ESPN’s Football Power Index projects rest of season

[Tigerpro2a 5,650]

1 hour ago, abw0004 said:

That was very specific.  

 

[McLoofus 35,182]

12 minutes ago, Tigerpro2a said:

@AURex down voted me. I guess I know where he stands. I don't care everybody is entitled to their views and Ideologies, but my goodness....I don't want it in my sports rundown.

I downvoted it, too. We don't want political views and ideologies in our sports rundown, either. There's a whole forum on this website dedicated to that. 

[AUsince72 11,084]

35 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

48 minutes ago, Tigerpro2a said:

@AURex down voted me. I guess I know where he stands. I don't care everybody is entitled to their views and Ideologies, but my goodness....I don't want it in my sports rundown.

I downvoted it, too. We don't want political views and ideologies in our sports rundown, either. There's a whole forum on this website dedicated to that. 

Though I agree with you @Tigerpro2a about BSPN's political slant, I also agree with @McLoofus that let's please leave the politics (right & left) off of our sports forums. 

I avoid the Political Forum like the plague because I have a lot of disappointment over the opinions & attitudes over there.  Please!!! ....keep it over there. 🥺

[Tigerpro2a 5,650]

10 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

I downvoted it, too. We don't want political views and ideologies in our sports rundown, either. There's a whole forum on this website dedicated to that. 

 

2 minutes ago, AUsince72 said:

Though I agree with you @Tigerpro2a about BSPN's political slant, I also agree with @McLoofus that let's please leave the politics (right & left) off of our sports forums. 

I avoid the Political Forum like a plague because I have a lot of disappointment over the opinions & attitudes over there.  Please!!! ....keep it over there. 🥺

So let me rephrase that ( I will edit )..1st off I apologize. My point wasn't to bring politics in to our forum only to state how bad I hate ESPN for them doing it and I feel it has taken away from their sports credibility....If I had only said I don't like ESPN due to them shoving their political views down my throat would it have made a difference?  Had I worded it that way, and left out the part about their "Leftwing" political views, anyone who watches ESPN knows what the views I am referring to so it wouldn't have made a difference. Still got downvoted either way so it's cool. 

[Tigerpro2a 5,650]

18 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

I downvoted it, too. We don't want political views and ideologies in our sports rundown, either. There's a whole forum on this website dedicated to that. 

Yea...kinda contradicted myself their. I fixed it. 

[McLoofus 35,182]

6 minutes ago, Tigerpro2a said:

So let me rephrase that ( I will edit )..1st off I apologize. My point wasn't to bring politics in to our forum only to state how bad I hate ESPN for them doing it and I feel it has taken away from their sports credibility....If I had only said I don't like ESPN due to them shoving their political views down my throat would it have made a difference?  Had I worded it that way, and left out the part about their "Leftwing" political views, anyone who watches ESPN knows what the views I am referring to so it wouldn't have made a difference. Still got downvoted either way so it's cool. 

 

4 minutes ago, Tigerpro2a said:

Yea...kinda contradicted myself their. I fixed it. 

Damn, that's a solid response. Better than I would have done. Zero sarcasm. No apologies necessary. 

[AUsince72 11,084]

17 minutes ago, Tigerpro2a said:

 

So let me rephrase that ( I will edit )..1st off I apologize. My point wasn't to bring politics in to our forum only to state how bad I hate ESPN for them doing it and I feel it has taken away from their sports credibility....If I had only said I don't like ESPN due to them shoving their political views down my throat would it have made a difference?  Had I worded it that way, and left out the part about their "Leftwing" political views, anyone who watches ESPN knows what the views I am referring to so it wouldn't have made a difference. Still got downvoted either way so it's cool. 

No apology necessary at all.  You're 100% entitled to your view and have the freedom to express it (even here) as it is still a free country...for now.  My post is simply a plea to not drag us into that forum as this forum is at least a haven away from 2019 politics.

And to your point, BSPN would be a lot more favorable, to a lot more people, if they would check THEIR politics at the door too.  So, your point was not lost on me, FWIW.

[Tigerpro2a 5,650]

1 minute ago, AUsince72 said:

No apology necessary at all.  You're 100% entitled to your view and have the freedom to express it (even here) as it is still a free country...for now.  My post is simply a plea to not drag us into that forum as this forum is at least a haven away from 2019 politics.

