The Offensive Scheme Itself is Destined for Failure

[WarEagleChemE 99]

You cannot have a run-first team if your runners aren't a threat to take it every time they touch the ball. You can't sustain drives.

Here's the reality: 2nd and 6 is a win for the defense. Even if you have good O-Line play and can get 3-4 yards a carry, you will put yourself in 3rd down again and again. Too much attention is paid to 3rd down conversion percentage, but it gets overshadowed if you have to convert five times on third down to have a successful drive. The defense only needs one stop.

You need chunk plays. You need to play like Alabama or LSU where they'll throw it 20 yards a time over the middle instead of the few passes attempted being behind the line of scrimmage. The success in the 4th quarter against Georgia (and maybe it was because their defense started playing soft) came from downfield passing.

Again, if you want to have a run-first offense, you need a guy like Nick Marshall who is a threat to take it every time he has the ball. We don't have that. Whitlow is a good RB in any other scheme but he doesn't have the sheer speed for big play ability. Nix won't bust one either. And it's not a knock on them: it's just that this scheme has set the offense up for failure from the beginning.

Here's a typical Auburn drive:

1st and 10 - Whitlow fights hard for three yards

2nd and 7 - Short pass behind the line of scrimmage for 5 yards

3rd and 2 - Nix keeps for 3 yards

1st and 10 - Dive up the middle for 1 yd

2nd and 9 - Another screen pass behind the line of scrimmage for 3 yards

3rd and 6 - Incomplete pass

4th and 6 - Punt

You can't play like this and expect to win. You can convert half of your third downs and it doesn't matter. I know I'm repeating myself a lot, but at this point, nothing will change unless the scheme changes, and the scheme will never change unless the coach changes. We've recycled OCs year after year but the offensive philosophy has stayed the same, and it's not a good one.

[Gowebb11 9,337]

2 minutes ago, WarEagleChemE said:

You can't play like this and expect to win. You can convert half of your third downs and it doesn't matter. I know I'm repeating myself a lot, but at this point, nothing will change unless the scheme changes, and the scheme will never change unless the coach changes. We've recycled OCs year after year but the offensive philosophy has stayed the same, and it's not a good one.

Gus’s offense has certain keys that totally give away running plays. Thats why Jeremy Pruitt spent last years game running up and down the UTenn sidelines yelling out to his defense what was coming, and UGAs safeties were sprinting  full speed to the LOS on certain plays. That, and an Oline more on par with the Sunbelt than the SEC makes it almost impossible to run against top SEC teams. 

[Auhud08 596]

The biggest problem with Gus Offense is the lack of a complex route tree. We threw the ball 50 times against UGA and had a good completion % and yardage. But it was easy for Georgia to defend when they had to. 

[nixtosanders94 2,180]

The great tragedy of the Gus years will be what could have been with just a little less stubborn attitude and a little more creativity and diversity.  Just a little of that and this whole discussion never exists. 

To his credit Gus has never had the “wheels come off” season that his 3 predecessors all had.  During the Bowden, Tubs and Chiz years I often wondered how any coach could have a 3-9 type year with Auburn’s talent and resources.  I always thought a good coach could stabilize the program and make 8-4 the bottom out record at Auburn.  Gus has kinda done that but unfortunately 8-4 also seems to be mostly his ceiling too.  Now, we need the coach who can take it to the next level.  Gus has done some good things but evolving this offense isn’t one of them.  In fact, I would say its regressed.  Maybe thats due to rule changes or defenses catching up to him but whatever the cause he didn’t adapt.  Ultimately it will cost him his job whether its this year or next.  

[caleb1633 1,418]

I think Gus has a very elementary understanding of how to read a defense and pit his strengths against its weaknesses. I think he found success in the league by being able to do two things: trick the defense and wear them down through the HUNH. His scheme has been figured out, and teams don't get worn down by hurry up offenses anymore. So unless we're going up against a team we can just out-talent (e.g., Arky, Ole Miss, Miss St, etc.), his offense is easily shut down.

[Piketiger1990 173]

If I can literally call the play and know exactly where the ball is going, so do these SEC defenses. This happens 7/10 plays. If I were Gus I’d go 4 wide HUNH all game, seems to be the only time we have successful drives. 

[MaxP 137]

No good offensive coaching talent will come to Auburn. Forget a good offensive line coach. This is a tailspin of a plane missing a wing. There is no pulling out only going down.

