chances in the iron bowl?

[gr82b4au 5,568]

22 hours ago, WarTim said:

First to 24 wins

I said the same thing in the LSU and UF games. I also said the first one to 17 in the Uga game wins. 
I was right each time, although I thought we would beat UGA. 
... and I agree with you, first one to 24 wins. Not us. 

[bigbird 60,529]

There's so much optimism from a lot of y'all. I haven't seen anything in the last two seasons that gives me any confidence we can score enough. I see a 24-10...31-13 type score.

JMO

[AuburnTiger4Life 2,225]

We should be able to take advantage of their DBs. If Nix can hit his deep throws, Auburn wins. 

[AuburnTiger4Life 2,225]

6 minutes ago, bigbird said:

There's so much optimism from a lot of y'all. I haven't seen anything in the last two seasons that gives me any confidence we can score enough. I see a 24-10...31-13 type score.

JMO

This is the worst Bama defense in the Saban era there. If we can’t score more than 13 against them at home then we have more problems than I thought 

[AU_Twisterman 83]

15 minutes ago, AuburnTiger4Life said:

This is the worst Bama defense in the Saban era there. If we can’t score more than 13 against them at home then we have more problems than I thought 

They are not as impressive as they usually are on defense, but a team still has to have the offense to take advantage of their weaknesses.  Can AU do that?  I hope so.  They have held 6 teams on their schedule to 13 points or less (weak schedule, but still shows they aren't porous).  Besides giving up some plays to Ole Miss and their running QB, seems like they are more vulnerable to a good passing attack.  But I haven't watched them a whole lot, and I think they are dealing with more injuries which could help AU.

[bigbird 60,529]

34 minutes ago, AuburnTiger4Life said:

This is the worst Bama defense in the Saban era there. If we can’t score more than 13 against them at home then we have more problems than I thought 

We scored 20 on Ole Miss at home...bama is significantly better than they are

 

Team defensive ranks:

AU : 24

UA: 27

OM: 90

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/22

[CleCoTiger 1,957]

The stout AU defense will have a real shot at rattling the still wet behind the ears Alabama QB.  He hasn't faced anything like what our defense brings.

The crowd inside Jordan-Hare is a plus as long as the game isn't getting away from our Tigers.

Realistically? I think our Tigers have about a 50-50 shot at getting the win.

[CR 2,442]

I dont get the whole Bama defense is terrible theme. Theyre not elite but theyre not trash either. Their defensive problems pale in comparison to our offensive weaknesses. How does the AU offense suddenly get good?

[AuburnTiger4Life 2,225]

11 minutes ago, bigbird said:

We scored 20 on Ole Miss at home...bama is significantly better than they are

We also scored 51 against Arky and 56 against MSU. They scored 3 points against MSU with Mac. Ole miss we had 507 yards of offense but shot ourselves in the foot every drive 

[bigbird 60,529]

Pass yards allowed:

UA: 19

AU: 45

OM: 121

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/695

Rush yards allowed:

AU: 22

OM: 34

UA: 39

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/24

 

[AuburnTiger4Life 2,225]

24 minutes ago, AU_Twisterman said:

They are not as impressive as they usually are on defense, but a team still has to have the offense to take advantage of their weaknesses.  Can AU do that?  I hope so.  They have held 6 teams on their schedule to 13 points or less (weak schedule, but still shows they aren't porous).  Besides giving up some plays to Ole Miss and their running QB, seems like they are more vulnerable to a good passing attack.  But I haven't watched them a whole lot, and I think they are dealing with more injuries which could help AU.

Not saying they’re trash. But compared to the defenses they’ve had they’re just not as athletic or physical.

Are they Arkansas and Moo State level bad? No

Are they at Georgia, Florida or Auburn’s level? Not even close 

[AUsince72 11,084]

I can't believe there's 3 pages of overlooking Samford.

I'm afraid we might be hurting their feelings.  

