College Football 2020 (merged threads again)

[AUsince72 11,084]

2 hours ago, gr82be said:

I would think he would still be paid regardless. I know what you mean about the talk about Gus and I know you didn't always care for it. Thanks for being a good sport. I really do like Gus and I keep hoping...well you know. 

That's okay.  He'll be fine once he gets his $1000 relief check from the gov't.

 

[gr82be 14,423]

3 minutes ago, AUsince72 said:

That's okay.  He'll be fine once he gets his $1000 relief check from the gov't.

 

Millionaires won't be eligible for the relief so it could get tight for him. 

[KnightTiger 205]

alabama now has 78 confirmed cases Dr. Deborah Birch said the number of people diagnosed in the U.S. will most likely dramatically increase during the next  four-five days as it is a five-six day run of tests during a 24-48 hour span and that curves will not be stable till sometime next week"

 

some of these cases have active a few weeks prior to testing some could've already passed idk. but ^ there you have it from a task force member

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

8 hours ago, Mike4AU said:

I’m not taking sides in this kerfuffle, but you facepalmed him (not downvoted). 
 

Stay safe, everyone. 

Yep. So by Gwill's way of thinking I owe him a down vote😀

[gr82be 14,423]

10 minutes ago, Proud Tiger said:

Yep. So by Gwill's way of thinking I owe him a down vote😀

I'm curious about something. Would a down vote be a thumbs up below the equator? 

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

1 minute ago, gr82be said:

I'm curious about something. Would a down vote be a thumbs up below the equator? 

Great question. I guess not since they refer to Australia as "down under."

[AUBwins 10,075]

9 hours ago, GwillMac6 said:

I think it will be played. But I don't think there will be any fans in the stands. At least not at first. But hey some form of football is better than no football!!!

Let's reschedule all our away games to the first half of these season and play at home when these fans are back 😃

[WarDamnDoc 390]

Pulmonary/Critical Care fellow here (doc near the end of my specialization training). Glad you guys are mostly taking this seriously- it’s the real deal. Infectivity is high. The current mortality estimates are probably biased to the high side, but it looks like we’re talking about a death rate of AT LEAST 1% and maybe even closer to 3.5% - a rate which is shockingly high for something this easily transmissible. We aren’t anywhere close to the crest of the wave yet so it’s hard to say exactly where we’re headed, especially months down the road. I think there’s still a reasonable chance we have a football season if we take the social distancing seriously and some of the treatments in the pipeline pan out like we hope (I’m betting on Remdesevir). But regardless, we’re in for a rough couple of months at a minimum and I highly doubt we see any delayed Spring practices/games. There are some CDC models that predict we may have interval outbreaks for over a year... let’s hope we don’t see that reality come to pass. I hope we’re all reminiscing about how weird this was in June or July, but there is a real chance it will still be active on a major scale.

Stay safe everyone- AND STAY HOME!

[woodford 3,655]

On 3/17/2020 at 5:22 PM, KnightTiger said:

speculation on another board that the season could possibly be shortened to September/October where only conferences games are played and that states that have had high cases possibly may not field a team  example - Syracuse, Rutgers, Washington, Washington State, USC

So it would be like any other year?

[WDE_OxPx_2010 5,297]

8 hours ago, WarDamnDoc said:

Pulmonary/Critical Care fellow here (doc near the end of my specialization training). Glad you guys are mostly taking this seriously- it’s the real deal. Infectivity is high. The current mortality estimates are probably biased to the high side, but it looks like we’re talking about a death rate of AT LEAST 1% and maybe even closer to 3.5% - a rate which is shockingly high for something this easily transmissible. We aren’t anywhere close to the crest of the wave yet so it’s hard to say exactly where we’re headed, especially months down the road. I think there’s still a reasonable chance we have a football season if we take the social distancing seriously and some of the treatments in the pipeline pan out like we hope (I’m betting on Remdesevir). But regardless, we’re in for a rough couple of months at a minimum and I highly doubt we see any delayed Spring practices/games. There are some CDC models that predict we may have interval outbreaks for over a year... let’s hope we don’t see that reality come to pass. I hope we’re all reminiscing about how weird this was in June or July, but there is a real chance it will still be active on a major scale.

Stay safe everyone- AND STAY HOME!

