ESPN’s Football Power Index projects rest of season

[Auburn2Eugene 2,317]

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/auburn-football/espns-fpi-predicts-auburns-remaining-games/

 

Auburn is only projected to win four out of the final nine games of the season, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. The FPI is a metric that “measures (a) team’s true strength on net points scale; expected point margin vs average opponent on a neutral field”. As one of the two teams in the country that is tasked with playing both Georgia and Alabama every season, the yearly schedule is tough enough for Auburn. Throw in a road trip to Gainesville for that second cross-divisional matchup, followed by two consecutive SEC road games, and things get even harder.

Here are the projected win probabilities for the rest of Auburn’s season, according to ESPN’s FPI:

• Sept 14. vs. Kent State: 98.5%
• Sept. 21 @ Texas A&M: 43.3%
• Sept. 28 vs. Mississippi State: 69.2%
• Oct. 5 @ Florida: 41.9%
• Oct. 19 @ Arkansas: 90.7%
• Oct. 26 @ LSU: 20.1%
• Nov. 2 vs. Ole Miss: 84.4%
• Nov. 16: vs. Georgia: 47.2%
• Nov. 23 vs. Samford: 99.1%
• Nov. 30 vs. Alabama: 22.2%

 

Doesnt look too good

[Mikey 16,777]

Sigh, why even bother to play? Since the infallible ESPN gurus have declared we will finish 7-5 let's just get geared up for the Birmingham Bowl right now.

[AU64 10,122]

1 minute ago, Mikey said:

Sigh, why even bother to play? Since the infallible ESPN gurus have declared we will finish 7-5 let's just get geared up for the Birmingham Bowl right now.

Looks like some easy money for AU fans now that sports betting is legal in most places.   Take that ESPN chart to their bookie and put some money down on each game and then sit back and wait for the money to roll in. 

[johnnyAU 3,668]

69% is quite high for the MSU game IMO. I might have it closer to 50%.

[AUGunsmith 666]

3 minutes ago, Mikey said:

Sigh, why even bother to play? Since the infallible ESPN gurus have declared we will finish 7-5 let's just get geared up for the Birmingham Bowl right now.

It doesn't say we win or lose, just the probability of that win or loss. 

Nice strawman. We know you aren't stupid enough to believe AU actually has a good chance to win against some of these teams we we are currently playing and being coached. 

 

Our highs under gus have mostly been with dumb luck, we cannot always count on the blind squirrel finding a nut. 

[AuCivilEng1 11,045]

I would hope that a season like this predicts would land us with a coaching search. I do think we pull off an upset somewhere in there. I think we lose to A&M, beat Arky and Florida, and then LSU smacks us back to reality in a big way and then UGA and Bama finish us. We finish 8-4 with losses to the rivals and A&M. I hope to god I’m wrong. 

[AuburnNTexas 7,198]

I think A&M will decide our season if we beat them and Miss State we roll into Florida with a lot of confidence and momentum if we lose especially if we lose badly I think the wheels fall off the Gus Bus.  We beat A&M and Miss State then Florida and we are looking at 9-3 or better if we can pull one upset.  If we lose A&M I don't see any upsets after that.

Right now I think the A&M game is most important game of the season. 

[gr82b4au 5,568]

Actually we are predicted to win 5, not 4. 

And that number will change after we beat TAM.  

[abw0004 10,134]

The Texas A&M percentage does not seem correct with their starting RB out and starting QB hobbled.  It's also still very early in the season.  Some of these teams may not be as good as advertised.  LSU and Texas A&M are the only two besides us having been truly tested.  Only LSU won their game.  They also have us losing to Florida and the jury is still out with them for me.  With their mass exodus of players in the offseason and their bad Miami game I think we could also win that as well.

[gravejd 3,272]

these percentages seem pretty reasonable to me based on what i have seen from the teams on the list. AU has a fighting chance in every game with bama and lsu being an uphill battle. That seems pretty reasonable to me. I'm surprised uga isn't favored more but they also have not looked great so far. 