And to your point, BSPN would be a lot more favorable, to a lot more people, if they would check THEIR politics at the door too.  So, your point was not lost on me, FWIW.

Thank you. I understand it is a free country, even here, but I agree with everything said. I don't want this to become that so I am glad it was pointed out. It just bothers me so much because I used to love to watch BSPN and can't stand it now. 

[AUsince72 11,084]

Just now, Tigerpro2a said:

Thank you. I understand it is a free country, even here, but I agree with everything said. I don't want this to become that so I am glad it was pointed out. It just bothers me so much because I used to love to watch BSPN and can't stand it now. 

100% in agreement with you there. 

[Mike4AU 1,742]

4 hours ago, gr82b4au said:

Actually we are predicted to win 5, not 4. 

And that number will change after we beat TAM.  

The statement was win 4 out of the last 9.  5 wins of the remaining 10 games is correct. 

[McLoofus 35,182]

Eh. I don't pick up on a political vibe with ESPN. Maybe that just means I agree with them? Hah. 

Actually, I don't consume ESPN content except for actual game broadcasts and fantasy info. So maybe that's it. 

I don't even use it for background noise in the hotel room while I get ready for work because I'm not on the road anymore. But maaaaan I used to listen to Mike yell at Mike a lot more than I actually wanted to. Nerds. 

[RHN1975 302]

6 hours ago, Auburn2Eugene said:

https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/auburn-football/espns-fpi-predicts-auburns-remaining-games/

 

Auburn is only projected to win four out of the final nine games of the season, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. The FPI is a metric that “measures (a) team’s true strength on net points scale; expected point margin vs average opponent on a neutral field”. As one of the two teams in the country that is tasked with playing both Georgia and Alabama every season, the yearly schedule is tough enough for Auburn. Throw in a road trip to Gainesville for that second cross-divisional matchup, followed by two consecutive SEC road games, and things get even harder.

Here are the projected win probabilities for the rest of Auburn’s season, according to ESPN’s FPI:

• Sept 14. vs. Kent State: 98.5%
• Sept. 21 @ Texas A&M: 43.3%
• Sept. 28 vs. Mississippi State: 69.2%
• Oct. 5 @ Florida: 41.9%
• Oct. 19 @ Arkansas: 90.7%
• Oct. 26 @ LSU: 20.1%
• Nov. 2 vs. Ole Miss: 84.4%
• Nov. 16: vs. Georgia: 47.2%
• Nov. 23 vs. Samford: 99.1%
• Nov. 30 vs. Alabama: 22.2%

 

Doesnt look too good

After last weekend I think we beat A&M. It will be tough but they couldn't muster anything against a good defense. They also lost one of their top backs for the season against Clemson. And as bad as I want to slap myself and call myself a fool I still think the offense is purposefully vanilla due to having a freshman QB and playing Tulane/Kent St. Oregon was simply Nix's first start. We should beat Tulane and Kent on talent so I honestly feel like we have not seen this offense yet. 

I also do not think UF is going to be the team we are expecting them to be. The bad thing is LSU is better than expected and UGA/bama will be as advertised. 

[abw0004 10,139]

4 minutes ago, Tigerpro2a said:

Thank you. I understand it is a free country, even here, but I agree with everything said. I don't want this to become that so I am glad it was pointed out. It just bothers me so much because I used to love to watch BSPN and can't stand it now. 

You couldn't have handled that better.  I could even learn a thing or two from you.  Hopefully they removed their "downvotes" and turned them into "likes."  I will try to take it a step further and remove my response to that comment as you can still see you original comment on mine.  

[Tigerpro2a 5,650]

2 minutes ago, abw0004 said:

You couldn't have handled that better.  I could even learn a thing or two from you.  Hopefully they removed their "downvotes" and turned them into "likes."  I will try to take it a step further and remove my response to that comment as you can still see you original comment on mine.  

Hey I get it. I am not perfect. I know we all come here for our own reasons and we all have a diverse view of the world as a whole, but we all love Auburn and on the sports forums I shouldn't have done that. I'm not one who has ever cared if people like me. I do, however, care about respect. Respect given and respect received. I would like to be a respected member of this community and that was not a good move on my part. It's a learning process. At the end of the day....War Damn Eagle to all!!!! 

