Future is still bright folks

[StatTiger 3,188]

With four 24-pt losses to go along with a poor offensive and defensive showing in 2011, it's difficult to imagine brighter days ahead but the numbers say it will happen. Auburn will be close to the 20-10 rule, which has been successful in the past. The "20-10" rule means that Auburn will be close to having at least 20 players with 20 games of experience and 10 players with at least 30 games of experience in 2012. Based on the projected personnel scheduled to return, Auburn will have 22 players with 20 games of experience and 9 with over 30-games. This doesn't include walkon players.

The above chart, reveals Auburn's talent level as well as experience level. Factoring in the current 16 verbal commits from the 2012 class, AU's scholarship roster will have an average star rating of 3.45, highest over the past 8 seasons. This means, 51.2% of the roster will have a 4-star rating or better and only 12.8% of the roster will be 2-stars or lower. It's an obvious transformation from 2008, when the number of 4-star and 2-star players were almost equal.

Note that the previous teams that met the "20-10" rule, compiled a record of 47-5 and the 4 teams that did not are currently 29-21. The above numbers show that Chizik's staff have definitely improved the talent level of the Auburn roster. Attrition from the 2007 and 2008 recruiting classes shifted the classification balance of the roster in later years, which is why Auburn had to operate with a high number of younger players in 2011. It required a couple of recruiting classes to balance out the roster so that Auburn can function closer to the 20-10 experience rule on a regular basis similar to the 2004-2006 run.

Coming into the 2011 season...

Georgia was 31-12 (31 players with 20 games of exp and 12 with 30 games or more)

Clemson was 30-13

Arkansas was 29-12

USCe was 29-10

LSU was 24-10

Alabama was 19-9

Vandy was 23-9

War Eagle!

[Tigerguy 1]

Stat, thanks for the very positive and factual post. As I've told my friends, we will be pretty good in '12 and perhaps great again in '13.

WDE !

[StatTiger 3,188]

Stat, thanks for the very positive and factual post. As I've told my friends, we will be pretty good in '12 and perhaps great again in '13.

WDE !

Before the 2011 season began, the lack of experience at QB, OL and DL was a red flag trouble could be ahead for such a young team. It will remain a red flag in 2012 for the OL and QB position. The positive note is that AU could be more talented at those positions, which might offset the lack of experience.

[McWeagle 4]

Typically outstanding work, Stat.

We're just a year or two behind the fan expectation schedule. We're probably not too far from where the coaches- the people who actually know what kind of football team we have at any given time- thought we'd be.

Just keep the talent coming, coaches.

[mcgufcm 4,107]

Totally agree that better days are fast arriving. Stat, do you have the numbers for 2003? I'm guessing that team made the 20/10 Rule as well. Seems like that team was loaded with experience, but maybe I'm wrong (for example, it seems like Cadillac was experienced but I bet he didn't play in 20 games prior to his Junior year).

As for next year, I think OL is the number one flashing red-light of a warning sign. It's like a road flare warning you away... visible from miles in every direction. That said, I feel like a LOT of positions on the verge of making The Leap, which comes when experience catches up with talent.

I'm looking forward to seeing what the bowl reps, spring ball, and summer workouts do for the DT/DEs, the RBs, and the WRs. I would definitely include the CBs, but I have not nice things to say about their position coach. Plus, I'm not sure what's going to happen with T.Bell (for example, if he comes back with marginally limited mobility, why not shift him back to Safety ala Aairon Savage? We have bodies at CB, and he's more of a playmaker than a cover guy).

Anyway, I love this "Rule," and I think it sheds light on the building harvest we're about to reap.

[StatTiger 3,188]

Totally agree that better days are fast arriving. Stat, do you have the numbers for 2003? I'm guessing that team made the 20/10 Rule as well. Seems like that team was loaded with experience, but maybe I'm wrong (for example, it seems like Cadillac was experienced but I bet he didn't play in 20 games prior to his Junior year).

As for next year, I think OL is the number one flashing red-light of a warning sign. It's like a road flare warning you away... visible from miles in every direction. That said, I feel like a LOT of positions on the verge of making The Leap, which comes when experience catches up with talent.

I'm looking forward to seeing what the bowl reps, spring ball, and summer workouts do for the DT/DEs, the RBs, and the WRs. I would definitely include the CBs, but I have not nice things to say about their position coach. Plus, I'm not sure what's going to happen with T.Bell (for example, if he comes back with marginally limited mobility, why not shift him back to Safety ala Aairon Savage? We have bodies at CB, and he's more of a playmaker than a cover guy).

