Auburn/Tennessee Metrics in Year 2 Under New HC

[woodford 3,682]

All of this data is from collegefootballdata.com. I am not a sports analytics expert, but by God I'm trying to be. So if someone like @StatTiger or @Zeek wants to chime in and help elaborate or correct me I'd more than welcome it!

First, let's look at the current talent composite rankings for reference. Auburn sits at 17 and Tennessee is two below at 19. Pretty similar programs talent wise at the moment.

 

For reference, here are the terms from the glossary on the CFBdata website

• Expected Points (EP) assumes that not all yard lines are created equal. In other words, each yardline is assigned a point value and measures the number of points that would be expected to be scored based on down, distance, and field position. A negative value means that the opposing team would be expected to score the next points in the game.
• Expected Points Added (EPA) uses Expected Points to measure the outcome of a play. It takes the EP value from the beginning of a play (e.g. 2nd and 5 at the 50) and subtracts it from the EP value resulting from the play (e.g. rush for 10 yards results in 1st and 10 from the 40).

Every play is considered with context in mind, meaning down distance and field position are used to evaluate the amount of EPA compared to the actual result of the play. These statistics can be added to create a cumulative EPA over the course of a time period or season, or it can be viewed by EPA/play.

Success rate is an advanced metric in football that measures efficiency, but with the important context of down and distance considered.

Here are the Predicted/Expected Points Added (PPA/EPA) for both teams so far in 2022. 

 

Cumulative EPA below. Tennessee TWICE as much offensive output as Auburn in both offense and defense.

Success Rate

 

What does this mean? Tennessee has a much better chance of scoring on a given play than Auburn does. Tennessee is much more efficient than Auburn on offense. Anyone who has watched CFB this year can tell you that, but these metrics show just how much more efficient/better Tennessee is. Why did I pick Tennessee to compare to Auburn? Simple. They are also in year 2 of their head coach who had to deal with transfers leaving the program and with LESS talent than Auburn (on paper). Auburn is not the only program who has issues. 

My point? Coaching is EVERYTHING in college football. Game planning, scheme, adjustments, and leadership are even more crucial when you don't have blue chippers peppered across your roster. Tennessee has had success because Huepel and co have been efficient on offense thanks to their scheme and game planning. UT is using some duct tape until they pull in top 10 classes. These are only a few data points and there's a lot more to it, but there's no reason why Auburn can't compete. 

 

 

References:

Success Rate Definition | The Action Network

CollegeFootballData.com

What Is EPA? How Expected Points Added Advanced Metric Can Help You with Football Betting (actionnetwork.com)

Advanced Stats in College Football: What They Are, Where to Find Them (actionnetwork.com)

[AUApostle 7,663]

After seeing this I think it may be time to part ways with Harsin.

[screwtape 16]

Sure but you did not put in the UT time factor.

 

UT has been UTing itself for ~14 years.   Auburn has been UTing itself for only 1.5.  Auburn has another decade or so of UTing itself before we can start to see improvement.

[The Freak 2,529]

WhAt If We TuRn InTo TeNnEsSeE?

[W.E.D 11,070]

2 minutes ago, screwtape said:

Sure but you did not put in the UT time factor.

UT has been UTing itself for ~14 years.   Auburn has been UTing itself for only 1.5.  Auburn has another decade or so of UTing itself before we can start to see improvement.

This is the dumbest mindset possible.

[aucom96 1,648]

9 minutes ago, screwtape said:

UT has been UTing itself for ~14 years.   Auburn has been UTing itself for only 1.5.  Auburn has another decade or so of UTing itself before we can start to see improvement.

[api1957 1,783]

48 minutes ago, screwtape said:

Sure but you did not put in the UT time factor.

 

UT has been UTing itself for ~14 years.   Auburn has been UTing itself for only 1.5.  Auburn has another decade or so of UTing itself before we can start to see improvement.

[Gowebb11 9,488]

Good analysis. Side note: UT fans were about as displeased with the Heupel hire as we were the Harsin hire. More proof that you never know with a coaching search. 

[EastAl_Tiger 228]

1 hour ago, woodford said:

with LESS talent than Auburn (on paper)

I'd say that paper would get an "F" grade, at best.

[Bro Johnny Mac 1,403]

Even Anni Lennox (analytics ) says we stink🙄

Sweet dreams are not made of this...

Edited October 10, 2022 by Bro Johnny Mac

[Tigerbelle 5,299]

2 hours ago, Gowebb11 said:

Good analysis. Side note: UT fans were about as displeased with the Heupel hire as we were the Harsin hire. More proof that you never know with a coaching search. 

That just goes to show you that the average fan actually knows very little about football. I wanted Heupel to be hired at Auburn. Instead, he's got TN ranked at #8 and Auburn may not win another game in 2022.  Heupel is a good coach who understands the job, and just does the work needed. He's not trying to be a star. 

I could not stand Harsin from the get-go, and I have never believed anything he ever said. I stated here at the time, that I believed the players who called him out were telling us the truth about Harsin.  But plenty of people were excited about the hire, and some were naming him the next Nick Saban. 

