AU vs OU Score Prediction

[AUEngineer2016 407]

Couldn't focus at work this morning, so I decided to do something extremely dangerous, which is make my prediction based on statistics from 2018. 

Methodology: I used information from sports-reference.com and plotted Oregon's offensive performance against several commonalities between games, which I then used to predict their offensive performance against Auburn based on Auburn's 2018 defensive statistics.

Oregon 2018 Game Log: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/oregon/2018/gamelog/

Defensive Rankings - 2018: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2018-team-defense.html (in all cases, Yards were used to determine ranking. FCS school(s) were given a 131 ranking)

Commonality #1 - Game Location

Note #1: The only "Neutral Site" game from last year was their bowl game against Michigan State, so this is an extremely limited sample size.

Note #2: All Away games were against P5 competition, whereas the Home games were a mixture of P5, G5, and FCS. 

Conclusion: When playing away from Autzen Stadium, Oregon averaged 1.8 fewer touchdowns, 1.4 fewer yards/pass, and 0.2 fewer yards/rush. This indicates that their passing attack was influenced more by the game location than their rushing attack.

Commonality #2 - Competition Level

Note: Oregon only played 1 FCS team last year, which again is an extremely limited data set.

Conclusion: Oregon's passing attack showed a slight dip in yards/pass when facing P5 competition, however their Passing TD's/game showed a much larger dip. Again, this chart indicates that their rushing attack was consistent regardless of P5/G5 level.

Predictions

I am predicting that Oregon goes 23/37 passing for 240.5 yards and 1.8 TDs and rushes the ball 28 times for 126 yards, averaging 4.5 yards per rush with 1.8 TDs. These values are based on Auburn's defensive rankings from 2018 (58th in pass defense, 32nd in rush defense). 

This would give Oregon 25.2 points. Add in 0.5 FGs (they went 6/11 last year in 13 games) and I'm predicting that they will score 26.7 points. 

 

Final Score Prediction: 35-27 Auburn

[japantiger 4,051]

2 hours ago, TigerFanAU said:

I believe we'll own the trenches on both sides of the ball. Justin Herbert will get his yards between the 20's, but I think Oregon will have a hard time scoring. We should be able to over power them.

 

35-13 AU

Hope you're right.    I agree that we "should" own the line on both sides of the ball.

[AUsince72 11,084]

1 hour ago, AUEngineer2016 said:

Couldn't focus at work this morning, so I decided to do something extremely dangerous, which is make my prediction based on statistics from 2018. 

Methodology: I used information from sports-reference.com and plotted Oregon's offensive performance against several commonalities between games, which I then used to predict their offensive performance against Auburn based on Auburn's 2018 defensive statistics.

Oregon 2018 Game Log: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/oregon/2018/gamelog/

Defensive Rankings - 2018: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2018-team-defense.html (in all cases, Yards were used to determine ranking. FCS school(s) were given a 131 ranking)

Commonality #1 - Game Location

Note #1: The only "Neutral Site" game from last year was their bowl game against Michigan State, so this is an extremely limited sample size.

Note #2: All Away games were against P5 competition, whereas the Home games were a mixture of P5, G5, and FCS. 

Conclusion: When playing away from Autzen Stadium, Oregon averaged 1.8 fewer touchdowns, 1.4 fewer yards/pass, and 0.2 fewer yards/rush. This indicates that their passing attack was influenced more by the game location than their rushing attack.

Commonality #2 - Competition Level

Note: Oregon only played 1 FCS team last year, which again is an extremely limited data set.

Conclusion: Oregon's passing attack showed a slight dip in yards/pass when facing P5 competition, however their Passing TD's/game showed a much larger dip. Again, this chart indicates that their rushing attack was consistent regardless of P5/G5 level.

Predictions

I am predicting that Oregon goes 23/37 passing for 240.5 yards and 1.8 TDs and rushes the ball 28 times for 126 yards, averaging 4.5 yards per rush with 1.8 TDs. These values are based on Auburn's defensive rankings from 2018 (58th in pass defense, 32nd in rush defense). 

This would give Oregon 25.2 points. Add in 0.5 FGs (they went 6/11 last year in 13 games) and I'm predicting that they will score 26.7 points. 

 

Final Score Prediction: 35-27 Auburn

 

[japantiger 4,051]

1 hour ago, AUEngineer2016 said:

Couldn't focus at work this morning, so I decided to do something extremely dangerous, which is make my prediction based on statistics from 2018. 

Methodology: I used information from sports-reference.com and plotted Oregon's offensive performance against several commonalities between games, which I then used to predict their offensive performance against Auburn based on Auburn's 2018 defensive statistics.

