The change at offensive coordinator is a good start but...

[StatTiger 3,188]

The recent struggles of the Auburn offense during the past two seasons brought about the departure of Rhett Lashlee and the hiring of Chip Lindsey to revamp the Tigers offense. The miscues on offense have also tightened the pressure around Gus Malzahn as he prepares to enter his fifth season as Auburn's head coach. The 2017 season will be a focal one as Malzahn might not be able to survive another five-loss season, especially if the quandary on offense continues. Coach Malzahn believes Chip Lindsey is the answer to making the Auburn offense potent again, particularly when it comes to the passing game.

Watching Auburn's offense average 268-yards and 15 points per game during the last four Power-5 games of the season, made it easy to toss the baby out with the bathwater. Though some recognized Auburn's key injuries, many considered the final numbers as the final death-blow to a once dangerous Malzahn offense. On the surface, it appeared his offense had become predictable, conservative and the deficiencies in the passing game were undeniable. In reality, the lack of quality play at the quarterback position can bring most offenses to its knees.

Something to consider...

Sean White has been the most consistent performer at the quarterback position the last two years, but his inability to remain healthy has prevented the offense from maximizing its full potential. When White and his cohorts were healthy, the offense produced quality numbers. Here is a breakdown of the two years worth of "healthy" competition. This stretch of 12-games with a healthy Sean White included the Mississippi State game through the Ole Miss game of 2015 and the Arkansas State through Ole Miss period of 2016. I left out the Clemson game because of the irrational game plan subjected against the eventual National Champions.

During the 12 games with a healthy Sean White Auburn...

• Averaged 482-yards and 35 points per game.
   
• Averaged 268-yards rushing, primarily with a pocket passer.
   
• Converted 49 percent of their third-downs.
   
• Averaged 6.21 yards per play on first down.
   
• Scored on 50 percent of their offensive possessions with the goal being at least 1/3.
   
• Went "3 & out" only 19 percent of the time with the goal of keeping it under 25 percent.
   
• Averaged 39.6 yards gained per possession with the statistical goal of at least 30-yards per possession.
   
• Scored a touchdown every 19.6 plays with the goal being one every 17 plays.
   
• Scored touchdowns inside the red zone during 55.9 percent of their possessions, with the goal being at least 60 percent.
   
• Passer rating of 149.1 with the goal being at least 130, completing 64 percent of their passes for an impressive 8.4 yards per pass attempt.
   
• Averaged 8.4 impact plays per game with the goal being at least 8 per game.
   
• Averaged an impact play every 9.3 plays, with the goal being one every eight plays.

The above numbers showed the potential of the offense with a consistent performer at the quarterback position, but there remained a few concerns. 

Concerns:

• Though the 482-yards were impressive, Auburn should have averaged closer to 40 points per game with that kind of yardage production than the 35 per game they did average.
   
• Part of the problem with the scoring output was the lack of production inside the red zone. The TD percentage of only 55.9 percent inside the red zone was horrible, preventing the Tigers from maximizing their scoring drives.
   
• During the 12 games with a healthy Sean White, Auburn ran the ball over 80 percent of the time on first down. Becoming run-heavy on first down was the origin of Auburn's predictability and an example of a lack of confidence in the passing game. Despite Auburn putting up efficient numbers in the passing game, Malzahn elected to be conservative when it came to first down.
   
• Auburn's lack of impact plays is a direct result of the passing game rarely being featured. Keep in mind that over 67 percent of the plays of 20-yards or more at the FBS level were pass plays during the 2016 season.
   

The level of Competition:

Some will point to the offensive success under a healthy Sean White coming against inferior competition. Though there is validity in this statement, it doesn't change the fact that Auburn was more productive on offense with a healthy Sean White. Some of Auburn's lack of success with a healthy White had more to do with player personnel and play-calling. During the 2015 season with a healthy Sean White, Auburn averaged 3.1 percent more yardage than their opponent generally allowed and scored 8.6 percent more than the opponent allowed. During the 2016 season with a healthy Sean White, the offense gained 28.9 percent more yardage and scored 40.6 percent more than the opponent usually allowed. The offense was much more efficient with a healthy White in 2016 than 2015.

Moving Forward:

So what will Chip Lindsey bring to the table, Rhett Lashlee could not bring? In all fairness to Coach Lashlee, he was only behind the steering wheel of the offense for about 5-6 games during the 2016 season. Though Gus Malzahn publicly stated he was turning the play-calling duties over to Lashlee, Malzahn became more involved once the injuries mounted later in the season. Once again, Gus Malzahn has publicly committed to turning the reigns of the offense over to Chip Lindsey. Only time will tell how committed Gus Malzahn will be to this concept. Lindsey does appear to have a stronger history in quarterback development than Rhett Lashlee.

