Inside the Numbers - Improved Pass Offense

[StatTiger 3,188]

Through ten games, the Auburn pass offense has compiled a pass efficiency rating of 132.5, significantly improving from the 110.0 rating in 2022. Auburn’s current pass efficiency is the best since the 2018 season. The transition to Payton Thorne being the true starting quarterback has paid off, as Auburn’s pass efficiency during the current winning streak is 160.4.

Auburn has a pass efficiency rating of 145.1 on first down, a major improvement from the 122.3 rating in 2022. During the current winning streak, Auburn has increased passing on first down, resulting in a pass efficiency of 169.4. Has the Auburn pass arrived? No, as the following data will show. It is, however, a good sign of improvement and a foundation for the Hugh Freeze offenses to come.

Here are some recent trends that need to improve regarding the pass offense.

· From 1992-2023, Auburn’s average yards per pass attempt is 7.49. Auburn is currently at 6.88 yards, marking the fifth year in a row the pass attempt average has fallen below 7.0 yards. It has improved to 7.93 yards per attempt during the last three games.

· Auburn averages a pass play of 15+ yards every 8.2 attempts, the worst ratio from 1992-2023. The average ratio during the last 32 seasons is one every 5.6 attempts. It has improved to 1 every 6.7 attempts during the last three games.

· Passing efficiency on third down is 94.5, well below the school average of 124.1 from 1992-2023. It is also below last year’s third down rating of 106.0. It has improved during the last three games at 123.0.

Games of 140+ pass efficiency and at least 30 yards rushing (1990-2023):

Cam Newton (9) 9.0 per season.

Nick Marshall (13) 6.5 per season.

Payton Thorne (5) 5.0 per season. (Thorne has three games left in 2023.)

Dameyune Craig (6) 3.0 per season.

Bo Nix (7) 2.3 per season.

Thoughts?

[Dwayne Pride 379]

You are way too smart for this message board.  

[RunInRed 16,593]

I still think we’re a QB and a few good WRs away from living up to potential. I’m glad we’ve made progress, just seems like we’re finally getting the most out of what we have vs being what we truly are capable of being.

[Hank2020 3,228]

14 hours ago, StatTiger said:

Through ten games, the Auburn pass offense has compiled a pass efficiency rating of 132.5, significantly improving from the 110.0 rating in 2022. Auburn’s current pass efficiency is the best since the 2018 season. The transition to Payton Thorne being the true starting quarterback has paid off, as Auburn’s pass efficiency during the current winning streak is 160.4.

Auburn has a pass efficiency rating of 145.1 on first down, a major improvement from the 122.3 rating in 2022. During the current winning streak, Auburn has increased passing on first down, resulting in a pass efficiency of 169.4. Has the Auburn pass arrived? No, as the following data will show. It is, however, a good sign of improvement and a foundation for the Hugh Freeze offenses to come.

Here are some recent trends that need to improve regarding the pass offense.

· From 1992-2023, Auburn’s average yards per pass attempt is 7.49. Auburn is currently at 6.88 yards, marking the fifth year in a row the pass attempt average has fallen below 7.0 yards. It has improved to 7.93 yards per attempt during the last three games.

· Auburn averages a pass play of 15+ yards every 8.2 attempts, the worst ratio from 1992-2023. The average ratio during the last 32 seasons is one every 5.6 attempts. It has improved to 1 every 6.7 attempts during the last three games.

· Passing efficiency on third down is 94.5, well below the school average of 124.1 from 1992-2023. It is also below last year’s third down rating of 106.0. It has improved during the last three games at 123.0.

Games of 140+ pass efficiency and at least 30 yards rushing (1990-2023):

Cam Newton (9) 9.0 per season.

Nick Marshall (13) 6.5 per season.

Payton Thorne (5) 5.0 per season. (Thorne has three games left in 2023.)

Dameyune Craig (6) 3.0 per season.

Bo Nix (7) 2.3 per season.

Thoughts?

Like I said:   We be gettin better!!

