97% of Signees Have Enrolled Under Gus

[AU64 10,122]

3 minutes ago, ellitor said:

Not worried about those stats as it pertains to football. The hope & expectation is to retain 65-70% of each football enrolled class. Around 50% or less then you are hurting the depth & development of the team.

. But retain for how long?   Guys are taking off with only a year plus of actual serious experience ….meaning they are leaving about the time they could truly be helping the team. and instead end up as UFAs skipping from team to team hoping to catch on.   Can't blame the coaches for that except that some of the guys show up here already making plans for the NFL before they attend the first class at AU.   And, some have socialization issues perhaps which we overlook when signing them.   

I can accept your view,  but I would like to see us recruit players with the ability and desire to stay in school and graduate in a reasonable period of time rather than jump the first time some agent waves money in their face or they don't get enough playing time their freshman year.      Most of our guys will not play professional football when their eligibility is over and it would be nice if they could leave AU with a degree that would help them be successful in some other career

[ellitor 33,111]

29 minutes ago, AU64 said:

. But retain for how long?   Guys are taking off with only a year plus of actual serious experience ….meaning they are leaving about the time they could truly be helping the team. and instead end up as UFAs skipping from team to team hoping to catch on.   Can't blame the coaches for that except that some of the guys show up here already making plans for the NFL before they attend the first class at AU.   And, some have socialization issues perhaps which we overlook when signing them.   

I can accept your view,  but I would like to see us recruit players with the ability and desire to stay in school and graduate in a reasonable period of time rather than jump the first time some agent waves money in their face or they don't get enough playing time their freshman year.      Most of our guys will not play professional football when their eligibility is over and it would be nice if they could leave AU with a degree that would help them be successful in some other career

My stance remains as it was stated in the 2014 enrollee breakdown post, which is if players leave early to go pro (whether they get drafted or not) I consider that finishing a college playing career because players going pro is a great recruiting tool, especially if the players succeed.

[Mikey 16,653]

1 hour ago, ellitor said:

My stance remains as it was stated in the 2014 enrollee breakdown post, which is if players leave early to go pro (whether they get drafted or not) I consider that finishing a college playing career because players going pro is a great recruiting tool, especially if the players succeed.

You may consider it a positive thing, but in no way is it finishing a college playing career. It's leaving a college playing career to do something else.

[ellitor 33,111]

2 hours ago, Mikey said:

You may consider it a positive thing, but in no way is it finishing a college playing career. It's leaving a college playing career to do something else.

You're right. I should have labeled the category as completed college career at AU or turned pro since I see it as a positive.

[McLoofus 35,182]

5 hours ago, ellitor said:

You're right. I should have labeled the category as completed college career at AU or turned pro since I see it as a positive.

No, you shouldn't have done anything differently. There is no diploma for sports. If you get drafted early, then you graduated from football early. 

[gr82be 14,443]

11 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

No, you shouldn't have done anything differently. There is no diploma for sports. If you get drafted early, then you graduated from football early. 

And some players graduate before their eligibility is up. If they were there for the degree and not the dream then they have completed their college career too regardless of eligibility remaining. 

[McLoofus 35,182]

7 minutes ago, gr82be said:

And some players graduate before their eligibility is up. If they were there for the degree and not the dream then they have completed their college career too regardless of eligibility remaining. 

Exactly.

In reality, blue chip athletes major in whatever sport they play. And, like normal college students, some graduate early, some graduate on a normal schedule, and some change majors. 

The get off my lawn crowd is just taking advantage of E's intense respect for properly picked nits. 

[ellitor 33,111]

8 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

The get off my lawn crowd is just taking advantage of E's intense respect for properly picked nits. 

  I just didn’t know how else to say it was a positive. I should’ve just waited and let you guys reply for me. LOL just like an advanced student in the classroom an advanced player on the field can complete whatever college football time he deems necessary earlier than the average football player. 

[McLoofus 35,182]

1 minute ago, ellitor said:

  I just didn’t know how else to say it was a positive. I should’ve just waited and let you guys reply for me. LOL just like an advanced student in the classroom an advanced player on the field can complete whatever college football time he deems necessary earlier than the average football player. 

Yes sir, I agree completely!

[oracle79 3,569]

I didn't see a total for the years @ellitor did the calculations on, so I did it to see for myself.  From 2013 to 2016 we enrolled 95 players. 46 finished or are still with the team and 49 have moved on.  That's a retention rate of 48.4%.  Double check me if you want, but that is pretty bad I would think.

