Stats thru 4 games ‘17 and ‘18

[corchjay 5,311]

Just a couple stats to throw out thru 4 games 2017

Total points scored 122

Yards per carry 4.1

Thru 4 games 2018

Total points scored 139

Yard per carry 4.4

 

[AUght2win 6,932]

Made this point a few days ago on here. And remember, this year's team has played much better competition defensively than in 2017.

We still need to improve in a big way, but we are in better shape right now than we were at this time last year.

[abw0004 10,153]

I think the majority of the people who have been posting the last two weeks need to read these stats.  Especially the ones that have not been posting all year and just wanted to come here to complain and not contribute to the forum in any manor.

[TigerOne 1,167]

so we are comparing a terrible offense output to even worse stats?  The bar has been set really low, almost sea level.

How about just compare our stats to the opponents? Using our stats shows this years team would barely be favored over last years team.

[aujeff11 6,243]

8 hours ago, corchjay said:

Just a couple stats to throw out thru 4 games 2017

Total points scored 122

Yards per carry 4.1

Thru 4 games 2018

Total points scored 139

Yard per carry 4.4

 

We are last in tbe SEC in rushing this year. We have also benefited from great ST and defensive play leading directly to other than offensive points. Not to mention our offenses have had much shorter fields (average starting position against Arky was the 49!)

Last week we had more return yardage (INT and ST) than offensive yardage. Our offensive line is a mess, our QB is frustrated, and our backs aren’t taking over games. Can’t find any moral victories in this thread other than the fact that our ST is finally doing work. 

[corchjay 5,311]

That’s the thing I made no comment other then throwing out the stats.  Just for comparison.  

Raw numbers are raw numbers.  Take them however you want.  

Ive been mainly absent mostly from the board because of the insufferable complaints.  It’s football, enjoy it,  it’s entertainment, enjoy it.   At the end of the season evaluate where things are.  

I enjoy good football discussion and can handle complaint and thoughts of improving and looking forward to the schedule and such but reading a lot of this stuff on here is tough when nothing backs up most of the complaints 

[aujeff11 6,243]

2 minutes ago, corchjay said:

Raw numbers are raw numbers.  Take them however you want.  

Yes they are. I hope the small amount of  context that I introduced to the thread didn’t offend the “look at tbe stats” crowd. Context usually does it.

[passthebiscuits 6,889]

Just being devil's advocate---didn't the entire college football world drool over an Alabama team that won with defense and special teams? Also, JS and the OL have to play better--that's just plain and simple. There's not an easy button we can hit on that issue. 

[keesler 5,934]

26 minutes ago, corchjay said:

That’s the thing I made no comment other then throwing out the stats.  Just for comparison.  

Raw numbers are raw numbers.  Take them however you want.  

Ive been mainly absent mostly from the board because of the insufferable complaints.  It’s football, enjoy it,  it’s entertainment, enjoy it.   At the end of the season evaluate where things are.  

I enjoy good football discussion and can handle complaint and thoughts of improving and looking forward to the schedule and such but reading a lot of this stuff on here is tough when nothing backs up most of the complaints 

Aujeff offered back up.

And all I can do with the raw stats and the backup material is thank the Lawd for the ST & Defense! 

 

[Butthead 525]

First, had we won v. LSU, there would be less complaining.

Second, the offense did not look very good (early) last season either.

Third, it bothers people (me included) that we have a (supposed) offensive guru for a head coach, yet we cannot seem to put forth a great offense.

Finally, the turds have managed to put forth a great offense.  

What we have here is a charlie foxtrot of a perfect storm.

 

 

[aujeff11 6,243]

28 minutes ago, passthebiscuits said:

didn't the entire college football world drool over an Alabama team that won with defense and special teams?

That Alabama team won games with ST and defense because they allowed TF Hurts and the offense time to work things out in games. Don’t think we can be as effective as that team because their offense wasn’t nearly as deep into the muck, and we are not going to score non-offensive TDs in 9 straight games. That stat is ridiculously crazy.