[Win4AU 4,055]

Pretty amazing how much better it got once Hugh got involved.  I know Hugh is all for autonomy but he gave a lot of Auburn fans heartburn having to sit through Monty’s misadventures the first 6 games.  It’s AUmazing how the defense doesn’t get gassed running tempo either.

[woodford 3,681]

PT has always had the ability but the coaching/OL wasn't helping anyone. I'm sure CHF had his reasons but I'm glad he's letting it fly now. Great info!

[maryland tiger 616]

We will see how Payton does when Auburn plays buma. 

Edited November 17, 2023 by maryland tiger

[StatTiger 3,188]

1 hour ago, maryland tiger said:

We will see how Payton does when Auburn plays buma. 

Probably will see how the "team" does against Alabama too.

[Hank2020 3,228]

46 minutes ago, StatTiger said:

Probably will see how the "team" does against Alabama too.

Not on one set if shoulders!!

[maryland tiger 616]

1 hour ago, StatTiger said:

Probably will see how the "team" does against Alabama too.

The "Team" doesn't touch the ball every offensive play. 

[StatTiger 3,188]

3 hours ago, maryland tiger said:

The "Team" doesn't touch the ball every offensive play. 

So Thorne is directly involved in 45.6 percent of the plays regarding actual yardage gained or lost. That means the remainder of the offense (54.4%) needs to play well against Alabama. (I have not seen him struggle handing the ball off.) Indeed, a solid defensive outing would aid the cause for a potential upset. Special teams could assist in field position or setting up scoring opportunities for Auburn while forcing Alabama to drive longer fields, limiting their scoring. He can't control dropped passes, poor route running, and penalties. Thorne alone cannot beat Alabama, and if Auburn loses, there will likely be plenty of fault to dish out.

Through ten games, Thorne has reached a pass rating of 140+ on seven occasions and still has three games to play. During the past 50 years of Auburn football, only Jason Campbell, Cam Newton, Nick Marshall, and Jarrett Stidham have compiled eight or more in one season. Does this make him a star? No, but it shows his level of consistency. I would not be surprised to see him struggle against Alabama because he doesn't have the same supporting cast that Alabama's roster will bring. If Auburn has any shot at pulling off the upset, it will take a "team" effort, and yes, Thorne will have to make plays.

A good sign of a QB is how he responds after a bad play.

Here are Thorne’s pass ratings after throwing a pick. I included his final pass efficiency for the entire game.

California 238.4 (153.5)
Samford 177.8 (146.8)
Ole Miss 280.4 (143.8)
Vandy 210.9 (140.3)
Arkansas 174.6 (167.9)

In every case, he played better after throwing a pick. His combined passing totals after tossing a pick…

43 of 59 for 594 yards, 7 TD’s, and one pick. Completes 73 pct of his passes for 10.1 yards per attempt.

These are strong numbers and reflect his ability to play the next down.

[LPTiger 5,204]

@StatTiger at about game 5 or 6 I argued one reason our offense was not performing well was because we were not balanced.   We were very run heavy and it seemed even more run heavy on first down.   Any chance you could compare overall balance during the 4 game losing streak and the 3 game winning streak and the balance on first down during the same games.   

[StatTiger 3,188]

27 minutes ago, LPTiger said:

@StatTiger at about game 5 or 6 I argued one reason our offense was not performing well was because we were not balanced.   We were very run heavy and it seemed even more run heavy on first down.   Any chance you could compare overall balance during the 4 game losing streak and the 3 game winning streak and the balance on first down during the same games.   

During the four-game losing streak, Auburn was 70.2 percent run during the first half. During the 3-game winning streak, 52.7% run during the first half. With the lead at halftime, we are 76.7% run during the second half (3-game winning streak).

[LPTiger 5,204]

4 hours ago, StatTiger said:

During the four-game losing streak, Auburn was 70.2 percent run during the first half. During the 3-game winning streak, 52.7% run during the first half. With the lead at halftime, we are 76.7% run during the second half (3-game winning streak).

What you are able to do in such short periods of time is simply amazing.