[AUsince72 11,084]

17 minutes ago, Tigerpro2a said:

Hey I get it. I am not perfect. I know we all come here for our own reasons and we all have a diverse view of the world as a whole, but we all love Auburn and on the sports forums I shouldn't have done that. I'm not one who has ever cared if people like me. I do, however, care about respect. Respect given and respect received. I would like to be a respected member of this community and that was not a good move on my part. It's a learning process. At the end of the day....War Damn Eagle to all!!!! 

VERY well said....

 

 

 

 

...IMHO 

[McLoofus 35,182]

Regardless of why, I do think we all agree that ESPN sucks. 

[Rednilla 5,401]

6 hours ago, AUGunsmith said:

It doesn't say we win or lose, just the probability of that win or loss. 

Nice strawman. We know you aren't stupid enough to believe AU actually has a good chance to win against some of these teams we we are currently playing and being coached. 

 

Our highs under gus have mostly been with dumb luck, we cannot always count on the blind squirrel finding a nut. 

Against Georgia in 2013, their QB didn't make it to the end zone on fourth and goal, but was granted the touchdown because there wasn't enough video evidence to overturn the call. The Miracle that happened just negated that.

In the Kick Six game, Auburn had just marched down the field like a hot knife through butter to tie the game up and take the momentum. Even if Davis doesn't have the spectacular return, I would put hard money on Auburn winning in OT.

Against #1 Georgia and then again against #1 Alabama in 2017, Auburn dominated the game with the exception of one drive from the opposition (first drive of the game for UGA, first drive of the second half for UAT).

Those are the high points under Gus, and it's hard to call any of them except the Miracle at Jordan-Hare dumb luck. Make your argument that Auburn has been mediocre in every other year all you'd like, but don't act as if Malzahn has gotten nothing right in his time on the Plains.

[Tigerpro2a 5,650]

23 minutes ago, Rednilla said:

Against Georgia in 2013, their QB didn't make it to the end zone on fourth and goal, but was granted the touchdown because there wasn't enough video evidence to overturn the call. The Miracle that happened just negated that.

In the Kick Six game, Auburn had just marched down the field like a hot knife through butter to tie the game up and take the momentum. Even if Davis doesn't have the spectacular return, I would put hard money on Auburn winning in OT.

Against #1 Georgia and then again against #1 Alabama in 2017, Auburn dominated the game with the exception of one drive from the opposition (first drive of the game for UGA, first drive of the second half for UAT).

Those are the high points under Gus, and it's hard to call any of them except the Miracle at Jordan-Hare dumb luck. Make your argument that Auburn has been mediocre in every other year all you'd like, but don't act as if Malzahn has gotten nothing right in his time on the Plains.

I do agree about 2013. 2017 was awesome as well, I just hate that we laid an egg later. It really downplayed what otherwise was an amazing run. That is one big problem I think alot of people have with Gus. 

Gus has brought some AUmazing times to Auburn. 2013 was probably the funnest season I have experienced. He has his downfalls. He isn't called 4 game Gus for no reason.

Here is one thing I think about. 2013 and 2014 seasons, if we had a defense we wouldn't have been stopped. I think we would have 2 more Natties if we had a Defense then. Gus fixed that. He made the right hires and fixed it. We have a Defense now. The Offense has fallen off, yes. I think a big part of that is definitely recruiting certain guys and some missed evaluations. All of that stuff typically gets better with more time. He is still a green coach as far as experience. I know we always say "He is getting paid 7 million a year" and bring up his salary when talking about his mistakes and what not. Of course with good reason, but fact is he is a young coach. Leath gave him that ridiculous contract. I can't blame Gus for signing it. I think when Auburn decided to pay top 5 money to a coach that WE all expected Gus to gain 20 years worth of experience overnight and our expectations shouldn't have shot that high in retrospect. If Gus was making 4.5 million a year I doubt we would be lighting his seat up as often. I get it. I just think Leath deserves so much of that. 

All in all, I am disappointed in PTB's decisions over the past several years. I hope Gus learns and succeeds at Auburn because I do like him and how he directs our program, I just don't know if I can handle the stress of growing pains any longer. 

[CR 2,448]

It may or may not happen but their projection is not unreasonable IMO.

[Rednilla 5,401]

14 minutes ago, Tigerpro2a said:

I do agree about 2013. 2017 was awesome as well, I just hate that we laid an egg later. It really downplayed what otherwise was an amazing run. That is one big problem I think alot of people have with Gus. 

