen in 4 years is less than 50%....

Not worried about those stats as it pertains to football. The hope & expectation is to retain 65-70% of each football enrolled class. Around 50% or less then you are hurting the depth & development of the team.