Anyway, I love this "Rule," and I think it sheds light on the building harvest we're about to reap.

The lack of experience at QB, OL and WR should minimize expectations for 2012 but I think the talent level could offset the lack of experience somewhat. Who knows? Kiehl Frazier could end up being the starter next year and puts together a solid season. One of the RS or TF receivers could step up with Emory Blake. We could see as many as 4 new starters on the OL but they could be more talented than the 4 they replaced except for BM at RT. Of course Lutz and McCalebb could enter the draft early, which would be a slight set back too. I think Mason could replace McCalebb but replacing Lutz will be a bigger issue for the offense.

I do believe the defense could make a huge step forward in 2012. We have a good number of talented players with experience coming back in 2012 and 2013.

[kingfish 73]

Stat its nice to have a voice or reason on board here.

[ValleyTiger 2,894]

Got my shades on.

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

Stat....interesting info but doesn't the average for 2007 and 2008 refute the belief by some that Tubs did a poor job recruiting those years? Bottomline, attrition and other factors play a major role in the end results and this isn't reflected in the

numbers.

[AURaptor 1,125]

Got my shades on.

Yeah, not sure I wanna go that far just yet. I agree, there's potential for upside, but as Coach Dye said - all potential means is that you ain't done it yet.

In '09, I saw a lot of failure, but also a team learn how to play hard and get close to its potential. This year? I saw a huge drop off, and a lot of clueless effort, on the field, and on the sideline.

Quite frankly, I don't know what to make of it.

Many expected this team to go 6-6 or even 5-7. While it may be a credit to Chizik and company that we ended up going 7-5, I saw little improvement over the year. Against the teams we'll need to beat next year, we may have very well have lost ground.

New year, new promises, but until the QB and OL situations are fixed, as well as .... well, a lot of other stuff , it remains to be seen if we'll just repeat 2011 , or if we'll actually challenge the upper half of the conference.

[mcgufcm 4,107]

It is interesting that a LOT of SEC teams seem set up for a run next year (LSU is young, UGA brings back a LOT, South Carolina does too). We're not going to catch any breaks without a lot of internal development for the guys that played this year. That said, experience goes a long way, even when the experience is getting your butt kicked. How many people thought we took major steps forward as a program in 2003? Blow out losses to USC, LSU, UGA and tighter (but still embarrassing) losses to Tech and Ole Miss? But that team took the blowouts hard and fought even harder in the offseason to flip the script. Even when it's "bad" experience, I'll take it.

[quietfan 233]

Stat, thanks for the very positive and factual post. As I've told my friends, we will be pretty good in '12 and perhaps great again in '13.

WDE !

Very true. ...of course, in 2012 we get the favorable SEC home schedule.

Appreciate the post, Stat.

[IndianTiger 95]

Appreciate the data, makes a lot of sense.

[StatTiger 3,188]

Stat....interesting info but doesn't the average for 2007 and 2008 refute the belief by some that Tubs did a poor job recruiting those years? Bottomline, attrition and other factors play a major role in the end results and this isn't reflected in the

numbers.

How many of the 2007 and 2008 recruits made a major contribution to the 2011 team?

[StatTiger 3,188]

Got my shades on.

Yeah, not sure I wanna go that far just yet. I agree, there's potential for upside, but as Coach Dye said - all potential means is that you ain't done it yet.

In '09, I saw a lot of failure, but also a team learn how to play hard and get close to its potential. This year? I saw a huge drop off, and a lot of clueless effort, on the field, and on the sideline.

Quite frankly, I don't know what to make of it.

Many expected this team to go 6-6 or even 5-7. While it may be a credit to Chizik and company that we ended up going 7-5, I saw little improvement over the year. Against the teams we'll need to beat next year, we may have very well have lost ground.

New year, new promises, but until the QB and OL situations are fixed, as well as .... well, a lot of other stuff , it remains to be seen if we'll just repeat 2011 , or if we'll actually challenge the upper half of the conference.

Well... if we're going to quote Pat Dye, he also stated the coaching staff did a better job working with this year's team than 2010. I do agree that player development is a major key to having a successful team but there is no way of calculating player development. The actual point of this post was to show that there is indeed plenty of potential on the current roster. IMO, I don't think 2012 will be any type of "break out" year but I do believe the team will be more competitive.

[AuburnKnight 0]

Great work as always Stat! Loved it!

