Why Auburn beats PSU

[AuburnTiger4Life 2,225]

30 minutes ago, PSUPat said:

 

DL apparantly allows good running lanes - no.  They have been very stout against the run.  Wisconsin may have had a decent number of yards, even at that, it wasn't impressive by Wisconsin standards and the yards per carry were poor, they just ran it a ton of times because our offense gave them a million possessions.  This is a very strong run defense.

 

Idk about that. I saw some wide open lanes when I watched that game. Auburn’s OL isn’t as good as Wisconsin but Wisky also doesn’t have a Tank Bigsby or Jarquez Hunter. We also have a QB that can run unlike Wisky. 

[psufan25 21]

Good reading in most of this thread aside from the trolling earlier. Couple of quick things after reading through:

Clifford, while the PSU OC would not like him to run, has a lot of running ability if need be and is actually one of the faster guys on the team. Probably played one of his better and most efficient games of his career last week against BS, but I have too many bad memories of him making bad decisions in the pocket in previous years to just forget them after 1 good game. IF he can avoid throwing off his back foot and continue not turning the ball over I expect him to play very well. Huge dropoff at QB after Clifford, so fingers crossed he doesn't get hurt. Will look worse than the A&M offense last week if he does.

Even though PSU had a bunch of deep balls against Wisconsin, typically Yurcich offenses want to spread the ball around and get the ball out quickly. Especially against a linebacker group as good as Auburn's expect PSU to get the ball out quickly along the edge to Dotson #5 and Washington #3. Don't see PSU having too many deep shots in this game, similar to what they did against BS. PSU lacks proven depth at receiver so if an injury occurs it will have a big impact.

While PSU is pretty good at pass protection (Walker #53 LT is a first round pick candidate), they still struggle in run blocking (although better once they made the change at LG). For Cain #21 to have success they need to get him outside the tackles and away from the LBs if possible.

PSU has not really been able to involve the TE much despite the talent that is there, and I don't see that changing this game.

For defense, PSU is led on DL by Ebikiete #17, who is their best pass rusher and put up monster numbers vs Wisconsin. Luketa #40 made a switch from LB to DE over the offseason and has paid off as he has played very well in that role (while not starting). DTs have played decent against the run, however I think some improved play is capable with the talent there. One of the project DT starters Beamon #51 has been inactive the first 2 games with an off the field issue, not sure if he will return for this game. Lots of depth at DT, not a lot of depth at DE.

The LBs are led by the Mike LB Brooks #13. He was suspended for the first half of the BS game for targeting, and was replaced by #40 who is a huge dropoff in terms of play quality at the Mike position. The LBs in general play much better when #13 is in the game. Smith #12 is a freak athlete, but tends to find himself struggling in coverage when put in that position. Another position where quality depth is a concern.

The secondary has been touted as a strength for PSU, so far they haven't really been tested much so can't really speak much to them. Brisker #1 is an All-American caliber safety. Saw posted somewhere that he is a Soph, he is actually a JUCO transfer who is a RS SR. Lots of quality depth at all positions.

PSU has the same guy doing punting and kicking (Stout), as a punter he has been excellent, as a kicker he has left some to be desired. Classic case of trying to put too much leg on the ball when it isn't necessarily needed.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

3 hours ago, woodford said:

I’d like to see Shivers in the passing game. I think he could find a niche in the NFL as a guy who can do that. 

Two words: Darren Sproles

[PSUPat 126]

20 minutes ago, AuburnTiger4Life said:

Idk about that. I saw some wide open lanes when I watched that game. Auburn’s OL isn’t as good as Wisconsin but Wisky also doesn’t have a Tank Bigsby or Jarquez Hunter. We also have a QB that can run unlike Wisky. 

Wisconsin, an excellent running team, had 58 carries for 180 yards rushing.  That's an average of 3.1 yards per carry.  That's a whole lot of rushing attempts, which is a tribute to the fact that PSU could not sustain any offense.  But it's not exactly impressive what Wisconsin could do with it.  

 

[woodford 3,659]

15 minutes ago, psufan25 said:

Good reading in most of this thread aside from the trolling earlier. Couple of quick things after reading through:

Clifford, while the PSU OC would not like him to run, has a lot of running ability if need be and is actually one of the faster guys on the team. Probably played one of his better and most efficient games of his career last week against BS, but I have too many bad memories of him making bad decisions in the pocket in previous years to just forget them after 1 good game. IF he can avoid throwing off his back foot and continue not turning the ball over I expect him to play very well. Huge dropoff at QB after Clifford, so fingers crossed he doesn't get hurt. Will look worse than the A&M offense last week if he does.

