Don't jump back on the Bus just yet...Scarbinsky

[aubiefifty 16,719]

1. Sports

AL.com All-Access: Don't jump back on the Gus Bus just yet

Posted on October 23, 2017 at 9:58 AM

 

 

 

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Gallery: Auburn defense holds off Arkansas

 

 

 

 

 

 

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By Kevin Scarbinsky

kscarbinsky@al.com

As you know by now, Auburn went to Arkansas over the weekend, and Gus Malzahn made himself right at home. He spanked Bret Bielema for the fourth time in five meetings, pulling the Tigers together nicely after the LSU collapse.

Of course he did.

This is what Malzahn does. This is who he is. He doesn't lose to bad teams, and often he bullies them, tricking you into thinking his team is better than it really is.

With a bye week ahead, Auburn at 6-2 overall and 4-1 in the SEC will enter November with a chance to win the SEC West at least. It's the fourth time in his five years as head coach Malzahn has put the Tigers in contention two months into the season.

That's the good news, but before you jump back on the Gus Bus, you should be aware of a startling stat. In its last 10 SEC games against teams that finished the season with nine or more wins, Auburn is 1-9.

That's not the end of the world or a coaching tenure, but you can see it from there.

 

Auburn avoids mistake vs. Arkansas that cost LSU game

One week removed from a disastrous second half against LSU, Auburn had its highest-scoring quarter of the season after halftime against Arkansas.

 

That run of Malzahn and his team getting put in their place by the big dogs started with the 2014 season. When's the last time Auburn beat an SEC team that finished with nine or more wins? Nov. 1, 2014 at Ole Miss.

The Tigers have lost their last eight games against SEC teams that would finish the season with nine or more wins. That streak includes three losses to Alabama, two losses to Georgia and one loss each to LSU, Ole Miss and Mississippi State teams headed to nine wins or more.

 

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Which means the Tigers have not been at their best against the better teams on the schedule.

Who's left on Auburn's SEC schedule? Texas A&M, which is now 5-2, 7-0 Georgia and 8-0 Alabama. The Bulldogs and Crimson Tide each should blow past the nine-win mark with ease. The improving Aggies have a shot to avoid their own typical late-season collapse.

It sounds like a clever oversimplification to say that Auburn is a program that's good against bad teams and bad against good teams, but the numbers don't lie.

 

Statistically speaking: AU 29th total, scoring offense

Auburn is in the top 30 in both total and scoring offense.

 

Hanging 52 points and 629 yards on defenseless Arkansas means little in the big picture. That picture won't change until Auburn can put one more point on the scoreboard than Georgia or Alabama or both.

If Auburn is going to end this negative trend, if it's going to turn the Iron Bowl into the SEC West Championship Game for the first time since 2013, it'll have to beat both Texas A&M and Georgia. One of those tasks looks a lot more doable than the other.

Narratives can change, and Malzahn has given himself the opportunity once again to change his own. If he is who the last three years have shown him to be, Auburn may win in College Station, but the Tigers will have no prayer at Amen Corner.

 

 

1. Sports

[LKEEL75 2,566]

[aujeff11 6,243]

29 minutes ago, aubiefifty said:

That's the good news, but before you jump back on the Gus Bus, you should be aware of a startling stat. In its last 10 SEC games against teams that finished the season with nine or more wins, Auburn is 1-9.

[WarTim 3,456]

Skarb... another uat tool. 

[bigbird 60,370]

3 minutes ago, WarTim said:

Skarb... another uat tool. 

True...but he isn't wrong.

[1auburn1 1,110]

2 minutes ago, bigbird said:

True...but he isn't wrong.

Exactly

[aujeff11 6,243]

I’m liking the blue Auburn coaching polo. Where Can I find?

[AU64 10,122]

9 minutes ago, WarTim said:

Skarb... another uat tool. 

I bet he was impressed when bama  beat them 41-9 though.....

[Dan-0 479]

At this point, it's hard to ignore the parallels between last year's slow start, recovery, and end-of-the-year collapse. Beating Mizzou, MS St, Ole Miss, and Arky is great but all of those teams are down. We are about to get to the meat of the schedule where Gus has struggled since 2013. The jury is still out on whether or not we can break the cycle that has been in place since 2014. Nobody should be thinking about getting back on the Gus Bus until after the Bama game.

[TigerFanAU 586]

Gus, if you're reading this, this is the year to shut Scarb up. You have all the talent and tools of UA and UGA, with a much better QB than both. Please end this terrible trend of losing to power schools!!

[NoALtiger 3,849]

He said we are good at beating bad teams-anyone wanna disagree with that? I mean, Scarbs is a tool but my goodness, Gus is what he is and Scarbinsky isn’t saying anything different what many..many..many folks here haven’t said often.