[gman87 398]

2023 Auburn passing statistics remind me of the quote "50% of the time it works every time".

[Swamp Eagle 5,156]

On 11/16/2023 at 5:08 PM, StatTiger said:

Through ten games, the Auburn pass offense has compiled a pass efficiency rating of 132.5, significantly improving from the 110.0 rating in 2022. Auburn’s current pass efficiency is the best since the 2018 season. The transition to Payton Thorne being the true starting quarterback has paid off, as Auburn’s pass efficiency during the current winning streak is 160.4.

Auburn has a pass efficiency rating of 145.1 on first down, a major improvement from the 122.3 rating in 2022. During the current winning streak, Auburn has increased passing on first down, resulting in a pass efficiency of 169.4. Has the Auburn pass arrived? No, as the following data will show. It is, however, a good sign of improvement and a foundation for the Hugh Freeze offenses to come.

Here are some recent trends that need to improve regarding the pass offense.

· From 1992-2023, Auburn’s average yards per pass attempt is 7.49. Auburn is currently at 6.88 yards, marking the fifth year in a row the pass attempt average has fallen below 7.0 yards. It has improved to 7.93 yards per attempt during the last three games.

· Auburn averages a pass play of 15+ yards every 8.2 attempts, the worst ratio from 1992-2023. The average ratio during the last 32 seasons is one every 5.6 attempts. It has improved to 1 every 6.7 attempts during the last three games.

· Passing efficiency on third down is 94.5, well below the school average of 124.1 from 1992-2023. It is also below last year’s third down rating of 106.0. It has improved during the last three games at 123.0.

Games of 140+ pass efficiency and at least 30 yards rushing (1990-2023):

Cam Newton (9) 9.0 per season.

Nick Marshall (13) 6.5 per season.

Payton Thorne (5) 5.0 per season. (Thorne has three games left in 2023.)

Dameyune Craig (6) 3.0 per season.

Bo Nix (7) 2.3 per season.

Thoughts?

I just love the fact that your lack of having a life is so beneficial to the rest of us! 😎

Seriously, I love the stuff you bring, Stat...

[maryland tiger 616]

On 11/17/2023 at 5:41 PM, StatTiger said:

So Thorne is directly involved in 45.6 percent of the plays regarding actual yardage gained or lost. That means the remainder of the offense (54.4%) needs to play well against Alabama. (I have not seen him struggle handing the ball off.) Indeed, a solid defensive outing would aid the cause for a potential upset. Special teams could assist in field position or setting up scoring opportunities for Auburn while forcing Alabama to drive longer fields, limiting their scoring. He can't control dropped passes, poor route running, and penalties. Thorne alone cannot beat Alabama, and if Auburn loses, there will likely be plenty of fault to dish out.

Through ten games, Thorne has reached a pass rating of 140+ on seven occasions and still has three games to play. During the past 50 years of Auburn football, only Jason Campbell, Cam Newton, Nick Marshall, and Jarrett Stidham have compiled eight or more in one season. Does this make him a star? No, but it shows his level of consistency. I would not be surprised to see him struggle against Alabama because he doesn't have the same supporting cast that Alabama's roster will bring. If Auburn has any shot at pulling off the upset, it will take a "team" effort, and yes, Thorne will have to make plays.

A good sign of a QB is how he responds after a bad play.

Here are Thorne’s pass ratings after throwing a pick. I included his final pass efficiency for the entire game.

California 238.4 (153.5)
Samford 177.8 (146.8)
Ole Miss 280.4 (143.8)
Vandy 210.9 (140.3)
Arkansas 174.6 (167.9)

In every case, he played better after throwing a pick. His combined passing totals after tossing a pick…

43 of 59 for 594 yards, 7 TD’s, and one pick. Completes 73 pct of his passes for 10.1 yards per attempt.

These are strong numbers and reflect his ability to play the next down.

Payton doesn't have any excuses for tonight's performance. Auburn should move on from him. 

[AU57 67]

What a dumb #xx

[maryland tiger 616]

35 minutes ago, AU57 said:

What a dumb #xx

😂