[AUsince72 11,084]

Just a hunch but I think the current issue is simply based on that clown school nonsense offense that we watched last Sat night.  Many on this board expected a blowout almost if Alabama State-ish proportions based on Arky's previous results and when the offense looked weird, incoherent, vanilla and lots of visual frustration from CCL and even Stids, all following a week where two starters quit the team due to underutilization...then watching CKS's press conference where he was either angry or really had to go to the bathroom, many of us are a bit panicky.  It was a weird week!

That can be fixed quickly in the next couple weeks or exacerbated this week, we'll see.  But they showed so much promise in the Washington game, kept the train rolling week two, and weren't TOO bad against LSU (really should have won), the Arky showing was eerily reminiscent of #ButGus, so like Jarrett Stidham, we're gun shy.

[McLoofus 35,182]

Auburn @ Mizzou Week 4 2017
482 total yards
51 points scored, offense responsible for all 51, 3 turnovers recovered
Stidham 13/17 218 yds 1 TD
Kam Martin 9 carries for 74 yds 
Kerryon Johnson 18 carries for 48 yds and 5 TDs
Nate Craig-Myers 2 catches for 61 yds and 1 TD

Auburn vs Arkansas Week 4 2018
290 total yards
34 points scored, offense responsible for only 27, 2 turnovers recovered
Stidham 15/22 134 yds 0 TD
Kam Martin 8 carries for 39 yds
Boobee Whitlow 13 carries for 49 yds and 2 TDs
Nate Craig-Myers off team

Our offensive production in week 4 of this year with a 2nd-year OC and starter at QB  was barely over half of what it was in week 4 of last year with a 1st year starter and OC. Against quite possibly a weaker opponent and at home vs on the road. 

 

[BJCrawford 1,568]

I guess it’s safe to say the stats can be configured to make anyone’s point.?

[I_M4_AU 8,600]

I love statistics, they’re great to see what happened to determine how to improve a certain aspect of your profession whether it’s football or not.  They can also be used to show employees what to look for while they perform their duties to prevent an incident that could be an issue.  Stats are not great in predicting the future, if so we all could make a killing in the market.  It’s a tool to evaluate what will happen, but is not fool proof. 

To compare last year’s team, when we had an experienced OL and RBs, to this year’s team is just folly.  The expression “statics are for losers” come to mind.  In the spring, it was mentioned by some posters, the concern for our run game for this season.  It was “PROVEN” by some posters by prior statics that there should not be a concern.  Hmmmm.

Last year you could prove statistically, that after the LSU game the season improved dramatically.  This year could be the same, but we won’t know until after the season.  Let is play out, then the sunshine pumpers can either pound their chest or disappear, depending upon how the year turns out.  Same for the Gus bashers. 

Remember, the eye test is still a big part of determining the CFP final four.  The teams that do not get in will try to statically prove they should have gotten in.  Those are the losers.  Our eye test, right now, does not look good.  I hope it improves, but I can’t statistically prove that it will.

Just my opinion, I could be wrong.  Fire away.

[AUFriction 1,179]

19 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

Auburn @ Mizzou Week 4 2017
482 total yards
51 points scored, offense responsible for all 51, 3 turnovers recovered
Stidham 13/17 218 yds 1 TD
Kam Martin 9 carries for 74 yds 
Kerryon Johnson 18 carries for 48 yds and 5 TDs
Nate Craig-Myers 2 catches for 61 yds and 1 TD

Auburn vs Arkansas Week 4 2018
290 total yards
34 points scored, offense responsible for only 27, 2 turnovers recovered
Stidham 15/22 134 yds 0 TD
Kam Martin 8 carries for 39 yds
Boobee Whitlow 13 carries for 49 yds and 2 TDs
Nate Craig-Myers off team

Our offensive production in week 4 of this year with a 2nd-year OC and starter at QB  was barely over half of what it was in week 4 of last year with a 1st year starter and OC. Against quite possibly a weaker opponent and at home vs on the road. 

