At Alabama, some thoughts

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

Can we get this one on the road? If we do I think you will see the Auburn hype train start to pick up real steam from the casual observer. 

 

Bama can score and they play well at home, but Auburn is the better team. 

Bama can shoot the ball, one of the top scoring offenses in the game and in the league. They arent great at moving the ball though and rely a lot on possessions with 0 or no passes. I couldn't find a stat on it easily, but when I have watched them play, I recall a lot of possessions where the guards never give up the rock. This will put a lot of pressure on Aden, Tre, Jones and KD to force them to pass the ball. Sears is the guy. You know that guy, he's that guy. Need a bucket, need a three, need a drive, need to create, yeah he's that guy. Super tough player, smart player, plainly put, he's a problem. If we need must choose his weakness, it is that he is a little loose with the ball. He gets 3.8 assists a game to 2.33 turnovers. Combine that with him playing 30+ minutes a night and I think the formula to deal with him is to try and wear him down. Get up in him high and make him work all game long. I have not seen him have to work a lot with out the ball and don't think their group set up for him to work off the ball consistently. Estrada is a capable guard who can set up others at nearly 4 assits per game, but he also leads them in turnovers at 2.4 per. As a team they average 15 assist to 12 turnovers and if we want to get this one on the road, we need to force turnovers. We are top 50 at forcing 14 turnovers per game and we are ELITE at only allowing 0.681 assist/turnover (6th) in the country. I like the way we match up in this area, despite Sears being the best guard, maybe player, on the floor tomorrow night. 

Another area of interest to watch is fouls and blocked shots. Alabama starts a small ball lineup and brings some size off the bench, but do they have anyone that can guard Broome? Can our bigs contest shots without getting in foul trouble (on the road)? With the likely production from Sears, we will need to win the points in the paint to win this game on the road. Broome, Williams, Cardwell are all experienced and ready for this, is Chaney? He has been an up and down guy recently. Is he ready for the road in this rivalry and able to produce? I expect the whistle to force him to get some minutes, and I am concerned that he is not yet ready for it. If he steps up and gives us quality minutes it will be a huge factor in the game that won't show up on the stat sheet. 

Is Aden ready to face a guard like Sears? I don't think so. I think we need a big defensive game from Donaldson, or maybe Pearl puts Jones on Sears and Aden guards the 2 spot more. Will be interested to see how CBP rotates fresh guys on Sears throughout the night. One guy I look for to have big game if we want the win is CBM. His match up with Griffen will be one to watch, who gets the best of that one. CBM seems to be ready for the moment, but we will find out soon enough. 

CBP will have to make some adjustments to the rotations I expect. Bama plays some small lineups and if Nelson is giving Broome trouble on the perimeter, what is our adjustment? Can we punish Nelson in the paint on the other end and force him to play defense in the post? 

I feel like our guards are ready for the challenge. I feel like our depth is a major factor in this one. I think we get a close one on the road. Something like 78-75 good guys. Broome with a big game, Donaldson shows his value, and Jones steps up defensively. 

Will post more in this thread as the game approaches hopefully ...

War Eagle!!!!

[tigeraddikt 1,610]

5 minutes ago, JwgreDeux said:

Can we get this one on the road? If we do I think you will see the Auburn hype train start to pick up real steam from the casual observer. 

 

Bama can score and they play well at home, but Auburn is the better team. 

Bama can shoot the ball, one of the top scoring offenses in the game and in the league. They arent great at moving the ball though and rely a lot on possessions with 0 or no passes. I couldn't find a stat on it easily, but when I have watched them play, I recall a lot of possessions where the guards never give up the rock. This will put a lot of pressure on Aden, Tre, Jones and KD to force them to pass the ball. Sears is the guy. You know that guy, he's that guy. Need a bucket, need a three, need a drive, need to create, yeah he's that guy. Super tough player, smart player, plainly put, he's a problem. If we need must choose his weakness, it is that he is a little loose with the ball. He gets 3.8 assists a game to 2.33 turnovers. Combine that with him playing 30+ minutes a night and I think the formula to deal with him is to try and wear him down. Get up in him high and make him work all game long. I have not seen him have to work a lot with out the ball and don't think their group set up for him to work off the ball consistently. Estrada is a capable guard who can set up others at nearly 4 assits per game, but he also leads them in turnovers at 2.4 per. As a team they average 15 assist to 12 turnovers and if we want to get this one on the road, we need to force turnovers. We are top 50 at forcing 14 turnovers per game and we are ELITE at only allowing 0.681 assist/turnover (6th) in the country. I like the way we match up in this area, despite Sears being the best guard, maybe player, on the floor tomorrow night. 

