Chances of a classic Darkhorse year?

[Viper 3,132]

On 3/26/2021 at 10:38 PM, AUght2win said:

17th in the AP Preseason. Pretty disrespectful for all the talent we had returning.

That’s not being “laughed at.” Ranked is being respected. 

[Tigerpro2a 5,650]

On 3/23/2021 at 2:24 PM, Eagle Eye 7 said:

And finally Pat was allowed to have to much influence on Bo the first two years, probably to a deal he made with Gus to bring Bo to Auburn

Is there any evidence whatsoever to support this claim? Gus did a lot of things wrong, but I don't see even Gus letting someones parent have influence on him especially as paranoid as Gus is. I think Gus was very equipped to ruin Bo on his own without Daddy's help.

[japantiger 4,051]

I think this is more of a Pat Dye year one type team.  

 

As for record:

 

W

Akron

Alabama State

Ga State

Arkansas

Miss State

South Carolina

 

L

Penn State

LSU 

Georgia

TAMU

Alabama

 

Tossup

Ole Miss

 

Maybe 7 wins...as long as they play hard; hit people; improve thru the year; that will be enough.  

 

[steeleagle 2,945]

25 minutes ago, japantiger said:

I think this is more of a Pat Dye year one type team.  

 

As for record:

 

W

Akron

Alabama State

Ga State

Arkansas

Miss State

South Carolina

 

L

Penn State

LSU 

Georgia

TAMU

Alabama

 

Tossup

Ole Miss

 

Maybe 7 wins...as long as they play hard; hit people; improve thru the year; that will be enough.  

 

So you don't see us winning either of the home games against GA and Alabama?

I think we win one of them. I think that will give a Harsin coached team the boost to say we are on our way to being competitive w the current strong teams.

If somehow he can win one of these away games LSU/Penn St, it will really show Harsin is ahead of schedule and can coach against the better teams.

But as someone says, we could be a first year coached team like Pat Dye's first one. Hard and competitive, but about .500. 

It will depend on not getting key injuries to our best offensive players, bc if Tank or Bo goes down, we are so much weaker w their backups.

 

[AUApostle 7,651]

68.5%

That's up from 24.75% chances I calculated under Gus. 

[Hank2020 3,208]

17 minutes ago, AUDevil said:

68.5%

That's up from 24.75% chances I calculated under Gus. 

You must be AU engineering type.

[The Freak 2,528]

2 minutes ago, Hank2020 said:

You must be AU engineering type.

Needs more decimals for that.  For accuracy, ya know?

[W.E.D 11,070]

3 hours ago, steeleagle said:

So you don't see us winning either of the home games against GA and Alabama?

In any preseason line we'd probably be double digit dogs vs both.  We're severely out talented.

[japantiger 4,051]

3 hours ago, steeleagle said:

So you don't see us winning either of the home games against GA and Alabama?

I think we win one of them. I think that will give a Harsin coached team the boost to say we are on our way to being competitive w the current strong teams.

If somehow he can win one of these away games LSU/Penn St, it will really show Harsin is ahead of schedule and can coach against the better teams.

But as someone says, we could be a first year coached team like Pat Dye's first one. Hard and competitive, but about .500. 

It will depend on not getting key injuries to our best offensive players, bc if Tank or Bo goes down, we are so much weaker w their backups.

 

Nope...both of them own us.  Don't see that changing.  There are no talent additions to this team that would indicate it will be more competitive against either.  Harsin should make them more competitive; but the overall talent gap will be marginally worse vs last year due to the poor recruiting class coming in.  More competitive doesn't mean a W.  

We haven't beaten LSU there since Lincoln was President.  Certainly don 't see that happening.  PSU, early in the year on the road...don't see a W.  

If Tank goes down; yes, that would be pretty bad as he is an every down SEC caliber back.  There don't appear to be any others on the roster.  As for Bo; his past says we would fare about as well with a Freshman at QB (comp %, happy feet, inability to throw on the move, inability to set his feet, bailing on the pocket, etc.).  I just want to see a QB that shows he can learn and grow.  Bo has not done that to date.  

 

 

[AUpreacherman22 3,888]

5 hours ago, japantiger said:

I think this is more of a Pat Dye year one type team.  

 

As for record:

 

W

Akron

Alabama State

Ga State

Arkansas

Miss State

South Carolina

 

L

Penn State

LSU 

Georgia

TAMU

Alabama

 

Tossup

Ole Miss

 

Maybe 7 wins...as long as they play hard; hit people; improve thru the year; that will be enough.  

 

I would throw LSU and PSU into that toss up category.  And we have a fighting chance against TAMU as long as their coached by Jimbo.  They will usually be overrated and underperform.  So that would give us 6 high percentage wins, 4 in the neighborhood of 50/50, and 2 very likely losses.  If we split the difference on those 4 “toss ups”, that’s an 8-4 season and I think a good start to the Harsin era.