 

As a data analyst, I have a saying. “Numbers don’t lie, but, I’d misinterpreted, can hide the truth.”

This is a good example of that. Arkansas has looked okay at times on defense. The high points against numbers are primarily due to turnovers and bad return coverage. Arkansas is not really a good defense, but they are far from the worst. It’s their offense that’s making them terrible. That Mizzou defense last year, however, was probably one of the worst in SEC history.

So where is the problem? You are comparing stats from teams with completely different problems. 

I devoted an entire thread to this already, so I’ll be brief. People are making way too much out of last week. People will probably make too much out of this week as well. I’m not going to hit any panick buttons until the Moo State game. If we look terrible offensively in that game (or lose that game), I’ll be on the freakout bandwagon. Until then, I’m giving the coaches time.

[KolchakAU85 430]

1 hour ago, passthebiscuits said:

Just being devil's advocate---didn't the entire college football world drool over an Alabama team that won with defense and special teams?

That's true.  But that team was coached by someone who knew what they were doing from week to week, opponent to opponent, even under pressure.

[aujeff11 6,243]

2 minutes ago, AUFriction said:

I devoted an entire thread to this already

I know. The irony in AUfriction talking about brakes was hilarious.

[AUFriction 1,179]

14 minutes ago, I_M4_AU said:

I love statistics, they’re great to see what happened to determine how to improve a certain aspect of your profession whether it’s football or not.  They can also be used to show employees what to look for while they perform their duties to prevent an incident that could be an issue.  Stats are not great in predicting the future, if so we all could make a killing in the market.  It’s a tool to evaluate what will happen, but is not fool proof. 

To compare last year’s team, when we had an experienced OL and RBs, to this year’s team is just folly.  The expression “statics are for losers” come to mind.  In the spring, it was mentioned by some posters, the concern for our run game for this season.  It was “PROVEN” by some posters by prior statics that there should not be a concern.  Hmmmm.

Last year you could prove statistically, that after the LSU game the season improved dramatically.  This year could be the same, but we won’t know until after the season.  Let is play out, then the sunshine pumpers can either pound their chest or disappear, depending upon how the year turns out.  Same for the Gus bashers. 

Remember, the eye test is still a big part of determining the CFP final four.  The teams that do not get in will try to statically prove they should have gotten in.  Those are the losers.  Our eye test, right now, does not look good.  I hope it improves, but I can’t statistically prove that it will.

Just my opinion, I could be wrong.  Fire away.

Stats can absolutely be projective. However, the kind of discussion we have on this forum doesn’t really yield projective value. There are inferential analyses designed to project forward, but they are objective analyses rather than subjective data interpretation. Put another way, looking at stat lines for our team the way we do on this forum really doesn’t tell us much aside from that we have underperformed up to this point. Even this last point is somewhat subjective as “underperformance” is in part dependent on fan expectations.

[keesler 5,934]

1 hour ago, AUsince72 said:

Just a hunch but I think the current issue is simply based on that clown school nonsense offense that we watched last Sat night.  Many on this board expected a blowout almost if Alabama State-ish proportions based on Arky's previous results and when the offense looked weird, incoherent, vanilla and lots of visual frustration from CCL and even Stids, all following a week where two starters quit the team due to underutilization...then watching CKS's press conference where he was either angry or really had to go to the bathroom, many of us are a bit panicky.  It was a weird week!

That can be fixed quickly in the next couple weeks or exacerbated this week, we'll see.  But they showed so much promise in the Washington game, kept the train rolling week two, and weren't TOO bad against LSU (really should have won), the Arky showing was eerily reminiscent of #ButGus, so like Jarrett Stidham, we're gun shy.

A voice of reason!

We are too intimate with the day to day activities, in's and out's, every player/coach interaction and we over analyze and often times over react, become too sensitive because it's "our" team.  I live on this board, I love it and the Mods do a bang up job on here. 