[Carnell 592]

2 hours ago, WarEagleChemE said:

You cannot have a run-first team if your runners aren't a threat to take it every time they touch the ball. You can't sustain drives.

Here's the reality: 2nd and 6 is a win for the defense. Even if you have good O-Line play and can get 3-4 yards a carry, you will put yourself in 3rd down again and again. Too much attention is paid to 3rd down conversion percentage, but it gets overshadowed if you have to convert five times on third down to have a successful drive. The defense only needs one stop.

You need chunk plays. You need to play like Alabama or LSU where they'll throw it 20 yards a time over the middle instead of the few passes attempted being behind the line of scrimmage. The success in the 4th quarter against Georgia (and maybe it was because their defense started playing soft) came from downfield passing.

Again, if you want to have a run-first offense, you need a guy like Nick Marshall who is a threat to take it every time he has the ball. We don't have that. Whitlow is a good RB in any other scheme but he doesn't have the sheer speed for big play ability. Nix won't bust one either. And it's not a knock on them: it's just that this scheme has set the offense up for failure from the beginning.

Here's a typical Auburn drive:

1st and 10 - Whitlow fights hard for three yards

2nd and 7 - Short pass behind the line of scrimmage for 5 yards

3rd and 2 - Nix keeps for 3 yards

1st and 10 - Dive up the middle for 1 yd

2nd and 9 - Another screen pass behind the line of scrimmage for 3 yards

3rd and 6 - Incomplete pass

4th and 6 - Punt

You can't play like this and expect to win. You can convert half of your third downs and it doesn't matter. I know I'm repeating myself a lot, but at this point, nothing will change unless the scheme changes, and the scheme will never change unless the coach changes. We've recycled OCs year after year but the offensive philosophy has stayed the same, and it's not a good one.

Gus may call it a run first offense but we actually we passed more against Lsu and the dogs than run.  I was looking for stats on the #of times we ran/pass on first down but couldnt find any.  So the run first may be a misnomer.  

Our offense cant protect bo to set up routes to get those 20 yards chuck plays.

 

 

[auburnphan 6,050]

Keep preaching, been calling it out for 5 years.

[Strychnine 1,802]

8 minutes ago, caleb1633 said:

I don't think Gus has a true understanding of how to read a defense and pit his strengths against its weaknesses. I think he found success in the league by being able to do two things: trick the defense and wear them down through the HUNH. His scheme has been figured out, and teams don't get worn down by hurry up offenses anymore. So unless we're going up against a team we can just out-talent (e.g., Arky, Ole Miss, Miss St, etc.), his offense is easily shut down.

 

The problem with his desire to trick the defense is that it does not really work so well without the HUNH, and he does not commit the offense to HUNH.  Sometimes the offense executes fast, sometimes they line up fast and hold the snap while the play is changed after a game of defensive peek-a-boo, and sometimes there are substitutions every other down.  There are plenty of times that all three of those can be seen on the same drive.

If an offense keeps the tempo up, the defense does not have time to substitute, and defensive coaches have limited time between plays to point out anything they are seeing.  Defensive players do not have time to analyze what they are seeing from the offense, or think about everything their coaches worked on that week, as they are being pressed to get in position and be ready for another play.  An offense built to run fast has to be simple, because play calls have to come quickly, and a 4000 page playbook becomes counterproductive.  When an offense built around the philosophy of high tempo surrenders the main advantage that it has, it becomes far easier for good defenses and good defensive coaches to neutralize.

[Beenjammin 87]

Besides the "up-the middle" rush we always attempt. I think even with the linear scheme outlined above, with a better O-line, it would work ( or work better this year). I still feel thee O-line is the missing piece. Every second they could give Bo (confidence and accuracy), or the blocks/holes they could give RBs to make the designed play.  Its really the same O-line as last year, but Bo is faster then Stidham, but less accurate so the end result is much the same as last year. Our Defense, is what is even keeping the scores close.

[dyehardfanAU 2,117]

2 hours ago, auburnphan said:

Keep preaching, been calling it out for 5 years.

It's been right there staring everyone in the face but most chose to ignore it cuz Top 10 Crootin Points trophies.

[fasttimes 356]

its probably just me, but it seems like anytime we find success with a play or type of play we move away from it, never to try it again. i really don't understand that at all.