Another area of interest to watch is fouls and blocked shots. Alabama starts a small ball lineup and brings some size off the bench, but do they have anyone that can guard Broome? Can our bigs contest shots without getting in foul trouble (on the road)? With the likely production from Sears, we will need to win the points in the paint to win this game on the road. Broome, Williams, Cardwell are all experienced and ready for this, is Chaney? He has been an up and down guy recently. Is he ready for the road in this rivalry and able to produce? I expect the whistle to force him to get some minutes, and I am concerned that he is not yet ready for it. If he steps up and gives us quality minutes it will be a huge factor in the game that won't show up on the stat sheet. 

Is Aden ready to face a guard like Sears? I don't think so. I think we need a big defensive game from Donaldson, or maybe Pearl puts Jones on Sears and Aden guards the 2 spot more. Will be interested to see how CBP rotates fresh guys on Sears throughout the night. One guy I look for to have big game if we want the win is CBM. His match up with Griffen will be one to watch, who gets the best of that one. CBM seems to be ready for the moment, but we will find out soon enough. 

CBP will have to make some adjustments to the rotations I expect. Bama plays some small lineups and if Nelson is giving Broome trouble on the perimeter, what is our adjustment? Can we punish Nelson in the paint on the other end and force him to play defense in the post? 

I feel like our guards are ready for the challenge. I feel like our depth is a major factor in this one. I think we get a close one on the road. Something like 78-75 good guys. Broome with a big game, Donaldson shows his value, and Jones steps up defensively. 

Will post more in this thread as the game approaches hopefully ...

War Eagle!!!!

Great analysis, agree completely. The one thing that we as fans have to emotionally prepare for is the fact that Bama is absolutely gonna get the whistles tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised if they have double or more our FT attempts with 10 minutes to go. Can AU overcome that? I think so, but gonna be some bi**hing and complaining on the game thread about it for sure!! 

[BustemBigBlue 176]

Unless Alabama has one of those spectacular nights shooting the 3 ball (which is possible) I see us winning this one going away. I think we are much better inside and have way more ways to score and play much better defense than they do. 

[Golden Eagle 368]

ESPN metrics picking Bama...

https://www.si.com/college/auburn/basketball/espns-metrics-believe-auburn-basketball-will-lose-to-alabama

Hope they're WRONG.  I want Auburn to beat everybody, of course, but especially Bama.

[toddc 13,194]

Why Monday's practice was Auburn's most intense of the season

“That was one of the most serious practices I've had in a while, with the coaches being more locked in than the players."

85 mins

Auburn’s coaches were already up in arms after one play.

Walk-on point guard Jalen Harper, playing the role of Alabama’s Mark Sears on scout team, raced past the Tigers and got all the way to the basket for a layup. Preparing for the blistering pace of the Crimson Tide’s offense, Auburn hammered transition drills Monday, and Harper was able to score after the Tigers made a basket, attempting to simulate how Alabama pushes the ball even on a routine inbounds pass.

“(Bruce Pearl) is already mad, and practice just started,” fifth-year senior forward Jaylin Williams said.

No. 8 Auburn is 5-0 in the SEC, the only undefeated team left in league play, and is riding an 11-game winning streak. But it knows this week brings a tremendous challenge it hasn’t had a taste for yet. The Tigers not only head to face rival Alabama (12-6, 4-1 SEC) on the road Wednesday, but also play a tricky road game at Mississippi State on Saturday. Both will be Quadrant 1 opportunities — of which Auburn doesn’t have a win yet on the season for its NCAA tournament resume.

So Pearl and his staff came to practice Monday with a fearsome plan to attempt to get the Tigers in an intense mindset for a road trip that will start against an Alabama team that runs with a blazing pace offensively under Nate Oats.

“Yesterday was probably one of our hardest practices since June,” Williams said. “We really needed it. … Scout team did a really good job of pushing the ball in fastbreak — we were working on a lot of fastbreak stuff because that's where they're really good. They like to get out and play and get a shot off within 12 seconds of the shot clock.”

Alabama doesn’t just push the basketball, it’s efficient in doing so, currently with KenPom’s No. 1 offensive efficiency rating in the country, along with the nation’s No. 3 scoring offense. 