Im sticking to my belief (that goes against the AU trend) that we won’t see a high level of success until year 3 (2023 season), and probably not until a year or two after that.  There are some big learning curves for our guys, some roster holes, culture change, and other issues to address that just take time.  ALL of the former coaches who had early success were flukes (Tot, Gene, and Gus) Tubs level of success and fluke status in 2000 are both up for debate.   I’m not interested in another fluke.  I want to see an elite program built at AU.  And that’s just going to take some time.  

[Hank2020 3,208]

1 hour ago, AUpreacherman22 said:

I would throw LSU and PSU into that toss up category.  And we have a fighting chance against TAMU as long as their coached by Jimbo.  They will usually be overrated and underperform.  So that would give us 6 high percentage wins, 4 in the neighborhood of 50/50, and 2 very likely losses.  If we split the difference on those 4 “toss ups”, that’s an 8-4 season and I think a good start to the Harsin era.

Im sticking to my belief (that goes against the AU trend) that we won’t see a high level of success until year 3 (2023 season), and probably not until a year or two after that.  There are some big learning curves for our guys, some roster holes, culture change, and other issues to address that just take time.  ALL of the former coaches who had early success were flukes (Tot, Gene, and Gus) Tubs level of success and fluke status in 2000 are both up for debate.   I’m not interested in another fluke.  I want to see an elite program built at AU.  And that’s just going to take some time.  

I don’t understand the huge knock on Fisher. He beat us for a championship and then had aTm knocking on CFP last year.  I also hope we beat the snot out of them.

[AUght2win 6,852]

These darkhorse years usually have a catalyst win - a hard fought, splash victory against a big time opponent that kicks us into a different gear. 

In 2013 it was at #7 TAMU (game 7). In 2010 it's really a 2 game stretch. The 65 point game against #12 Arkansas is my vote (game 7), but the next week against #6 LSU cemented that we were a team of destiny. In 2004 it was early - week 3 against #5 LSU. 

This year, looking at the slate, the catalyst won't be PSU or LSU - too early and not ranked high enough. It'll have to be UGA.

Problem is, our schedule doesn't set us up to win that game. In other years, we had breathing room to prep for the big catalyst games. In 2021, we don't. 

In 2013: Ole Miss, Western Carolina, then at TAMU.

In 2010: ULM, at Kentucky, then Arkansas.

In 2004: ULM, at Miss State, then LSU.

In 2021: At Penn State. A week break. At LSU. Then UGA.

We'll be fatigued from two huge, recent road games at PSU and LSU. It'll be hard to even go into the UGA game unbeaten, much less have the emotional energy to pull out a W. 

However, considering all that, if we DO escape UGA 6-0. Look out.

[cole256 17,084]

1 hour ago, AUght2win said:

These darkhorse years usually have a catalyst win - a hard fought, splash victory against a big time opponent that kicks us into a different gear. 

In 2013 it was at #7 TAMU (game 7). In 2010 it's really a 2 game stretch. The 65 point game against #12 Arkansas is my vote (game 7), but the next week against #6 LSU cemented that we were a team of destiny. In 2004 it was early - week 3 against #5 LSU. 

This year, looking at the slate, the catalyst won't be PSU or LSU - too early and not ranked high enough. It'll have to be UGA.

Problem is, our schedule doesn't set us up to win that game. In other years, we had breathing room to prep for the big catalyst games. In 2021, we don't. 

In 2013: Ole Miss, Western Carolina, then at TAMU.

In 2010: ULM, at Kentucky, then Arkansas.

In 2004: ULM, at Miss State, then LSU.

In 2021: At Penn State. A week break. At LSU. Then UGA.

We'll be fatigued from two huge, recent road games at PSU and LSU. It'll be hard to even go into the UGA game unbeaten, much less have the emotional energy to pull out a W. 

However, considering all that, if we DO escape UGA 6-0. Look out.

2010 I say the Clemson game....but the arky one was huge like you said. I even remember the play in the arky game to me. It's when cam ran the safety over. After he didn't give the smile and all of that. He walked over to bynes and fairly with a scowl and just stared them down......he told everybody right that we were for real without saying a word

[Win4AU 4,053]

I could see Auburn beating Penn State and LSU.  Penn State struggled mightily last season.  I just don't trust LSU being good.  That Florida game was something else but overall they weren't close for most of the season.  I don't think Auburn will beat Alabama or Georgia but I think they'll scare one of them.  Alabama is replacing a lot on offense and if Auburn can get a full stadium for that game then watch out.  Texas A&M will all depend on how their new QB does.    8-4 with a chance at 9-4 with the bowl win would be a tremendous year 1.  Something about year 1 though.  Terry 21 straight.  Tubbs only had 1 loss in games that Leard wasn't hurt in 99 and West Champs in 2000.  We all know what Chiz and Gus did in their first couple seasons.   

[aucanucktiger 1,794]

We historically and almost without exception pull off amazing things quickly with new football coaches, don't count us out from anything. 