[McWeagle 4]

It is interesting that a LOT of SEC teams seem set up for a run next year (LSU is young, UGA brings back a LOT, South Carolina does too). We're not going to catch any breaks without a lot of internal development for the guys that played this year. That said, experience goes a long way, even when the experience is getting your butt kicked. How many people thought we took major steps forward as a program in 2003? Blow out losses to USC, LSU, UGA and tighter (but still embarrassing) losses to Tech and Ole Miss? But that team took the blowouts hard and fought even harder in the offseason to flip the script. Even when it's "bad" experience, I'll take it.

Can't hurt that one of the coaches who had a small hand in that turnaround has a slightly less small hand in this team's offseason...

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

Stat....interesting info but doesn't the average for 2007 and 2008 refute the belief by some that Tubs did a poor job recruiting those years? Bottomline, attrition and other factors play a major role in the end results and this isn't reflected in the

numbers.

How many of the 2007 and 2008 recruits made a major contribution to the 2011 team?

Several very key ones such as Ziemba, Fairley, Burns, Smith, etc. I understand your point though. It is, as I said attrition and my point is the redcruitin star averages are often misleading. Tubs didn't slack up on recruitin as many claim but his last two classes had a lot of attrition. Chizik's first two classes have also already had some attrition.

[AURaptor 1,125]

uga had one of the more impressive turn arounds on D in the nation in just 1 season. That helped them go from a 6-7 team to going 10-2 and, landing in the SECCG. It's insane at how much talent our main conf rivals have acquired , in just the past couple years, and they don't seem to be slowing down, either. Richt heard his critics ( and there were many ) , did what was needed, and the pay off has been huge. Even bigger than he had hoped for, is my guess.

Still waiting to see what CGC goes, if anything.

[StatTiger 3,188]

Stat....interesting info but doesn't the average for 2007 and 2008 refute the belief by some that Tubs did a poor job recruiting those years? Bottomline, attrition and other factors play a major role in the end results and this isn't reflected in the

numbers.

How many of the 2007 and 2008 recruits made a major contribution to the 2011 team?

Several very key ones such as Ziemba, Fairley, Burns, Smith, etc. I understand your point though. It is, as I said attrition and my point is the redcruitin star averages are often misleading. Tubs didn't slack up on recruitin as many claim but his last two classes had a lot of attrition. Chizik's first two classes have also already had some attrition.

Yes... that was my point. The damage caused by the attrition from the 2007 and 2008 classes showed up in 2011 and will hurt in 2012. After the 2012 season, Chizik's attrition rate will pave the way for his future teams, 2013 and on.

[CJ Bas 0]

Well... if we're going to quote Pat Dye, he also stated the coaching staff did a better job working with this year's team than 2010.

I know Dye said that back in mid season, but did he repeat it after last Sat's game? It's hard to get Pat Dye to say anything bad about Auburn or our programs to the press.

[StatTiger 3,188]

Well... if we're going to quote Pat Dye, he also stated the coaching staff did a better job working with this year's team than 2010.

I know Dye said that back in mid season, but did he repeat it after last Sat's game? It's hard to get Pat Dye to say anything bad about Auburn or our programs to the press.

Not true. He did not pull any punches at the close of the Bowden and Tuberville eras. As for Dye's comments about this season. He said it before the UGA game but what difference does it make? When he said it, he meant it. Regardless of the blowout losses, he felt the coaching staff was doing a solid job working with so much youth and a lack of talent at some positions. He said before the year started, this team would go through some really tough times and he was correct. He knows what this staff is capable of when everything is in place.

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

Well... if we're going to quote Pat Dye, he also stated the coaching staff did a better job working with this year's team than 2010.

I know Dye said that back in mid season, but did he repeat it after last Sat's game? It's hard to get Pat Dye to say anything bad about Auburn or our programs to the press.

Not true. He did not pull any punches at the close of the Bowden and Tuberville eras. As for Dye's comments about this season. He said it before the UGA game but what difference does it make? When he said it, he meant it. Regardless of the blowout losses, he felt the coaching staff was doing a solid job working with so much youth and a lack of talent at some positions. He said before the year started, this team would go through some really tough times and he was correct. He knows what this staff is capable of when everything is in place.

I love Coach Dye but he and Jimmy Carter need to fade away to a nice resort together.

[AURaptor 1,125]

Jimmy Carter ? Now why'd you have to go there ?

[stealthyfan 124]

How does the talent variant skew the data?

Experience is your driving factor here, but will the higher level of perceived talent move the competitive factor up enough to improve the win potential with your formula.

Then again, being able to unify the team into a cohesive unit on the game field may defeat any gains in talent.

What are your thoughts?