[bigbird 60,529]

3 minutes ago, AuburnTiger4Life said:

Are they at Georgia, Florida or Auburn’s level? Not even close 

 

27 minutes ago, bigbird said:

Team defensive ranks:

AU : 24

UA: 27

OM: 90

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/22

 

10 minutes ago, bigbird said:

Pass yards allowed:

UA: 19

AU: 45

OM: 121

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/695

Rush yards allowed:

AU: 22

OM: 34

UA: 39

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/24

 

Stats don't agree

[nixtosanders94 2,180]

I think some of yall believe bama’s defense is like Texas State or something. Its not up to usual Saban standards but its still a talented defense with playmakers.  It won’t be as easy as some of you are making it out to be.  Especially with the Malfunction offense we are running. 

I hope we win. I really do. I want those defensive players, especially the ones who came back this year, to have something to hang their hat on other than “well, we almost beat so and so”...

But my guess is this will go like our other big games...defense tries hard, offense sucks, AU falls...

[AuburnTiger4Life 2,225]

Just now, bigbird said:

 

 

Stats don't agree

Stats are useless. Let’s compare schedules and take away Auburn 3rd string defense. See what the stats say then 

[wde21 344]

I think we get the win primarily because their 2nd string qb hasn’t faced anything like our defense and the crowd at Jordan Hare in this rivalry game. This season has been frustrating but would love to knock the bammers out of the playoffs. 

[AuburnTiger4Life 2,225]

Auburn D vs LSU: 23 points (in Death Valley)

Bama D vs LSU: 46 points (at home)

Auburn D vs A&M: 20 

Bama D vs A&M: 28 

Auburn D vs Ole Miss: 14

Bama D vs Ole Miss: 31

Throw Arky and Miss State out the window because both teams had their backups in most of the game and MSU had a different QB. 

[SuperAUsome09 738]

There's no doubt Auburn's defense can make Bama struggle and potentially cause turnovers. The problem is, our D will have to score on every turnover for us to get the W.

I just have zero faith in our offense and that's sad.

[bigbird 60,529]

16 minutes ago, AuburnTiger4Life said:

Auburn D vs LSU: 23 points (in Death Valley)

Bama D vs LSU: 46 points (at home)

Auburn D vs A&M: 20 

Bama D vs A&M: 28 

Auburn D vs Ole Miss: 14

Bama D vs Ole Miss: 31

Throw Arky and Miss State out the window because both teams had their backups in most of the game and MSU had a different QB. 

How'd the offense do?

[I_M4_AU 7,839]

36 minutes ago, AuburnTiger4Life said:

Stats are useless. Let’s compare schedules and take away Auburn 3rd string defense. See what the stats say then 

The bolded part seems to be contradictory.

[johnnyAU 3,630]

Neither Bama's nor LSU's D area as good as they've been in the past.  Auburn's D is much better than they've been in the past.

Both Bama's and LSU's O is much better than they've been in the past. Auburn's O is worse than its been in a few years.

Both Bama's and Auburn's kicking games are subpar.

Bama has a stellar return team. Auburn's is average or below. 

With Tua, I'd still say we hold Bama below 30 pts.  Without Tua, we could keep them below 20. 

HOWEVER...I'm not sure Auburn's O can score more than 20.  If we lay an egg offensively like we have in a few games, then we're not going to like the outcome. 

No doubt we had the D this year to make some real noise in the SEC and make the playoffs. What a shame...again.

 

[EagleEye67 1,939]

1 hour ago, AuburnTiger4Life said:

This is the worst Bama defense in the Saban era there.

Which means its still better than 85% of every other D out there

[AUght2win 6,838]

We are going to win. Why? Because simply put this team is better than 8-4, regardless of coach or schedule. They will win this one because they are due and the ball will bounce our way. A guy like Derrick deserves one final big win at home, and I think he'll get it.

[Win4AU 4,052]

Stop the run and make Mac Jones beat Auburn.  If Auburn harasses him they could shut down the whole offense.  How many points did they score against a bad Miss State D when Tua went down?

[LeonardAU 237]

4 minutes ago, Win4AU said:

Stop the run and make Mac Jones beat Auburn. 

Have you forgotten that the Auburn tradition is to make backup QB's look like Heisman contenders?