As fans, we've been "burned" so many times and it's been a roller coaster of a program for a long stretch - we're gun shy for a reason. We wanted to see immediate success and a solid core foundation in the offense with our 2nd yr QB & OC - we expected things to run much smoother and much better with Grimes driving the oline.  It's a rough start so far, but not a disaster of a situation that can't be fixed with a cupcake game in 2 days and a huge chance to clean up some issues, they can still contend for the championship.

[I_M4_AU 8,600]

28 minutes ago, AUFriction said:

Stats can absolutely be projective. However, the kind of discussion we have on this forum doesn’t really yield projective value. There are inferential analyses designed to project forward, but they are objective analyses rather than subjective data interpretation. Put another way, looking at stat lines for our team the way we do on this forum really doesn’t tell us much aside from that we have underperformed up to this point. Even this last point is somewhat subjective as “underperformance” is in part dependent on fan expectations.

The discussion on this forum use projective value all the time.  That’s my point.  We, as posters, use stats to “prove” our point as facts.  We, as Auburn fans, really can only wait until to see the results of the season to try to understand how it unfolds, those of us that are not stat analysts.

[keesler 5,934]

54 minutes ago, AUFriction said:

As a data analyst, I have a saying. “Numbers don’t lie, but, I’d misinterpreted, can hide the truth.”

 

My niece is in grad school at UAB (first semester) she's taking Biological Statistics.......what a bitch of a class.

[McLoofus 35,182]

11 minutes ago, keesler said:

My niece is in grad school at UAB (first semester) she's taking Biological Statistics.......what a bitch of a class.

Go Blazers! Bham's a pretty fun town to be in these days.

But maybe not if you're in bio stats (do kids call it that? i would) all the time. 

[aubaseball 2,739]

2 hours ago, McLoofus said:

Auburn @ Mizzou Week 4 2017
482 total yards
51 points scored, offense responsible for all 51, 3 turnovers recovered
Stidham 13/17 218 yds 1 TD
Kam Martin 9 carries for 74 yds 
Kerryon Johnson 18 carries for 48 yds and 5 TDs
Nate Craig-Myers 2 catches for 61 yds and 1 TD

Auburn vs Arkansas Week 4 2018
290 total yards
34 points scored, offense responsible for only 27, 2 turnovers recovered
Stidham 15/22 134 yds 0 TD
Kam Martin 8 carries for 39 yds
Boobee Whitlow 13 carries for 49 yds and 2 TDs
Nate Craig-Myers off team

Our offensive production in week 4 of this year with a 2nd-year OC and starter at QB  was barely over half of what it was in week 4 of last year with a 1st year starter and OC. Against quite possibly a weaker opponent and at home vs on the road. 

 

I would even say the offense only scored 7 points.  10 by defense and the rest special teams.  

[ertrader 209]

2 hours ago, McLoofus said:

Auburn @ Mizzou Week 4 2017
482 total yards
51 points scored, offense responsible for all 51, 3 turnovers recovered
Stidham 13/17 218 yds 1 TD
Kam Martin 9 carries for 74 yds 
Kerryon Johnson 18 carries for 48 yds and 5 TDs
Nate Craig-Myers 2 catches for 61 yds and 1 TD

Auburn vs Arkansas Week 4 2018
290 total yards
34 points scored, offense responsible for only 27, 2 turnovers recovered
Stidham 15/22 134 yds 0 TD
Kam Martin 8 carries for 39 yds
Boobee Whitlow 13 carries for 49 yds and 2 TDs
Nate Craig-Myers off team

Our offensive production in week 4 of this year with a 2nd-year OC and starter at QB  was barely over half of what it was in week 4 of last year with a 1st year starter and OC. Against quite possibly a weaker opponent and at home vs on the road. 

 

Just nitpicking but it was Arkansas that had 290 total yards of offense. We only had 225.