What gets me is all the people who convinced themselves this AU team was world beaters after a last second pull out of the fire win against Oregon. And are now in melt down mode after we beat Tulane by 18 points. I don't really understand what people were expecting out of this season and what all the fuss is about. This season is going about like every season we have had under Gus. 

[AUGoo 2,666]

These the same guys who game Tennessee a 98% chance against GSU?

[AUsince72 11,084]

11 minutes ago, AUGoo said:

These the same guys who game Tennessee a 98% chance against GSU?

UT fans should have been put on notice when the Index came out at only 98% instead of 99%.  

[AU-24 3,118]

2 hours ago, AUGunsmith said:

It doesn't say we win or lose, just the probability of that win or loss. 

Nice strawman. We know you aren't stupid enough to believe AU actually has a good chance to win against some of these teams we we are currently playing and being coached. 

 

Our highs under gus have mostly been with dumb luck, we cannot always count on the blind squirrel finding a nut. 

Our highs under Gus were just dumb luck? Please tell me you don’t really believe that.

[AuCivilEng1 11,045]

 

10 minutes ago, AU-24 said:

Our highs under Gus were just dumb luck? Please tell me you don’t really believe that.

I can kind of see where he is coming from with the 2013 season. Those two plays made the season successful. I think the 2017 team was really good and earned those two wins against UGA and Bama

[oracle79 3,569]

58 minutes ago, gravejd said:

This season is going about like every season we have had under Gus. 

Thanks. That's probably the most depressing thing I've read on these boards - because I know it's true.

[bg5 536]

I don't see any reason to play the rest of the games since ESPN already knows how we are going to do. We just need them to tell us the odds on Gus getting fired ( I assume high). Then we need them to tell us the odds of getting a good replacement( I assume low). Then show us what the season will look like next year  (I assume bad).  We don't need to play anymore games period. We can just recruit then play the games on the computer. No one gets hurt and it's a lot less stress knowing this early in the season that what our record will be. That is all assuming ESPN is always right.

[AuburnEagle79 2,170]

We are not great right now, but only 3 teams on our schedule are. I see us in the 8-9 win range if our line shows improvement, 6-7 wins if they do not.

We will play better against Alabama than we do LSU. We are already way inflated in the rankings, and it's all about sacrificing another top 10 team to LSU. It will be ugly. 

[TigerEyez13 46]

Our defense is as good as Clemson, and they shut aTm down pretty effectively. I think we do the same. It really comes down to our O line and the receivers. We have a good kicker, and that will come in handy.

 

What scares me is Gus lost to Tennessee last year. How was that even possible? And we should have beaten LSU last year as well. So, Gus sometimes finds a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

[Zeek 16,660]

3 hours ago, Auburn2Eugene said:

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/auburn-football/espns-fpi-predicts-auburns-remaining-games/

 

Auburn is only projected to win four out of the final nine games of the season, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. The FPI is a metric that “measures (a) team’s true strength on net points scale; expected point margin vs average opponent on a neutral field”. As one of the two teams in the country that is tasked with playing both Georgia and Alabama every season, the yearly schedule is tough enough for Auburn. Throw in a road trip to Gainesville for that second cross-divisional matchup, followed by two consecutive SEC road games, and things get even harder.

Here are the projected win probabilities for the rest of Auburn’s season, according to ESPN’s FPI:

• Sept 14. vs. Kent State: 98.5%
• Sept. 21 @ Texas A&M: 43.3%
• Sept. 28 vs. Mississippi State: 69.2%
• Oct. 5 @ Florida: 41.9%
• Oct. 19 @ Arkansas: 90.7%
• Oct. 26 @ LSU: 20.1%
• Nov. 2 vs. Ole Miss: 84.4%
• Nov. 16: vs. Georgia: 47.2%
• Nov. 23 vs. Samford: 99.1%
• Nov. 30 vs. Alabama: 22.2%

 

Doesnt look too good

Here's my percentages:

