Brandon Strikes Again

[auburnatl1 5,097]

54 minutes ago, I_M4_AU said:

China is suffering from a self inflicted wound and Biden, Newsom and a bunch of CEO’s of American companies fawn over Xi.  Yes, very alpha male.

Sorry to interrupt the Brandon stuff, but yes as has been noted before - China is 3-4 yrs away from a total demographic economic implosion.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/miltonezrati/2023/11/01/chinas-demographic-catastrophe/amp/

[SaltyTiger 7,870]

[TexasTiger 13,053]

51 minutes ago, SaltyTiger said:

Turkey is very American. Why not?

[SaltyTiger 7,870]

8 hours ago, TexasTiger said:

Turkey is very American. Why not?

Beat hotdogs I suppose. Knew M4 would get a kick out of it. Old Joe takes a lot of heat but tons of people out there would sign a contract to be in his condition at 81 yo. 

[TexasTiger 13,053]

48 minutes ago, SaltyTiger said:

Old Joe takes a lot of heat but tons of people out there would sign a contract to be in his condition at 81 yo. 

Can’t fall of your bike if you ain’t riding it.

[I_M4_AU 8,012]

 

 

[I_M4_AU 8,012]

 

I believe him, don’t you?

[KansasTiger 3,256]

@I_M4_AU because I don't want to deep dive the political forum, is there any discussion to all the recent polling numbers between Trump and Biden? I know most people on this forum don't like Trump and many think Biden will be replaced (though theyd better hurry), but his recent polling numbers I think warrant some attention. RCP shows the average polling at Trump +2.1% in popular vote. Thats not even counting inherent advantages for Trump in the electoral map. Michigan +2.1 Trump. Ohio +10 Trump. Florida +10 Trump. Arizona +4.8 Trump. Georgia +5.5 Trump. Pennsylvania +1.5 Trump. Nevada +4.0 Trump. And many of those numbers go up for Trump when you throw in Kennedy. But I scan the front page discussion board of topics and mostly just see bashing of conservatives.

It's clear to me that unless something changes, Biden will lose to Trump and it won't be particularly close.

[I_M4_AU 8,012]

3 minutes ago, KansasTiger said:

@I_M4_AU because I don't want to deep dive the political forum, is there any discussion to all the recent polling numbers between Trump and Biden? I know most people on this forum don't like Trump and many think Biden will be replaced (though theyd better hurry), but his recent polling numbers I think warrant some attention. RCP shows the average polling at Trump +2.1% in popular vote. Thats not even counting inherent advantages for Trump in the electoral map. Michigan +2.1 Trump. Ohio +10 Trump. Florida +10 Trump. Arizona +4.8 Trump. Georgia +5.5 Trump. Pennsylvania +1.5 Trump. Nevada +4.0 Trump. And many of those numbers go up for Trump when you throw in Kennedy. But I scan the front page discussion board of topics and mostly just see bashing of conservatives.

It's clear to me that unless something changes, Biden will lose to Trump and it won't be particularly close.

This forum leans left and things like Trump being up in the polls and Biden in deep with Hunter’s business dealings are met with indignation.  I have yet to see anybody take Biden’s corruption with anything other than there is no evidence and it is a waste of time.

The poll numbers are troubling for Biden and the Dems know it even though they won’t admit it.  They are still beating the Trump is an authoritarian drum along with a threat to democracy.  The polls are showing the general public are not believing it.  Biden is straddling the fence on Israel and Hamas and shows his weakness.  He is in deep trouble and so is his campaign.  No way he will win any kind of debate no matter who he goes up against.

I don’t want Trump in the conversation, but the polls are the polls and Trump is up.  All he has to do is make this about Biden and not about him.  That will be hard to do.  The wild card still is the criminal cases.

It’s going to be a wild year and a half.

[KansasTiger 3,256]

16 minutes ago, I_M4_AU said:

This forum leans left and things like Trump being up in the polls and Biden in deep with Hunter’s business dealings are met with indignation.  I have yet to see anybody take Biden’s corruption with anything other than there is no evidence and it is a waste of time.

The poll numbers are troubling for Biden and the Dems know it even though they won’t admit it.  They are still beating the Trump is an authoritarian drum along with a threat to democracy.  The polls are showing the general public are not believing it.  Biden is straddling the fence on Israel and Hamas and shows his weakness.  He is in deep trouble and so is his campaign.  No way he will win any kind of debate no matter who he goes up against.

I don’t want Trump in the conversation, but the polls are the polls and Trump is up.  All he has to do is make this about Biden and not about him.  That will be hard to do.  The wild card still is the criminal cases.

It’s going to be a wild year and a half.