The catalyst is Sears, an SEC Player of the Year candidate at point guard who’s averaging 19.2 points per game, plus 3.6 assists. Auburn did its best to replicate his high-octane orchestration of Alabama’s offense, but as Pearl said Tuesday, no amount of practice can adequately recreate Oats’ offense. His team will have to lock into the defensive scouting report and adjust as the game progresses Wednesday night (6:30 p.m. CST, ESPN).

“Alabama is one of the fastest teams we’re going to play all season — they’re the fastest team we played last season,” center Dylan Cardwell said. “We struggled with that in transition. Really different perspective from the coaches as well with it being intense: an hour-long conversation before the film session just to make sure we’re kinda locked in to what we need to do in order to handle business for ourselves in the future, but also for the game.”

Yes, Alabama is a load to prepare for as a defense. But as Cardwell said, Monday’s intense practice was also about more than just one single game. The Tigers know they’ve set themselves up for SEC championship contention in the early stages of the conference slate. And now, with six of their next eight games currently rated as Quad 1 opportunities, they know push is about to come to shove.

The Tigers believe they have a special team, so they’re embracing that pressure from the coaching staff — and from the leaders on the team.

“That was one of the most serious practices I've had in a while, with the coaches being more locked in than the players,” Williams said. “The coaches really worked us up to make us realize, OK, we have a chance to do something special if we win these two games this week. I won't say it's a guaranteed championship in the regular season, but it's going to help a lot if we finish these two games out with a dub. The coaches are trying to get that message out to us.”

Auburn was swept in the two regular-season meetings against Alabama last season, including a trip to Tuscaloosa in which the Tigers had a 17-point lead with 10:27 remaining. Alabama stormed all the way back, took the game to overtime and pulled out a win to clinch the SEC regular-season championship, as Auburn had three different players foul out in overtime.

Williams said that result certainly stuck with the Tigers, and they’re looking forward to the opportunity to build a lead on the road again — because this time, he doesn’t think this team would let it slip.

“That team, we didn’t stick together,” Williams said. “So I think this team, if we get to that point, I feel like it’s going to be over with. But we know how good of a team Alabama is so we still got to respect them in a way that we just can’t go out there and play like we’re the No. 8 team in the country.”

[Cardin Drake 1,829]

We are a 2.5 point dog in Vegas. That translates to winning 43% of the time, roughly.  We will see. Need this win.

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,673]

I would think they put Griffen on Sears, both because of his defensive excellence and to give Sears a rest. I would think they MAY hide him on CMo since he doesn't really do much that's a threat offensively. As I understand, they stagger Sears with the second unit quite a bit, so hopefully one of the Tre/KD/CBM trio can really make him work. The logic of wanting to tire him out is pretty airtight though. I feel like Tenn did a wonderful job of weighing down on him, kinda like Fury-Wilder

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,673]

2 hours ago, JwgreDeux said:

Is Aden ready to face a guard like Sears? I don't think so. I think we need a big defensive game from Donaldson, or maybe Pearl puts Jones on Sears and Aden guards the 2 spot more.

This is something that I think was lost when guys were arguing with me on guard stable vs guard stable. Realistically, Aden is probably the worst guard defensively out of their starting 3 and any of our primary guards. When comparing the starters, it's worth mentioning there are multiple guys they could theoretically (I say this bc it's some chance we get the active Denver that does more than stand on the perimeter) hide Sears on, and there's literally none that we can hide Aden on. He's just going to have buckle up and clamp up or get beat. And with the nature of their offense, we'll get massacred if we have to keep providing help for anyone who gets beat, not just him. They've done damage to us with that drive and kick game before. 

[WillMunny 1,378]

Gonna be a tough few days for our guys.  At Alabama, then travel directly to Moo State.

I'd love to see us take both these games.

[JDUBB4AU 5,121]

Play fast and physical. To me the free throw line is key. If we get there we have to convert.  Make routines. The 3 ball and free throws will win this for AU. Unfortunately 2 things AU is not exceptional at. 

[SumterAubie 3,031]

4 hours ago, BustemBigBlue said:

Unless Alabama has one of those spectacular nights shooting the 3 ball (which is possible) I see us winning this one going away. I think we are much better inside and have way more ways to score and play much better defense than they do. 

[OfficiatingExpert 126]

I agree about Tre Donaldson being the difference maker. I think he’s going to have a big game tomorrow night. 

[OfficiatingExpert 126]

4 hours ago, WillMunny said:

Gonna be a tough few days for our guys.  At Alabama, then travel directly to Moo State.

I'd love to see us take both these games.