Even though PSU had a bunch of deep balls against Wisconsin, typically Yurcich offenses want to spread the ball around and get the ball out quickly. Especially against a linebacker group as good as Auburn's expect PSU to get the ball out quickly along the edge to Dotson #5 and Washington #3. Don't see PSU having too many deep shots in this game, similar to what they did against BS. PSU lacks proven depth at receiver so if an injury occurs it will have a big impact.

While PSU is pretty good at pass protection (Walker #53 LT is a first round pick candidate), they still struggle in run blocking (although better once they made the change at LG). For Cain #21 to have success they need to get him outside the tackles and away from the LBs if possible.

PSU has not really been able to involve the TE much despite the talent that is there, and I don't see that changing this game.

For defense, PSU is led on DL by Ebikiete #17, who is their best pass rusher and put up monster numbers vs Wisconsin. Luketa #40 made a switch from LB to DE over the offseason and has paid off as he has played very well in that role (while not starting). DTs have played decent against the run, however I think some improved play is capable with the talent there. One of the project DT starters Beamon #51 has been inactive the first 2 games with an off the field issue, not sure if he will return for this game. Lots of depth at DT, not a lot of depth at DE.

The LBs are led by the Mike LB Brooks #13. He was suspended for the first half of the BS game for targeting, and was replaced by #40 who is a huge dropoff in terms of play quality at the Mike position. The LBs in general play much better when #13 is in the game. Smith #12 is a freak athlete, but tends to find himself struggling in coverage when put in that position. Another position where quality depth is a concern.

The secondary has been touted as a strength for PSU, so far they haven't really been tested much so can't really speak much to them. Brisker #1 is an All-American caliber safety. Saw posted somewhere that he is a Soph, he is actually a JUCO transfer who is a RS SR. Lots of quality depth at all positions.

PSU has the same guy doing punting and kicking (Stout), as a punter he has been excellent, as a kicker he has left some to be desired. Classic case of trying to put too much leg on the ball when it isn't necessarily needed.

This is nice. Welcome. It’s fun to poke fun but I enjoy intellectual football talk (if that exists)

[McLoofus 35,182]

3 minutes ago, PSUPat said:

Wisconsin, an excellent running team, had 58 carries for 180 yards rushing.  That's an average of 3.1 yards per carry.  That's a whole lot of rushing attempts, which is a tribute to the fact that PSU could not sustain any offense.  But it's not exactly impressive what Wisconsin could do with it.  

Fair enough, but also to be fair he didn't say that Wisconsin was impressive. He said that the lanes were there and they didn't hit them. 

By the way, Wisconsin only rushed for 165 YPG last season. (Any chance you want to ignore the fact that we only rushed for 163?)

I don't think there's any need to nitpick it. Y'all have a damned good defense and we're going to earn what we get. 

[CoffeeTiger 5,125]

I think our defense will remain tough and do a good job overall containing PSU  but the question, as it seemingly always is, will be can the offense deliver?

 

If we can prevent 3 and outs and if Bo nix doesn't get rattled and start throwing picks then we should probably be fine. A few 3 and outs, a turnover or two, the crowd really gets into it and our offense might not recover. 

Our running should be stout, but we'll have to have solid, consistent QB play to keep them honest or else the run game will be easy to contain. 

 

[eartotheground 13]

1 minute ago, CoffeeTiger said:

I think our defense will remain tough and do a good job overall containing PSU  but the question, as it seemingly always is, will be can the offense deliver?

 

If we can prevent 3 and outs and if Bo nix doesn't get rattled and start throwing picks then we should probably be fine. A few 3 and outs, a turnover or two, the crowd really gets into it and our offense might not recover. 

Our running should be stout, but we'll have to have solid, consistent QB play to keep them honest or else the run game will be easy to contain. 

 

this game has slugfest written all over it.

[cbo 7,854]

4 hours ago, ValleyTiger said:

Here's a stat for your Wednesday:

On Tank Bigsby's 24 rushes he's gained 241 yards with 159 coming after contact. Conversely on his 17 carries, Jarquez Hunter has gained 183 of his 257 yards before contact.

ETA - There's only been 3 negative rushes by Auburn's top 5 tailbacks (2 for Tank, 1 for Shivers).

Interesting stat. Although Hunter's 94 yards untouched kind of skews a small sample size. 

I think I remember Tank was at the top of the nation last year for yards after contact. Dude can break a tackle, for sure. But it also speaks to a lack of running room last season. 

[Beaker 2,457]

Comes down to coaching I believe, not players.

 

Both defenses are much better than the offenses considering both offenses have questions on both O Lines and both QBs have been inconsistent. 

Both offenses have marquee RBs who can take it to the house... they are so similar they could be twins. 

 

Which coaching staff can set their QB up for success and establish the run so the QB can settle in will be the difference.  Auburn has more tools in the box I think. 

I give the edge to Auburn because they have shown they can connect with the TE moreso (game one).   Also, I trust Bobo more than Yurcich.  Also, when Tank comes out, the beatings will begin...I am glad we have "600" as RB2.  