Coach Lindsey's pass-offense is heavily influenced by the Air-Raid concept, rather than Gus Malzahn's passing schemes. The logical plan is to incorporate Malzahn's running schemes with Lindsey's passing schemes to bring about a new evolution to the Auburn offense. Neither passing system has featured the tight end position in the passing game, but Lindsey does feature the running backs more frequently. Under Malzahn, the Auburn offense has averaged 39 receptions at the RB position per season. Under Lindsey, the running backs averaged 78 receptions per season.

The Auburn pass-offense is in dire need of a vertical punch, and it remains to be seen whether or not Lindsey can bring this to the offense in 2017. Malzahn's offense has generated plays of 15-yards or more in the passing game 19.8 percent of the time, while Lindsey's pass-offense is currently hitting at 18.8 percent. During this past season, Auburn checked in at 17.6 percent, and the Sun Devils of Arizona State was slightly better at 17.8 percent. In terms of "quantity", Arizona State appeared to be better but not so when it came to "quality". Regarding efficiency, Auburn was No. 54 nationally during 2016, while Arizona State was No. 73 as both teams struggled with injuries at the quarterback position.

Despite the injuries, Auburn's 2016 offense did improve overall compared to 2015, which means the offense was not utterly incompetent. Stabilization at the quarterback position should make a significant difference in 2017 regardless of the changes made schematically. If Auburn can remain healthy, I expect the offense to continue to improve and to perform more consistently. Improvement could take place simply because of better quarterback play. Just as the inconsistencies in offense during 2016 was primarily related to injuries, recovery in 2017 doesn't mean all the right moves were made. Even during the record-breaking years on offense witnessed in 2010, 2013 and 2014, Auburn struggled inside the red zone and was extremely predictable on first down. During the past two seasons, Auburn has run the football 79% of the time inside the red zone. During the past two seasons, Chip Lindsey has run the football 63% of the time inside the red zone.

Two statistical categories to watch for in 2017 is the percentage of pass plays called on first down and the percentage of pass attempts on third down. During the seven seasons of Malzahn offense at Auburn, the Tigers have passed the ball only 21 percent of the time on first down and 31 percent of their pass attempts have occurred on third down. During Chip Lindsey's three seasons as a collegiate OC, his offense has passed the ball 40 percent of the time on first down and only 25 percent of their overall passes have come on third down. Lindsey's offense passes the ball when they want to more so than when they have to. This is the exact opposite of Malzahn's offense, where the quarterback is placed into way too many obvious passing situations. During the past two seasons, over 33 percent of Auburn's pass attempts have come on third down.

With the array of returning talent, the addition of a highly-touted quarterback and the accumulation of some new tweaks in the passing game under Chip Lindsey should make the offense dynamic again. A more productive offense will be cause for celebration, but Coach Malzahn must be willing to adjust his offensive schemes for the offense to reach its full potential. Scoring 35 points per game would be great but not if the potential was there to average 40. The opportunity is there for Auburn to reach its offensive ceiling but only if the man in charge permits it to happen.

[AU64 10,122]

Thanks for the analysis....I think CCL is coming into an excellent situation and even one healthy QB for the entire season will make a huge difference in what the offense can do.  He is more pass oriented and that should open things up in the air and on the ground....can't wait.....

[weagl1 1,783]

Great analysis as always!  Thanks!

[AUsince72 11,084]

Thank you for the info.

Though I've never been a fan of a true Air Raid offense because the running game's an obvious afterthought and if the QB is "cold" there's no plan B and Gus' (overly) run-heavy offense obviously left the passing game as an afterthought so when the D stacked the box there's no plan B, there seems to be great potential in combining these two.

Maybe Auburn Football will be at the forefront of a new fad in offensive style......

We'll call it "The Plan B Offense".

War Eagle!

[AUGoo 2,663]

So it appears the TE will still not be utilized with the new OC.

Why would any prospective TE have interest in AU with the intent of being a pass catcher?

Wonder how/if the stud Juco TE will be utilized?

[I_M4_AU 7,805]

The key, as you state Stat, is if the man in charge permits it to happen.  I wonder if Gus has any input into teaching his daughters how to drive.  I'm guessing, NOT.

Edited January 22, 2017 by I_M4_AU

[alexava 6,973]

We have got to throw the ball more, period. I think we were headed in that direction even if Rhett stayed. But now I see it coming for sure. Between JS and SW hopefully we can have a healthy passer all year. Like stat said we can't just throw when we have to we have to throw any time. Chip said his bottom line is to get the ball to his best players. That is a good place to start. I don't know how much he uses zone reads or runs qbs? If anyone can put those numbers up I'll be greatful.