I'm seeing the same- several mini outbreaks come and go until the treatment or vaccine arrives by fall/winter.

Thank you for your knowledge and efforts during this moment in history.

[McLoofus 35,182]

8 hours ago, WarDamnDoc said:

Pulmonary/Critical Care fellow here

Huh. I've never heard of that kind of journalist.

I mean, since they're the ones making all this ado about nothing.

/s

[AUsince72 11,084]

On 3/17/2020 at 5:09 PM, AUsince72 said:

Actual experts & doctors give out info & it's "hysteria". 

Lebron James says it and it's "oh, we gotta listen to him"....

Okay, just as I predicted a few days ago.

Maybe a few more will take it seriously now.

https://www.foxnews.com/sports/lebron-james-approves-stay-at-home-directive-coronavirus

LeBron James approves Los Angeles' 'stay at home' directive amid coronavirus outbreak

[alexava 6,973]

12 hours ago, WarDamnDoc said:

Pulmonary/Critical Care fellow here (doc near the end of my specialization training). Glad you guys are mostly taking this seriously- it’s the real deal. Infectivity is high. The current mortality estimates are probably biased to the high side, but it looks like we’re talking about a death rate of AT LEAST 1% and maybe even closer to 3.5% - a rate which is shockingly high for something this easily transmissible. We aren’t anywhere close to the crest of the wave yet so it’s hard to say exactly where we’re headed, especially months down the road. I think there’s still a reasonable chance we have a football season if we take the social distancing seriously and some of the treatments in the pipeline pan out like we hope (I’m betting on Remdesevir). But regardless, we’re in for a rough couple of months at a minimum and I highly doubt we see any delayed Spring practices/games. There are some CDC models that predict we may have interval outbreaks for over a year... let’s hope we don’t see that reality come to pass. I hope we’re all reminiscing about how weird this was in June or July, but there is a real chance it will still be active on a major scale.

Stay safe everyone- AND STAY HOME!

You say “infectivity “ is high. I think this is the main problem. Is there a way to quantity this in terms we all can understand? Say compared to the flu or other familiar infections. Or is that even known? 

[passthebiscuits 6,845]

On 3/20/2020 at 11:32 AM, alexava said:

You say “infectivity “ is high. I think this is the main problem. Is there a way to quantity this in terms we all can understand? Say compared to the flu or other familiar infections. Or is that even known? 

I’m by no means an expert. The R-naught of COVID-19 is about 2.2.  That means for every 1 person with COVID-19, he/she will likely infect over 2 others. That’s similar to smallpox. Seasonal flu has an R-Naught of 1.

So virulence is more than flu, less than SARS at this point. 
 

Trouble is sheer math...many people get it at the same time, certain percentage sick at same time, certain percentage need hospitals and ICUs at the same time, increased percentage die. Hence the importance of social distancing. 

[WarDamnDoc 390]

10 hours ago, alexava said:

You say “infectivity “ is high. I think this is the main problem. Is there a way to quantity this in terms we all can understand? Say compared to the flu or other familiar infections. Or is that even known? 

Excellent question. The R0 is about ~ 2.2-2.5 based on the Wuhan data. That means each person infected initially spread it to 2-3 others, which leads to exponential growth. Some countries were able to dramatically decrease this with their quarantining- we are hoping to do the same.

For comparison, the R0 of the flu (in modern times, with the vaccine) is about 1.3 in recent years.

[WarDamnDoc 390]

5 hours ago, passthebiscuits said:

I’m Emergency Med, so by no means an expert. The R-naught of COVID-19 is about 2.2.  That means for every 1 person with COVID-19, he/she will likely infect over 2 others. That’s similar to smallpox. Seasonal flu has an R-Naught of 1.

So virulence is more than flu, less than SARS at this point. 
 

Trouble is sheer math...many people get it at the same time, certain percentage sick at same time, certain percentage need hospitals and ICUs at the same time, increased percentage die. Hence the importance of social distancing. 

EXACTLY THIS! We do not have the capacity to deal with the influx of cases if this pattern of spread continues. There are only so many of us around and the real danger is our system being overwhelmed to a point that the quality of care we are able to provide falters. I’m optimistic that we’ll avoid this scenario in most of the country if everyone takes the social distancing seriously. But we’re all relying on each other to do the right thing. So stay home!