[AUght2win 6,852]

Odds at LSU may look a looooooot better if Orgeron is canned. That would instantly cause an implosion on that situation. 

[AUwent 3,754]

On 3/29/2021 at 3:13 PM, japantiger said:

Nope...both of them own us.  Don't see that changing.  There are no talent additions to this team that would indicate it will be more competitive against either.  Harsin should make them more competitive; but the overall talent gap will be marginally worse vs last year due to the poor recruiting class coming in.  More competitive doesn't mean a W.  

We haven't beaten LSU there since Lincoln was President.  Certainly don 't see that happening.  PSU, early in the year on the road...don't see a W.  

If Tank goes down; yes, that would be pretty bad as he is an every down SEC caliber back.  There don't appear to be any others on the roster.  As for Bo; his past says we would fare about as well with a Freshman at QB (comp %, happy feet, inability to throw on the move, inability to set his feet, bailing on the pocket, etc.).  I just want to see a QB that shows he can learn and grow.  Bo has not done that to date.  

 

 

I had no idea Abraham Lincoln was president in 1999. But yes, playing competitively in our losses should be a primary goal. Get to six (regular season) this year, get to eight (regular season) next year, and after that, at least nine (again, regular season) should be the goal.

 

[aucanucktiger 1,794]

2023 is our year. 

[AUwent 3,754]

1 hour ago, aucanucktiger said:

2023 is our year. 

We get Vandy from the east and Cal-Berkeley out of conference. Who knows roster-wise (Tank will likely be in the NFL by then) but schedule-wise it sets up beautifully.

[eaglenest 332]

On 3/29/2021 at 10:15 AM, steeleagle said:

So you don't see us winning either of the home games against GA and Alabama?

I think we win one of them. I think that will give a Harsin coached team the boost to say we are on our way to being competitive w the current strong teams.

If somehow he can win one of these away games LSU/Penn St, it will really show Harsin is ahead of schedule and can coach against the better teams.

But as someone says, we could be a first year coached team like Pat Dye's first one. Hard and competitive, but about .500. 

It will depend on not getting key injuries to our best offensive players, bc if Tank or Bo goes down, we are so much weaker w their backups.

 

running back maybe, quarterback, I have to disagree, Garnet, Davis were 4* question for you, who had a better season last year willis or Bo? and explain if you will why you think we will be "weaker" if Nix goes down.

[eaglenest 332]

On 3/29/2021 at 1:31 PM, W.E.D said:

In any preseason line we'd probably be double digit dogs vs both.  We're severely out talented.

was cincy vastly out talented? was south Carolina vastly out talented was Florida vastly out talented and neither of those schools has more talent than Auburn. Georgia lost to a will Muschamp coach team and Florida in Mullin 2nd year and should have lost to cincy in there bowl game.

[W.E.D 11,070]

4 hours ago, eaglenest said:

was cincy vastly out talented? was south Carolina vastly out talented was Florida vastly out talented and neither of those schools has more talent than Auburn. Georgia lost to a will Muschamp coach team and Florida in Mullin 2nd year and should have lost to cincy in there bowl game.

You're more than welcome to hand pick random game to try and make a point. 

BTW UGA won and we are probably on par with USC talent. UF is always loaded with talent. Those are some pretty awful examples. 

UF was ranked #6 in the year you're referring to. Lmao. Good effort. 

[eaglenest 332]

1 hour ago, W.E.D said:

You're more than welcome to hand pick random game to try and make a point. 

BTW UGA won and we are probably on par with USC talent. UF is always loaded with talent. Those are some pretty awful examples. 

UF was ranked #6 in the year you're referring to. Lmao. Good effort. 

Auburn problem is never talent, we had a clown as head coach and a fan base that help the clown in making sure sir Bo was the QB. UF was not consistenly winning SEC championship nor division, just because we are not man enough to beat UGA doesn't mean they have more talent then us, but, see Authur for that. Get back to me when UGA and UF win something notable, coaching is everything see west vance!!!

[DAG 33,995]

3 hours ago, W.E.D said:

You're more than welcome to hand pick random game to try and make a point. 

BTW UGA won and we are probably on par with USC talent. UF is always loaded with talent. Those are some pretty awful examples. 

UF was ranked #6 in the year you're referring to. Lmao. Good effort. 

We are ahead of  USCe on talent. They have always ranked lower than us in the composite 247  rankings, and the 2021 rankings are putrid. The other two recruit dang well and I am sure they both are ahead . 

[cole256 17,084]

7 hours ago, eaglenest said:

running back maybe, quarterback, I have to disagree, Garnet, Davis were 4* question for you, who had a better season last year willis or Bo? and explain if you will why you think we will be "weaker" if Nix goes down.

I'm not one of the Bo is the best qb ever guys but there would be a drop off in experience if nothing else. So if there was an in game switch I just would have to imagine that Bo would be the best option as opposed to throwing in a guy without any experience