Kent State - about right I'd say 99.2%

TAMU - about right I might move it a little closer to 50% so let's say 47%

Moo State - let's move that bad boy up a little because they're awful and we're at home. If we played 4 times I think we wing at least 3 of those 75%

Florida - another one I'm not sold on considering Miami just lost to UNC. Let's slide that to at least 45%

Arkansas - yeah I don't think they even have that much of a chance 95%

LSU - not seeing it happening especially at a place we haven't won in years and now they have a legitimate offense 10%

Ole Siss - LOL they're trash 90%

Georgia - that is a generous percentage for sure. I think it's closer to 25%

Samford - yup 99.5%

Alabama - probably generous as well let's say 8%

[Win4AU 4,055]

So you’re saying there’s a chance...... etc.  Let’s see how well Florida looks against Kentucky, how well Mond is getting around against their opponent this week, and how Auburn’s offense looks against Kent State.  I’ll go with the Tulane is better than they should be argument but if Auburn can’t move the ball against Kent State sound the alarms.

other interesting games this weekend Arky State at UGA.  Don’t sleep on this being halfway competitive.

KState vs.  Miss State

Bama at South Carolina.  Probably a blowout but we’ll see.

 

[AUFriction 1,179]

3 hours ago, Auburn2Eugene said:

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/auburn-football/espns-fpi-predicts-auburns-remaining-games/

 

Auburn is only projected to win four out of the final nine games of the season, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. The FPI is a metric that “measures (a) team’s true strength on net points scale; expected point margin vs average opponent on a neutral field”. As one of the two teams in the country that is tasked with playing both Georgia and Alabama every season, the yearly schedule is tough enough for Auburn. Throw in a road trip to Gainesville for that second cross-divisional matchup, followed by two consecutive SEC road games, and things get even harder.

Here are the projected win probabilities for the rest of Auburn’s season, according to ESPN’s FPI:

• Sept 14. vs. Kent State: 98.5%
• Sept. 21 @ Texas A&M: 43.3%
• Sept. 28 vs. Mississippi State: 69.2%
• Oct. 5 @ Florida: 41.9%
• Oct. 19 @ Arkansas: 90.7%
• Oct. 26 @ LSU: 20.1%
• Nov. 2 vs. Ole Miss: 84.4%
• Nov. 16: vs. Georgia: 47.2%
• Nov. 23 vs. Samford: 99.1%
• Nov. 30 vs. Alabama: 22.2%

 

Doesnt look too good

These kinds of projections are really terrible early in the season. As the model gains more data, they tend to circulate closer to the actual outcome. At this point, with only 2 games of information, these models are useless.

Personal opinion, I think our chances are better against A&M, Florida, LSU, Georgia, and Alabama than these projections suggest.

[kevon67 2,368]

3 hours ago, AUGunsmith said:

It doesn't say we win or lose, just the probability of that win or loss. 

Nice strawman. We know you aren't stupid enough to believe AU actually has a good chance to win against some of these teams we we are currently playing and being coached. 

 

Our highs under gus have mostly been with dumb luck, we cannot always count on the blind squirrel finding a nut. 

I bet the players beg to differ.

[Tigerpro2a 5,650]

I put zero stock in anything from ESPN due to them worrying too much about politics and not enough about sports. 

 

FIFY

[BJCrawford 1,568]

Actually surprised at the GA percentage. Would think it would be closer to Alabama and LSU

[AURex 2,054]

I'm not real convinced with the numbers ESPN is throwing out there. They think we have a better chance of beating Georgia than we have beating A&M or Florida? These kind of projections are pretty much just guessing anyway. Between injuries, morale issues, blown coaching calls, refs, and off target player expectations, you can easily end up with a loss to a crappy team (Tenn anyone?) as well as the sudden appearance of the football fairy waving her magic wand (miracle in Jordan-Hare anyone?).

Which, of course, is why they play the games rather than just letting talking heads at ESPN and LV bookies decide outcomes ahead of time.