Gus has brought some AUmazing times to Auburn. 2013 was probably the funnest season I have experienced. He has his downfalls. He isn't called 4 game Gus for no reason.

Here is one thing I think about. 2013 and 2014 seasons, if we had a defense we wouldn't have been stopped. I think we would have 2 more Natties if we had a Defense then. Gus fixed that. He made the right hires and fixed it. We have a Defense now. The Offense has fallen off, yes. I think a big part of that is definitely recruiting certain guys and some missed evaluations. All of that stuff typically gets better with more time. He is still a green coach as far as experience. I know we always say "He is getting paid 7 million a year" and bring up his salary when talking about his mistakes and what not. Of course with good reason, but fact is he is a young coach. Leath gave him that ridiculous contract. I can't blame Gus for signing it. I think when Auburn decided to pay top 5 money to a coach that WE all expected Gus to gain 20 years worth of experience overnight and our expectations shouldn't have shot that high in retrospect. If Gus was making 4.5 million a year I doubt we would be lighting his seat up as often. I get it. I just think Leath deserves so much of that. 

All in all, I am disappointed in PTB's decisions over the past several years. I hope Gus learns and succeeds at Auburn because I do like him and how he directs our program, I just don't know if I can handle the stress of growing pains any longer. 

I think it boils down to offensive line issues, myself. That may be the recruiting you're talking about, I don't know, but I feel pretty good about the class we're bringing in next year. By the time it's all said and done, we'll probably have at least four 4 star recruits along the offensive front, and they're all guys who got on board early in the process, so odds are that they were at or near the top of the coaches' wish list. I just hope we're able to get better production out of the guys we have and Gus doesn't get run off, because you're absolutely right about it being relatively early in Malzahn's head coaching tenure. 

For comparison's sake, in his first 7 years as a head coach, Gus has gone 62-30 (.674 winning percentage); Nick Saban was 51-30 (.630) during his first 7 seasons; Dabo Swinney was 61-26 (.701); Les Miles was 62-27 (.697); Jimbo Fisher was a lofty 78-17 (.821); and Mack Brown was a measly 26-51 (.338). That's Malzahn compared to every active head coach who has won a national championship. To give an Auburn flavor to it, Pat Dye was 54-23 (.701) in his first 7 seasons, and Shug Jordan was 47-24-2 (.658).

[Tigerpro2a 5,650]

5 minutes ago, Rednilla said:

I think it boils down to offensive line issues, myself. That may be the recruiting you're talking about, I don't know, but I feel pretty good about the class we're bringing in next year. By the time it's all said and done, we'll probably have at least four 4 star recruits along the offensive front, and they're all guys who got on board early in the process, so odds are that they were at or near the top of the coaches' wish list. I just hope we're able to get better production out of the guys we have and Gus doesn't get run off, because you're absolutely right about it being relatively early in Malzahn's head coaching tenure. 

For comparison's sake, in his first 7 years as a head coach, Gus has gone 62-30 (.674 winning percentage); Nick Saban was 51-30 (.630) during his first 7 seasons; Dabo Swinney was 61-26 (.701); Les Miles was 62-27 (.697); Jimbo Fisher was a lofty 78-17 (.821); and Mack Brown was a measly 26-51 (.338). That's Malzahn compared to every active head coach who has won a national championship. To give an Auburn flavor to it, Pat Dye was 54-23 (.701) in his first 7 seasons, and Shug Jordan was 47-24-2 (.658).

Yes, And Jimbo was in a weak ACC. As for the offensive line issues, that is exactly what I am talking about with recruiting. I think we miscalculated the hit/miss ratio on OL, or just flat out didn't bring in enough. He put all his eggs in plan A basket and no plan B when plan A didn't work out for 3-4 years. I do think he has realized the error of his ways and has made a change this year in terms of OL recruiting. I like this year's OL class. I think a few guys can contribute early. I liked the guys we got last year, too. I think Jones is a guy that I am excited to see. I think he has that mean streak we need up front. That is the biggest issue in my opinion. That and under utilizing talent and pigeon hole guys with certain roles. I think if he quits thinking so much, goes back to the Old Gus that would never take a knee before half regardless of score, and continues to show improvement with everything else then I like where the program is going. I know that may be asking alot but again.....EARLY in coaching career. I will not excuse bone headed losses to lesser talent anymore though.