Both are Quad 1 opportunities

[cole256 17,084]

I won't go on and on and since I'm a little biased I won't even post so I don't argue, but I will say I think we win because of depth

[Cardin Drake 1,829]

If only somebody had told us that Sears guy was good when we were busy not recruiting him.......🙂

[roe4christ 940]

Put pressure on their guards making it hard for them to dribble or advance the ball - They are prone to high turnovers.

We are one of the best in 3pt field goal defense.  They rely on 3pt baskets.  Make it tough.  Hand in the face without fouling.

Be physical, if that's possible without getting into foul trouble.  It is the primary reason Tennessee won by the margin they did.  They made things very uncomforable, which Bama could not handle. We are the deepest team in the league, but we don't want to put our guys in foul trouble too early, especially Broome and Williams.

Limit long droughts without baskets.

Make free throws.  Can't give away points from the line.

 

[AURex 2,000]

Bama is now a 3.5 betting favorite.

Tennessee had the perfect recipe. Get back on defense and stop their effort to get to the goal unhindered. Play tough perimeter defense. Force turnovers. Bama had a huge amount of turnovers against UT.

But that was Bama on the road. This will be Bama at home. And you can be certain -- they want it as bad as we do.

 

[BustemBigBlue 176]

If Clemson can go there and get a win so can we. I’m remaining optimistic about our chances. 

[KTATLEagles 15]

13 hours ago, JDUBB4AU said:

Play fast and physical. To me the free throw line is key. If we get there we have to convert.  Make routines. The 3 ball and free throws will win this for AU. Unfortunately 2 things AU is not exceptional at. 

AU has the 4th best FT shooting % in the SEC this year. Bama is 1 st

This is the best FT shooting team AU has had in years. 
 

Refs kept bama in the game last year. We need to be aggressive yet be smart with fouls 

[AUGoo 2,664]

Refs gonna decide this game. If we are allowed to play, we win.

Refs strangle us like last year, we lose.

[AUGoo 2,664]

Don’t think we get a fair shot in Ttown.

[JwgreDeux 1,279]

Obviously, the way that our guards defend Sears will be a major factor, but with Broome being in the top five player of the year rankings on KenPom, and Bama‘s lack of size, for us to win this game we’re gonna need a dominate in the paint.

[KillenTime 127]

17 hours ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

I would think they put Griffen on Sears, both because of his defensive excellence and to give Sears a rest. I would think they MAY hide him on CMo since he doesn't really do much that's a threat offensively. As I understand, they stagger Sears with the second unit quite a bit, so hopefully one of the Tre/KD/CBM trio can really make him work. The logic of wanting to tire him out is pretty airtight though. I feel like Tenn did a wonderful job of weighing down on him, kinda like Fury-Wilder

you think they put Griffen on Sears?  What does that even mean?  Hide him on CMO?  For the whole 4 minutes CMO plays?  Hope that is their plan.  He would be out there hunting CMO for the whole game.  

[KillenTime 127]

17 hours ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

This is something that I think was lost when guys were arguing with me on guard stable vs guard stable. Realistically, Aden is probably the worst guard defensively out of their starting 3 and any of our primary guards. When comparing the starters, it's worth mentioning there are multiple guys they could theoretically (I say this bc it's some chance we get the active Denver that does more than stand on the perimeter) hide Sears on, and there's literally none that we can hide Aden on. He's just going to have buckle up and clamp up or get beat. And with the nature of their offense, we'll get massacred if we have to keep providing help for anyone who gets beat, not just him. They've done damage to us with that drive and kick game before. 

I think Donaldson will see his most playing time of the year if the game remains close.  If Aden isn't hitting shots to keep it close early and is getting blown by, like I expect, he won't be on the court long this game.  If he is getting beat on defense but knocking down a few shots, he will stay in.  If it looks like bama may pull away because he can't defend, he will be on the pine.  I fully expect to see a lot of Denver and Donaldson using their physicality to disrupt the guards in this game.  KD will add pressure for them on the defensive end.  He isn't easy to stay in front of either.  He is definitely a mismatch for Sears if we get that match up after a switch on defense (not necessarily his quickness but his leaping ability at the rim gives KD the advantage here).  

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,673]

15 minutes ago, KillenTime said:

you think they put Griffen on Sears?  What does that even mean?  Hide him on CMO?  For the whole 4 minutes CMO plays?  Hope that is their plan.  He would be out there hunting CMO for the whole game.  

Griffin on Aden, my b. 

CMo has played 10-15 minutes every SEC game. Sears averages 30.2 currently. If you get the typical Chris performance, you’re cumulatively giving Mark a good amount of rest with having him defend Chris.