The criminal cases will matter only if they somehow are able to use it to take him off the ballot in some states. Which looks unlikely. The numbers clearly indicate to me that a majority of Americans see these criminal cases as political persecution. I'm not sure a conviction would matter if that's thew current view.

[CoffeeTiger 5,185]

1 hour ago, KansasTiger said:

@I_M4_AU because I don't want to deep dive the political forum, is there any discussion to all the recent polling numbers between Trump and Biden? I know most people on this forum don't like Trump and many think Biden will be replaced (though theyd better hurry), but his recent polling numbers I think warrant some attention. RCP shows the average polling at Trump +2.1% in popular vote. Thats not even counting inherent advantages for Trump in the electoral map. Michigan +2.1 Trump. Ohio +10 Trump. Florida +10 Trump. Arizona +4.8 Trump. Georgia +5.5 Trump. Pennsylvania +1.5 Trump. Nevada +4.0 Trump. And many of those numbers go up for Trump when you throw in Kennedy. But I scan the front page discussion board of topics and mostly just see bashing of conservatives.

It's clear to me that unless something changes, Biden will lose to Trump and it won't be particularly close.

 

In March of 2016, 8 months before the election, RCP polling average had Hillary at +11.4 over Trump. 

 

[KansasTiger 3,256]

Just now, CoffeeTiger said:

 

In March of 2016, 8 months before the election, RCP polling average had Hillary at +11.4 over Trump. 

 

Cool story. I'm sure Joe Biden is primed to have a massive grassroots surge like Trump had in 2016 to close the gap.

[CoffeeTiger 5,185]

1 minute ago, KansasTiger said:

Cool story. I'm sure Joe Biden is primed to have a massive grassroots surge like Trump had in 2016 to close the gap.

I think A LOT of Dems and INDs people who aren't thrilled with Biden today are going to ultimately vote for him anyway when they start getting 24/7 doses of Trumps inane ramblings and insane "truther" rants at 3am after the primaries are over and general election coverage starts.  

I'm not saying Biden is a great candidate, because he's not, but he is a safer and more sane candidate which is why he beat Trump in 2020, and why I think he'll beat him again in 2024. 

[KansasTiger 3,256]

3 minutes ago, CoffeeTiger said:

I think A LOT of Dems and INDs people who aren't thrilled with Biden today are going to ultimately vote for him anyway when they start getting 24/7 doses of Trumps inane ramblings and insane "truther" rants at 3am after the primaries are over and general election coverage starts.  

I'm not saying Biden is a great candidate, because he's not, but he is a safer and more sane candidate which is why he beat Trump in 2020, and why I think he'll beat him again in 2024. 

Sure, I think anything is possible. But I think most people who support Trump now aren't going to be surprised by anything he says or does between now and election time. And they aren't the type of people that will listen to the MSM's opinion/interpretation of Trump's words, either. Right now, independents and moderates are having to pick between Trump's inane ramblings or Biden's incapableness and obvious puppetry. And the numbers bear out that they're picking Trump so far. But not just that, and I haven't dug through all the numbers yet, but I think some of this swell for Trump is coming from minority voters. That's going to be a big problem for Biden.

I think the main difference in this election and why you're seeing the disparity in numbers between now and 2020 is that Biden hasn't been able to hide during this presidency like he did during his campaign (even though he has tried). He can't hide the effect of some of his lesser successful policies and he can't hide his lack of mental faculties. While people may have been concerned about his mental state back in 2020, his campaign did a good job of keeping that a nebulous fringe idea. It's not anymore, and it's been on full display for 2+ years. Whether you agree or not, a majority of Americans in both parties think it's a major issue. In just June of this year, roughly 70% of voters thought it was a concern (NBC poll). And I don't think that number is going to go down. In September, that number rose to 74.4%, per a poll from the Hill.

[Gowebb11 9,387]

Our nation is in deep trouble no matter which of the two are next President. The fact that those are two choices are enough evidence. A demented, weak, and corrupt guy vs a crazy liar, criminal, and sexual assaulter. Throw in the likes of Pelosi, Menendez, Boebert, and Green and we’re doomed. 

Edited December 6, 2023 by Gowebb11

[KansasTiger 3,256]

16 minutes ago, Gowebb11 said:

Our nation is in deep trouble no matter which of the two are next President. The fact that those are two choices are enough evidence. A demented, weak, and corrupt guy vs a crazy liar, criminal, and sexual assaulter. Throw in the likes of Pelosi, Menendez, Boebert, and Green and we’re doomed. 

Here here.

Don't take my commentary on the numbers as an endorsement of Trump. Just found the disparity interesting.