Will this advantage  be negated by a super loud crowd and on the road?   Doubt it - Auburn has played in some crazy loud places and they typically thrive at night.   This kinda evens out I am hoping.  I may be wrong.  We have a bunch of transfer players. 

Auburn should win a close one. 

[cole256 17,084]

Oh and I forgot also the game will be very dependent on if we can establish a pass rush.

It's not talked about but this game is big as far as seeing if we are legit as far as getting to the QB as well.

[homersapien 11,386]

9 hours ago, PSUPat said:

We were getting ran over in the 1st half.  In the sense that they moved the ball with difficulty, but we went absolutely nowhere.  30 some yards and 1 first down the entire half.  But they couldn't score and at halftime it was still 0-0 despite a HUGE disparity in stats.  

3rd quarter and into the 4th we completely dominated them, and took over the game.  Got a lead and then went all conservative and just held on for the final 7 or 8 minutes.  All of our offensive stats were bunched in a short period of time where we were boat racing them.  

Yeah, would like to see us do that for a whole game, lol.  Franklin preaches explosive plays, not TOP, 1st downs, etc.  In that vain.

Yards per play:

PSU - 5.8

Wis - 3.8

Explosive plays (20+ yards):

PSU - 5

Wis - 1

Turnovers:

PSU +3

I think the point is that +3 in turnovers is what allowed you to "dominate" them.

[homersapien 11,386]

3 hours ago, McLoofus said:

It is.

Are there different protocols for the vaccinated ("breakout" infection) vs. unvaccinated infections?

[weagl1 1,785]

12 hours ago, SRBautigerfan said:

These stats say Penn State was getting ran over and flat out got lucky.  Fortunately for them it counts just the same.

I watched it all and I wouldn’t necessarily call it lucky.  They stepped up big in the 4th quarter when the game was on the line.  Plus they got some big stops in the red zone.  And don’t forget they were in a very hostile environment against a very good opponent like Auburn will be in this weekend.  I give them a lot of credit for getting out of there with a W.  

[ValleyTiger 2,894]

53 minutes ago, cbo said:

Interesting stat. Although Hunter's 94 yards untouched kind of skews a small sample size. 

I think I remember Tank was at the top of the nation last year for yards after contact. Dude can break a tackle, for sure. But it also speaks to a lack of running room last season. 

Yup, that does skew Hunter's YBC, but if you take the 94 yarder away they both gained 80+ YBC for a total of 171. 

Limit the negative rushes and stay ahead of the chains.

[McLoofus 35,182]

29 minutes ago, homersapien said:

Are there different protocols for the vaccinated ("breakout" infection) vs. unvaccinated infections?

For infections, I don't think so. For close contact exposures, I don't know. But I do believe there are different rules for getting tested. Could be wrong.

[toddc 13,194]

 

[toddc 13,194]

 

[cbo 7,854]

22 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

For infections, I don't think so. For close contact exposures, I don't know. But I do believe there are different rules for getting tested. Could be wrong.

Pretty sure if you are not vaccinated, you are tested weekly. If you are vaccinated and asymptomatic, you are not tested.

Think the quarantine through contact tracing is only required if you are not vaccinated. Don't hold me to that though. Rules have changed a couple times. 

[Didba 5,256]

5 hours ago, McLoofus said:

If there's an Auburn player whose career has frustrated me as much as Worm's, then I can't think of his name right now. 

Dyer, Jovon Rob, Duke Williams.  Dyer hurts me to think about.

[McLoofus 35,182]

11 minutes ago, Didba said:

Dyer, Jovon Rob, Duke Williams.  Dyer hurts me to think about.

None of those guys lasted this long. Plus they actually played while they were here. 

[cole256 17,084]

Mario fannin for me. He was really good....he just couldn't hold on to the ball so he couldn't play but I had to see he's available all the time

[cbo 7,854]

8 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

None of those guys lasted this long. Plus they actually played while they were here. 

I'm very interested to see what his role is this year. I'm not sure he gets many traditional RB carries, behind Tank and Hunter. 

But no doubt he can be absolutely deadly in space. 

[fredst 9,064]

21 minutes ago, cole256 said:

Mario fannin for me. He was really good....he just couldn't hold on to the ball so he couldn't play but I had to see he's available all the time

Man, I loved Fannin’s skillset. He just could not hold on to the ball. His shoulder issues had to contribute but, damn, if he could have mastered ball security….

[McLoofus 35,182]

26 minutes ago, cbo said:

I'm very interested to see what his role is this year. I'm not sure he gets many traditional RB carries, behind Tank and Hunter. 

But no doubt he can be absolutely deadly in space. 

Yeah. This is the first season of his career where I think he might be behind two surefire NFL dudes for those every down duties.

Just hate he's missing such a huge game.