Oregon 2018 Game Log: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/oregon/2018/gamelog/

Defensive Rankings - 2018: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2018-team-defense.html (in all cases, Yards were used to determine ranking. FCS school(s) were given a 131 ranking)

Commonality #1 - Game Location

Note #1: The only "Neutral Site" game from last year was their bowl game against Michigan State, so this is an extremely limited sample size.

Note #2: All Away games were against P5 competition, whereas the Home games were a mixture of P5, G5, and FCS. 

Conclusion: When playing away from Autzen Stadium, Oregon averaged 1.8 fewer touchdowns, 1.4 fewer yards/pass, and 0.2 fewer yards/rush. This indicates that their passing attack was influenced more by the game location than their rushing attack.

Commonality #2 - Competition Level

Note: Oregon only played 1 FCS team last year, which again is an extremely limited data set.

Conclusion: Oregon's passing attack showed a slight dip in yards/pass when facing P5 competition, however their Passing TD's/game showed a much larger dip. Again, this chart indicates that their rushing attack was consistent regardless of P5/G5 level.

Predictions

I am predicting that Oregon goes 23/37 passing for 240.5 yards and 1.8 TDs and rushes the ball 28 times for 126 yards, averaging 4.5 yards per rush with 1.8 TDs. These values are based on Auburn's defensive rankings from 2018 (58th in pass defense, 32nd in rush defense). 

This would give Oregon 25.2 points. Add in 0.5 FGs (they went 6/11 last year in 13 games) and I'm predicting that they will score 26.7 points. 

 

Final Score Prediction: 35-27 Auburn

How did you derive Auburn's 35?  We scored 30 points only on Ala State, Arky, OleMiss, Liberty and Purdue.  In other words, no one with a pulse.

[AUEngineer2016 407]

8 minutes ago, japantiger said:

How did you derive Auburn's 35?  We scored 30 points only on Ala State, Arky, OleMiss, Liberty and Purdue.  In other words, no one with a pulse.

You can extend the same technique that I used on Oregon's offense to Auburn's offense, and predict our offensive output given how their defense played against similar competition. 

 

What actually happened is that I didn't want to get fired, so I picked a number that was more than what I predicted for Oregon while also being a multiple of 7.

[eagle63 14]

AU 31 - 17 

[ChltteTiger 649]

On 8/28/2019 at 4:44 PM, Viper said:

AU 22

Oregon 19

On the last drive, Boobie falls on a defender, everyone stops, then Boobie runs another 37 yards, setting up Carlson for the walk-off game-winner. 

Deja Voodoo!!

[japantiger 4,051]

3 hours ago, AUEngineer2016 said:

You can extend the same technique that I used on Oregon's offense to Auburn's offense, and predict our offensive output given how their defense played against similar competition. 

 

What actually happened is that I didn't want to get fired, so I picked a number that was more than what I predicted for Oregon while also being a multiple of 7.

Well played...

[Stumptown Duck 50]

Alright I've lurked long enough on this topic to get over my being offended for OU vs UO. 

 

We are sensitive types.

 

Ducks 22-19

[AUsince72 11,084]

4 minutes ago, Stumptown Duck said:

Alright I've lurked long enough on this topic to get over my being offended for OU vs UO. 

 

We are sensitive types.

 

Ducks 22-19

LOL!  I was wondering about that.

Don't be too offended.  Some of Auburn's best recruits over the years seem to want to commit to our sister school, The University of Auburn. 😆

[Eagle Eye 7 2,535]

I don’t want to sound over confident but I keep seeing on different sites folks talking about how good they were last year. I don’t see a single signature win on their schedule last year. Were there stats good yes. If we played in the PAC last year AU would have been #1 in the country in defense. They faced no one like uat, uga or LSU . They did play Washington and were not nearly as good as us against them. Also they have a new DC coming in I think from Utah , so even returning starters is not a guarantee because they have never played in his system. Herbert looked good. If you listen to the talking heads they are always bragging about the PACs offenses. But every time the PAC goes against an SEC offense they don’t fly so high. Does that mean we will blow them away? No. It just means if you look at it logical then AU shows to be the better team. That’s why we are the favorite going in. 

[Maverick.AU 13,279]

So my faith in gus drops again...

 

[augolf1716 21,130]

9 hours ago, AUEngineer2016 said:

Couldn't focus at work this morning, so I decided to do something extremely dangerous, which is make my prediction based on statistics from 2018. 