Edited December 6, 2023 by KansasTiger

[auburnatl1 5,097]

I personally think that if the country is forced into trump v Biden part 2 - a third party run is inevitable. 90% chance or better. Manchin, Lieberman, ect. And once the country watches Trump and Biden debate and try to form complete sentences…. who knows.  Maybe sanity and ability still matter to voters

[KansasTiger 3,256]

7 hours ago, auburnatl1 said:

I personally think that if the country is forced into trump v Biden part 2 - a third party run is inevitable. 90% chance or better. Manchin, Lieberman, ect. And once the country watches Trump and Biden debate and try to form complete sentences…. who knows.  Maybe sanity and ability still matter to voters

So your solution is to propose another 81 year old lifetime Democrat or someone who can't win his own state? Just throw Liz Cheney in, make it the perfect 'moderate' trifecta that no one on either side wants to vote for.

45%+ of the country has supported Trump for 7 years, but they're fixin to abandon him for a moderate democrat this election cause...reasons!

Edited December 7, 2023 by KansasTiger

[auburnatl1 5,097]

1 hour ago, KansasTiger said:

So your solution is to propose another 81 year old lifetime Democrat or someone who can't win his own state? Just throw Liz Cheney in, make it the perfect 'moderate' trifecta that no one on either side wants to vote for.

45%+ of the country has supported Trump for 7 years, but they're fixin to abandon him for a moderate democrat this election cause...reasons!

Statistically most of the country is moderate.  IMO most of the people who post in political forums are not.

Im hoping the majority finally asserts itself  and closes down the political extremes current crazyland.

[KansasTiger 3,256]

1 minute ago, auburnatl1 said:

Statistically most of the country is moderate.  IMO most of the people who post in political forums are not.

Im hoping the majority finally asserts itself  and closes down the political extremes current crazyland.

I don't think that hope lives in reality, brother.

[auburnatl1 5,097]

12 minutes ago, KansasTiger said:

I don't think that hope lives in reality, brother.

Maybe. The  situation has been the extremes vote at a higher percentage than moderates. Because.. they’re extremes.  It’s been non symmetrical representation.  Im  betting moderate have finally had enough.

Edited December 7, 2023 by auburnatl1

[KansasTiger 3,256]

12 minutes ago, auburnatl1 said:

Maybe. The  situation has been the extremes vote at a higher percentage than moderates. Because.. they’re extremes.  It’s been non symmetrical representation.  Im  betting moderate have finally had enough.

Perhaps. But I've seen moderate politicians get us into this mess in the first place. It's moderate Republicans I might have the most distrust and hatred for. Neocons who for the last 30 years traded the lives of our soldiers and gave up our freedoms in the name of endless wars, corruption, backroom deals, and money laundering schemes with foreign countries and the military industrial complex. I may not directly support Trump, but I know how his supporters think. The appetite for moderate conservatives was also soured by their inaction on the things that mattered.

But I'm not naive enough to think there's any politician that can get elected at that level that can right this ship. So I'm just enjoying the ride and wherever it ends.

[CoffeeTiger 5,185]

41 minutes ago, auburnatl1 said:

Maybe. The  situation has been the extremes vote at a higher percentage than moderates. Because.. they’re extremes.  It’s been non symmetrical representation.  Im  betting moderate have finally had enough.

 

 

I think that if moderates/independents had anywhere close to the power or influence you suggest then we would have seen their influence manifest itself more in past elections.  If you believe polling, moderates have been fed up with the political system and Americas direction for a long time already, yet the R/D stranglehold on our political system is as strong as it's ever been.

 

I think history shows that when Americans become disillusioned with their politics and political parties they never show up in force to vote for 3rd parties or independents....they rather just choose to not vote at all. 

Which ultimately may work in Trumps favor in 2024. The Republican extremists almost universally support Trump, while the Democrat side is much more divided with the progressive left becoming more separated and disillusioned with Biden on many issues. I think Biden will have to depend on moderates for electoral success more than Trump will, which may hurt him if left leaning moderates choose to not turn out to the polls.  

 

Edited December 7, 2023 by CoffeeTiger

[TexasTiger 13,053]

20 hours ago, KansasTiger said:

The criminal cases will matter only if they somehow are able to use it to take him off the ballot in some states. Which looks unlikely. The numbers clearly indicate to me that a majority of Americans see these criminal cases as political persecution. I'm not sure a conviction would matter if that's thew current view.

https://www.reuters.com/legal/about-half-us-republicans-could-spurn-trump-if-he-is-convicted-reutersipsos-poll-2023-08-03/

[TexasTiger 13,053]

If the country votes for Trump, the experiment is over and it failed. Had a decent run, though.