[WarNole 141]

Thanks for the info, Stat.

[AU64 10,122]

47 minutes ago, alexava said:

We have got to throw the ball more, period. I think we were headed in that direction even if Rhett stayed. But now I see it coming for sure. Between JS and SW hopefully we can have a healthy passer all year. Like stat said we can't just throw when we have to we have to throw any time. Chip said his bottom line is to get the ball to his best players. That is a good place to start. I don't know how much he uses zone reads or runs qbs? If anyone can put those numbers up I'll be greatful.

I'm not sure it is how much you throw the ball but when we throw it.     I'm guessing we could be pretty scary if we only passed 30-40 % of the time......but if we only pass primarily on 3rd down and to a lesser extent on 2nd down...and rarely on first down the offense becomes too predictable as we have been in the past couple years.    

Watching a bit of the ASU game someone posted, I note that they passed on first a number of times ...and it was not just the quick outs that we have been using....where we have mostly lost yards.  

We have some stellar RBs and I don't see it as an advantage to take them out of the playbook but every drive should not start with a handoff to KP or KJ.....JMO.   We have lots of weapons....CCL's job is to figure out how to use them.

[AUsince72 11,084]

17 minutes ago, AU64 said:

I'm not sure it is how much you throw the ball but when we throw it.     I'm guessing we could be pretty scary if we only passed 30-40 % of the time......but if we only pass primarily on 3rd down and to a lesser extent on 2nd down...and rarely on first down the offense becomes too predictable as we have been in the past couple years.    

Watching a bit of the ASU game someone posted, I note that they passed on first a number of times ...and it was not just the quick outs that we have been using....where we have mostly lost yards.  

We have some stellar RBs and I don't see it as an advantage to take them out of the playbook but every drive should not start with a handoff to KP or KJ.....JMO.   We have lots of weapons....CCL's job is to figure out how to use them.

You get both a "Like" and now a .

[DAG 33,981]

I said the other day that CCL staple on offense was throwing on 1st down. Throw the freaking ball. Even throwing to the sideline is as good as a running play.

[steeleagle 2,945]

24 minutes ago, AU64 said:

I'm not sure it is how much you throw the ball but when we throw it.     I'm guessing we could be pretty scary if we only passed 30-40 % of the time......but if we only pass primarily on 3rd down and to a lesser extent on 2nd down...and rarely on first down the offense becomes too predictable as we have been in the past couple years.    

Watching a bit of the ASU game someone posted, I note that they passed on first a number of times ...and it was not just the quick outs that we have been using....where we have mostly lost yards.  

We have some stellar RBs and I don't see it as an advantage to take them out of the playbook but every drive should not start with a handoff to KP or KJ.....JMO.   We have lots of weapons....CCL's job is to figure out how to use them.

I agree. I believe Stat showed even more...that Lindsey will throw more on first down, and not just bubble screens and simple flair routes by the RBs. And i think there will be more routes for the WRs that have specific intent to pick up good yardage.

If our OC does this, then we can be more balanced. It just seemed to be disheartening, to see the HUNH simply be on running plays, and THEN when he got stuffed, regardless of down, we HAD to pass. I don't mind seeing the hurry up, but allowing the QB to also throw within it.

Edited January 22, 2017 by steeleagle

[AUsince72 11,084]

6 minutes ago, DAG said:

I said the other day that CCL staple on offense was throwing on 1st down. Throw the freaking ball. Even throwing to the sideline is as good as a running play.

Absolutely.

I say "Death to the WR bubble-screen"!

If it ain't beyond the LoS (preferably by 5+ yds) it's hard to call it Down field Passing.

[JGLEATON 1,244]

Hopefully he brings not just more passing, but overall better designed plays (not just a dive up the middle or hail mary) that have a higher probability of success and called with less predictability...

Also maybe if Gus truly steps back,

Maybe now we will have an OC that can focus only on the O and also bring ADJUSTMENTS at half time and even during the game as the Defenses adjust.

Instead of wasting the whole third quarter and playing flat, maybe now we can anticipate Defensive adjustments at the half and come out attacking the D unpredictably, instead of playing not to loose and going too conservative in the third and fourth quarters...  

I hope they use the tight end and HB's a bit more in the passing game.

The first time we go hurry up to the line after a first down and DON'T run a dive up the middle, but fake that and go play action pass... that's gonna be a big gain and an explosive play.

Edited January 22, 2017 by JGLEATON

[80Tiger 899]

Some good info but do not agree with discounting the Clemson game. If you are going to discount the "bad game plan" then you have to throw out the "good game plan" performance. Maybe the first half of the MSU game. 