Methodology: I used information from sports-reference.com and plotted Oregon's offensive performance against several commonalities between games, which I then used to predict their offensive performance against Auburn based on Auburn's 2018 defensive statistics.

Oregon 2018 Game Log: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/oregon/2018/gamelog/

Defensive Rankings - 2018: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2018-team-defense.html (in all cases, Yards were used to determine ranking. FCS school(s) were given a 131 ranking)

Commonality #1 - Game Location

Note #1: The only "Neutral Site" game from last year was their bowl game against Michigan State, so this is an extremely limited sample size.

Note #2: All Away games were against P5 competition, whereas the Home games were a mixture of P5, G5, and FCS. 

Conclusion: When playing away from Autzen Stadium, Oregon averaged 1.8 fewer touchdowns, 1.4 fewer yards/pass, and 0.2 fewer yards/rush. This indicates that their passing attack was influenced more by the game location than their rushing attack.

Commonality #2 - Competition Level

Note: Oregon only played 1 FCS team last year, which again is an extremely limited data set.

Conclusion: Oregon's passing attack showed a slight dip in yards/pass when facing P5 competition, however their Passing TD's/game showed a much larger dip. Again, this chart indicates that their rushing attack was consistent regardless of P5/G5 level.

Predictions

I am predicting that Oregon goes 23/37 passing for 240.5 yards and 1.8 TDs and rushes the ball 28 times for 126 yards, averaging 4.5 yards per rush with 1.8 TDs. These values are based on Auburn's defensive rankings from 2018 (58th in pass defense, 32nd in rush defense). 

This would give Oregon 25.2 points. Add in 0.5 FGs (they went 6/11 last year in 13 games) and I'm predicting that they will score 26.7 points. 

 

Final Score Prediction: 35-27 Auburn

WTH is that..............

[CR 2,442]

15 minutes ago, Maverick.AU said:

So my faith in gus drops again...

 

If Malik gets more carries than Shivers, Gus wants his settlement money.

[Maverick.AU 13,279]

1 minute ago, CR said:

If Malik gets more carries than Shivers, Gus wants his settlement money.

 

[AUEngineer2016 407]

35 minutes ago, augolf1716 said:

WTH is that..............

It's called a Computer Golf, and it's kinda like a typewriter. 

You see a Typewriter is kinda like an automatic pen-and-paper.

 

 

 

 

A pen and paper is like a finer-point stone tablet. 

[augolf1716 21,130]

12 minutes ago, AUEngineer2016 said:

It's called a Computer Golf, and it's kinda like a typewriter. 

You see a Typewriter is kinda like an automatic pen-and-paper.

 

 

 

 

A pen and paper is like a finer-point stone tablet. 

Another comedian just WTH we need

[jAUSon 2,836]

25 minutes ago, augolf1716 said:

Another comedian just WTH we need

Hey I liked his posts. Great post @AUEngineer2016

[augolf1716 21,130]

4 minutes ago, jAUSon said:

Hey I liked his posts. Great post @AUEngineer2016

I'm so happy for you

[AUsince72 11,084]

1 hour ago, CR said:

1 hour ago, Maverick.AU said:

So my faith in gus drops again...

 

If Malik gets more carries than Shivers, Gus wants his settlement money.

Agreed.

Unless it's guys playing different RB "positions" (ie: Tailback vs Halfback vs Fullback), IMO that depth chart sucks...

I'm hoping Malik is only in as a "Fullback" or "Halfback" (sorry, I'm a bit too old school to remember the myriad position names Gus uses for skill positions) while Boobee, Kam, Worm, etc are next to the QB at the same time.  If he's ever the "Tailback" instead of ANY other RB on the roster this reeks of Gus' famous Situational Substituting.

....of course, I must admit, even though it appears that I could give him competition in a foot race (🤨) he HAS been curiously effective when given the ball, so there's that... 

[gr82b4au 5,568]

I am a little surprised we are still favored in this game.  The ducks are ranked higher, have an NFL QB, the top OL in the country, and we are starting a true freshman. I guess our defense is the reason. 

[AUEngineer2016 407]

2 hours ago, augolf1716 said:

Another comedian just WTH we need

[jAUSon 2,836]

2 hours ago, augolf1716 said:

I'm so happy for you

Fine. I see where this went.

[aucat 69]

49（Nick35 + Joey14）：（3+3） 

[Brannigan's Law 29]

Auburn 33 (2 tds, 4 fg, and a pick 6)

Oregon 7. 

 

Oregon will not be able to move the ball on our defense. The WRs injuries will show up in this game for them. If we can generate a passrush without the blitz, this might be ugly for Oregon.