[ellitor 33,111]

26 minutes ago, oracle79 said:

From 2013 to 2016 we enrolled 95 players. 46 finished or are still with the team and 49 have moved on.  That's a retention rate of 48.4%.  Double check me if you want, but that is pretty bad I would think.

If you are using my posts as your reference it's 53 of 95. 56%. Still would like it about 10% better.

[oracle79 3,569]

Thanks @ellitor. You're right: I transposed the 2015 numbers for retained and left.  So adding 7 to my 46 gives your 53...doh!

[doc4aday 1,887]

On 7/22/2019 at 4:07 PM, ellitor said:

Sounds like a new Italian restaurant.

reminds me of Haggis in the good old UK!

[WarEagle1983 2,185]

On 7/22/2019 at 7:27 AM, abw0004 said:

Very impressive indeed.  That coupled with a clean program.  I believe the last person to get in trouble was Stephen Roberts getting arrested for possession of a firearm in 2017 (knock on wood).

This is what i really appreciate about Gus. He deserves a lot of credit for having a football program where we do have to worry about guys getting arressted(ThugUGA). We have a lot of high character young men on the team. Also, many of our players graduate early as well.  

[keesler 5,926]

8 hours ago, WarEagle1983 said:

This is what i really appreciate about Gus. He deserves a lot of credit for having a football program where we do have to worry about guys getting arressted(ThugUGA). We have a lot of high character young men on the team. Also, many of our players graduate early as well.  

This is a major reason why it will be really hard for the AD to fire him and pay that astronomical buyout.  He is a fine man with high character, he runs a clean program that stays out of the NCAA spotlight.  He graduates his players, keeps them academically eligible and his guys stay out of trouble and out of the headlines.  Gus and his staff will never embarrass Auburn off the field.

[Cardin Drake 1,848]

1 hour ago, keesler said:

This is a major reason why it will be really hard for the AD to fire him and pay that astronomical buyout.  He is a fine man with high character, he runs a clean program that stays out of the NCAA spotlight.  He graduates his players, keeps them academically eligible and his guys stay out of trouble and out of the headlines.  Gus and his staff will never embarrass Auburn off the field.

Football coaches always get fired when they lose the support of their fan base.  When that happens, a certain odor lingers over the program that damages recruiting, and a death spiral isn't far away, and you have no choice but to move on.   Running the type of program Gus does buys you some goodwill with the fans, but it is limited. You have to perform on the field. Fans can have unrealistic expectations, but it doesn't matter.  You have very little room for error in the SEC west. We went from 0-8 to a national championship, mostly by adding Cam Newton.  Let's hope the magic strikes again with JG or Nix.  But in addition to being very good,  you also have to have a bit of luck. We need a good season for sure. I think the ingredients are in place.  I'm rooting for Gus for all the reasons you listed, and I also think this is the best extended period of good recruiting that we have had. I like the staff. And if Gus leaves,  I fully realize that the odds of actually hiring the next Dabo Swinney are slim.  More frequently you wind up taking a 10 or 15 year walk in the wilderness while you look for "the next Dabo Swinney"  Ask Tennessee or Nebraska fans about that   I'm really hoping for a great season that will let us take the next step. But if our QB is only average or below average, or we have injuries in the O-line,  well, that's about all it will take to lose to a slew of teams, and I don't think Gus can maintain support through another controversial year. It's a tough job, and that's why coaches get paid the big bucks.  I'm glad Gus decided to call the plays this year. I think he figures if he goes down, he may as well go down swinging, and I admire him for that too.

[McLoofus 35,182]

34 minutes ago, Cardin Drake said:

Ask Tennessee or Nebraska fans about that 

Eh. Ask bama, uga, Florida, LSU, Ohio State, FSU...

I don't disagree with your overall point, but I do disagree with your suggested chances of a 10-15 year walk in the wilderness at Auburn. We're a major program in the best conference and most talent-rich area in the country. We are a program where each of the last 5 coaches have had an undefeated and/or a national championship-caliber season. . Each of the last 2 coaches appeared in a national title game and have recruited on par with the best in the country (Mark Emmert Mafia notwithstanding). We lose everything in the trenches after this year but the rest of the roster is dominated by extremely talented youth, to include as good a succession plan at QB as any Auburn fan could ever hope for. The football program is squeaky clean, we have a new, savvy AD, and the commitment is there to upgrade our facilities. 

If our HC job is vacant at/by the end of this season, we will easily be the most attractive job in the country. More than that, we are well positioned for the next coach to be very successful once he restocks the offensive and defensive lines. 