[Tigerpro2a 5,650]

I think the biggest issue is just Gus being Stubborn. I don't remember when it was in the UGA game but it was a 3rd or 4th and short...and we were in wildcat (which I hate) and the UGA Def had 8 guys to the right side of the line. They were stacked and banked on Boobee faking the JEt to the left and keeping it right...I was thinking..no way will we do that...all the while knowing that was exactly what we would do and the exact result which was Boobee running and dancing in circles for a loss of about 8 IIRC.

 

[I_M4_AU 7,863]

Good analysis, @WarEagleChemE.  Knowing that our new OC has no say as to how to evolve our offense, what is the solution?  Know that if we hire a new OC, he wouldn’t have a say in how to evolve our offense, what is the solution?

[AURealist 2,185]

5 minutes ago, fasttimes said:

its probably just me, but it seems like anytime we find success with a play or type of play we move away from it, never to try it again. i really don't understand that at all.

Personally, I think Gus spends hours cloistered in his war room working up what he feels is the perfect game plan.  When that doesn't work past the first possession, he reluctantly tries something else.  But, as soon as the offense starts progressing down the field, he returns to implement his perfect game plan.  

I think this is part of what some folks are calling stubbornness on his part.  I think it's more like single-mindedness.  If you've ever seen the movie, The Accountant, it might make more sense.

[Strychnine 1,802]

17 minutes ago, I_M4_AU said:

Good analysis, @WarEagleChemE.  Knowing that our new OC has no say as to how to evolve our offense, what is the solution?  Know that if we hire a new OC, he wouldn’t have a say in how to evolve our offense, what is the solution?

 

Gus is the offense's identity, and everyone knew that when he was hired.  As long as Gus remains the head coach, Auburn's offense is simply not going to evolve beyond whatever he wants.  The only real solution that involves Gus, is for Gus to make his own determination that he is ready for someone else to handle the heavy lifting and hire an actual offensive coordinator to do it.  Does he have that in him?  I have no idea, but I am inclined to think he would have reached that point before now, if he was going to.  I do think forcing that concept down his throat would result in little more than a bunch of animosity.

[I_M4_AU 7,863]

4 minutes ago, Strychnine said:

 

Gus is the offense's identity, and everyone knew that when he was hired.  As long as Gus remains the head coach, Auburn's offense is simply not going to evolve beyond whatever he wants.  The only real solution that involves Gus, is for Gus to make his own determination that he is ready for someone else to handle the heavy lifting and hire an actual offensive coordinator to do it.  Does he have that in him?  I have no idea, but I am inclined to think he would have reached that point before now, if he was going to.  I do think forcing that concept down his throat would result in little more than a bunch of animosity.

Sooooo, the solution is.....?

[Squidward2016 51]

I’m off the Gus bus, but I still don’t know if the scheme/playcalling is the problem like the prevailing narrative states.  Ferguson has an article on the Athletic that shows how the shift in the 4th quarter’s success didn’t come from a change in play calls, but from the players (mainly bo) simply making more plays.

We always complain about Gus not opening up the offense, etc but we passed a great deal more than ran yesterday. 62.5% of our first 3 quarters plays were passing, and 80% of the 4th. By my count, we threw SIX slants to Seth in the first half. We didn’t substitute much, we had our players spread out 4 wide the majority of the time, and we used quick passes to open up the run. 
 

I don’t know what Gus’s problem is, but it really doesn’t seem to be the same issues we’ve always complained about. (I’m still eager to fire him and get PJ or Matt Rhule though)

[AuburnTiger4Life 2,225]

Also can’t have a DT quarterback and not allow him to run the ball 

[WarTim 3,456]

Bo was the leading rusher vs uga. Also scored rushing td. 

[Gibson SG 88]

1 hour ago, fasttimes said:

its probably just me, but it seems like anytime we find success with a play or type of play we move away from it, never to try it again. i really don't understand that at all.

i.e. "The Slant".  We were killing UGA with the slant early on, even though our drives stalled.  The slant worked every time.  Then, we never saw it again.

[Tiger 8,829]

The man has been trying his hardest to not have  DT QB when that's what made him filthy rich. It's the main factor that makes this thing go. He needs that emergency bail out built in to his O but he prefers 3 and outs I guess

 

[Strychnine 1,802]

6 minutes ago, I_M4_AU said:

Sooooo, the solution is.....?

 

For us?  There is only one solution available to us, and that is whisky.

For Auburn?  It is his 7th season, and I would consider that an ample body of work from which to determine to fire him.

[LeonardAU 237]

So you're saying HURRY HURRY HURRY > 2nd & 9 is not a sound offensive strategy?