[PUB78 1,369]

2 hours ago, Gowebb11 said:

Good analysis. Side note: UT fans were about as displeased with the Heupel hire as we were the Harsin hire. More proof that you never know with a coaching search. 

Even Finebammer didn’t like the Heupel hire.

[PUB78 1,369]

3 hours ago, The Freak said:

WhAt If We TuRn InTo TeNnEsSeE?

Or Nebraska, Texas, FSU or Miami?

Texas may have now found their answer and is headed out of the wilderness.

[Hank2020 3,228]

2 hours ago, Tigerbelle said:

That just goes to show you that the average fan actually knows very little about football. I wanted Heupel to be hired at Auburn. Instead, he's got TN ranked at #8 and Auburn may not win another game in 2022.  Heupel is a good coach who understands the job, and just does the work needed. He's not trying to be a star. 

I could not stand Harsin from the get-go, and I have never believed anything he ever said. I stated here at the time, that I believed the players who called him out were telling us the truth about Harsin.  But plenty of people were excited about the hire, and some were naming him the next Nick Saban. 

Make the correct call on next coaching hire and we call you clairvoyant, if you miss it , guess you were just guessing like everyone else.

[EagleEye67 1,947]

4 hours ago, Bro Johnny Mac said:

Even Anni Lennox (analytics ) says we stink🙄

Sweet dreams are not made of this...

Gawd, I hated the Eurythmics. Yuck music.

[bigbird 60,597]

6 hours ago, The Freak said:

WhAt If We TuRn InTo TeNnEsSeE?

I thought the same exact thing 

[WDE_OxPx_2010 5,324]

10 hours ago, AUDevil said:

After seeing this I think it may be time to part ways with Harsin.

FINALLY jumping on the bandwagon. Took you long enough.

[WDE_OxPx_2010 5,324]

6 hours ago, Tigerbelle said:

That just goes to show you that the average fan actually knows very little about football. I wanted Heupel to be hired at Auburn. Instead, he's got TN ranked at #8 and Auburn may not win another game in 2022.  Heupel is a good coach who understands the job, and just does the work needed. He's not trying to be a star. 

I could not stand Harsin from the get-go, and I have never believed anything he ever said. I stated here at the time, that I believed the players who called him out were telling us the truth about Harsin.  But plenty of people were excited about the hire, and some were naming him the next Nick Saban. 

Do you want a cookie?

[jluvah 673]

18 hours ago, Tigerbelle said:

That just goes to show you that the average fan actually knows very little about football. I wanted Heupel to be hired at Auburn. Instead, he's got TN ranked at #8 and Auburn may not win another game in 2022.  Heupel is a good coach who understands the job, and just does the work needed. He's not trying to be a star. 

I could not stand Harsin from the get-go, and I have never believed anything he ever said. I stated here at the time, that I believed the players who called him out were telling us the truth about Harsin.  But plenty of people were excited about the hire, and some were naming him the next Nick Saban. 

@cole256, is that you?

[woodford 3,682]

Here's an even more depressing graphic. Auburn just can't do anything on offense. Credit the defense for not falling apart as much as they are on the field.

[dyehardfanAU 2,117]

On 10/10/2022 at 8:51 AM, screwtape said:

Sure but you did not put in the UT time factor.

 

UT has been UTing itself for ~14 years.   Auburn has been UTing itself for only 1.5.  Auburn has another decade or so of UTing itself before we can start to see improvement.

We've been UT since 2015, with the exception of 2017.

Edited October 12, 2022 by dyehardfanAU

[AUAlumnTN 211]

4 hours ago, dyehardfanAU said:

We've been UT since 2015, with the exception of 2017.

You do realize just exactly how BAD UT was before Heupel got there, yeah? We haven't been setting the world on fire, no but Auburn is well above .500 with a division title and multiple wins over Alabama during that stretch. During the same span, Tennessee is 10 games UNDER .500 in SEC play, suffered multiple losing seasons, and had a three game losing streak to VANDERBILT at one point.

[dyehardfanAU 2,117]

35 minutes ago, AUAlumnTN said:

You do realize just exactly how BAD UT was before Heupel got there, yeah? We haven't been setting the world on fire, no but Auburn is well above .500 with a division title and multiple wins over Alabama during that stretch. During the same span, Tennessee is 10 games UNDER .500 in SEC play, suffered multiple losing seasons, and had a three game losing streak to VANDERBILT at one point.

There is no difference between 6-6 and 8-4.  If we're not competitive for championships then we're behind.

[AUAlumnTN 211]

42 minutes ago, dyehardfanAU said:

There is no difference between 6-6 and 8-4.  If we're not competitive for championships then we're behind.

Seriously? There is ABSOLUTELY a difference between 8-4 and 6-6 and there is a world of difference between where Auburn was when Gus was fired and where UT was when Pruitt was fired.

Edited October 12, 2022 by AUAlumnTN

[dyehardfanAU 2,117]

5 hours ago, AUAlumnTN said:

Seriously? There is ABSOLUTELY a difference between 8-4 and 6-6 and there is a world of difference between where Auburn was when Gus was fired and where UT was when Pruitt was fired.

Nah, they're the same.  Neither is a competitive team.