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Odds to win the SEC (Week 5)

RunInRed

By RunInRed
in AU Football Forum

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icanthearyou Founding Father

icanthearyou 4,463

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10 minutes ago, lionheartkc said:

So, basically, A&M has to beat bama, but lose to Tennessee and Ole Miss, and we need to win out.  Stranger things have happened.

Not sure that is correct.  I don't think it matters whether or not they beat bama.  We need them to lose two conference games if we win out.

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lionheartkc Founding Father

lionheartkc 6,150

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4 minutes ago, icanthearyou said:

Not sure that is correct.  I don't think it matters whether or not they beat bama.  We need them to lose two conference games if we win out.

You're right... if we win out, bama only needs to lose to us.  I was thinking everyone needed to lose 2.

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mcgufcm Founding Father

mcgufcm 4,107

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Bama losing two is irrelevant if we win out. If both teams won out until the Iron Bowl AND A&M lost one other (non-Bama) game, the Iron Bowl would be winner take all. Assuming we won, both teams would finish 7-1 with us owning the tiebreaker.

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lca408 Mentor

lca408 366

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Pretty sure that's going to happen anyway with A&M losing two down the stretch. Bammer is unlikely to lose more than 1 game before the Iron Bowl and I'd put money on that potential loss being in Knoxville more than in Tuscaloosa hosting A&M. I figure if we do find a way to win out, we'd likely still be in control of our own destiny by the time we head to Tuscaloosa, just like in 2013. That's one hell of a big IF though and right now, I'm not sure even the most blinded sunshine pumper would be comfortable making that pick.

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ToraGirl Founding Father

ToraGirl 5,498

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5 hours ago, api1957 said:

Image result for so you're saying there's a chance gif

That is EXACTLY what I envisioned before scrolling to see your post!  Well done!

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SphyNxXx Proficient

SphyNxXx 96

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43 minutes ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

If by some miracle, A&M lost 2 games, and we had the opportunity to hand Alabama it's first L of the year to make Atlanta, that'd be pretty damn incredible I'd think

Under Sumlin, A&M is usually good for a couple late season drops.

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Rednilla Founding Father

Rednilla 5,394

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1 hour ago, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

If by some miracle, A&M lost 2 games, and we had the opportunity to hand Alabama it's first L of the year to make Atlanta, that'd be pretty damn incredible I'd think

Would indeed be pretty danged awesome, if you ask me...that would put us center stage vs. (probably) Tennessee for a shot at the playoffs.

Hey, it could happen. The offense has improved from each Power 5 opponent to the next thus far, so I'm not putting it past them, but they have to find a way to consistently punch the ball into the end zone, as well as establishing a reliable spark plug to produce big plays. And it could come from a number of places. Much as I love the way Sean White has been leading the team, a part of me wants to see Woody Barrett step to the plate now and start producing. I can only imagine the shiver running down the spine of the college football world if Gus were to find a dual threat QB who could run his offense, considering the defense we're putting on the field this year...

But yeah, stepping away from fantasy island, I don't think it's at all ridiculous to think we could be 9-3 at the end of the season, so long as the offense solves its red zone issues. We moved the ball well against a quality defense last Saturday, and if we had been near the national average for RZ TD efficiency, we would have scored four TDs; if we keep the same RZ scoring percentage, that add two field goals (one from inside the RZ, one from outside), which is 34 points. If the offense produces 34 points in every game for the rest of the season, it's hard for me to imagine losing more than two more games. Now, it's going to take some major strides from the offensive line before I believe we have a somewhat reasonable shot at upsetting Bama in T-town, and Ole Miss in Oxford is looking mighty tough at the moment, as well, but IF the offense figures out the red zone, I think 8-4 is conservative.

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keesler Founding Father

keesler 5,928

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2 hours ago, WDE Matty said:

Never Say never! Why is Arkansas ' chances so low? They only lost 1 game ? And they're regular non conference is SC? 

Yeah, I don't understand that either.  But the next month of football will sort out both divisions pretty well.  At this point, it looks like we have just as much of a chance to win the West as Mizzou has of winning the East. 

There are only 3 SEC teams with 4-0 records right now, a ton of 2-2's and I haven't seen a really solid/well rounded team yet.  So every team will get better and make strides over the next few weeks, including AU.

 

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aucanucktiger Founding Father

aucanucktiger 1,796

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ESPN being the primary source, I'll go out on a limb and guess there's a LOT of subjective input behind these current predictions (e.g. Danny Kennel thinks _____).

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mcgufcm Founding Father

mcgufcm 4,107

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I think the projection/percentages are based solely on statistical odds of winning each game, which is likely based on ESPN's FPI formula + calculations for home/away/neutral sites. There's no way they're giving percentages based on commentary.

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JwgreDeux Founding Father

JwgreDeux 1,279

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If A&M were to lose to Bama and us beat Bama would'nt there be a three way tie in the West. With all having the same conference and divisional record I believe the tie breaker would come down to the combined conference record of each teams non-divisional opponents. I have projected those records out and here are the results: 

A&M plays South Carolina and Tenn with a projected combined conference record of 7-9

Bama plays Kentucky and Tenn with a projected combined conference record of 7-9

We play Vandy and Georgia with a projected combined conference record of 6-10

That has Tenn winning the East with their only losses to A&M and Bama, so we need to route for Vandy and Georgia in addition to our Tigers. 

 

PS. you will notice that Bama and A&M are still tied, their tie would then be broken by head to head and Bama would go to the SEC title game in this huge hypothetical. 

Although this was strangely fun, there is a lot of ball left to be played. Let's beat ULM this weekend and see where this season goes. 

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lionheartkc Founding Father

lionheartkc 6,150

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1 hour ago, AUpreacherman22 said:

Exactly!  A&M losing two is very likely.  They are still A&M.  

Us winning out is where we need the miracle.

Good thing Auburn specializes in miracles in our great seasons.

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tigerbrotha12 Founding Father

tigerbrotha12 2,362

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Currently, if we win out, and A&M loses 2 SEC games, we win the west. A&M still has to play Bama, Ole Miss, LSU, Tennessee, and a few others. If we get hot, there's definitely a possibility of a west championship. Let's see what happens 

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Charhair Mentor

Charhair 345

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11 hours ago, JwgreDeux said:

If A&M were to lose to Bama and us beat Bama would'nt there be a three way tie in the West. With all having the same conference and divisional record I believe the tie breaker would come down to the combined conference record of each teams non-divisional opponents. I have projected those records out and here are the results: 

A&M plays South Carolina and Tenn with a projected combined conference record of 7-9

Bama plays Kentucky and Tenn with a projected combined conference record of 7-9

We play Vandy and Georgia with a projected combined conference record of 6-10

That has Tenn winning the East with their only losses to A&M and Bama, so we need to route for Vandy and Georgia in addition to our Tigers. 

 

PS. you will notice that Bama and A&M are still tied, their tie would then be broken by head to head and Bama would go to the SEC title game in this huge hypothetical. 

Although this was strangely fun, there is a lot of ball left to be played. Let's beat ULM this weekend and see where this season goes. 

it would be a fun scenerio, especially if we could come out on top of it. It would also be interesting to see if a one loss SEC team who doesn't make it to the SEC championship could still get a playoff bid. I don't know if that's possible in the play off system  

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