I have seen many post on here that our staff is not good at evaluating talent. I actually think our staff evaluated our QB talent correctly last year. No matter who was in playing, we did not throw long because we couldn't so we didn't try much. We need an upgrade in talent at the position. I hope JS, WB and Gatewood are it. 

I hope CCL brings the balance needed between run and pass no matter the down. I believe tha talent at AU is superior to ASU and the improvement will be seen.

[Timeslider 6 269]

Gus has publicly declared he will turn over the offense and back off, if he fails to do that now, everyone will see that he is the problem and make the necessary adjustments at the end of the year. He will no longer have anything to hide behind, either this team floats with Gus or it sinks, only time will tell. It is up to us to be patient and give him a chance to correct his past mistakes and stand behind this team.

[AUIH1 1,515]

Great stuff as usual Stat.  I am begging for Gus to prove me wrong and actually not meddle with Lindsay and let him run the O. My initial reaction was meh, but it may the best for AU in the long run, because had we hired someone like Lincoln Riley, I am afraid that may have been a wasted hire due to my concerns about Gus not meddling.  With Lindsay, who I think is a better than Lashlee, AU is in a win win situation should he prove to be a Gus puppet.

 

wde

[oracle79 3,569]

5 hours ago, StatTiger said:

Two statistical categories to watch for in 2017 is the percentage of pass plays called on first down and the percentage of pass attempts on third down. During the seven seasons of Malzahn offense at Auburn, the Tigers have passed the ball only 21 percent of the time on first down and 31 percent of their pass attempts have occurred on third down. During Chip Lindsey's three seasons as a collegiate OC, his offense has passed the ball 40 percent of the time on first down and only 25 percent of their overall passes have come on third down. Lindsey's offense passes the ball when they want to more so than when they have to. This is the exact opposite of Malzahn's offense, where the quarterback is placed into way too many obvious passing situations. During the past two seasons, over 33 percent of Auburn's pass attempts have come on third down.

@StatTiger maybe I'm misreading this and correct me if I'm wrong, but "percentage of pass plays called on a specific down" and "percent of overall passes on a certain down" are totally different types of stats.  Just curious why you use one for 1st down and the other for 3rd down.  And, do you have the percent of time we pass the ball on 2nd and 3rd downs also?  Very informative write up though.

[akillshot 294]

@StatTiger A big thank you for the analysis. I was thinking yesterday that someone should ask you to do some analysis of CCL in previous roles. You were already on it. WDE!

[jamstanjr 4]

6 hours ago, StatTiger said:

Auburn struggled inside the red zone and was extremely predictable on first down. During the past two seasons, Auburn has run the football 79% of the time inside the red zone

This has always been my challenge. We are so predictable. We have even had an opposing team defensive player say so to the press. Running up the gut every first down for the sake of "establishing the ground game" was absolutely toxic to our offensive potency. 

I thought Lashlee was able to switch this up a little with passing on first and second downs and we saw some success in this regard.

[aucom96 1,618]

I really don't like seeing "Air Raid" associated with an coach wearing Auburn colors. The SEC is too quick and athletic to rely on a horizontal passing game, so I hope that's not what we're heading towards. We have to be able to pass, but also attack vertically. Otherwise, teams will continue to stack the line and have a field day in our backfield. 

Good write-up. It should be a telling season. 

[Gowebb11 9,319]

I'm ready to see passes thrown to receivers in space instead of with 2-3 defenders draped on them. 

[GBAU83 212]

Great analysis as usual, thanks Stat

[FoundationEagle 637]

2 hours ago, aucom96 said:

I really don't like seeing "Air Raid" associated with an coach wearing Auburn colors. The SEC is too quick and athletic to rely on a horizontal passing game, so I hope that's not what we're heading towards. We have to be able to pass, but also attack vertically. Otherwise, teams will continue to stack the line and have a field day in our backfield. 

Good write-up. It should be a telling season. 

The only teams that have beaten bama the past few years were primarily teams great at passing the ball. AU is the only exception there in 2013...but even then they were beaten by the qb position (NM was one of the best decision makers in the zone read I've ever seen). So while "air raid" may not be good, being able to go pass heavy if needed could prove huge. 

[kd4au 1,145]

We need more balance and I hope CL can bring that to the offense.I don't want a total air raid but we need to pass enough to be as good at passing as we are at running.It doesn't bother me if we are still 70% run if we can pass effectively when needed,but I'm not sure you can only pass 30% of the time and still  pass well enough to be effective, you have to have enough reps for your qb and wr to get in rhythm.Any way good luck to CL and Gus hope they can put it all together.