[TigerHorn 1,351]

1 hour ago, WarDamnDoc said:

Excellent question. The R0 is about ~ 2.2-2.5 based on the Wuhan data. That means each person infected initially spread it to 2-3 others, which leads to exponential growth. Some countries were able to dramatically decrease this with their quarantining- we are hoping to do the same.

For comparison, the R0 of the flu (in modern times, with the vaccine) is about 1.3 in recent years.

Not a doc, but I have spent a lot of time with mathematical modeling and I've been to most of the places where the spread has been the worst. The one aspect I would point out is that the US population is vastly more spread out on both the micro and macro levels than any of the hotspots. Until you've been to Seoul or any Chinese megacity, you just can't appreciate how dense the population is. You also won't realize how unique to the US culture the concept of "personal space" is. People in Europe think nothing of talking to you 6 inches from your face. People in most of Asia have no problem with someone physically crawling over them for a bus or train seat, the sole exception being hyper-polite, fastidiously clean Japan (where the impact has been very minimal, despite high population density). Italy combined the concept of no personal space with a direct travel pipeline to the most infected parts of China, thanks to their collaboration on the Silk Road project, and an aged population - worst possible case combo. Then tack on heavily government controlled socialized medicine in Italy as well. 

My point is that "social distancing" is easy for Americans, both conceptually and physically. I think that in itself will damp the spread here. I wonder how much those things will affect R0?

I also think that, as CPD put it, Hindsight is 50-50 wrt to our national reaction here. It wasn't perfect, but it has been solid in many respects. 

[alexava 6,973]

7 hours ago, WarDamnDoc said:

Excellent question. The R0 is about ~ 2.2-2.5 based on the Wuhan data. That means each person infected initially spread it to 2-3 others, which leads to exponential growth. Some countries were able to dramatically decrease this with their quarantining- we are hoping to do the same.

For comparison, the R0 of the flu (in modern times, with the vaccine) is about 1.3 in recent years.

I assume this R0 is similar to pH in mathematic terms? It’s more than just twice as bad? 
 

 

[KnightTiger 205]

a lot of folks are predicting the peak for the u.s to be april/may

[WDE_OxPx_2010 5,297]

5 hours ago, KnightTiger said:

a lot of folks are predicting the peak for the u.s to be april/may

Peak will be this week and next, best case.

April-May peak would be a disaster

[passthebiscuits 6,845]

29 minutes ago, WDE_OxPx_2010 said:

Peak will be this week and next, best case.

April-May peak would be a disaster

Yes we are hoping this week coming up and the next are the onslaught.

[Rednilla 5,391]

As far as the football season is concerned, I'm more concerned about a second wave of the virus hitting in the mid-late fall when it cools down some if we haven't found a vaccine.

[aubiefifty 16,777]

here i am getting the crud. i hope it is sinus and allergies but who knows. i will not be leaving the house until i am sure.

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

On 3/19/2020 at 4:18 PM, KnightTiger said:

the only time(s) both Auburn and Alabama did not field a football team was during the Spanish Flu and both World Wars! that said id say these next 2-3 weeks should be critical if this social distancing works then we should be looking at a whole month of April and possibly May  of no new reported cases! however blackeye is teens rushing to the beach for spring break with no clue of how many people theyve infected in that time span BTW  smart move on Ivey and the rest on closing the beaches

Interesting you refer to the Spanish flu. Another  POTUS referred to a flu as the Middle East flu. But today some people and the media go nuts at the current virus being called the Chinese flu. 

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

21 hours ago, passthebiscuits said:

I’m by no means an expert. The R-naught of COVID-19 is about 2.2.  That means for every 1 person with COVID-19, he/she will likely infect over 2 others. That’s similar to smallpox. Seasonal flu has an R-Naught of 1.

So virulence is more than flu, less than SARS at this point. 
 

Trouble is sheer math...many people get it at the same time, certain percentage sick at same time, certain percentage need hospitals and ICUs at the same time, increased percentage die. Hence the importance of social distancing. 

What do you think about WHO? I read where the head honcho doesn't have a real medical background...…..as contrasted to the people on the Pence Team.

An article FWIW:

https://www.foxnews.com/world/coronavirus-china-who-chief-relationship-trouble