[BJCrawford 1,568]

I’m curious .....how many teams face the kind of schedule (ten teams that have 9+ wins) and come out in those at say 5-5? (Not counting Saban, Dabo and Meyer ). Real question and not a standing up for Gus one. 

[AURealist 2,185]

I don't read Scarb, but he's telling the truth here.  Only those still on the Gus Bus or those secretly waiting at the next bus stop for another ride are going to have their nose bent over this article.

Still anticipating much sunshine-pumping 'National Championship' hilarity if somehow Gus proves victorious in College Station.

What's our W-L record against Power 5 teams that ended the season with a winning record?

 

[gravejd 3,269]

Thanks Scarb for the insightful article you just shared with everyone. You say Gus has performed poorly against AUs rivals? Wow thats some good info to have 

[aubearcat 2,132]

34 minutes ago, aujeff11 said:

I’m liking the blue Auburn coaching polo. Where Can I find?

They had some in Hibbetts not too awfully long ago. 

[TigerFanAU 586]

1 minute ago, AURealist said:

Still anticipating much sunshine-pumping 'National Championship' hilarity if somehow Gus proves victorious in College Station.

I don't know. I feel like the LSU loss hit the AU-faithful on a level it hasn't been hit before during Gus's tenure. I know we have the talent to win it all, but can the head coach maximize it to its fullest potential? No excuses this year Gus.

[WarDamnEagleWDE 12,737]

Ouch. 

[Beaker 2,457]

I suspect Scarbinsky hits this forum for material to write about.  We practically wrote the article for him.

 

[aubiefifty 16,719]

just for the record i try when i post articles i do so without love nor hate for gus. i have no agenda tho i do hope for our players i hope gus wins out.

[doverstutts 1,643]

7 minutes ago, Beaker said:

I suspect Scarbinsky hits this forum for material to write about.  We practically wrote the article for him.

 

you noticed that too, huh....i considered scarbo the only honest sportswriter outside the AU beat writers.....did he really get some of his material from here?.....i think he did

[ArgoEagle 1,767]

Please raise your hand if you think Scarb made any valid points other than the same ones that we have been discussing since the Clemson loss. We've already figured all this out way before you did, but thanks anyway Scarb.

[TNtiger55 6]

We don't have the OL to give our QB time to beat Georgia and Bama.  No way we get the miracle catch and kick6 again.

[BigWhiskey91 632]

Even if we win out, there will still be many that are unwilling to get back on board. After 4 seasons of tendencies being built, he has yet to fully adjust in year 5. 

While having success against teams you should isn’t now something to brag about, I wouldn’t say it’s worthless. Obviously to have a good team, you need to have the ability to put away lesser competition. 

What has everyone upset isn’t the losses, it’s the way we lost the games. Both Clemson games were winnable games that felt like our staff used them as a testing ground for random stuff on offense. The LSU loss was the absolute worst loss for many reasons. It was the final straw, but for any fan it was the biggest by far. 

The failure to rep back QBs in “garbage time” forced us to put complete question marks against our rivals 2 years in a row. While the injury excuse is valid for a loss, the lack of having a prepared backup is also a valid counter.

Ill never fault Gus or any coach for smashing the weaker teams, but if they fail to do so, the criticism is warranted. Should Auburn win out and finish 10-2, we would still look at the LSU game as a whiskey tango foxtrot game. That loss could single handily keep us out of the Sec Champ (in this scenario), and keep us from a playoff chance.

It’s going to take consistent performance that leads to success, and not many are willing to give him time to try to fix it. He had plenty of chances to make hires to bolster his staff but went back to his past to bring in Gus Buddies. He derserves every ounce of blame and all of the consequences that comes his way. I wanted him to work out, but  it seems like every step forward we made in recruiting and improving the defense, we took equal steps back on offense and utilization. 

[keesler 5,924]

19 minutes ago, TNtiger55 said:

We don't have the OL to give our QB time to beat Georgia and Bama.  No way we get the miracle catch and kick6 again.

I imagine ole Chief is going to try to exploit that in College Station next week.  

[tbone1430 1,346]

4 minutes ago, FullBloodedTiger91 said:

Should Auburn win out and finish 10-2, we would still look at the LSU game as a whiskey tango foxtrot game. That loss could single handily keep us out of the Sec Champ (in this scenario), and keep us from a playoff chance.

Think about this. Last year Penn st. was in a similar situation. Two losses but won their conference and finished strong. If we were to win out including the SECCG we would be sitting at 11-2. The turds would theoretically have one loss. Unless they lose another game I’m afraid even if we were to win out the precedent was set last year that teams with more hype (Ohio st.) and 1 less loss even without a conference title can slip in over a 2 loss conference champ.