I know it's tempting to find irony in talk of firing the guy who is responsible for so much of the positive in our current status, but all of that positive is unfortunately what makes the ways in which we've gone about losing 5 games a year so unforgivable. 

[toddc 13,194]

Man I hate to agree with Loof, but gotta give in here.

[Cardin Drake 1,848]

43 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

Eh. Ask bama, uga, Florida, LSU, Ohio State, FSU...

I don't disagree with your overall point, but I do disagree with your suggested chances of a 10-15 year walk in the wilderness at Auburn. We're a major program in the best conference and most talent-rich area in the country. We are a program where each of the last 5 coaches have had an undefeated and/or a national championship-caliber season. . Each of the last 2 coaches appeared in a national title game and have recruited on par with the best in the country (Mark Emmert Mafia notwithstanding). We lose everything in the trenches after this year but the rest of the roster is dominated by extremely talented youth, to include as good a succession plan at QB as any Auburn fan could ever hope for. The football program is squeaky clean, we have a new, savvy AD, and the commitment is there to upgrade our facilities. 

If our HC job is vacant at/by the end of this season, we will easily be the most attractive job in the country. More than that, we are well positioned for the next coach to be very successful once he restocks the offensive and defensive lines. 

I know it's tempting to find irony in talk of firing the guy who is responsible for so much of the positive in our current status, but all of that positive is unfortunately what makes the ways in which we've gone about losing 5 games a year so unforgivable. 

Of course Auburn will be an attractive job. That doesn't ensure we will make a good hire.  Before Saban, from 1997 to 2006,  Mike Dubose, Dennis Franchionne, and Mike Shula combined for a 31-41 conference record, and last I heard, Alabama's a pretty decent football school.   Florida has never been the same since Spurrier left. Anybody heard much from Michigan or USC lately? Charlie Strong at Texas ring a bell?  Transitions just don't always go well.  We agree that Malzhan needs to get it done this year on the field.  It's just that there is only a small number of actual coaches that I would trade him for right now. And since Saban is one,  it would probably cost me my soul.  That unknown awesome assistant somewhere that will beat LSU, Georgia, and Alabama every year, and then again in the conference title game is mostly a fantasy.  All that said, we need a great season. This year.

[McLoofus 35,182]

55 minutes ago, Cardin Drake said:

Of course Auburn will be an attractive job. That doesn't ensure we will make a good hire.  Before Saban, from 1997 to 2006,  Mike Dubose, Dennis Franchionne, and Mike Shula combined for a 31-41 conference record, and last I heard, Alabama's a pretty decent football school.   Florida has never been the same since Spurrier left. Anybody heard much from Michigan or USC lately? Charlie Strong at Texas ring a bell?  Transitions just don't always go well.  We agree that Malzhan needs to get it done this year on the field.  It's just that there is only a small number of actual coaches that I would trade him for right now. And since Saban is one,  it would probably cost me my soul.  That unknown awesome assistant somewhere that will beat LSU, Georgia, and Alabama every year, and then again in the conference title game is mostly a fantasy.  All that said, we need a great season. This year.

bama: Didn't fire Stallings. Dealt with major sanctions. Had 3 10-win seasons in those 10 years. Still didn't settle for any of those coaches and ended up with the GOAT.

Florida: What?!?! They've won 2 national championships since Spurrier, who also left on his own and wasn't fired. They had a 3 year break between Spurrier and the next guy to win a national title, and who doubled Spurrier's number of titles in half the time. 5 years after Meyer left, Mullen beat Michigan 41-15 in their bowl game in year 1 and has them ranked in the top 10 going into year 2. 

Those 2 schools are exactly why you shouldn't settle. 

Only 4 years since Mack Brown left Texas. Jury very much still out on Herman. But again, Charlie Strong is the whole point. They didn't sit around waiting on the wrong guy to become the right guy.

Pete Carroll left USC in bad shape and they've been a mess since. Again, though, they're at least trying to get the right guy.

 

"Transitions just don't always go well" is a lot different than what you said before and nobody would argue with the updated version. It's not a reason to keep the wrong guy. It's not a reason to keep a coach who repeatedly loses games in the most inexplicable, unforgivable ways imaginable. It's not a reason to keep a coach who insists on lording over the offense and then puking out 117 yards of total offense against Clemson or numerous single-digit scores over 5 years. 

If he gets it right, he gets it right. But "possibly bad" is better than "definitely bad". 

[keesler 5,926]

1 hour ago, Cardin Drake said:

Of course Auburn will be an attractive job. That doesn't ensure we will make a good hire.  Before Saban, from 1997 to 2006,  Mike Dubose, Dennis Franchionne, and Mike Shula combined for a 31-41 conference record, and last I heard, Alabama's a pretty decent football school.   Florida has never been the same since Spurrier left. Anybody heard much from Michigan or USC lately? Charlie Strong at Texas ring a bell?  Transitions just don't always go well.  We agree that Malzhan needs to get it done this year on the field.  It's just that there is only a small number of actual coaches that I would trade him for right now. And since Saban is one,  it would probably cost me my soul.  That unknown awesome assistant somewhere that will beat LSU, Georgia, and Alabama every year, and then again in the conference title game is mostly a fantasy.  All that said, we need a great season. This year.

No one will beat LSU-UGA-Alabama every year, it's never been done at Auburn.  But I don't want Auburn to keep settling for mediocrity while watching the freaking Ed Orgeron's/Joe Moorehead/Jeremy Pruitt's of this conference kick our ass with our seasoned HC at the helm.  And I dang sure don't want to watch Jimbo boost up aTm and jump us in the West pecking order.

Auburn sits in coaching purgatory right now,  the staff isn't bad enough to to fire and they aren't good enough to be pulling a top 5 salary either.  The buyout's will be astronomical with little guarantee that their replacements can do any better. 

It's PURGATORY for football fans as we are forced to suffer through this mediocre stint with a morally sound coaching staff who all represent Auburn in a first class manner.

 

[Tiger 8,829]

40 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

They didn't sit around waiting on the wrong guy to become the right guy.

Powwww

[Cardin Drake 1,848]

57 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

If he gets it right, he gets it right. But "possibly bad" is better than "definitely bad". 

Malzhan has won 69% of his SEC games, better than Shug Jordan, and slightly behind  & Pat Dye at just over 70% as the best in Auburn recent history. It's not "definitely bad "  No doubt I'm on the more forgiving side of the spectrum, but events will play out as they play out. I don't think Malzhan on the hot seat, but it's a little toasty. I think Gus has done a good job controlling what is in his control, and he has been heavily involved in the only 2 true national championship games Auburn has been in since I've been a fan.  Still if it's time to make a change, it will be time to make a change. But don't discount the fact they you may be facing a 10 or 15 year walk in the wilderness when you do. The first team on your list (Bama) did exactly that before Saban.  It's not a reason to not make a change, but it's a reason to not make it lightly.

[McLoofus 35,182]

2 minutes ago, Cardin Drake said:

Malzhan has won 69% of his SEC games, better than Shug Jordan, and slightly behind  & Pat Dye at just over 70% as the best in Auburn recent history.

It's not the win percentage. It's the embarrassing ways in which he loses, both to superior and inferior teams. Regardless, are you good with 8-5 because that's just what Auburn is? Or do you want Auburn to be better?

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It's not "definitely bad " 

Depends on who you ask. But we'll change it to "definitely not good enough" which is exactly what a significant portion of the fanbase as well as some extremely important people who write extremely big checks think. And what anyone who would spend as much as it costs to go to a game deserves to think.

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I don't think Malzhan on the hot seat, but it's a little toasty.

He was literally an interception by a first-year cornerback away from being fired midseason last year.

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I think Gus has done a good job controlling what is in his control

Like the 2017 LSU game?

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he has been heavily involved in the only 2 true national championship games Auburn has been since I've been a fan.

Yeah, his first season 6 years ago was pretty sweet. A bit of a walk in the wilderness since.

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 Still if it's time to make a change, it will be time to make a change.

Well... yeah.

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But don't discount the fact they you may be facing a 10 or 15 year walk in the wilderness when you do.

Already been over that. It's very unlikely. And it's certainly no reason to continue on with the 5 year walk in the wilderness we're already on, unless you really do think that 8-5 is our ceiling and what we should be content with. Regardless, you and the others who push this line of thinking seem to consider those of us who don't buy it somewhat naive. Not sure how many ways we can explain that we're well aware of the minimal risk and we think it's well worth it to try to get better. I must admit, it's tough for me to put myself in different shoes on that. 

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The first team on your list (Bama) did exactly that before Saban.  

Well, no sense in continuing if we're just gonna completely ignore each other. 

[aujeff11 6,243]

If we dump Gus’s contract we damn sure better be able to hire a guy that can do better than 8-5.

I get that we should not be sitting on our hands, but you have to know what’s out there and have a strong inclination that not only will a quality coach come to Auburn, but that he will do well. You don’t quit your job without having jobs lined up. You don’t go into the shower without having a towel ready. You don’t take a dump without checking for toilet paper. Do I need to go on?